Ben Horowitz

CoreWeave’s 953-basis-point CDS implies 16% annual default risk; fixed-price contracts and $35 billion more to raise leave Chamath’s team estimating a $5 billion break-even gap.Sacks sees demand holding, but financing costs remain a risk; Chamath urges Anthropic to raise at least $200 billion for compute, with SemiAnalysis estimating it and OpenAI will take 60% of next year’s global additions.

Dan Nishball × Zane Fong × Kang Wen Cheang × Jordan Nanos

AI infrastructure’s bottleneck is shifting to balance-sheet capacity: $11 trillion of 2024-2029 capex could require roughly $7.1 trillion of funding, while five-year hyperscaler offtake excludes short-duration demand.NVIDIA’s GB300 backstop makes neocloud capacity lendable by flooring cash flow, but selects repeat buyers and ties NCP access to its stack; rapid GPU depreciation and utilization gaps remain the underwriting risk.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Vlad Barbalat

Liberty Mutual’s $120B balance sheet combines roughly $70–75B of reserves with growth credit and equity, while permanent mutual capital avoids shareholder pressure and supports 7–10% portfolio targets.Barbalat now questions whether AI makes future cash flows—and therefore multiples—structurally less visible, with four-year software credit appearing safer than 30-year Salesforce or Oracle debt and potentially steeper credit curves ahead.

David Haber × Marc Rowan

Apollo’s slightly-over-$1 trillion platform is 80% investment-grade credit, making origination capacity—not available capital—the binding constraint on growth.Daily estimated valuations for private investment-grade products by June 30 and all credit by the end of September could widen access as $800 billion of 2026 capex from four public companies tests financing capacity.

David Haber × Tony James

Tony James’s compounding playbook paired early S-curve positioning with operating discipline, from DLJ using leveraged buyouts to “buy clients we couldn’t actually win competitively” to Blackstone increasing market value about 170-fold while fund IRRs improved.Costco shows the customer moat in practice—if sourcing saves a nickel, “100% of that nickel gets lower prices”—while James sees a private-credit correction ahead and favors seasoned assets through co-investments and continuation vehicles.

DeFi Dad × Chaitanya Jain

Strategy’s Nasdaq-listed STRC targets a stable $100 price with an 11.5% annual yield paid monthly and tax-deferred, backed by 4-5x more Bitcoin than issued plus $2.25B in cash.Its differentiated buyer base could keep funding Bitcoin accumulation through bear markets: Strategy raised $1.6B in two weeks, but the model depends on Bitcoin appreciation, disciplined management, and eventual demand for a proposed digital-money layer.

Jason Yanowitz × Charles Cascarilla

Stablecoins are moving from crypto speculation toward regulated financial infrastructure, while Paxos’s white-label volume grew from about $1 billion to $6 billion and USDG reached around $1.8 billion across about 130 institutions.If GENIUS removes ambiguity, competition centers on liquidity, utility and regulation, while Paxos’s “very likely” IPO has no firm timing.

DeFi Dad × Nomatic × Arpan Gautam

sUSN has outperformed Ethena, Resolv, Cap, USDai, and Sky through an allocator spanning DeFi, CeFi, and TradFi.With funding-rate arbitrage at a standstill, capital is shifting toward credit and CLOs; Accountable proof-of-solvency differentiates Noon, while First Brands fraud and tentative institutions remain key risks.

Matt Reustle × Josh Clarkson

Retail alternatives could add roughly $4T of AUM for large managers as individual allocations move from 2–5% toward 15–20%, versus 20–30%+ for institutions.Clarkson argues First Brands and Tricolor were liquid-market failures, while direct lending’s diligence and contractual cash flows offer a safer route to sub-investment-grade yields; BREIT versus Third Avenue shows liquidity architecture matters.Trump’s ERISA order makes target-date funds the realistic 401(k) vehicle, favoring scaled brands and credit platforms, but higher fees and redemption design remain key variables.

Erik Torenberg × Turner Caldwell × Erin Price-Wright × Ryan McEntush

Critical minerals are physical inputs to AI, grids, batteries, data-center infrastructure, vehicles, and defense systems.Turner Caldwell’s mass-flow call is emphatic: “We need a lot of aluminum.We need an insane amount of copper.We need more iron.We need more zinc,” while lithium production capacity must roughly 4× over the next 10 years if…