Why India’s Next Tech Giants Are Hiding in Plain Sight | Paavan Gami
India’s early IPOs can expose public investors to venture-style compounding: Gami cites a roughly $350 million median valuation, 70% founder-family ownership, and category leaders listing at $600 million–$1 billion.His thesis hinges on compliance-driven consolidation, with 5–6% leaders potentially reaching 30–40%; Eternal and Meesho show contrasting routes through rapid delivery and low-price logistics, making market-share gains central to the opportunity.
The Business of Seinfeld (Audio)
Nearly three decades after production ended, Seinfeld reached 72 million U.S. viewers through August 2026, while Netflix reportedly paid well over $500 million for five years of rights.FIN-SYN-era ownership left creators and Castle Rock with back-end stakes, while Sony’s distribution rights require market bidding; open-market availability differentiates Seinfeld as a streaming retention asset.
based16z - The Hyperliquid Trade, Early Lore, & How to Make It
Hyperliquid became based16z’s defining trade after he recognized its superior product and exceptional founder before an investable token existed.Rare asymmetric setups—not frequent activity—powered positive crypto years despite a 25%–30% win rate, while oversized positions and 40x leverage damaged realized returns.Whop marks his shift toward positive-sum equity and products, but permanent holding remains unresolved.
October 2026 Random Ramblings
Headline gains conceal sharp dispersion: the S&P rose 13% YTD, yet the Russell 2000 fell 8% since June 30 as energy and tech led.Russell’s reconstitution also helped it avoid SMCI’s later 80% collapse.Meanwhile, FICO’s regulatory pressure, Disney’s “Infinity Vision” effort, and Chinese microdramas flag competitive threats to pricing power and Netflix viewing.
$TPB: can Turning Point Brands be the third player in nicotine pouches? | Saberpoint Capital
Turning Point Brands is positioning FRE and Tucker Carlson-backed ALP as a third nicotine-pouch player, using national distribution, regulatory capability and an expanding salesforce.Cash-generative legacy businesses may support expansion, but PMTA, slotting, marketing costs and unresolved domestic-production timing and Tucker economics could pressure earnings.
Adam Foroughi, Applovin CEO: Surviving a 92% Drawdown, Ads as ML 1.0 & the $50B Game Ad Market
AppLovin is extending a roughly $50B mobile-gaming ad market, with platform ad spend growing from $11B to about $20B, into e-commerce discovery.Its April 2023 deep-learning model improved advertiser performance and enabled scaling, while roughly $6B in buybacks retired 20–25% of shares after a 92% drawdown.Discovery may expand activity beyond Google Search, but stated 84% EBITDA margins depend on differentiated data, complexity and scale.
$NTDOY: is Nintendo's flywheel actually there? | Accrued Interest
Nintendo’s Switch 2 flywheel remains unproven: low attach rates, roughly flat online subscribers, a Zelda remake-led holiday slate, and Pokémon potentially delayed until spring 2027 leave the new cycle dependent on aging IP.Memory inflation has forced an early price increase, while Spotify’s 2024–2025 royalty resets and new audiobook revenue offer a cleaner path toward 20% operating margins by 2030.
Home Depot: The best-performing stock in the S&P 500 since IPO (Audio)
Home Depot’s extraordinary compounding rests on a differentiated specialty-retail system: tradespeople, 25,000 SKUs, supplier-financed inventory, and scale that once produced four times Lowe’s transactions.With 51% of a $300 billion market and a 42-year median U.S. home age, its logistics moat supports 2–24-hour delivery, while SRS integration and paused buybacks remain key milestones to monitor.
$TBBB: Tiendas 3B is Mexico's Aldi. Is it too late to buy? | Fruit Tree Capital
Tiendas 3B brings Aldi/BİM’s hard-discount model to Mexico with roughly 3,700 stores, 1,000 SKUs, and over 60% private label.Organic distribution-center “cell division” supports expansion, while Vadia says halved 38% growth over two to three decades could produce a potential 100×.The key risk is whether two-year payback survives 15,000 stores as produce adds complexity and Mexico risk remains.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades at 2.3x EV/EBITDA after three years of windfall profits, with 80% fleet ownership and 2023 FCF of $100–200M.Customer float, Sabbath downtime, the $40M pricing fine, and eventual full competition temper the asset and slot-scarcity thesis.Stride's CEO exit makes late-October fall enrollment a potential 20-point catalyst either way, with Canvas execution and take-private speculation unresolved.