MARKET UPDATE: Hunter Biden Scams Us, $INTC Rips, Commodities Onchain, Anthropic's Skynet Risk
Bitcoin’s failure to clear $80K has Jonah turning short-term bearish, with a “quite high” probability of falling below $70K.Stocks migrating onchain through Lighter and Hyperliquid could leave Nasdaq behind, while $LAPTOP’s fall from $1.5B to about $630M highlights political-token extraction risk.
Vol.234 宏观漫谈110｜全球流动性的困境与中国五类经济主体的金融结构转型（9.2录制）
全球流动性或已见顶，AI数据中心与美债、美股争夺资金，资本开支转向惩罚激进；李丰的英伟达实验提示延期、涨价、自由现金流下降和应收高企风险。中国融资结构与房地产、保险、A股筹码调整或重塑居民资产配置，滞胀与泡沫出清仍待观察。
MARKET UPDATE: What Is MemeFi, WAR With Iran, & The Fed Not Backing Down — What You Need To Know
MemeFi is rotating between stories rather than attracting a broad 2020–November 2021-style wave, while Robinhood Chain’s weekly volume rose from $500M to $1.5B.Jonah says value may accrue to FOMO, exchanges, Vlad Tenev, or underlying protocols rather than ordinary traders, leaving sub-1% sizing, multi-cycle durability, frontier-model productivity, and Iran’s Hormuz leverage as risks to monitor.
Vol.229 宏观漫谈109｜我们正处于一个美元主导的资本周期上升阶段尾部（8.6录制）
美元计价资产正处于资本周期上升阶段尾部，增量资金不足使市场转向宽幅轮动与存量博弈。美国美债将突破40万亿美元，利息与国防开支合计接近3万亿美元、占财政收入一半以上，加息和降息都受约束。日元流动性反转、数据中心私募债与霍尔木兹海峡构成黑天鹅，后续需观察美债发行压力、黄金及中国超额储蓄是否转化为持续流入。
Vol.228 对话单伟建：经历过周期会让人谦逊
单伟建认为中国经济运行在潜力之下：6.5%平均准备金率、160万亿家庭存款和净资产政府资产负债表提供政策与消费空间。房地产占2019年家庭财富约59%，上海二手房价五个月涨约7.6%或成消费催化剂，但出口贡献超30%却缺乏体感，保护主义与内卷仍是风险。
Vol.226 宏观漫谈108｜2026年中国经济年中观察与两个神奇的中国经济现象（7.16录制）
政府投资和房地产拖累上半年，但新房待售面积连降约四个月、70城20城涨价，显示一线城市至少底部企稳，交易规模或已接近六七万亿。约50万亿定存到期推动资金流向保险、理财和权益，平准基金5—6月快速卖出九成以上仓位由保险低价接盘，后续关注7月存款活化与量子计算、核聚变过热风险。
Are Rate Cuts Dead?
Oil’s fall from above $100 to the 80s, with energy accounting for 35-40% of recent CPI growth, gives Warsh room to avoid a disastrous pivot; Jonah’s closing call is that rate cuts are not dead.Markets barely sold off through full-blown war and a closed Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing the flows-over-fundamentals regime, while SpaceX’s 4% float makes its August/September unlocks a key risk window.
Emerging Markets Reimagined: Risk, Reward & the Road Ahead
EM’s 20% gain this year after 30% last year is framed as a long cycle, with 10x forward PE, twice US earnings growth, and just over 10% of market cap.Nigeria’s reforms and currency stabilization accompany a 170% rise, yet valuation remains under 7x earnings.Jumia serves $200–400 customers through direct-China sourcing, controlled distribution, and cost discipline; scale and demographics could catalyze growth.
Big Tech Earnings, DeFi United and Pump Fun’s Token Burn
Jason YanowitzSantiago Roel Santos
Crypto trading is contracting even as stablecoins dominate earnings calls, with Robinhood volumes down 40% and Hyperliquid perp volume down 30%.Yano’s deal flow shows fintechs quietly moving infrastructure to stablecoins, while Visa’s related card volume rose 200% YoY across 160 programs.Value capture remains contested: Santi says Tempo has little flow, and Pump Fun’s $370M burn failed to lift its token.
Why We’ve Bottomed, Oil Hits $100 & The Stablecoin Trade
Avi sees Bitcoin’s failed breakdown and move above 74 as evidence that sellers are exhausted, with 69 as the failed-breakout risk level and 85 as the near-term target.The Iran shock may create a wall of worry rather than lasting contagion, while Hyperliquid’s weekend access and Sky’s buybacks offer differentiated stablecoin exposure as Circle faces high valuation and falling-yield risk.