为AI时代重建传统企业:Sequence Holdings联合创始人兼CEO Michael Lee
- 成立仅20个月的Sequence Holdings正与Dell家族办公室合作推进Sarah所称迄今最大规模的私人AI收购:家族办公室以77亿美元收购Baldwin。 Lee在ChatGPT出现、可规模化架构开始变得可信时形成的核心判断是,AI的影响并不均衡:创业公司会在编码等部分垂直领域胜出,但传统龙头仍拥有品牌、规模、网络效应和监管优势;若将这些优势与前沿工程能力结合,就可能打造市场领导者。
- Lee解释传统企业为何难以完成自我转型的结构性框架,是本期最锋利的部分。 自行转型首先面临人才与文化问题,因为“全球每家公司都有一个举足轻重的人物”——在Blackstone,这个人是投资人;但“如果你相信alpha来自工程和人工智能,就必须建立一种文化,让那个举足轻重的人物成为工程师”。服务商围绕客户预算份额优化,“这条路通向渐进主义”;买软件则等于买入一种beta,而软件“总是把工作流按今天的设计方式卖给你”。
- 与PE的刻意区分在于稀缺性和持有期限:“我们尽量每年做一笔交易。仅此而已。” Sequence并不围绕基金部署节奏组织,也没有投资人催促其出手;相比之下,典型收购交易的逻辑是“你通常会想着如何开始准备材料,3年后把这家公司卖掉”。Lee称,希望将Sequence的股权“持有一辈子”。
- BankSouth试点交出了硬数据:自3月以来,平均消费贷款承保量下降94%;商业贷款承保上线后,平均贷款周期由30天缩短至11天;Q2贷款量较Q1翻倍,同时承保团队缩编、承保标准不变。 反直觉的是,“银行受到监管这一点是优势而非缺陷(the regulated nature of the bank was a feature, not a bug)”——清晰定义的规则和干净的数据治理“非常适合智能体”。
- Baldwin/经纪业务的投资逻辑建立在创业公司难以突破的结构性保护之上:年保费规模超过2万亿美元,保险公司“从有史以来几乎就没怎么靠承保赚钱”,主要靠投资收益盈利,客户留存率达90%,而经纪人的客户并不向其付费,价格竞争因此困难。 Sequence筛选的是“组织物理学”:运营密集且高度集中的企业,在总部建成的任何能力都能摊销到每一家分支机构。
- 可复用的资产是Atlas:一套四层平台,包括数据本体、智能体构建器、“lattice”编排层和“artifacts”应用构建器,基础判断是各行业80%的业务原子单元都具有同质性。 但Lee坦承,真正的约束并不在代码:“我们同时面对工程问题和人的工程问题,而人的工程问题复杂得多。”
- Lee结合Goldman、Apollo和Lone Pine经历总结的投资课,是“想法很便宜,执行极其困难(ideas are cheap, and execution is very difficult)”:押注大市场中的非凡人才。 他心目中的最佳样本,是2017年与Jensen Huang见面时看到的特质——持续稳定、思路清晰,以及不断重塑业务;这些品质在早期和后期投资中同样重要。
1. 创始洞见:AI影响不均,传统龙头手握胜牌
- Lee的起点是2017年在Lone Pine负责AI研究:AlphaGo、第一篇transformer论文,以及CNN、GAN和LSTM主导的时代,都显示出模型规模化后的“退化效应”。2022年末ChatGPT等模型出现后,计算逻辑发生变化:“世界已经永远改变……我们终于拥有了一种确定可以随算力无限扩展的架构。”
- 他由此绘制出一张经济版图:有些行业AI完全不会影响,比如餐馆和高尔夫球场;有些行业由创业公司胜出,比如编码——“Conviction和Sequence要去收购一家外包编码公司……这听起来糟透了,但你会把钱交给Cognition或Anthropic。”但在更广阔的领域,“传统龙头拥有全部优势”——品牌、规模、网络效应和监管;问题就变成,继承这些优势、再叠加前沿工程能力,能否打造市场领导者。
- Lee想推动的不是渐进式升级,而是组织层面的重构:如今大多数企业AI仍是“推动把小机器塞进人类流水线上的每一个人”,但能够全天候运行、随电力投入扩张的机器,要求组织围绕技术所能实现的事情重新设计。
2. Lee认为传统企业难以转型的原因:三道门
- 第一扇门是自行转型,问题在人才和文化:“全球每家公司都有一个举足轻重的人物”;在Blackstone,这个人是投资人。如果alpha如今来自工程能力,就“必须建立一种文化,让那个举足轻重的人物成为工程师”。Lee认为,这本质上也是Palantir存在的原因:尊重世界级工程师,并把这类人才的能力封装起来,服务于无法自行招募他们的企业。
- 第二扇门是服务商,失败在激励机制。Accenture、McKinsey和Palantir“围绕三件事优化自身业务:把资金放进你的钱包、让资金留在你的钱包里、扩大它们在你钱包中的份额。这条路通向渐进主义”;而供应商无法改变企业如何组织、谁在组织中工作,以及激励机制如何设计。
- 第三扇门是购买软件,失败有两层:“如果所有人都能用,那么所有人都能用”;更隐蔽的问题是,软件供应商必须把工作流做成统一版本,才能大规模销售,这意味着“你总是在销售今天设计好的工作流”——也就是现有的人类流水线。Lee认为,拥有企业本身才能带来利益一致、尊重工程师的文化,以及与转型相匹配的时间跨度。
3. 永续持有公司,而非基金:每年一笔交易
- 这一结构源于工作的本质:让资本期限匹配持续的运营投入,让组织文化面向“打造市场领导者,而不是吸引资本”,并用留存收益支持现有公司、吸引新的投资。Lee曾在Apollo工作,虽然他认可典型PE,但他认为基金结构“会激励你去投资”,并把组织推向“准备材料,3年后把这家公司卖掉”。Sequence没有部署节奏:“我们尽量每年做一笔交易。仅此而已……如果这意味着今年什么都不做,那太好了。”
- 他对收购基金人才留存的批评很具体:他的工程师“希望在决策发生时就在场”;而在大型股权投资公司里,“要找到一个25岁的工程师,能对投资画像有任何发言权,会非常不寻常”。应用软件开发者也告诉他,他们的商业模式不取决于模型做什么:模型性能提升,只会给Sequence带来更多工具,而不是制造生存风险。
- Lee表示,希望将Sequence Equity“持有一辈子”,这也凸显了它与典型基金投资截然不同的持有期限。
4. BankSouth:带来实际数据的冷启动试点
- 项目起于一个冷启动难题:“没有钱,就做不了交易;没有交易,就招不到工程师。”Lee随后致电Avenir联合创始人Jamie Reynolds,后者家族拥有一家Georgia银行。项目于8月4日启动,Lee记得那天是自己的结婚纪念日,而他错过了。到11月底,这家族办公室邀请Sequence成为永久合作伙伴;项目最终在获得Fed和OCC批准后于3月完成投资交割。
- Guo回忆,自己起初面对银行业务的复杂性和监管问题时“有些骇然”,因为银行传统上并不是PE青睐的行业。Lee的判断恰好相反:“银行受到监管这一点是优势而非缺陷(the regulated nature of the bank was a feature, not a bug)”;清晰定义的运营规则和出色的数据治理“非常适合智能体”。银行的集中化运营结构也符合Sequence的“组织物理学”:承保集中在总部完成,因此总部构建的一切都能摊销到各家分支机构。
- 结果是:自3月以来,平均消费贷款承保量下降94%;商业贷款承保上线后,平均贷款周期由30天降至11天;Q2贷款量较Q1翻倍。Lee保留了其中的限定条件:“纯属运气。我不会说Sequence对此有任何贡献”,但他同时指出,银行是在承保标准不变、承保团队更小的情况下处理了这批业务量。团队缩编的原因是一人退休、另一人转入前台。
- 运营目标并不只是减少人数:贷款专员应把更多时间用于外出拓展,而不是撰写贷款函;承保人员则聚焦复杂例外,而非机械化处理。下一步路线图包括推出新产品和新业务、为贷款专员及客户关系经理提供更好的工具,以及打造差异化的客户体验。
5. Baldwin与经纪业务护城河:以及Sequence看重什么样的管理层
- Sequence的筛选标准是:足够大的市场、有显著优势的传统企业,以及与AI擅长的事情存在重叠。Sequence寻找的是有望成长为价值超过1亿美元的公司,Lee说“你不可能一年做10次这样的交易”。经纪业务满足全部条件:年保费规模超过2万亿美元,保险公司“从有史以来几乎就没怎么靠承保赚钱”,主要通过投资收益盈利,客户留存率达90%,且客户不向经纪人付费。由于经纪人几乎无法靠价格竞争,这个行业对创业公司并不友好。
- Lee对保险公司的判断是,投资收益会鼓励资产积累,使高质量成长型业务尤其有价值,也部分解释了保险经纪行业的强韧性。Baldwin提供了可扩展的资产、集中的技术基础设施,以及一支对现有技术能力抱有雄心的世界级领导团队。
- 对管理层,Lee明确表示自己没有经营经纪公司或银行的经验,因此Sequence依赖管理团队成为各自行业中最优秀的运营者。它寻找那些已经展现出技术主动性的团队——在结果尚未明朗前就开始上云、集中数据基础设施,或在组织内部部署OpenAI或Anthropic。
- 访谈提到,Trevor Baldwin很早就在Baldwin运行“Entropic”,但这一表述存在歧义。公司目前正围绕保险经纪人的核心运营系统Applied Epic推进单一实例建设。Dell家族办公室的Michael Dell和全球私募股权负责人Dan Betar与Sequence共同完成了对这笔交易、其技术平台及技术转型计划的评估。
6. Atlas、人的工程问题与纯粹的风险投资
- Atlas在银行内部搭建,基础观察来自一批拥有Scale AI、Palantir等公司背景的工程师:把企业拆解成业务原子单元后,“其中80%基本同质,20%具有垂直行业特征”。四层架构分别是数据本体——“如何用代码简单定义组织及其业务流动”——智能体构建器、“lattice”编排层,以及“artifacts”应用构建器。核心基础设施计划在Baldwin和未来公司之间复用。
- 更难的问题在人:“我们同时面对工程问题和人的工程问题,而人的工程问题复杂得多。”银行让Sequence对员工焦虑变得“高度敏感”。这套方法是提升员工工作的价值、移除单调重复任务、发挥人性中最有优势的部分,并营造组织正在赢得胜利的感受。
- 在收官的投资讨论中,Lee表示,如果自己有一天重返PE——但他强调不会这样做——会寻找“大市场中解决复杂问题的非凡人才”。想法很便宜,执行极其困难;非凡的人才总能找到合适的支持,即使一个想法起初看起来很疯狂,也能把事情做成。
- Guo称这是最纯粹的风险投资方式。Lee表示认同,并提到自己2017年与Jensen Huang见面的经历:思路清晰、执行稳定、身边聚集着坚定投入的人才,同时不断重塑业务,以应对变化中的市场。
完整逐字稿
Every company on the planet has a famous person. In a world where you believe alpha comes from engineering and artificial intelligence, you need to create a culture where the person of note is the engineer. That's what's needed. If you think about your typical fund investment, you're usually trying to figure out how to start packaging to sell this thing in 3 years.
It's just a completely different formulation of how we think about technological transformation and what kind of investment you're willing to bring here. What we do is rare. We try to do 1 deal a year. That's all. Our job is to conclude 1.
Today I'm here with Michael Lee, co-founder and CEO of Sequence Holdings. They just announced the largest private AI acquisition to date: the Dell family office's $7.7 billion acquisition of Baldwin. We're talking about this, the Sequence story, how the AI transformation will actually permeate the economy, and what moves from public investment to private equity and operations. Welcome, Michael.
1. Conclusion
Thank you for that. Thank you for inviting me.
2. Sequence Holdings and Baldwin
You founded Sequence Holdings, a perpetual holding company that works with management teams to acquire and recapitalize their businesses to become market leaders in artificial intelligence. We should talk about this. That's a very exciting model, but you also announced this big deal with Baldwin. Tell us about it.
We founded the company 20 months ago with the goal of partnering with world-class companies and management teams, working closely with our Frontier engineering team to build market leaders. The insurance brokerage industry is an area to which we've devoted a lot of time since founding the business. We met with dozens of insurance brokers, and Baldwin was truly 1 of the best insurance brokers we met with.
It's been a privilege to spend a lot of time with Trevor Baldwin and the management team over the past few months, and we couldn't be more excited about the journey that lies ahead between us, the Baldwin team, and the Dell family office that supported us on this deal.
3. Idea for Sequence
I want to talk a little bit about you and your co-founder, Alex, and how the idea for Sequence came about, because you were an investor and are now a hybrid investor and operator. Tell us how you came up with this idea.
When I first joined Lone Pine in 2017, 1 of the first areas I was asked to cover was artificial intelligence. It was quite early. You remember, it was around the time AlphaGo came out. Actually, that's when the first paper on transformers came out, and there was a lot of hype about what would be commercially viable if you scaled these architectures. At that time, it was convolutional neural networks, GANs, LSTMs, and so on.
I think we all know how the story ends, which is that we've obviously seen a lot of exciting things, but as these architectures scale over time, there are degrading effects. I share this context because when models like ChatGPT appeared in late 2022, it became obvious to me that the world had changed forever. Finally, we had an architecture that we knew could scale infinitely. Whether it was possible or what would come of it was unclear, but we knew we could scale with compute, which would improve this architecture.
As an investor, I started thinking about what impact this would have on the world. I was convinced that AI would have an uneven impact on the economy. There are certain areas of the economy that, in my opinion, AI will not affect at all. Take restaurants, golf courses, and so on. There are certain industries in which, in my opinion, a startup will win. Take coding, for example. For example, Conviction and Sequence are going to buy an outsourcing coding business, which seems like a terrible idea, but you would give money to Cognition or Anthropic.
But as a business student, I always felt that the incumbent leader had all the advantages. It could be brand, scale, network effects, or regulation. Given what would be the biggest technological shift of our lifetime, I was very convinced that if you could find the right incumbent leader and inherit the benefits of being that leader, you could create a market leader. The core of this idea is what Sequence is actually based on.
I came up with this idea in early 2023, and several people tried to convince me to leave Lone Pine to do this. It just wasn't the right time for me. Then I remember going for a walk with my wife in 2024 and saying to her, "Hey, it's pretty rare in life to find yourself in the middle of the most important technological change of our lifetime, having an idea that I'm really excited about, and feeling very strongly that I can put together a team to make it happen."
4. Incumbents in the AI Era
That's why we created Sequence. I couldn't be more excited about what we've been able to accomplish to date and what we see ahead.
This is a super-principled approach to thinking about what macro changes are happening in technology and how they will affect the economy. A lot of investors, at least venture capitalists, would say, "The existing players have a bunch of advantages. I guess it's just not for us." How did you think about the scale and the idea of being able to interact with or even own existing players? This could be something to do, but isn't that an ambitious premise?
I think it's more of a business model that fits the opportunities today. If you take a giant step back, at least at Sequence, when we think about what's happening with artificial intelligence today, we think we're experiencing the equivalent of the next Industrial Revolution. What we typically see in most enterprises, and what I typically see from a lot of software companies that are building AI agents today, is this giant push to put little machines in every person on the human assembly line and speed up the work.
There's nothing wrong with that. It's great. But when you have machines that can run 24/7, that can scale with electricity, and that can do things that no single person or group of people can do, the right response is to think: How do you start to reorganize what an organization should be to accommodate the capabilities available to you through technology?
This is the context in which we find ourselves. For the first time, we have a real opportunity to partner with amazing companies with amazing leadership teams, combining that with our platform and our engineering team, and really thinking critically about how we reengineer the organization. How do we build on what's best in terms of what these technologies can do? What can people do? How do we rethink how we can compete in these different industries?
I think it's more an opportunity than an ambition, because I just think it has to happen, and I don't see a natural path for it to happen unless you do it through our approach.
5. Why a Holding Company
Can you tell us a little about the company structure? Why a permanent holding company? Do you know what ownership allows you to do that being a supplier or a partner doesn't allow you to do?
6. What Sequence Looks For in Management Teams
I think this question has 2 parts. In terms of the holding company structure itself, when I was thinking about what it takes to achieve what Sequence Holdings wants to do—which is, how do we partner with world-class organizations, how do we apply advanced engineering, and how do we create a platform that we can use for all of our portfolio companies?—the only natural way to do this is through a holding company.
How do we create a business that can help us create market leaders? How do we reconcile the duration of capital with the sustained investment and operational commitments that will be required to fully advance the transformation? How do we create a cultural orientation that is aimed at creating market leaders, not at attracting capital? Finally, how do we create the right structure to leverage the business's retained earnings to rethink how to support existing companies and attract new investment?
When I think about the opportunities that lie ahead, the only natural way to do this would be to create a holding company.
Regarding your second question, on ownership, let's look at it with an example. Let's say we're a Fortune 500 company with unlimited resources. If I challenge you and say, "Hey, you're the CEO of a Fortune 500 company today, and your job is to reinvent yourself," you have 3 options.
First, you do it yourself. The structural problem associated with this—and it's not a bad one—is that it's impossible to attract and retain the talent needed for this restructuring. The reason for this is actually much more obvious than people think: every company on the planet has a person of note.
Take Blackstone, for example. It's an incredible organization that I really admire. In fact, I make every person read King of Capital. But Blackstone's person of note is an investor, and that is why they're able to unite the largest investors in the world.
In a world where you believe alpha comes from engineering and artificial intelligence, you need to create a culture where the person of note is the engineer. And that's exactly what's needed.
Is this the reason why Palantir exists?
I'm sure Alex Karp would hate for me to describe it this way, but this is essentially an organization that has brought together world-class engineers and honors engineers. Essentially, what they're doing is creating a wrapper to sell that talent to other organizations that can't get it.
That brings me to my 2nd point. If you can't find the talent to do it yourself, then this huge, multitrillion-dollar industry called the service industry has formed.
These are great companies: Accenture, McKinsey, and Palantir. They respect engineers and respect changes in technology. But the challenge you face when you partner with a service provider to reimagine and transform your business is the issue of incentives.
Service companies optimize their costs for three things: getting funds into your wallet, keeping them in your wallet, and increasing your wallet share. This is the path to gradualism. On top of that, service providers can’t really change what you need to fit the moment: how to change the way people are organized, who works in these organizations, and what the incentives are.
So, if you can’t do it yourself, you can’t use vendors, and you have a third option that a lot of people do, which is to buy software. The problem with purchasing software is twofold. The obvious one is that it is a beta version. If it is available to everyone, then it is available to everyone.
I think the more nuanced part, which people often overlook, is that if you and I were running a software company, we would be optimizing a workflow that is pretty uniform and exists in a lot of places. Then we would have to implement it fast enough, but deeply enough, so that we could sell a lot of it and make it sticky.
This is Structurally genetics, yes, it sounds very appealing. That would be the genetics of what we are looking for. However, this means that you will always be selling the workflow as it is designed today.
People today are tuned into this human assembly line. This is the only way to sell the product. You can’t sell a product on a new human assembly line that doesn’t exist today just because you think it should.
And so, when we think about why our model works, it’s important that you have ownership and are therefore aligned. How do you create an organization like Sequence Holdings that celebrates the engineer and applies cutting-edge engineering?
And third, how do you manage the long-term horizon and the economic model in a way that aligns us with management on how we think about building the best possible version of this company based on the technology available today? That’s exactly how we think about our business model. That’s why we think it works.
The early data from BankSouth and what we saw in the industry today prove that thesis.
7. Recruiting Top Engineers
I want to talk a little bit about BankSouth. You have a team that includes a bunch of the same specialists as Palantir, and you try to keep the bar for quality very high. What is attractive about the team of engineers working at Sequence?
I think it’s a bunch of things. First of all, it’s really an opportunity to work on companies that are actually the capillaries through which people interact.
Companies working with artificial intelligence models are phenomenal. We wouldn’t be here today if it weren’t for Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and others. But the reality is that the impact on each person’s daily life will really depend on the companies that serve them today.
For us, this is an opportunity to collaborate with really important companies that play a major role in the economy and really think about how we can apply world-class technology to provide a unique experience for our customers. I think that mission is quite powerful.
When I think about the two engineers that we typically hire, I call them front-end engineers. What attracts them is the ability to be really aligned with the value that they’re creating. I think that’s an incredibly rewarding experience, and it’s the ability to manage the kind of change that wouldn’t be possible if you were a service provider. That’s quite attractive.
On the other hand, which venture capitalists probably don’t care to think about, when I talk to application software developers, they say, “Hey, we’re one of the few business models in the world that’s completely independent of what this model is going to do.”
As the model’s performance improves, we celebrate it here at Sequence, and it gives us more tools that we can use in the companies we work with. There is no real existential risk as to whether our business will exist. I think those are the things we like.
The mission is probably what drives it ultimately, but there are tangible things we talk about with candidates that are pretty attractive about what we’re trying to build.
8. Investing in BankSouth
I remember the first time you said to me, “Hey, we’re thinking we’re going to buy part of the bank and partner with the BankSouth team.” I probably reacted with a little horror at the complexities and regulatory issues involved. I thought, “Michael, you probably know that there’s a reason why banking has traditionally not been a popular private equity sector.”
Tell us a little bit about how you chose financial services and what you’ve learned from partnering with BankSouth so far.
I think it’s worth taking a step back and thinking about how this investment came about, and then maybe looking at how and why this was the perfect place for us to start our business.
When we started this business, let’s say in March of last year, when you first wrote the first check, we had a cold-start problem, right? The holding company model is a strange business. Without money, you can’t make a deal. If you don’t have a deal, you can’t hire engineers. If you can’t hire engineers, then no one else will give you money.
Fortunately, you were ready to support us. We managed to get a few engineers to work with us, but we were still stuck with the cold-start problem when we really had nothing to do.
One of the questions we discussed at the time was: should we just buy something to prove to the world that we can buy something and make a difference, or should we wait for the right asset? As you know, we’ve always had a bias toward scale and entrepreneurship.
Unfortunately, there aren’t many investors in the world who are willing to give you hundreds of millions of dollars to buy a company and see if your technology works. So we decided to reach out to the client.
We called a dear friend, Jamie Reynolds, who is one of the co-founders of Avenir. We essentially said to him, “Hey, here’s the problem I’m facing.” Luckily, his family owns a bank in Georgia, and that’s how he became our first client.
It started in August of last year. In fact, it was August 4th—it was my anniversary. I remember missing it. It was an incredible experience.
From August to November, around the end of November last year, we worked in the service area and started to address key workflows that existed in the bank. Fortunately for us, the family asked us at that point if we would become a permanent partner. That’s how it became our first investment.
We ultimately closed the investment in March. It took us some time to get everything aligned, as well as to get approval from the Fed and the OCC.
I’m sharing this whole context to say that, having worked in the service industry and then being an investor, we saw a night-and-day difference. There are a lot of things.
First of all, from an engineering perspective, you know you’re going to be here for the long haul. The level of complexity and depth you are willing to take on, compared to working as a service provider and knowing that you will eventually leave and have to leave behind programs that other people have to maintain, is noticeably different.
Second, there is a great enthusiasm among employees: “Hey, these people are here to support us for the long term. So how do we push the most ambitious version of this forward?”
And third, can we form a long-term orientation around what we want to see this bank become in 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years? How do we lay the technological foundation in such a way that we always benefit from the efficiency of the model? That’s what we managed to do.
In a strange way, the bank was the perfect pilot project for what we needed to do to test our business model. It was an opportunity to acquire a minority stake—a test of our ability as a venture to operate in a real corporate environment.
Strangely enough, the regulated nature of the bank was a feature, not a bug. One of the nice things about a regulated institution is that the way it operates is clearly defined. Data hygiene is excellent. There are clearly defined rules about how your business should operate.
If you think about it in this context, it actually works extremely well for agents. That’s one element. Another element that was really important for banking, and a pretty valuable lesson for us, was its centralized nature.
From the perspective of our understanding of investing, that was a really valuable lesson. When we at Sequence talk about the companies we’re looking for, we talk a lot about organizational physics. We like organizations with a fairly dense structure and centralized activities. Therefore, everything you create can be amortized over a large base.
For example, let’s take a bank that may have a bunch of different branches, but all underwriting is done centrally. Anything we create at headquarters can simply be amortized across all the branches they work with.
You can compare this to a lot of the mixed-use projects we see in the market today, which I think is a great strategy, but there are a lot of complexities associated with it. You need to integrate different systems, send engineers to different locations, and standardize operating procedures. You have to standardize culture.
For us, a nice feature of the bank is that although it is a large organization with sales of over $100 million, the physics of the business is quite dense. That’s why we’ve managed to make significant progress in a short period of time.
There is a central nervous system. There is an accounting book. There are some key processes. There are levers that can be used economically.
9. Why an Insurance Brokerage
Absolutely true. Why an insurance broker?
The brokerage space has been an industry that we've spent a lot of time in since Sequence was founded. It fits a lot of the things we're looking for. What are we looking for overall when we work as an organization? We think about the scale of the market.
What we do here at Sequence doesn't scale. So if we're going to make an investment, we need it to be consequential. We want to work with companies that we believe we can turn into companies worth over $100 million. You won't do this 10 times a year. No. We are not an investment shop. We partner with great companies to build leaders.
The second thing we were really concerned about was whether this was an industry where the incumbent has all the advantages. I'll be happy to go into this in more detail. And third, if we think about what the organization does and what artificial intelligence is good at today, and think about the intersection, can we create something special?
The brokerage industry largely meets all of these criteria. That's over $2 trillion in premiums per year going to insurers. Brokers take on this role, and it is an industry that has, over time, created dozens of very scaled, large companies. Plus, it's just a great industry that has been very difficult for startups to compete in, for reasons that are less obvious than you might think.
If you think about the insurance value chain, it consists of 3 parts. You have insurance companies, distribution partners, and then the customer. An insurance company makes money in 2 ways. You have underwriting, meaning I assess the risk, I hope to pay out less in claims than I receive in premiums, and the rest of the business is investing.
The insurance industry has made almost no money from underwriting since the beginning of time and earned the bulk of its money through investing. So this encourages asset accumulation. Getting a high-quality growth business is the main reason, and that's why the brokerage industry is so powerful.
Another interesting feature of the brokerage industry is that your client doesn't actually pay you. This is done by the insurance company. If you think about the nature of the business, which is very relationship-oriented, the retention rate is 90%. When you consider that a broker can't really compete on price, it's a very difficult industry for startups.
If you think about what's perfect for Sequence, it's this: a huge market with companies that are largely insulated from the risk of startups. But what if we could partner with the right company? That's exactly what the opportunity at Baldwin provided: a scalable asset with a centralized technology foundation and a world-class leadership team that is ambitious, but also extremely passionate about what's possible with cutting-edge technology today.
10. Atlas Platform Explained
What can you say about what can be generalized or shared in terms of platform technology between different companies?
If you take a step back, we look at our shared platform capabilities as 2 broad areas. One of them is Atlas, which is our platform, which I'll tell you more about here in a second, and then our engineers and our playbook for how we work with companies.
This is an art, not a science. I often joke to myself that we have 2 problems at Sequence. We have an engineering problem and a human engineering problem, and the human engineering problem is much more complex than the engineering problem.
If we think about the engineering problem, we think about Atlas. So what is Atlas today? Atlas is our platform that we built at the bank, which we expect to generalize to all industries over time. Part of it is an observation that some of our engineers had from their previous lives at Scale AI, Palantir, and elsewhere: if you break down a business into its atomic units, 80% of them are largely homogeneous and 20% are vertically specific.
If you think about what Atlas is, Atlas is essentially our platform that does a number of things. First, it helps improve deployment speed, improves agent performance, improves build rates for our own engineers, and ultimately, it's a developer platform that allows the operating company's engineers to build on top of it.
It has 4 levels. The first level is the data ontology. Think about how we simply define the organization and the movement of this business in code. This is extremely important. This is about how to make a business understandable to models. How does an agent know that this customer is the same as this customer in this system? And how do the properties of this customer relate to the requirements or credit policies that are associated with it?
The top level is our agent builder, which essentially explains how we build high-performance agents based on fundamental data, so to speak—the kind of stuff we seem to hear and read a lot about. The third component is what we call the lattice, which is our orchestration mechanism: how do we actually instrument the workflows using the agents that we have created? On top of that is what we call artifacts, which is essentially our application builder that sits on top of everything we've built.
If you think about what we've built from an Atlas perspective, and what we've built here at the bank, fundamentally all of the core infrastructure that we've built is reusable across Baldwin and any future company that we build. This is, in fact, a key component of what we have created today.
From a scripting perspective, that part is an art, not a science. One of the nice things about having talented engineers from places like Scale AI and Palantir is that they've developed a skill set. But what we do is different.
One of the lessons that we learned in the case of the banking business is how much more hypersensitive we need to be to what the employees are feeling. This, while exciting, is also very worrying: What does this mean for us as an organization?
The key for us as a company is how we make people feel good about what we're doing. How do we apply that? How do we elevate what you're doing here at work? How do we use the best aspects of being human? How do we think about making your work more interesting by removing monotonous rote work from your workflow, and how do we create a sense that your organization is winning?
11. Traditional Private Equity Limitations
This playbook is something we will continue to improve. I think we learned a lot here at the bank. We expect to learn a lot here at Baldwin, and that will be a key component of what will eventually come together for us at Sequence.
What do you think will be special for you guys over time that will be very challenging for, say, more traditional big buyout shops? I don't know anyone who doesn't think it's worth at least thinking about AI transformation today.
A lot of what they do in terms of profitability is probably dominated by underwriting, consolidation across platforms, multiple expansion, and some financial engineering. But I think people have, let's say, portfolio operations teams. So how can you make a clearer distinction between why we're not an investment shop and what we think other people are still struggling to do without us?
I really admire all the big private equity firms.
You used to work at Apollo.
I used to work at Apollo. I have many friends who still work at all these different companies. I think they'll continue to do just fine. But I deeply believe that we have a completely different business.
If you think about your typical private equity firm, they sit in a fund structure. The economics of the fund structure are such that it incentivizes you to invest. They are engaged in finding great assets and pricing them attractively by setting the right capital structure, doing enough value creation to earn the required rate of return to satisfy their LP base.
Our business is very different. Our business is: How do we find world-class organizations led by exceptional people, and given an extremely long-term horizon, how do we create a market leader? What we do is different in that respect.
Now, I think there's a pressing question here that you're addressing: Can private equity firms, over time, bring about a radical transformation of artificial intelligence through their actions? I think that many will definitely make significant progress in this direction. I certainly think that private equity firms have the incentives, the resources, and the capabilities to start moving and make significant progress in this direction.
However, I think there are a number of limitations that they face, and I think many will find ways to address some of them. Someone might ask themselves: How do you attract world-class engineers to work for your company? This is really hard to do.
Your typical private equity firm is designed to celebrate the investor. When I look at my wonderful engineers, they want to be present when decisions are made. They want to have a say, like, “Hey, is this a good business or a bad business?”
I think if you go to a typical large-cap buyout firm, it would be very unusual to find a 25-year-old engineer who has any say in the investment profile. I think that will be difficult. I think the second difficult part is simply the time horizon, isn't that right?
The reality is that if you think about your typical fund investment, they'll tell you that it's a long-term horizon.
You're usually trying to figure out how you're going to start preparing packages to sell this thing in 3 years. It's just a completely different formulation of how we think about technological transformation and what kind of investment you're willing to bring here.
I really think the last thing is that we have an extremely high emphasis on the quality of the business and the team. That's not to say that other private-equity firms don't do it, but what we do is rare. We try to do 1 deal a year. That's all. We have no deployment cadence.
I don't have an investor group, and the investment partners are telling us, “Hey, it's like you guys haven't invested enough this year.” Our task is to do something similar. If that means we don't do anything this year, that's great. This is a very focused and thoughtful approach that's completely different.
We're going to touch a very small surface area of the world, and I expect all of these other private-equity firms to continue to deliver great results. But I think there are key differences in terms of the genetics of the companies that we've built. I hope to hold Sequence Equity for the rest of my life.
Just another question about your own underwriting and deficit. It seems like every CEO has talked about AI during their earnings reports over the past few years. People are aware of the changes, and they genuinely want to invest in these opportunities for their companies.
What are you looking for in management teams where you say, “We can help you become a leader, or even a more dominant leader”?
You can learn a lot about a management team just in terms of how they play the game in the industry in which they grew up. That's a key part of what we're looking for. Ultimately, Sequence has great engineers and a very talented team of investors, but I have no experience managing a broker. I have no experience managing a bank.
We rely heavily on the management team to be the best in their field, competing in their respective industries. This is a key component of how we evaluate management teams.
The 2nd element, which is more central to what we do, is that what we do is complicated. Change and transformation are difficult. As I mentioned earlier, the human-engineering element is the most difficult problem we will be working on.
When we think about the management teams we want to work with, they are teams that have been passionate about technology and have already started to lay the groundwork to drive change. These will be small teams working in the cloud. For example, they may have centralized their data infrastructure.
This probably means they have already started implementing OpenAI or Anthropic across their organization. They are making this effort, and that says a lot about a person who is willing to go ahead and do it at a moment when it's not yet obvious.
There's a lot of talk about whether there's any real return on investment in AI today.
Yeah, and also a lot of anxiety and worry about how you can engage your employee base with the fact that this is the direction the world is heading and that we're going to be on the front lines.
Baldwin is a great example of that. You have Trevor Baldwin, an exceptional CEO. He was at the beginning of someone who completely ran Entropic at Baldwin. They're working on a single instance of Applied Epic, which is their AMS—the insurance broker's primary operating system.
These are not easy things. They require a lot of effort, investment, and change to make them happen. When we think about what we look for in management teams, that's exactly what we're looking for: Are you well-versed in what you do in practice? And secondly, have you already led the change in terms of technology adoption and built on what's possible today?
I remember when we first started talking about the consistency thesis, I was a little confused about the idea of asset aggregation. I said something like, “Hey, there's the technology part, there's change management, there's management of the company itself, and then there's underwriting, and then there's dealmaking, right?”
There are many components to the way in which huge companies can change and win industries. I think it's a lot more complicated than people think, and I think it's better at scale.
I remember you and Alex describing it to me much more clearly. You said, “Actually, we think that managing change and running the business is going to be the hardest part. We need to put together a team to attack it, but we're also going to be working with people.”
As someone who's been trying to build a venture business from scratch, I said, “Oh, with existing managers.” But I now believe that's the right way to go, with the right management teams, of course.
12. Accomplishments at BankSouth
What have you actually accomplished at the bank, if anything? And what gives you confidence that you can do this at scale?
As I mentioned earlier, after the investment in March, we took a giant step back and thought, looking ahead to the next decade, what does a leading community bank look like?
If you break down a community bank into its simplest parts, it has 3 parts to the business. You have the part of the organization that seeks deposits. You have the part of the organization that's looking for loans. And then you have the core apparatus in the middle, which is closely tied to how we underwrite loans—deeply underwrite them and make sure that we're not only making loans to the right people in the community, so that we're serving the community properly, but we're also creating the right economic model for the banks.
If you think about what we've done today, historically, loan volumes at the average bank have grown linearly with the number of middle- and back-office staff. That's for no other reason than, for example, processing a loan is a complex task, and it requires a lot of people to be involved in that process.
We've spent a lot of time since working with the bank thinking about how we not only improve underwriting, but also make sure that everyone in the organization is focused on what they do best. How do we get the underwriting team to stop spending time inputting numbers and spend a lot more time on loans with exceptions?
Since we started working with the bank, which is about 6 months since our first investment, we've built a system that can take on all of the consumer loans in the organization. The average consumer loan underwriting volume today is down 94% since we started in March.
Another good example of what we've done is the timeline. This is a really powerful tool. We started implementing commercial-loan underwriting in the last few months, and we've functionally taken the average loan volume at the bank, which used to be 30 days, down to 11 days.
Why is this powerful and important? What we've done with the tools, essentially, is allow the organization to take on significantly more loans than ever before with the same number of staff.
It's pure luck. I'm not going to say that Sequence has anything to do with it, but in the 2nd quarter of this year, the bank's loan volume doubled compared to the 1st quarter. Historically, the bank has actually turned away customers. The middle and back offices, even though everyone is working very hard, have a limit to how much bandwidth they can take on.
Given the systems that we've put in place, the bank has actually been able to handle all of the loan volume without changing its underwriting standards at all. In fact, we've been able to do it with a much smaller team of underwriters than we had before our investment.
The reason the underwriting team is smaller is because 1 person retired and 1 moved to the front office. I think that's just an example of what we do: How do we make sure that we have the right people in the right places? How do we get them working on what they love? And how do we enable the organization to do more with less?
As a result, it's been possible for each person at the bank today to spend time doing what they do best. Loan officers spend more time in the field than they do writing loan letters. Loan underwriters are working on the most complex loans instead of thinking, “How do I figure out if we should give a loan for a boat when the person clearly has enough money already?”
That's what we've done at the bank so far. Looking ahead, we think we've laid the groundwork for what's going to be a really exciting roadmap for developing new products and new businesses, giving loan officers and relationship managers new tools so they can sell more products, and thinking about how we start delivering a differentiated customer experience that no one else in the industry can provide.
13. Founder Lessons
When we met, you were leaving private equity at Lone Pine, a career investor. What's the biggest surprise or realization since starting the company?
I get asked that question by my friends in the investment business. If you took a giant step back, maybe it's the level of empathy that I have for founders today compared to when I was running a private business. Lone Pine is like night and day.
It's great to see people take an idea and build something from nothing. It's not easy to get people to join you on your journey. It's not easy to get capital to join you on that journey. But it's incredibly fun and rewarding.
I have huge gratitude for the people who supported us early on, like you, Joe and Drew from EVC, and all of our early employees.
And you know, I would say that the highs are the highs, and the lows are the lows. There were days when it was extremely, extremely lonely, but I couldn’t have had more fun. All I can say is that everything Elon and Jensen talk about as being extremely painful is extremely true. But it was a lot of fun.
14. Story of Dell Partnership
I love this partnership of equals between Sequence Holdings and the Dell family office. Tell me about how that came about. It’s a great story.
As you can imagine, in a private buyout scenario, you need a capital commitment. As ambitious as we are, and as amazing as our partners are, most people don’t have billions of dollars to back up an equity commitment letter for a private buyout. So we started spending time with a number of partners in the market to think about approaching Baldwin together and explore the thesis that we had put forward.
We met with the Dell family office, and I have to give a huge thank-you to Michael Dell and Dan Betar, who is the head of global private equity, for working so closely with us to underwrite the deal, underwrite our technology platform, underwrite our drive for technology transformation, and support us in this transaction. They’ve been great partners for us. We’re going to co-manage Bolden One together, and we expect to be partners for a long time.
15. Career and Investment Approach
So you’ve been a private investor in the markets, a public investor, an operator, and, I guess, someone who’s taken a company private. How do you think your career has impacted how you forecast the markets, how you look at the markets, and the deployment of this technology?
I’ve been very fortunate in my career to have the opportunity to play a lot of different roles and learn the different, so to speak, crafts of investing. After college, I worked at Goldman Sachs. I went to work at Apollo, which was just an incredible experience: learning how to structure deals, how to think carefully about capital structures, how to understand credit agreements and documents, how to develop management incentive plans, and actually learning about blockchain and private equity management.
The opportunity to go to Lone Pine was really an opportunity to start studying the best companies in the world. What’s amazing about Lone Pine, and working in an organization where I can get exposure to the entire world of public companies and have the challenge of figuring out which companies are the best in the world, is just an incredible opportunity to learn more. What makes NVIDIA great? What makes Microsoft great? What makes Visa great? I think you get—and this might be an overused term these days—a real taste of what a great business is.
You also learn to appreciate the benefits of long-term compounding. It was a really powerful 5 years that I spent at Lone Pine studying the best companies in the world and realizing very deeply that the best companies in the world compound interest at rates that no one had ever thought of.
Being able to go and build a private equity business at Lone Pine was really an opportunity to start spending time on the cutting edge of technology. It meant spending time with founders who are working on really hard problems that other people didn’t really understand, seeing that it takes someone wanting something, not going from nothing to something, and going really, really deep into understanding where technology is taking the world.
If I think about how and why I think about the world the way I do, it’s a combination of that experience—which is how I think about ownership and the benefits of ownership—with a taste of what a great business is and a real understanding of the benefits of long-term compounding. When you combine that with world-class engineering and cutting-edge technology, that’s what’s possible.
I think that’s what defines our approach to investing here at Sequence Holdings: how we combine all the skills in what I think are the key areas of my investing career.
16. Value of Exceptional People
You’ve never officially been an early-stage venture capitalist. What do you think this class of asset manager is missing?
If I were to take a giant leap back and reimagine my approach to private equity today, if I ever went back to it—which I won’t—I’d look for exceptional people working on complex problems in large markets. If I’ve learned anything from my experience at Sequence, and from talking to other founders today, it’s that ideas are cheap and execution is very difficult.
Truly exceptional people will always find a way to make something work. That’s probably because they bring in someone who highlights their weaknesses. Maybe they’re able, with enough persistence, to find the right people to support them in something that everyone else thinks is crazy.
So if I were to go back and do it again, I think betting on exceptional people is the only thing that matters. I just think that the vast majority of other things, whether it’s the best idea I’ve ever seen or the hottest breakthrough you’ve seen in a short period of time, are important signals.
But at the end of the day, it’s a business about people, especially in the early stages. People who are working on really hard problems in really big markets should be supported all the time, even if it seems crazy. I think the upside of supporting those people pretty much makes up for the rest.
Isn’t that the purest approach to venture capital?
I think that’s absolutely right.
Mr. Michael Lee, a private equity and public markets specialist, says that you have to support great people in big markets.
That’s absolutely right. I think that’s the essence of the game. I think that’s also true in public markets.
If I think about the best investments we’ve made at Lone Pine, and if I think about the best companies I’ve worked with in the market today, it was something like, “Find exceptional people.” I think the best example of that is meeting Jensen Huang in 2017. It’s a little crazy to think about that at that time, today, that things weren’t like they are today.
He was extremely consistent: the clarity of thought, the incredible execution. He was able to surround himself with the smartest people in the world who are incredibly committed, and he was constantly finding ways to reshape his business to compete in an ever-changing market.
He found exceptional people who are working in big markets, and I think whether it’s early stage or late stage, most people would be surprised how that always happens.
That’s a great note to end on. Thank you so much, Michael.
Thanks for inviting me.