$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger creates a full-chain distributor with $75M targeted synergies and water, utilities, and data-center exposure.Buybacks at $10–12 and debt paydown support a cash-flow case, while the conservative-looking 2027 $350M EBITDA guide compares with roughly $400M on 2024 numbers.Reaching $30–32 by 2028–2029 from $16 depends on $300M 2027 FCF and re-rating, leaving ERP execution, macro recovery, and multiple expansion to monitor.
Bloom Energy CEO: Why We Aren’t in an AI Capex Bubble | Energy Sovereignty & The Future of Power
AI factories make electricity the binding input, and KR Sridhar frames Bloom Energy’s opportunity against a $5.5 trillion power market versus $2 billion of revenue last year.Oracle’s 50+ MW contract in 90 days and delivery in 55 days support the architecture case, while scaling from 1 GW to over 2 gigawatts by year-end leaves permits, gas supply, and customer buildouts as constraints.
Chadd Garcia drills into LandBridge's value
Chad Garcia frames LandBridge as a higher-quality Permian land and surface-use royalty play, trading at 20–22x EBITDA versus TPL’s 28–31x.Management said 5M bbl/day could be absorbed within five years at 15-cents-per-barrel pricing, implying 25% FCF CAGR despite no long-term guidance.Data-center upside remains a free option, with no Permian hyperscaler definitively announced.
Altius Minerals: Royalty Check - [Business Breakdowns, EP.243]
Altius Minerals is a base-metals royalty outlier whose five-person project-generation team embeds royalties before selling or listing projects, retaining exposure while others fund mine-level CapEx and OpEx.That engine invested about $30M and monetized $200M from equity sales in the last mining cycle, while potash and renewable royalties diversify the portfolio.Net cash and a target to grow royalty revenue from about $60M last year to $200M by 2030 support the thesis, but a takeover by higher-multiple precious-metals peers remains a risk.
Elon's $60B Cursor Bet, Claude kills SaaS, and OpenAI's Mass Departures | EP #249
Peter DiamandisSalim IsmailDave BlundinDr. Alexander Wissner-Gross
Claude Design’s launch pushed Figma down 10% and Adobe about 2%, signaling that frontier labs can reprice SaaS by unhobbling capabilities already latent in base models.Defensibility is shifting toward proprietary data, customer ownership, regulation, physical-world integration, and distribution as code generation, private compute, and Hormuz-linked supply shocks reshape competitive advantage and capital allocation.
Chris Paryse on Ferrellgas's big conversion $FGPR
Ferrellgas completed its Class B conversion at 5x—1.3M Bs became 6.5M As versus just under 5M existing As—avoiding a 6x step-up within 20 days while roughly doubling free float.With $330–340M EBITDA and $85–90M FCF, Paryse expects cash rebuilding around the 7x preferred covenant before a dividend “this time next year.”Nasdaq uplisting, potential preferred takeout, and fragmented-market M&A are catalysts, while 6.8x leverage, illiquidity, and governance remain risks.
Vol.71 简单聊聊GPT5和美国电力---with 刘一鸣/101 Weekly
GPT-5显示合成数据、预训练再利用与强化学习仍能延展scaling law,数学、编程和医疗成为强化学习更易兑现的领域。推理token消耗与算力需求可能以指数级上升,推动数据中心CapEx触及美国电力系统临界点;OpenAI仍需通过To B和政府订单补足To C订阅的收入约束。
Pitch the PM's Doug Garber on $TUSK's mammoth cash balance
TUSK’s roughly $118 million equity value compares with $135 million of unrestricted cash and potential cash claims of approximately $0.80-$0.90 per share.PREPA settlement and the transmission-and-distribution sale rebuilt the balance sheet, but credibility damage and cash-burning operations make the next CEO’s deployment of approximately $150 million both catalyst and risk.







