OSF_Rekt：REKT 暴跌原因、加密市场更新及更多｜TG 播客

I’m good, dude. Welcome back. I appreciate you joining on zero notice. How are you?

I’m good, man. It’s good to be back. Last time I was here, I saw that little table of coin performances, and I was like, “Man, I need to get back on TJ’s stream,” because it was a good omen last time. So we’re back.

It did like a 30-million-X afterward. If we’re in a similar spot here, I know you’ve done a bunch of media today, so I won’t keep you super long. But yesterday was kind of crazy, dude.

I traded and sold, but it was just for a scalp. We were on stream, and I was looking at charts or whatever when people started saying, “Yo, REKT, REKT, REKT.” I pulled up the chart, and my first thought was, “Okay, the token is down like 75% from its ATH and is also down an additional 70% in 15 minutes. I don’t know what happened, but something probably broke. I know this guy’s not rugging. I should just buy this.” So I closed my eyes and clicked the green button.

I was reading some of your follow-up tweets, and I actually had the IMF guys on four or five months ago. It’s been a crazy unraveling on that side, but it is what it is. I could just get right to it: what happened yesterday with REKT?

Yeah, look, I think the IMF guys are getting a bit of blame. It’s not really their fault. IMF is built on Morpho. Morpho is a decentralized borrowing and lending platform, so there are tons of vaults on Morpho, and Morpho has had its own issues as well if you look back through the timeline over the last few weeks.

Essentially, anyone can come in and borrow or lend on any asset that’s listed on it, right? What IMF allows for is a borrowing and lending market on memecoins. It’s the same thing you see with NFTs. For example, what happened to us yesterday is the same as when you see tweets saying, “Oh my God, there are 100 Pudgy Penguins or 100 Apes whose loans are about to get liquidated on Blur or on Gondi,” and then the floor price drops, people buy it, and it moves back up.

Basically, the exact same thing happened to us, but it was the memecoin version of it. IMF allows there to be an active lending market on a bunch of Ethereum memecoins. So that’s what happened.

There was a lot of leverage on it. A ton of people had used REKT as collateral to borrow USDS, which used to be DAI, and then used that to buy even more REKT. It’s basically leverage, but instead of having your stablecoins or Bitcoin as collateral, REKT was the collateral.

As REKT started to nuke, your position became crazy underwater. I think people added more REKT to try and get their liquidation levels lower, but as soon as one of them hit, it created this massive liquidity cascade. Something like almost 5% of the supply was in this thing, and the entire thing got completely wiped out and nuked yesterday, hence the 75% drop.

It was pretty wild because I was sitting here with a shit ton of work to do, and then I saw it drop, and it just kept going. I was thinking, “What the fuck is going on here?” Immediately, I was like, “Fuck it, it must be the IMF stuff.” I guess the people who were borrowing on that just got liquidated, sadly.

So people are really doing this with looping meme—or I don’t want to call them meme, but looping low-liquidity alts like this? Seriously?

Yeah. When I look back through the transactions, a lot of it happened two or three months ago, when the token was a lot higher. They probably did it and thought, “Oh, cool. The token has to drop 80% for me to get liquidated. That will never happen,” right?

Obviously, in the last two or three months, every altcoin has gotten absolutely decimated, so it got closer and closer. Maybe someone saw it and thought, “Fuck, if I just dump a bit, I can trigger all these liquidations.”

The good thing for us is that there isn’t an active perp market on REKT. If there was, someone could have shorted it on perps, done this, made a shit ton of money, and then probably longed it and made a bunch of money on the way up.

I was trying to trade on—didn’t you buy REKT on Hyperliquid?

Yeah. We have REKT spot on Hyperliquid, but we don’t have enough volume on Hyperliquid. To get REKT perps, you need the whole Hyperliquid community to push it and get behind it, and we don’t quite have that mindshare on Hyperliquid yet. But you can trade REKT spot on Hyperliquid.

That was my first move. I went straight to Hyperliquid. I was trying to trade perps. I was looking at the chart like, “What am I doing here?”

Like, I don’t know what to do here. That’s not how we do this. Does DeFi on these alts help at all? Do you encourage it? Is it good for liquidity? Is it good for anything?

If it’s used within reason, yeah. If you borrow a little bit, put up REKT as collateral, borrow a little bit against it, make some sort of payment, and get the money back, then that’s useful. It’s like taking a payday loan and generally trying to pay it back when you get paid.

But that’s not what people do, right? I think the most common use of this kind of stuff, especially in NFTs, is that people treat it like a put option. If you take a loan on something at, let’s say, 80% LTV, you’re basically purchasing a put option with some sort of premium. You have the option to decide whether you pay your loan back or not, depending on what the price does by the maturity of the loan.

I don’t think that’s what happened here, because I think people were actually just taking leverage—using those stables to buy more REKT. I have this function called Accelerate, and that’s what caused the big pump in SPX, a big pump in MOG, and, I guess, a big pump in US earlier in the year.

Really?

Yeah. Not US so much, but the others.

Just looping.

It’s just looping. It’s literally just looping.

And you think that’s what sent it super high?

No, it’s not what caused the whole run-up. But there was that day when it went from—

Yeah, from like 1.8 to 2.1 or something.

It was the day it got listed on IMF. I’d be curious to check out these other coins. I think MOG actually suffered its fair share of liquidations on IMF. I’m curious to see how much is still standing on SPX, because for a while there was quite a lot there. You can probably check it online.

I mean, the MOG thing is down pretty atrociously.

Yeah, someone in the chat was saying MOG was a big sufferer. The MOG one was bad. They definitely got hit pretty hard.

It puts you in an interesting spot now with REKT. You sort of get a great cleansing reset, if you will. I would imagine most leverage is completely gone at this point. A lot of overweight token holders—if you were going to sell, you probably sold at this stage, right?

So you’ve sold at this point, and you’re in a sort of reset. Do you think about it like that?

Yeah, absolutely, man. If you were a new buyer of REKT and went and looked at the holders list and saw that this Morpho thing owned 5% of it, you’d be like, “I’m not sure.” Obviously, it depends on the liquidation levels, but you’d be a little bit concerned. Whereas now, that’s been completely reset.

It went from owning 5% to owning 0.27%, which is worth $200,000. The leverage has been completely reset, and those holdings are now distributed. They’re out there. REKT holders have actually gone up in the last 24 hours, so I think both of those are good things.

Like you said, the reason why you bought it, and why loads of other people bought it, whether you flipped it or not, is that they knew it wasn’t a rug. It wasn’t like OB had rugged it, or the team had sold their supply, or anything like that. People know I’m not going to do that.

I think it’s very rare that you get a situation where you have a 75% drop in a 15-minute candle and a complete reset of leverage, but there’s an honest, hardworking, doxxed team behind it. We’ve got so much more to come, and we’ve had a really strong last few weeks and months in terms of what we’ve delivered.

From an operational and fundamental standpoint, things are fucking amazing, but we’re battling with the crypto market. I think it’s really interesting. I’m biased, obviously, but if I were looking at it and had capital, thinking, “What the fuck do I buy here?”—that’s pretty interesting in my opinion.

One of the things I was saying on stream after trading it a little bit is that I’ve generally been in spot BTC, spot Zcash, and cash. When things start to trend toward a bear market, things just break, and you can sit around in cash and wait for things to break. If you have decent domain knowledge of what you would generally like to own when things break—who’s legitimate and who’s not—you can pick up the pieces. That’s kind of what 10/10 was, right?

You could have bought the HYPE wick at around $30. At the peak, in the $50s, you’d be up around 75% from a couple of weeks ago if you had just traded 10/10. You can wait for shit to break, and then the good coins will continue to exist. The bad ones won’t, but the good ones always will.

It feels like shit breaks because there is leverage. There’s leverage in the system, whether it’s on Morpho, perpetuals, or whatever it is. Someone else might have leverage somewhere else in their portfolio, and that affects their current position. There’s always leverage, and leverage increases as the bull market increases because people get greedy and want to make more money, until something triggers and it all implodes.

As you said, it causes things to break. We broke yesterday because of other shit and the market going lower, and eventually that caused REKT to break. 10/10 broke because of various things. I think a smart move is to wait, because more things will probably break. There’s probably other stuff out there.

We’ve watched these things break, and they’re not really that big a deal, but if you compare it to 2022, the shit that broke after Luna was 3AC, then Voyager and Celsius, and eventually it turned out FTX was shit. Things just broke one after another. It’s all these bodies that come to the surface.

Being patient to find good opportunities makes sense. But when they come, you have to trade them. You can’t just sit there scared. You have to pull the trigger, knowing that even if it’s just a scalp, you’ll probably make money, because anything that wicks down 75% or 80% will come back up. It will definitely come back up in a short time frame, and you just have to be locked in to take these opportunities.

By the way, what did you do yesterday when this was happening? There were a couple of wallets—I don’t know if it was you or who it was. I think one wallet, or two wallets combined, slammed around $1 million into the token.

No, dude. What happened was that this whole thing got liquidated, right? Then one wallet started slamming about $1 million into the token, but they started levering up on IMF.

The IMF holdings on Morpho went from 5% down to almost 0%, back up to around 2.5% overnight. Then this morning, European time, that guy got liquidated again. We wicked all the way down twice. We had 2 massive wicks down. It was crazy.

That was the guy wading in around $1 million or whatever. He was doing it all on leverage. I don’t know if someone was trying to nuke it on purpose or if they were just being a degen. I’m not really sure. This morning, the market was pretty grim—Bitcoin dropped below $90,000—so I don’t know what the fuck was going on there.

Seriously. No joke.

When I saw the second one, I was a little like, “All right. Yeah, let’s go. What’s going on?” I don’t really want to step in. I think it was Jack in our team chat saying, “Yo, it’s happening again.” I was like, “I’m not going to be a hero twice.”

The guy who slammed it got liquidated again. It’s crazy.

He got wiped out for his entire position. I have no idea what that guy was thinking, or whether it was intentional or unintentional.

When it happens twice in a row, people lose a bit of confidence. People are like, “Fuck.” We had to work really hard today just to put stuff out there, put out updates, and say, “This is what happened.”

You had really strong comments, by the way.

Yeah. It’s just me saying shit, but you have to do one of 2 things. You can sit there and torture yourself—“Oh my God, this is so bad”—and not say anything and just freeze, which is what most people will do.

Or you have to put your balls on your forehead, as I like to say, and go out there and call it like it is. This is what happened, this is what we’re doing to try to fix it, and this is the situation.

I think it fills people with confidence, because the people who are currently holding and still supporting this project need to feel confident that I’m the right person to be at the helm and that we can steer through this. If I don’t say anything, they’re all going to shit themselves and sell, even if they shouldn’t.

Sometimes you just have to take some ownership of it and be active, even if it’s not your fault or it’s something you can’t control. I did a stream earlier today about it and put some tweets out. I also wrote up a 1-page document that we’re going to send out to people.

You just have to do something. You can’t sit there and die. Sink or swim, right?

Balls on the forehead is awesome. That was the thing: right when it happened, they were like, “Wreck, wreck,” and I opened your Twitter and you had already tweeted right away. I was like, “Okay, bet. He’s—”

Luckily, I was still awake, man. I’ve got so much work to do right now that I’ve been up late every night. Luckily, I was awake, because if I had gone to bed, I would have missed the entire thing, and it could have been worse because I wouldn’t have been putting updates out about it.

Mando was in bed. Everyone was asleep. Mando ended up getting up.

The first thing I did was text Mando. I was like, “What’s happening?”

Yeah, yeah.

I texted him, “Wait, what? What’s good?”

I won’t keep you too long, but what is the current state of Wrecked? When you came on last, it was right after 7-Eleven. I think you had just done that in L.A., which I missed, sadly. You had just done the 7-Eleven collaboration, which was awesome, and a lot has happened since then. What is the current state of Wrecked? What has happened since then?

Since then, we’ve sold just over 1 million drinks in about 11 months, which was our lofty target this time last year, and we’ve managed to achieve it.

We’ve just launched across 200 Giant Eagle stores. Maybe you’ve had a Giant Eagle.

Giant Eagle? I know Giant Eagle. They’re in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. I think there’s one in West Virginia.

Yeah, so we’ve just launched in those stores, and we’re working with 2 pretty big distributors on that. That’s our first—

How many stores? You said 200?

Just under 200 stores. It’s pretty serious. It’s quite legitimate. They’ve already had an order placed—a purchase order for more drinks—and it’s only been there since Friday.

If we can crush it on that side of things, I think it really opens up a whole world of traditional drinks distribution and drink sales. Right now, it’s just these sparkling waters, but we’re going to have energy drinks and energy powders next year as well.

We’re doing that collaboration with FaZe Esports next year too, which was the highest-selling energy product in 7-Eleven stores in the U.S. in 2023.

So there’s going to be a FaZe Wrecked?

There’s going to be a FaZe Wrecked energy product.

That’s awesome.

Yeah, it’s sick. It’s going to be really sick. There’s a lot of shit coming.

On the actual drink side of things, we’re killing it, I think. Next year is going to be very exciting. As we hit those milestones, it’s almost like you tell the traditional drinks guys about what we’re doing in crypto, and you tell the crypto guys what we’re doing with drinks, and each party gets excited about the other party.

If we can keep pushing that story and keep hitting the targets we’re hitting, I think next year is going to be very exciting.

So, I'm very pumped for it. It's actually kind of nice to have this leverage reset and wipe out at this time of year, because when we start launching and rolling out this other stuff, it's going to be really nice, clean positioning as we get it back up.

So, are you guys making a lot of money right now, or doing well?

We're doing well. Let me put it this way: we're doing much better than I thought we would be this time last year. The token has been out for roughly a year, and this time last year I was like, “Oh, yeah, we sold all these drinks, and maybe we can get the token to a $50 million market cap or whatever, and just keep going with our cool, Wrecked vibes.”

But then we somehow went super mainstream at various points this year, and that's when I realized, man, this opportunity is actually way bigger than I even realized it was at the beginning. Especially when you go down the functional energy, focus, hydration—those kinds of products are big right now.

If you do the 200 Giant Eagle stores and they sell really well, what happens after that? Are you in Wegmans and Walmart? Is that on the table?

Yeah, it all goes through your distributors, right? The distributors we work with work with some of the biggest brands out there—all the brands that you guys will have heard of. We'll put announcements out on that later this week, I think.

If we do really well on Giant Eagle, those guys are distributing to tons of other stores across different states. They're like, “Okay, this thing is selling. We're making money on it. Let's go into these stores, let's go into this store, let's go into this state.”

And it starts growing from there.

So, as long as we crush this first one, there's a very, very clear playbook for these guys to steer the growth, if that makes sense. Eventually, it gets to the way it usually works. It gets to a point where someone's like, “Okay, I want 10 million drinks,” and you're like, “Fuck, how do I fund that? How do I manufacture that many?”

Most of these distributors have relationships with, partners in, or are owned by companies like Molson Coors or PepsiCo—these big drinks companies that eventually just buy a stake in a company or acquire the company, because that's where you eventually get the funding from, or economies of scale from manufacturing and logistics and that kind of stuff.

The thing for us is, if we can do really well at this novel way of selling drinks with the Wrecked coin, and if it works in stores, you're going to be able to claim Wrecked coin just by getting the code printed on your receipt. We've got the technology and stuff ready for that, so I think it's kind of interesting.

What all these stores are telling us is that a lot of these guys missed Prime. When Prime came out, people turned down Prime because they were like, “I don't get it,” and they got into a lot of trouble with their superiors because they were like, “Why the fuck did you guys not put this on?”

So they're all like, “Okay, when the next thing comes that I don't get, that's kind of like Prime, we're just going to go all in.” We've literally had 2 big supermarkets tell us that exact thing, basically. I think it's ours to nail, really. It's kind of on the plate for us to kill it—we just have to go out there and execute it.

It takes time to get these things done. That world moves much more slowly than our world does. In our world, you're waiting straight away, right? This world takes weeks or months to get stuff done. But we'll get it done. We'll get it done.

Celsius is worth $12 billion. You know that.

I know, dude. In the last 12 months—sorry, in the last 12 months—there have been 4 major acquisitions or capital raises. Olipop raised at a $2 billion market cap. Poppi got acquired by PepsiCo, I think, for $1.9 billion or $1.8 billion. Ghost Energy got acquired by Keurig Dr Pepper for $1 billion. Alani Nu got acquired by Celsius for $2 billion.

These are all companies that are between 7 and 9 years old. They're not old companies, right? They've gone from $0 to around $500 million in revenue in the space of just 7 years in some of those cases. They're all within the functional space: clean energy, gut health, hydration, all that kind of stuff.

That entire sector is growing at around a 10% compound annual growth rate versus 6% in traditional beverages. Our pivot into that spot is like, fuck, if we just nail this thing—and we're not even on Amazon yet, for example. It's only from our website. When we turn on that traditional switch and traditional marketing spend, which we've done zero of, it can get really, really interesting.

I think that's the upside for this whole story. It's sort of like, you've got to bet on us to be able to pull that off. That's the bet, basically.

What percentage do you guys have of the token?

About 33% of it is owned by the token foundation. Those coins are earmarked for community rewards when we sell drinks and for other community activations. Obviously, as the coin goes up, the value of that is massive.

When we were at a $600 million market cap, that was like $200 million. Now it's worth about $30 million. It depends on the price of the token, obviously, but that's a big war chest we have there. Even now, it's still fucking $30 million, right?

There's no other drinks company that hasn't raised capital from institutions, is under a year old, and has $30 million. At one point, that was $200 million.

Wait, this is a side note, but with the Prime thing, what happens if you're a manufacturer, or one of these store chains, and you pass up on Prime? How does that work exactly?

So you mean what happened when people turned it down?

What are the long-term effects of that? You just lose business, obviously, because people want the drink.

Yeah, for sure. I don't know what it was like in the US, but in the UK, when Prime came out, all the big supermarkets here turned it down, and they ended up going to corner stores, gas stations, that kind of stuff.

And people were desperate.

Those guys—yeah. They were selling, I remember seeing, a Prime Energy drink for 15 quid, 15 pounds, which was probably like $25 at the time.

Oh.

Because everyone wanted them and there was no supply, right? These guys were making so much money. Imagine you're usually making whatever it is, a 20–30% margin. These guys were fucking making 200–300% margins on these drinks, and they made a ton of money.

I think Prime did something like $1 billion or $1.5 billion of revenue in its first year. It's down a lot since then, but they sold in the hundreds of millions. All these guys lost out on money and lost out on the hype. It was such a big viral thing that happened during that time. Everyone was like, “I need to buy a Prime drink.”

It's really bad if you're a big supermarket and you don't have it but everyone else does—or even worse, you're losing business to a fucking corner store.

Yeah, exactly.

Exactly.

Makes sense. Dude, I appreciate you coming on. I know it was a quick one, but, like—

Incredible comments.

You said you have some announcements to make this week, I think. What are you putting out?

Yeah, we've got a few things ready to announce. I'm just figuring it out. It's always like, you want to time it well with the market.

Yeah. Make sure it makes sense.

We are doing our first merch drop this week. Maybe I'll send you some, actually. We're doing our first merch drop this week.

Please. I'll buy it. Just make sure I get to buy it.

Yeah, they're pretty good. We've got golf shirts as well, so we're doing that this week too. We're just trying to roll that stuff out. There's still a lot more to come.

I'm not worried about doing anything operationally. We've just got to keep the vibes up, because our community is amazing and they've supported us from day one, and I just want to do right by these guys. In terms of things like this, we've just got to step up and—balls on the forehead, man. Balls on the forehead.

Balls on the fucking forehead. Obie, it's a pleasure, bro. I always love getting a chance to talk to you, man. Thank you for coming on last minute.

Of course, man. Cheers for having me.