Sarah Guo × Vlad Tenev

Agentic Trading has attracted more than 150,000 accounts and about 30 million daily tool calls at the last disclosure; Tenev expects sophisticated users to drive early activity, while infrastructure load remains an open question.Robinhood Chain’s DeFi-enabled stock tokens let developers build stock-linked NFTs and meme-coin pairs, supporting Tenev’s forecast that tokens could become a default route to US equities in underserved countries.

Harry Stebbings

OpenAI’s proposed round shrank from $30 billion to $20 billion, with about $11 billion committed, as Rory compares its $1.25 trillion valuation with potentially public Anthropic at $1.5–$2 trillion.DoorDash’s reported $17 billion Instacart deal could combine cited 60% and 20% delivery shares, subject to antitrust clearance, while agents’ direct-order potential threatens platform take rates despite negligible volumes today.

Molly O'Shea × Shardul Shah

Bloomberg’s January 2026 figures put Index’s 2012 fund at 11X DPI versus a 1.5X industry average, and its $780 million 2015 growth fund at 5.1X.Shah says a roughly 25% valuation gap should not stop a deal; with model advances every few months unsettling AI retention, adaptable founders become central to durability.

Harry Stebbings × Erik Bernhardsson

Modal has reached $1 billion ARR after 15X growth in 12 months, yet capacity spending keeps cash flow negative.Its 25-neocloud pool, per-GPU-second pricing and adjacent products aim to smooth demand, retain customers and lift gross margins toward Bernhardsson’s 40–60% range.Watch whether 30–40% monthly growth can support buying roughly two to three times projected capacity as hardware-price timing remains unknowable.

Jenny Johnson × Molly O'Shea

Johnson favors shorter-term AI financing: today’s cash-generative borrowers differ from internet-bubble firms, but 20- or 30-year data-center debt risks locking in current chip and energy needs.Franklin Templeton’s late-stage SpaceX and Anthropic stakes seek missed IPO returns, but illiquid holdings may stay at 6%, 7% or 8% against a 15% limit.

Gavin Baker

Gavin Baker calls Anthropic’s S-1 an upside surprise: about half the Fortune 500 has adopted it, with encouraging profitability, cash generation and unit economics.Open-weight infrastructure companies outgrow OpenAI and Anthropic as demand broadens, while GPU rental prices rose daily in October and forward capacity remains expensive into 2027.Potential IPOs and higher cloud pricing could ease reliance on external financing for the 2027 build-out, though Baker is unsure whether external financing has peaked.

Tommy × Tarun Chitra

Robot Ventures led Nous Research’s $90 million round on Tarun Chitra’s thesis that Hermes can own AI’s user relationship through a packaged harness.Unsolicited forks by Chinese small-robot makers provide product-fit evidence grounded in Nous’s training, inference and context research.Enterprise distribution and token-order-flow rebates offer growth paths, but Tarun says demand is not secured until contracts are signed.

David Senra × Nik Storonsky

Revolut aims to lead in 100 countries with one configurable platform and ledger, adding 10–15 markets every one to two years.Storonsky says the shared system lowers operating costs, while applying for a UK banking license with seven or eight million customers led to an almost five-year process, making licensing central to mass adoption.

Andy Jassy × Ben Horowitz × Erik Torenberg

Amazon expects about $220 billion of 2026 CapEx, yet AWS capacity is sold out for 2026, largely for 2027, and partly for 2028; AWS AI has exceeded a $25 billion revenue run rate.Data centers require investment roughly two years before monetization, pressuring free cash flow; broader enterprise inference adoption also hinges on costs Jassy still calls an order of magnitude too high.

Harry Stebbings

Fund-scale return targets narrow venture: $50–100M seed valuations and $300–500K allocations can make an $18B winner immaterial.CoreWeave must fill capacity and fund buildout; Modal topped $1B run rate after raising $750M at $15.75B, amid unresolved inference competition.Town at $1B and Anduril at $90B highlight entry-price risk, with Anduril’s roughly 40x revenue demanding substantial execution.