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从 InstructGPT 到 Jev:ChatGPT 之后是什么 — Diogo Almeida,TypeSafe 联合创始人兼 CEO

swyxDiogo Almeida

AI与软件技术企业经营
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TL;DR
  • Diogo Almeida 发布 Jev,押注一种新的模型类别——“System One”或“large programmable”模型,让“代码成为消费者”,而不是让聊天成为终点。 它不同于 RLHF(“取悦人类”)或 RLVR(“优化基准测试”);TypeSafe 称自己的任务为 RLCD,目标是提升模型用于程序化调用时的可靠性,以及单位美元对应的智能前沿,这也是 Jevons paradox 的由来。在他的框架里,这是 LLM 的第2次到第3次重大 North Star 转向:“RLVR 在我看来是 0.2,而且我觉得这已经算慷慨了。”
  • Jev 的采用是真实的,而不是游客式流量:上线不到1周,日处理量就超过 1万亿 tokens,“即使在夜里……也一直在运转”,说明调用者是机器。 对开发者平台而言,等待名单数量“无关紧要”;稀缺资源是速率限制,因为软件允许用户一次性指定机械性任务,再让它在后台持续运行。上线前收入几乎为零,超过一半测试者“完全没看懂”,这也挑战了正统的产品市场匹配判断。
  • 他的 mode dropping 论证解释了,为什么针对长字符串的错误直觉不能直接套用到经过 RLHF 塑造的模型上。 经过校准、覆盖多种模式的模型会保留离群结果;类似 GAN 的 mode dropping 则会删除少数输出,在可见错误受到重罚时让生成变得保守。这或许能保住长字符串,却让字符串模型成为糟糕的决策引擎。对此,他把校准、置信度阈值以及 choice/score/null 等类型化输出视为产品层面的回应。
  • 他强烈反对把公开基准和演示作为主要证据,但并不反对测量本身。 他更认可的路径是:“先靠感觉和信任,直到把它放进工作流,再针对该工作流进行评估。” TypeSafe 保留内部评测,但把“不去投机取巧”视为顶层优先级。即便这曾经损害融资,他也坚持:“没人相信我们……我们有原则。我们会坚持自己的立场。”
  • 在他看来,API 中的安全对齐属于类型错误,但他并不反对安全这一原则。 依赖项中的拒答可能让软件随机失败。安全对齐或许适合 ChatGPT 这类第一方产品;在基础设施层,他把智能比作数据库,认为不应把终端使用限制写进技术层,因为那会割裂通用能力。
  • 他的 coding agent 判断是:现有头部 agent 建立在单模型世界之上,而开放 agent 可以试验多模型设计。 他下一步的研究方向是打造“摆脱 KV cache 暴政的 coding agents”:带标签的子任务树、并行 agent 之间共享状态,以及低成本查询历史上下文,而不是把持续学习当成一个独立问题。
  • 他的宏观判断非常明确:“5年内 TFP 增长率:3%。” 他认为,尽管模型已经能解决困难的数学问题,但目前在具有经济价值的工作中的自动化占比仍大致为零,并预测会出现一场 SaaS 被全面增强的“逆 SaaSpocalypse”,而不是大规模失业。他承诺部署后的模型不会被静默替换,但没有做出普遍的长期支持承诺;可能的模型规模、LTS 以及其他机器原生智能形态仍在考虑中。
  • 他同时否定“跟上前沿”的共识,以及很大一部分 neo-lab 浪潮。 在他看来,所谓 pacing 的论证默认所有人都必须在不受限的行动空间里继续做更多 RLVR;而对 Jev 这种形态而言,“最优的量就是零”。他认为大多数 neo-lab 都很弱,除非拥有真正的 North Star 任务;但对确实找到 North Star 的研究者,他建议继续追下去。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 上线周:情绪“从未如此糟糕”,却从未如此贴近现实

  • Jev 占据时间线后,Diogo 的状态是:“我现在就是一个衣衫褴褛的人的尸体”,但在精神上得到了验证——“整个 AI 行业就像嘉年华里的哈哈镜屋,每个人都疯了……至少这一周,我和现实的同步程度更高了。”他的核心判断是:“基于 AI 的经济革命重新回到了议程上。”
  • 他有意把 Discord Town Hall 放在 VIP 投资人会面之前;当时服务器约有10万人。“在我那张巨大的日程表里,如果社区不是其中一项,我会觉得很脏。”他甚至考虑过一边走去录音室,一边主持 Town Hall。
  • swyx 提到 Twitter 上有3个话题正在上热榜,Diogo 随后发现自己看到的是个性化信息流,尴尬地说:“我是个新手。”

2. Jev 是什么:让代码成为消费者的 System One 模型

  • 用他的话说,这是一个新的模型类别——“machine-native、System One、large programmable”,不同于预训练 LLM(“互联网的自动补全”)、RLHF 聊天机器人和 RLVR。“目标是让代码成为消费者……让东西直接被代码消费,这也是 type-safe 这个名字的由来。”
  • Jev 是这类模型的品牌,目标位于“单位美元智能的前沿”,名字来自 Jevons paradox;发布时强调的取舍包括可靠性、成本、校准和速度。他们没有采用“decision models”这个名称,因为“System One 超越了这个概念”;Diogo 说,他们手里还有更多工作。
  • 发布后的一个解脱是:“现在我终于不用再向父母回答那个问题了,因为 ChatGPT 可以直接给他们解释。”

3. mode dropping 如何解释它与 LeCun 悲观曲线的脱节

  • Diogo 认为 Yann LeCun 的判断是最接近事实的观点之一,但他用 mode dropping 解释了那张著名曲线所呈现的表面矛盾:随着序列长度增加,错误概率会上升。
  • 在经过校准、覆盖多种模式的分布中,离群结果是预期之内的;类似 GAN 的 mode dropping 则会丢弃少数类别,只保留常见输出。对于长字符串,显而易见的错误很容易被发现,因此模型会变得极度保守。
  • 对他的业务而言,关键在于:这种保守性可以保住长字符串,却会让字符串模型成为糟糕的决策引擎——“这种校准对字符串的概率分布来说是彻头彻尾的毒药。”
  • 对 LeCun 提出的 JEPA 修复方案,他采取了务实的保留态度:“早期研究真的很酷。现在实用吗?可能不该这么说。”他坚持认为,自己的品牌“除了不受控制之外,是实用的”。Scaling laws 可能需要指数级更多资源,才能换来通常低于线性的增益;除非这些增益极其有价值,否则看起来就是一笔糟糕的投资。

4. API 中的安全对齐属于类型错误

  • Diogo 说自己并不反对安全这一原则,但认为安全对齐通常与用户需求错位。能力对齐——按照用户想要的方式行事——“对软件工程师来说很棒”;安全对齐则是“指令遵循的反面”,因为它遵循的是实验室的限制。对第一方产品可以接受,但“在 API 里,这太离谱了……太反用户了。”
  • 具体的失败模式是:Claude Code 拒绝读取 DNA.py——“抱歉,我不能读取 DNA.py”——虽然烦人,但还能继续工作,用户也会因为“斯德哥尔摩综合征”而逐渐容忍。但如果依赖项在后台拒绝,“难道你希望软件仅仅因为用户发了一条奇怪消息,就随机崩掉吗?”
  • swyx 追问:“如果我们拿它去杀人怎么办?”Diogo 给出的答案是分层的:他希望人们把它用于好的用途,也会“把拇指压在秤上”推动这些用途,但“我会在技术层这么做吗?绝对不会,因为那会割裂智能。”在他的模型里,智能“更像数据库,而不是同事”:“我们是一个 API……我们不该知道下游用户在做什么。”

5. 基准不如感觉和信任——一种曾让他们融资受挫的立场

  • 在预览期因服务条款对基准测试产生误解后——swyx 说团队会删除相关条款,Diogo 则表示自己已经让律师核查——Diogo 解释了他们的立场:智能有“一种不可言传的东西……好模型的气味”,而公开基准“极其、极其容易被投机利用”。
  • 他的例子是:一些实验室收集看起来像 MMLU 的数据来提高分数,“这不过是多绕了几步的基准测试”。
  • 替代方案是:“先靠感觉和信任,直到把它放进工作流,再针对该工作流进行评估。” TypeSafe 要做的是不断提升“可靠性的几个9”。他们保留内部评测,但“要有很强的纪律,才能不去钻这些评测的空子”;不自欺、诚实面对智能水平是顶层优先级。“我们必须追求真相。”
  • 他们把原则的代价当作荣誉:“去年我们融资时,没人相信我们……他们只想看基准,我们说不做。那是在奖励坏人。”这也揭示了质量与时间的取舍:“如果我们愿意,Jev 1年半前就能发布,只要我们不介意它很蠢。”

6. 他们是数据实验室,不是模型实验室;也不会用用户数据训练

  • “我们永远会极其重视数据……模型能力就是数据。数据复杂得难以置信,而这正是那些9的来源。”他们正在“无限招数据人才。真的,无限。”
  • 所有训练数据都是合成数据,而且是有意如此。现实使用遵循幂律——“你最终会对它过拟合,也会被它割裂”——而他们瞄准的是一个科幻式未来:模型成为通用基础设施,“有点像 LLM 是 UDP,而我们的模型是 TCP”。
  • 即便拥有今天的全部数据,也意味着对当下过拟合。他眼中的优秀数据人才更像艺术家,而不是标注员:他们研究认知核心,找到其中的崎岖之处,再针对过去、现在和未来进行手术式修补。“一般情况而非特殊情况”要求每一次都调用智能。

7. RLCD:第3次 North Star 转向,也是他最苦涩的教训

  • 他的层级判断大致归于 Suchin:“粗略地说,算法胜过算力。数据显然重要得多。真正做对任务、找到 North Star,则是最难、最重要的事。”在 LLM 领域,任务已经发生了“两次,也许是2.2次”转向:RLHF 负责指令遵循,RLVR 是“一次很小的编辑”,现在则是 RLCD——“让程序进入闭环”。
  • 他通过多个历史案例解释,为什么“RLHF”本质上是一个任务,而不是一种算法。他并不完全确定早期后空翻工作的准确归属,随后谈到 OpenAI 的 Learning to Summarize:这是在语言模型上运行 PPO,目标却是一个定义不清的任务。Dario、Alec Radford 和 Ryan 都与相关工作有关。
  • “关键不在 PPO,那部分不重要。”North Star 是指令遵循;正如 DPO 及其后继方法即便不使用原始算法,也仍然属于 RLHF。
  • 对 swyx 将其总结为可编程 AI、让人类退出闭环这一点,他补充了一个限制:必须保持实用。有些程序化类型可能“强得离谱”,但如果技术还没准备好,暂时无法部署也并不是什么悲剧。

8. Jev 之前的世界是一场悲剧;他担心的 AI 寒冬已经避免

  • 他离开 OpenAI 的情绪核心是:“如果 AI 寒冬真的发生,而我没有尽一切他妈的可能去避免它,我会认为自己负有个人责任。”这既是因为他认为 RLHF 方向扩大了过度承诺与实际交付之间的差距,也因为自己没有在这一方向上全力投入。上线后,他改口说:“我担心的 AI 寒冬已经避免了。”
  • 他最喜欢的挑衅式问题是:AI 怎么能解决数学中的 Millennium Prize Problems,却仍然无法自动化基础的机械性工作?它是“一台被强化的自动化引擎,只是插头插错了”。
  • 他的绝对判断是:如果 Tessl 消失,人们可能需要1-2年才能追上,但“这件事已经完成了,对吧?它改变了技术史的路径。”他也承认自己最初的傲慢:“我以为整个项目一周就能完成……我错得离谱,所以我要向 OpenAI 的所有人道歉。”

9. 数据:日处理1万亿 tokens,以及为什么等待名单不重要

  • 他主动披露的里程碑是:“每天1万亿 tokens 已经很多了……这不是短暂的日处理量。即使在夜里也一直在运转,所以你知道调用它的是机器,而不只是人们试用。”
  • 他明确否定注册数量:“对开发者平台来说,等待名单数量不重要……如果世界上每个人都只写几个查询,相比一个超级用户用一个不断创造价值的 for loop,这也只是舍入误差。”真正令人担忧的变量是速率限制。
  • “营销天才”的说法被他戳破了——“那只是我们自己做的。我们没有营销人员,也正在招聘”——同时他把功劳归给平台团队:“我觉得,在经历史无前例的发布后,我们的 uptime 里有更多的9,甚至超过了 Anthropic。”
  • swyx 提到上线视频约有3600万次观看,Diogo 更新为3800万。他将其与 Navio 的7400万次、Fable 5 的5700万次相比,并称 Jev 目前是2026年 Neo Lab 发布中排名第一的项目。Diogo 不接受这个分类:“我根本不在乎自己是不是 neo-lab……我在乎的是成为可靠的开发者平台。”

10. 确定性不是正确的 North Star,稳健性才是

  • swyx 问为什么没有 seed 参数。Diogo 将问题重新定义为:“可靠性其实是一个总括概念——每当 AI 无法自动化某件事,原因都是某种形式的可靠性问题。”确定性——相同输入得到相同输出——“对单元测试来说有点意思”,但“不是正确的 North Star”;稳健性——相似输入得到相似输出——才是“人们被 AI 做决策坑到的地方”。
  • 他们的测试方式,是向提示词里注入 UUID 或 nonce,然后要求模型对语义相同的问题给出相似答案。
  • 如果被证明有价值,他会做确定性模型——“我们活着就是为了取悦用户”——但“那只会让你获得更低的单位美元智能”,而且他怀疑未来很长时间里都会受 GPU 约束。swyx 提醒说,用户仍然会要求确定性。
  • 关于 Pareto 前沿,他透露了一个很能说明问题的细节:“为了站在单位美元智能的 Pareto 曲线上,我们做了绝对恶心的事情。”团队还告诉他,不要把结果称为“模型的弗兰肯斯坦怪物”。

11. 版本承诺:绝不静默替换模型,但也不承诺长期支持

  • 针对 swyx 对量化的担忧,Diogo 做出了绝对承诺:“我们部署模型后不会再改它们。这太疯狂了。我们在乎开发者。”第一方产品可以改变行为,API 不行。
  • 但“我们不承诺长期支持这些模型”,而且会比用户预期更快推出新模型。他举了一个可能的例子:暂时将 Jev 1.13.0 设为 LTS,因为开发者讨厌依赖被破坏;另一种选择是把整个模型集群割裂开来,那会是糟糕结果。
  • 他们正在研究更友好于开发者的 LTS 方案,但他没有承诺会无限期维护某个确切模型版本。模型版本应该越来越聪明;当系统从崎岖、局部能力走向广泛能力时,差异会最大。
  • 对于是否把 LTS 模型移植到 Cerebras 或 Etched 等其他芯片上,他回答:“无可奉告。”每秒智能是“另一种指标”;100毫秒到1毫秒之间的实时预算可能有价值,但“我不认为那会是 Jev 的专长”。

12. 基础类型:choice、score 和 null(源自 Bernoulli)

  • “Null”源自“Bernoulli”,是一种连续的、类似 bool 的概率。被否决的名字包括 PBool 和 Pool——“我们本来想叫它 pool party,但没人允许。”这3种基础类型都是有意创造的新概念:“这些不是编程里原本就存在的类型……score 不是 int。”
  • 他认可的映射是:choice 对应 enum 上的 switch statement,null 对应 if statement,score 对应排序或设定阈值。“还会有更多类型,它们会映射到编程原语。”Choice 最接近函数调用,但“函数调用是一个极其恶心的东西。”
  • Jev 这个名字在内部遭到相当大的反对。除了 Diogo 的联合创始人之外,所有人都已经道过歉;那位联合创始人希望它叫 Meow。

13. 结构化状态输入,以及作为“恶心全局变量”的 system prompt

  • API 中最容易被低估的部分是:状态、指令和标准都可以使用结构化 JSON。“如果你在用模板,把它变成 system message 之类的东西,你是在用旧思路思考……在计算机内部,你应该传递四周都带有语义的嵌套结构。”
  • 他对现状的批评是:“System message 就是恶心的全局变量,你把所有东西都塞进去……然后希望每条指令都被准确执行,而不是把问题并行地问出来。”
  • 他们想要的设计目标是一种 flow state:人们可以写出类型安全的 System One 查询,得到准确的分支结果,而不必反复测试模型是否真的有效。“这就是梦想。而这会是一场漫长、漫长的苦战。”

14. 如何拆解问题:许多小问题,“没有 ML 的 ML”

  • 作为模型最重度的用户,他给出的技巧是:把问题拆成“最小的语义单元”,做到“非常结构化、非常明确”——他喜欢使用反引号——并清楚说明每个引用指的是什么,因为模型应该按字面理解。
  • 对拒答问题,不要问“这里应该拒绝吗?”而要围绕具体拒绝条件提出许多独立问题,再设定阈值,并把遗漏的情况加入测试。“通过把那个问题加进去修掉 bug……现在它就永远解决了。”这种拆解让系统变得可测量:“这就像没有 ML 的 ML。”
  • swyx 汇报了自己的测试结果:与100次调用相比,一个大提示词更快、更便宜、效果更好。Diogo 的回应是,这种拆解确实不方便,但能生成值得信任、可在后台运行的软件。
  • 并行提问的成本很低:“给每条消息都加上 ID,然后针对每个 ID 提一个问题……状态只付费一次。”
  • 他主动提出一个保留意见:用这些模型做自动化交易让他“有点害怕”。这是模型目前可能还不够好的高阶任务;置信度估计和升级给人的阈值,可以帮助判断什么时候不该部署。

15. 微调:可能会做,但会很谨慎;模型规模、级联,以及消灭正则表达式

  • 对于模型在本地场景中校准错误,他坦率承认:“需要明确的是,它会把很多事情做错。”团队希望每个模型版本都明显更好。微调“可能会进入选项”,但把通用模型收窄,可能改善某个任务的边缘案例,同时损害通用性。
  • swyx 说 OpenAI 和 Claude,以及可能还有 Gemini,都曾推出后又撤回微调功能。Diogo 认同自己了解的那些版本确实很差,撤掉它们可能是更好的选择。
  • 他正在构想一种科幻式方案——明确强调“不是承诺,只是愿望”:校准加上不同模型规模的级联;有把握的回答提前结束,不确定的回答则升级到更大模型,未来甚至可能在 Pareto 前沿上自动微调。“有没有一种可能,人们以后不再写正则表达式,因为单位美元的智能比正则表达式的复杂度更便宜?”
  • Diogo 对不同模型规模持开放态度,因为他无法知道每个用户需要多少智能,但这仍是考虑中的方向,不是确定的发布路线图。
  • 他还说,自己喜欢“文化就是一家公司在市场不奖励它时仍然会做什么”这个观点,同时承认自己可能记错了原话。

16. System One 与 System Two 是经验边界,而不是口号

  • 当被要求定义边界、因为“人们只是在试图把一切都 Jev 化”时,他拒绝给出绝对理论:“事实是,这是一个经验问题,就像 scaling laws 一样。”他的判断是,预训练形成的智能浓缩物,本质上是 System One 思考者。
  • RLVR “为 System Two 做了不可思议的事情”——“我对此肃然起敬”——但由此产生的行为既脆弱又崎岖。ChatGPT 时代的模型被描述为通用;RLVR 模型则被描述为狭窄而脆弱,而“数学不只是尖峰,它是分形的”。
  • swyx 分享了上线首日的实测:单跳任务“达到了 SOTA”,但随着跳数增加,多跳任务开始崩塌。Diogo 说,工作重点是挖掘、平滑、雕刻并组合尽可能多的能力。System One 只是对这一范式中当前有效部分的描述。
  • Diogo 没有承诺永远不使用基于字符串的推理或其他推理形式。他说,速度更慢、效率更低、更加脆弱的推理形式仍然可以存在;他的坚定承诺是,以机器原生 ROI 作为 North Star。
  • 关于视觉能力,在 Doom demo 之后最直观的要求是:“所有方向都在考虑之中。”更难的问题是,用户以为自己想要什么,和他们真正需要什么,可能并不相同。Diogo 带着保留地说,据他所知,Jev 在避免长上下文退化方面遥遥领先,而其他供应商只是把用户要求的长上下文交给了他们。
  • 如果产品哲学过度偏向满足用户明确说出的需求,可能会走向“Anthropic 式保姆国家思维”。如何在信任、发布速度和把用户当作成年人之间取得平衡,将是他近期最大的争论之一。

17. 上线前的市场反馈很差:对正统产品市场匹配理论的挑战

  • 真实历史是:“反馈相当糟糕……超过一半实际试用的人完全没看懂”;非技术团队成员担心他们“卖的是维生素,而不是止痛药”,上线前收入“几乎为零”。那些真正理解产品的人问的则是如何通过采购流程。
  • 然后发布发生了:“它爆了,所有人都在说,我们需要尽可能多的速率限制。能不能真的给你们 GPU?”他的结论是:“我确实想质疑一下产品市场匹配这个概念。”推动增长的不只是营销,而是“灵魂基本以同一频率共振的热情开发者”。
  • 他的忠诚回应,是探索推出“对开发者比对企业更友好”的产品。他染了头发,用垃圾袋做 Town Hall,因为“在公司最重要的时刻,如果不继续和他们交流,我会觉得很脏”。他要求社区监督自己,如果改变了这点,就拿出干草叉来。

18. 使用场景地图:暗数据、实时应用、验证一切、智能软件,以及意外出现的 computer use

  • 他们在发布前从第一性原理出发梳理出的场景包括:“暗数据”——企业囤积了大量数据,却因为成本过高而一直不敢用 LLM 分析——以及作为主要收入来源的 coding agents;实时和助手类应用;“验证一切”,即以类似 observability 的方式检查 LLM 调用;还有天然可组合的“智能软件”,包括一个 programming-language-as-Jev 项目。
  • Computer use 是“从左侧突然飞出来”的场景。swyx 展示了一个由语音驱动的 demo,涉及 Notes、Arc、x.com 和 Photo Booth,并用 Jev 作为决策模型。Diogo 的态度既兴奋又谨慎:“正如我反对为基准刷分,我也反对 demo 驱动。我想确保它能可靠工作。”但他仍称其“酷得他妈的离谱”,并希望它最终支持免手操作电脑。
  • 社区用户做出的东西“有点比我们的更酷……如果那是我们的 demo,天哪”。他们的 cookbook“不是 AI 生成的垃圾”,而是受到真实客户问题启发,包含可实际使用的技术。

19. Coding agents:单模型 incumbent 的困境,以及摆脱 KV cache

  • Diogo 认为讨论中的 incumbent agents——Claude Code 和 Codex——很可能排名第一和第二,但明确表示自己并不完全确定。他说,这些产品建立在单模型世界之上,而开放式 coding agents 正在试验多模型设计。
  • 由于开放式 agent 大致已经达到同等水平——“while loop 能做的事情没那么多”——第一个杀手级多模型模式可能会在它们之间迅速传播。他不确定单模型 incumbent 会如何应对。
  • 他的研究议程来自文章《KV Cache Rules Everything Around Me》:cache 会把 agent 锁定在单一模型上,并鼓励不断追加内容,这与状态管理、抽象和拆解相冲突。它有助于解释为什么路由困难、为什么 sub-agent 经常失败,以及为什么压缩很难。
  • 摆脱这一约束后,可以采用带标签的子任务层级,以搜索相关上下文;让并行 sub-agent 读取彼此的状态,使用智能锁而不是“基础得要命的”锁;并以低成本查询历史上下文。“每次都从头开始,还要解决一个叫持续学习的问题,这不是有点奇怪吗?其实那是一个内存管理问题。”
  • swyx 提到了 Prime Agent 和 recursive-language-model 研究,认为它们属于相邻方向。

20. 宏观判断:3% TFP 增长、当下零自动化,以及逆 SaaSpocalypse

  • swyx 指出宣言中的一句话——“5年内 TFP 增长率:3%”——在各家实验室中很不寻常。Diogo 说,这正是经济革命的含义,并把它与 OpenAI 宪章曾经代表的方向联系起来。
  • 他的评分是:“现在所有模型大致都并列为零”,也就是在具有经济价值的工作中的自动化占比约为0%,不过这一过程可能已经开始。一旦真正的自动化发生,“它会出现在经济统计数据里”。他认为这不会导致大规模失业。
  • 软件停滞的谜题是:“AI 明明这么他妈的强,为什么软件基本上和2019年完全一样,除了有时候旁边多了一个聊天框?”这些系统还不能被信任去执行企业需要承担后果的决策。
  • 因此会出现“逆 SaaSpocalypse”:SaaS 将被全面增强,因为 incumbent software 公司知道哪些工作值得自动化。
  • 他更喜欢 AI 融入背景:“我真的厌倦了 AI 总是充当前景角色……世界应该只是变得更令人愉悦,而 AI 帮忙实现这一点。”他希望整个软件世界都能做到“理解我的意思”。

21. “跟上前沿”是建立在 RLVR 单一文化上的偷换概念

  • 他反驳前沿实验室的 pacing 文件,称其默认所有人都需要在宽泛行动空间里继续做更多 RLVR。他认为沙盒问题本可以被解决,但实验室选择了更强的模型能力,而不是优先解决这些约束。既然做出了这些选择,接下来当然会得出“是的,各位,我们正在走向危险世界”的结论,但这个前提并非没有替代方案。
  • “我显然不认为我们需要在自己的模型上做更多 RLVR。我认为,对我们的形态而言,最优的量就是零。”
  • 谁该负责?“唯一应该负责的是研究人员。”他说,公众合理地以为 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 已经在尽最大努力,却看不到还有其他可选方向。
  • 当 swyx 说 pacing 主要是政治定位,包括围绕2028年大选的定位时,Diogo 受到很大冲击:“我真希望自己没听到这句话……这让我对人类有点失去信心。”他用 COVID 作类比:过度自信地诉诸权威,导致了次优回应和糟糕的后续影响。“即便是为了更大的善而误导人,我也不喜欢。”

22. 起源故事:从 InstructGPT 和文案垃圾,到“算了,兄弟,我们干就完了”

  • 他曾努力推动 InstructGPT 上线。早期版本采用了他编写的一种尚未发表的算法,因为清洗 PPO 数据太慢;它“基本上立刻拿下了当时 LLM 市场50%的份额”。
  • 随后却令人失望:它主要被用于文案写作——Jasper AI、Copy.ai,以及如今所谓的 slop——“我们担心自己让互联网变得更糟”。他认为,每个人都应该能够解释,为什么超越人类的指令遵循能力还不是 AGI。
  • 这最终转化为 TypeSafe 的起点:从 AI 经济革命倒推——“如果 AI 是一个 API,我们会把这个 AI 称作什么?人类还是代码?我觉得会有很多个9属于代码。但所有优化都在服务人类这一边。”Sam 看完他的文档后说:“这太他妈好了。你应该去做这个。”
  • 他原以为 Anthropic 一定已经在做同样的方向;随后他把 ChatGPT 描述为一个没有发布的内部 Claude 产品的复制品。swyx 补充说,推理能力可能是“较早出现的”,Diogo 则回应称,产品问题仍有争议,但研究质量毋庸置疑。
  • 创业冲刺从他先给 Eric 打电话开始;当时甚至没有在招 Sasha,她却说“我加入”,并把自己的创业公司并入其中。“2周之内,我们拿到了资金,大家搬进我的公寓——这糟透了,因为我是洁癖。”
  • swyx 把 OpenAI 感恩节期间的 GPU 运行与那段政变时期联系起来;Diogo 起初说不确定,随后想起那场政变很烦人,并答应之后再谈。他对自己的评价是:“我把自己描述成0%创业者……我无法想象有人会把这件事做两次。老实说,做一次都已经够糟了。”

23. 给受挫实验室研究者的建议、招聘,以及智能领域的 AWS

  • 别人是否应该效仿他?“大多数 neo-lab 都很烂……他们往往只是想要钱来摆弄自己的实验。”他更深层的异端观点是:他并不看重研究履历本身;他看重的是能找到正确 North Star 任务并追到底的人。他仍然认为研究人员不可或缺。
  • 如果有人真正找到了 North Star 任务:“绝对应该,拜托了。请打破这个蜂巢思维。”如果一个人主要只是想玩研究,他认为成熟实验室可能更适合。关于资本配置,他仍坚持:“如果给我10亿美元,我不会预训练……Frankensteining 不是最优雅、最漂亮的东西,但它能解决问题,宝贝。”
  • 他抛给其他人的任务包括智能游戏——例如在类似 Stardew Valley 的游戏中,为 NPC 构建简单状态机——以及摆脱 KV cache 的 coding agents。他还说,不会把 Jev 的身份写进模型:“我不会把‘你是 TypeSafe 的 Jev’写进模型。那会割裂它……去代表互联网认为的东西。要正确。”
  • 招聘重点包括“无限”数据人才,并把他们重新命名为模型能力人才,以获得更高地位;平台工程师;一名创始营销人员;以及能够推出决策之外的新型机器原生智能形态的人。
  • 他说光速是一个瓶颈,并对欧洲用户目前只快了3倍、而不是100倍感到不满,因为那里还没有服务器。
  • 他想要的终局是“智能领域的 AWS”。他说,声称这一定会由 TypeSafe 实现会很傲慢,但自己会尽一切所能推动它发生。System One 是“其中的 TCP”,而他喜欢 swyx 早先说过的一句话:“在上帝之上构建产品。”还有更多层次和模型形态等待探索。
完整逐字稿
swyx

Okay, we're in the studio. Special occasion because this week, Diogo, my good buddy, launched Jev, and it's been taking over the complete timeline. How do you feel? What's it like to be you right now?

Diogo Almeida

Emotionally?

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Never been worse. I'm a ragged corpse of a person right now because there's so much going on, and I'm a technical CEO, so I have a lot of fires to fight.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Mentally, I feel like the entire AI field is one of those carnival houses of mirrors, and everyone is just insane and saying the weirdest stuff that doesn't make sense. For just this week, I feel like I'm in better sync with reality, and people see it now. AI can be so much more than what was once thought.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, an AI-based economic revolution is back on the table, and this is fucking awesome. This is fucking awesome. I'm so jazzed that the developers get it. I want to show my internal gratitude to the developers, and I'm so jazzed about the community and everything. It's so great.

swyx

Yeah, you were saying yesterday that you decided to prioritize the Discord town hall and not a bunch of VIP investor-type people because you wanted to make sure that they were the people who got the most attention, right? The engineers, the developers.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, it felt a little like, “Oh, man, I'm talking to really important people right now.” I probably shouldn't reveal who.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But it feels a little dirty for me. I'm perhaps overly genuine about things. It feels dirty if, in my gigantic calendar of people to talk to, the community isn't one of those.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

In my ideal world, it would be community all the time. I was thinking, “Should I host a town hall while walking to your studio?” And I'm like, “No, that's too crazy.”

swyx

Sure.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

You guys have been hosting town halls on Discord. Discord is now 100,000 people. Your Twitter has blown up.

Diogo Almeida

I don't follow these stats.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Holy shit.

swyx

Your Twitter has blown up. It was really funny because at AIE you were like, “Follow me, please,” and then you didn't even provide your handle.

Diogo Almeida

I'm a noob. I'm a noob.

swyx

You're such a noob.

Diogo Almeida

I'm a noob.

swyx

But that's positive aura—that you don't know how to promote yourself.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Someone called me out when I posted, “Holy shit, we're all 3 trending topics.” Then they're like, “That's a personal feed.”

swyx

That's a personal—

Diogo Almeida

And I'm like, “Oh, no—cringe.”

swyx

Of course it trends to you.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

swyx

Okay, congrats on everything.

Diogo Almeida

Thank you.

swyx

We'll talk about more details as you have them, but for people who are living under a rock or just want the definitive thing, what is Jev?

Diogo Almeida

Let me think about that. That's a hard one.

swyx

I'm happy to re-ask if you want to break it down.

Diogo Almeida

No, no, no. I'm happy to just jam on it.

swyx

Yeah.

1. What Jev Actually Is

Diogo Almeida

The first thing that I'm relieved about with this question is that I don't have to answer it to my parents anymore, because ChatGPT can just explain it.

swyx

Nice.

Diogo Almeida

The way I see it is, we need a new class of models. We're not attached to naming that class of models. The most accurate name we've come up with is System One models.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

There will be reasons for that, but there's a reason why we don't call them decision models. System One is beyond that. That's all I can say. We didn't expect this to be our big launch, so we have stuff in the tank.

swyx

You should have said “low-key research preview.”

Diogo Almeida

It kind of was, right? It kind of was. We have a class of models that we describe as machine-native, System One, and large programmable.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

I think this is the class of models where the goal is for code to be the consumer. As opposed to pre-trained large language models, which are meant for autocomplete of the internet, or RLHF models—chatbot instruction-following models—which are meant to reply to text, or RLVR, which is in a weird gray area with RLHF, these are meant to be directly consumed by code, hence the name type-safe.

The thing we really, really, really want is for AI to be as powerful as possible, and we think the way to do that is to integrate it with software. We are designing everything—from the outside to the deep internals of the model—to be optimized for software.

Number 1, Jev is our first large programmable model, or System One model, whatever you want to call it. Jev is meant to be optimized for intelligence per dollar, hence the name Jev.

swyx

Jevons paradox.

Diogo Almeida

Jevons, Jevons paradox, yeah. It's optimized for intelligence per dollar. I love this debate with people about what is most important between reliability, cost, calibration, and speed. Jev is meant to be—Jev will be the name of models that are on the frontier of intelligence per dollar. There are other ways to optimize it. In ML, or at least if you're good at ML, it's all about trade-offs, and we're just going all out on that.

swyx

Yeah. To me, calibration is one of the new things that people weren't talking about as much. We've done an episode in the past with Clementine Foreal of Hugging Face, where they were like, “Yeah, actually, they're just collapsing toward what you want to hear the most,” or what is most likely, instead of their own internal confidence about a thing.

Diogo Almeida

Can I soapbox on that for a second?

swyx

Go ahead.

2. The Mode Collapse Problem

Diogo Almeida

I've heard that your audience is the most technical, so I actually want to get into that.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I went to extreme lengths to make sure everything in our launch video was accurate and real. Apparently, that's very unusual. One of the things that no one paid attention to was the downsides of RLHF, in particular, mode dropping.

swyx

Mode dropping or mode collapse?

Diogo Almeida

It's the same thing.

swyx

Is that what you—

Diogo Almeida

It's the same thing.

swyx

All right.

Diogo Almeida

I want to have a blog on this eventually, but I want to tell as many people this as possible because I think it's a very interesting thing. The spicy take is that I believe in Jan LeCun a lot. I think Jan LeCun's takes are actually among the closest to—

swyx

What about this?

Diogo Almeida

Do you want to address this now, or should I let you go on mode collapse?

swyx

No, no, no, later.

Diogo Almeida

Okay. Okay.

swyx

Go more on mode collapse. I want to—

Diogo Almeida

I actually think that, among takes, Yann LeCun's is among the most accurate. But he has this very famous, infamous slide about—

swyx

The kick.

Diogo Almeida

The LLMs are doomed.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

You know, the one where he has a pie chart with a tiny little part—

swyx

Hold up.

Diogo Almeida

—and says that as you increase sequence length, the probability of it making an error goes to...

swyx

What's the disconnect?

Diogo Almeida

Exactly. May I, or do you want to tell me—

swyx

About mode collapse?

Diogo Almeida

Oh, no, no. Mode collapse is related to this.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

The disconnect happens because if you are in a mode-covering or calibrated distribution, you're not overly punished for having outliers. You'd expect that some amount of the time you'd be out of distribution and some amount of the time you'd be in distribution. That's what happens when you cover the distribution. These were models before GANs. They made blurry images, right?

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

Instead, GANs mode-drop. They drop the minority class and just do the really common ones, and this is why this effect doesn't happen. In order to generate really long strings without making errors, they need to be extremely conservative because it's really easy to see when an error happens.

It's very hard to see when a subtle thing that looks correct happens, and that calibration is total poison into the probability distributions of strings.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And it's a nuanced take, and I think that this is why this doesn't happen, and this is why strings are so bad at decision-making, or overloading the string models for decision-making is a bad time.

swyx

And while we're on the topic of Jan, do you agree that his fix—which is a world model, like a JEPA-type embedding thing—is the right solve? So basically, one of the reasons that it could fail is because you're trying to reason over token outputs and then just looping back again, continuing until you reach an end of sentence. Is that... And his solve is JEPA, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yes.

swyx

Which is joint embedding prediction.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

So is that the solve, or do you have a take on that?

Diogo Almeida

Oh, man, I probably shouldn't talk too much about the insides of ML, but I will say that my brand, other than unhinged, is practical.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

You know, even my take here is practical. Am I a scaling law fan? Depends. Scaling laws tell you how much better you get at a thing for the amount in.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

A scaling law does mean exponentially more resources for normally sublinear gains, which looks to be a bad investment unless those linear gains are really, really valuable. But to me, it's all about what we can do with what we have to make the biggest possible fucking difference. I can curse.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

We're a pod for adults.

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah.

swyx

And also, we have a scaling law thing if you want to go into that later.

Diogo Almeida

That part is not super relevant right now.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Actually, if you want to go into my Bitter Lesson, I think that's more relevant.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

But to me, I'm all about pragmatics, and I think that the JEPA stuff is really cool early research. I really love awesome research. Is it practical yet? Probably shouldn't say.

I just think there are so many diamonds in the rough littered all over the research world right now that haven't been polished because people don't know how to do the right task. And I think that what our launch did—does it kickstart us as a company? Like, yes. Will it be great for us as a company? Yes.

I think it's going to be even greater for this direction of programmatic AI. You know, there was going to be a gold rush on top of us because software is super fucking charged, but I think there's going to be a gold rush parallel to us as well, on all the different ways we can expose things to make software more powerful, so people can make even cooler stuff. And then we are back to early internet energy, you know?

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And I think that's why, you know, Twitter is just like, "Jev, Jev, Jev," you know? It's like—

swyx

It's inspiring—

Diogo Almeida

It is like a party.

swyx

Because it's so different from what we're used to, which is, "I'm sorry you can't do this, but we do scaling laws, and only the big labs can do it," right?

Diogo Almeida

Actually, I'll make a tangent if that's okay.

swyx

Yeah, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I think you might enjoy this.

swyx

Really?

Diogo Almeida

Might—

swyx

Five tangents in. No, this is good. This is fine. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, yeah, I get lost in all my tangents.

swyx

This is going to be horrible for the listeners to figure out, but they're going to figure it out. It's fine.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, we could edit it in post.

swyx

This morning, I...

3. The Case Against Refusal

Diogo Almeida

A popular thing on Discord that people keep asking me, and I haven't had the time to explain it yet, is why am I opposed to safety alignment and why do we not refuse?

I'm not opposed to safety as a principle, but I think that safety alignment is generally misaligned with users. And refusal is just obviously a type error. If you're a human being and you're chatting with a bot or whatever, you're Claude coding, and a refusal happens like, "I'm sorry, I can't read DNA.py"—that's an annoying time. It's annoying, right?

But you can work with it, right? And you're forced to work with it because of Stockholm syndrome. I have stories about that too. I need another tangent deep in here.

But if you ever want this in a dependency running in the background, what happens if that refuses? What if someone else is using that dependency? They don't know what that system is. Do you want the software to just stochastically break because a user sent a weird message in there?

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

That is straight-up insanity. It's coming from a place of people who do not understand software, do not understand programming—

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

—and they are obsessed with this horseless carriage of an AI coworker, I believe, instead of unearthing the full power of AI.

swyx

Fair enough.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

You want something that is the core kernel that is usable everywhere.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, exactly. The cognitive core, right?

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And you need this thing to be so general, so optimized for its use cases. You want it to work on all the future use cases, all the weird shit that people are doing.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

You know, we obviously didn't train on any of that stuff. Is it surprising that it works? No, because we trained on weirder stuff, my friend. So, one tangent up about safety alignment.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

Safety alignment makes sense for a product, in my opinion, for ChatGPT and Claude. What makes safety and capability alignment different is that capability alignment is about doing what the user wants. That is sick for software engineers. They want their thing to do the thing, and the more predictable it is, the less they have to test it and play around with it.

Jev is not anywhere close to that yet. It could be, but there are so many more nines of reliability that we want in order to make it so good, like a database query, that you don't even have to think about it. It is just there when you need intelligence.

But safety alignment is the opposite of instruction following. It's when you want to follow someone else's instructions, like OpenAI and Anthropic's—

swyx

The lab's value—

Diogo Almeida

Exactly.

swyx

Stack. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly. And this makes a lot of sense for our product. Again, if they don't want to do some not-safe-for-work role-play with ChatGPT, that's on them because maybe that's what their users who have parents and kids want. That's fine.

But in an API, that's nuts, right? That's completely unacceptable because people need to program around this, and that is so anti-user that it's... I'm—

swyx

I—

Diogo Almeida

—I can be an angry person, so I should try to calm down.

swyx

People get your passion, and I think it's really good. The one pushback I'll give you is: what if we use it to kill people, right? That is the actual... The not-safe-for-work thing is private, personal, whatever. But, yes, we will use it in war, and that is something that companies can reasonably prefer their APIs not be used for.

Diogo Almeida

I get that. I think there are pragmatic places where that opinion can be held. I don't think the foundation of a general-purpose technology is that place, personally.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Would I prefer that our stuff is not used to kill people? Obviously. Would I prefer it's used for all sorts of great stuff in the world? Obviously. Will I put my thumb on the scale for that? Yes. Will I do it at the technological layer? Absolutely not, because that will fracture the intelligence.

Every single time you mean it to overfit to some weird stuff, you're fracturing its intelligence more and more, and these things are fractured to the... They're so darn fractured right now.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

So, furthermore, to me, I think intelligence will be more like a database than a coworker. I don't think it's up to databases to add checks on whether or not they're used for, like, what's something that's not great? You know, the CIA... Actually, I don't know what the CIA does really. You can imagine—killing people who are not even bad or whatever.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

And I don't think it's the database's responsibility for that. And furthermore, a thing that has been weird to me is when people sign up for our thing on Slack, and they're like, "Hey, we're gonna deploy this.

Can we deploy this thing? I am just like, “My brother, we are an API. You are a developer. It’s none of my business.” Right? You shouldn’t know what the whole task even is—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Because it should be decomposed into small things. We shouldn’t be able to know what the downstream users are doing, and that is a good boundary to give software engineers maximum power. Ideally, they use it for the good stuff, and ideally, we can help them. We’ve talked about doing open source and charity and all of that. We have absolutely no time for anything else right now, but they will get any of that bias out of the technological layer as long as I’m in charge.

swyx

Yeah. That’s great. While we’re on the topic, let’s also briefly talk about your privacy stuff, terms of service, which got a little bit of a misunderstanding. I just want to clarify that upfront.

Diogo Almeida

Ooh.

swyx

I think it probably takes 2 sentences from you about how you’re not being that restrictive about your API. Like, clearly—

Diogo Almeida

Oh, yeah. Obviously, yeah.

swyx

Ideologically, you would take your role as a platform very seriously.

Diogo Almeida

Yes. I don’t know what you’re referring to, but I’ve seen a couple of things about benchmarking.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

Obviously, we’re not stopping people from doing that type of thing. Oh, man, I should be careful about what I say. I’m realizing—

swyx

No, you said it—you said it publicly that—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

That was in the preview period. You didn’t take it out for the launch—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Okay.

swyx

And now you’re going to take it out.

Diogo Almeida

So the team is doing stuff that—

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

I’m not even aware of. So it’s great to know the team communicated that.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

I asked them to check in with the lawyers about that.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We are obviously not stopping people from doing that type of thing. I am extremely in favor—so I’m extremely anti-public benchmarks. I’m medium about private benchmarks that are proxies.

swyx

So are you worried about saturation or training on public benchmarks, so it’s easy to cheat?

Diogo Almeida

Not only is it easy to cheat, there’s a lot of incentive. I think that we are—or anyone who’s in competition with us, vaguely, there is—

swyx

There are, like, 50 Jev clones. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Well, sure, sure.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Let’s say that there is competition.

swyx

And we’ll talk about those. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Or let’s just say that there’s—let’s assume that there’s an industry 2 years from now of people who are doing similar things to us. The thing that we are selling is intelligence per something, per dollar or per second. People obsess about the cost and the speed. I believe that that’s cool, but the thing that matters is the intelligence.

The cost and the speed are bad things. You’re paying them for something, and you need the thing back, and the intelligence is what truly matters. The problem with intelligence is that there’s a je ne sais quoi to it, right? The good-model smell. The thing that happened after we launched, 2 hours later, that actually went way bigger than the video, was like, “Holy shit—”

swyx

This is actually usable.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, well—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

It’s beyond that.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

The launch was crazy, and people could really sense how hard we care about that. That’s truly what I think the long term of this is. I think public benchmarks are antithetical to this. They are a way to get people to trust intelligence because intelligence has a je ne sais quoi, but public benchmarks are extremely, extremely gameable. Even if they try not to, they still will.

Back in the old days, every lab had a team to collect data that looked like MMLU to make it look better, which is just benchmarking, benchmarking with extra steps.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

I believe that in the long run, it needs to be vibes and trust until you put it into a workflow, evaluate it for that workflow, measure it, and have your own sense of how it does on the exact workflow that matters. Our job is to keep moving the nines of reliability. This is an ever-present part of what we need to be doing as a company, and we need to do everything to have people know that this is something we care so much about.

If we wanted to, we could have released Jeff like a year and a half ago if we wanted it to be dumb.

swyx

Oh.

Diogo Almeida

The—my bitterest lesson, right? Architecture and—yeah.

swyx

I’ll bring it up, since you talked about it here.

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah.

swyx

Hell yeah.

4. The Data Lab Thesis

Diogo Almeida

Suchin says algorithms beats compute, very roughly. Data matters way more than compute, obviously. Doing the right task and having the North Star is the hardest, most important thing. This has happened in LLM land twice so far, maybe 2.2 times.

There’s RLHF, which shifted the task to instruction following. No one realized that was possible. RLVR did a tiny little edit to the direction. And now us: RLCD. We have a new task, and the goal is programs in the loop. Data matters so unbelievably much—

swyx

Right.

Diogo Almeida

I can't emphasize it less.

swyx

You consider yourself a data lab rather than a model lab. Is that something—the wording that you guys use?

Diogo Almeida

Absolutely.

swyx

Yeah?

Diogo Almeida

We will always care so much about data. To me, model capabilities means data. Data is so unbelievably complicated, and that is what gets nines. You have no idea how much data can shift everything. Data is so important.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Holy crap.

swyx

Um—

Diogo Almeida

So if people are looking for a job, we are hiring infinite data people. Actually, infinite.

swyx

What is a good data person? Clearly, somebody who cares about reading through the transcripts of whatever. You’ve said, for example, that all your data is synthetic.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

But that’s only scratching the surface, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Synthetic, so what? Synthetic, but we have people with a lot of taste and a lot of care looking at these, articulating what’s wrong, going back, regenerating. Is that what a good data person is these days?

Diogo Almeida

Let me try to figure out how to explain it. It’s super complicated, and I literally onboard the data people with a talk that I assume is longer than this podcast will end up being. I’ll try to say the high level of it.

Actually, number 0: data and synthetic data depend on your task. The shape of your data—the shape of your task—changes the data. RLVR’s data is kind of environments, right?

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

RLHF’s data is human feedback. Each task has its own unique kind of data, and we, of course, have our own unique kind of data.

Number 1, the reason why we don’t want to train on our users’ data, even if we could: we could probably ask for it in our terms right now, and it—I don’t know if it would make a difference. We truly don’t want that, because no matter what, real-world data has so much bias. There’s a power law of people asking the same things, where you’ll end up overfitting to it and fracturing to it and all of that.

Number 2, we are aiming for a complete sci-fi future years from now, where these models are going to be the general infrastructure, layers and layers and layers deep down the stack, for things people can’t even imagine. I like to think of our model kind of like UDP as LLMs and TCP as our models. All sorts of stuff can be built on top of that, and we need to be able to nail those futuristic use cases so that software developers can actually build that futuristic stuff.

The way to do that is—even if we had all of the data of the present—we would just overfit to the present, and then it wouldn’t work. What we need is—it almost feels like they’re artists. They study this cognitive core. Our cognitive core is way less jagged than anyone else’s, and then they find the jaggednesses and address them surgically in a way that—and you can never perfectly do this right—but they do it in such a way that it addresses them in every single possible dimension: past, present, and future.

swyx

The general case rather than the specific case.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly. And that requires a lot of intelligence every time.

swyx

Okay, so we mentioned a little bit—you sort of criticized my thinking as being very RLVR-influenced, which is very fair.

Let us actually mention RLCD.

Diogo Almeida

Ooh.

swyx

You obviously have some secret sauces. To my knowledge, you've never actually published a paper or anything like that on it, right?

Diogo Almeida

No, not yet.

swyx

What should people get from this? Can you give people some confidence that you're not just making up jargon for the sake of sounding cool? One thing for me is calibration. I do think that is well understood because we've covered it on the podcast.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

But I don't know what you mean when you say RLCD versus what people are familiar with.

Diogo Almeida

It's a great question.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

Actually, I will give a related question.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

What is RLHF?

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

Right? RLHF means multiple different things. There's the RLHF of the original work—I think it was Paul Christiano teaching a robot to backflip or something like that.

swyx

Was that it?

Diogo Almeida

That was the original RLHF.

swyx

I referenced the PPO paper, but I don't know.

Diogo Almeida

PPO was not necessarily from human feedback, if I recall. But I believe it was an OpenAI alignment work that could teach hard-to-specify outputs, like a backflip. I'm not 100% sure. Then there was the learning to summarize work by a bunch of the team that helped with and co-authored the instruction-following paper, which was teaching doing PPO on language models to do something somewhat ill-specified.

swyx

This is from 2017. I'm trying to manipulate this thing.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

All right.

Diogo Almeida

I'm not 100% sure, but that looks quite right.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

If it has a robot doing backflips or something like that, that might be it.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

Okay, cool. I guess I got it right. Hell yeah.

swyx

There you go.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

That's the one.

Diogo Almeida

The idea was: can you do ill-specified things with it? That's version 1. Version 2 was the Learning to Summarize from Human Feedback work that OpenAI did, which is actually PPO on language models to do something somewhat ill-specified. This is another thing that people refer to as RLHF—

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

—which I did not co-author.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, Dario's there, cool. Hell yeah.

swyx

And Radford.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, shout-outs to Alec and Ryan. Love them.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But I'll get into what I refer to as RLHF.

swyx

You have comments on that, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I have comments on that paper, but we're so many tangents deep.

swyx

Yeah.

5. RLCD Changes The North Star

Diogo Almeida

The thing that really got to me is that what I'm calling RLHF is the task of instruction following. It's not about the PPO. That part doesn't matter. It's about setting a North Star: this is a valuable direction. It's kind of like “The Bitter Lesson” as a North Star.

swyx

Ah.

Diogo Almeida

For us, RLCD is this new task. I don't see it as jargon. I try to communicate with precision. It's just that here's another North Star. Just like DPO and all of its descendants also do RLHF despite not using the algorithm in that paper.

swyx

Mm-hmm. Clearly, stating the North Star is programmable AI: removing the human from the loop—

Diogo Almeida

Yes, yes, yes.

swyx

—because RLHF is tuning for this so that you can automate everything.

Diogo Almeida

Yes. Everything that we can.

swyx

Did I miss anything else in the thesis of what the North Star is?

Diogo Almeida

There is—That is right. I'm overly nuanced in my communication. The one nuance is that we need to be practical. We need to be aware of what language models can do really well, what AI can do.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

There could be programmatic types that are sick AF. But if the technology isn't ready for them, it's not a tragedy if they're not out in the world.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But to me, the pre-Jev world was a tragedy because—it sounds arrogant. Hear me out.

swyx

No, no, no. I strongly believe you.

Diogo Almeida

Cool. It sounds arrogant, but I've felt this way since long before I even had a company.

swyx

Yeah. I can vouch that—

Diogo Almeida

I've been talking about this for so long.

swyx

—you've said this around here for about 3 years.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, I've been talking about this for so long. I've been saying it because I thought it would have been easier. They say you don't do things because they're easy.

swyx

It is.

Diogo Almeida

Something like that.

swyx

Yeah, exactly, exactly, exactly, exactly.

Diogo Almeida

I thought this whole project would take a week.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I was unbelievably wrong, so I am so sorry to everyone at OpenAI that I thought, “Man, I'm solving this right now.” But I think the tragic thing is when—Well, I think overpromise and underdeliver is tragic too, and AI is extremely extreme on that axis. RLVR and RLHF are both extreme perpetrators of this.

But to me, there is just so much potential there. AI is clearly so smart. I love this in my talks: I ask people, “How can AI be so unbelievably smart? How can we solve Millennium Prize problems in math, but still not automate even the most basic rote work?” Really basic rote stuff doesn't take extremely smart people to do. It's not a satisfying job. There are other things these people could be doing, but we need them to do this super-basic, unsatisfying stuff because we can't automate it yet.

We have this supercharged engine of automation that just doesn't have the right plugs to connect to all of this economically valuable work. If the whole company of Tessl disappears, maybe it'll take a year or 2 for people to truly catch up. I actually don't know how long it'll take. If model quality matters, then we are going to be in a very good position for a long time.

But it's done, right? This has changed the path of technological history.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We will be exploring that space as a field.

swyx

Yeah. I definitely agree with that. You've created possibilities. If I can paraphrase so that people can also understand, you should not take the success of TypeSafe and Jeff as, “Well, that's a new model type. Now we're done. We go back to business.”

No. There are 5 other model types that you should be exploring. Let 1,000 flowers bloom.

Diogo Almeida

Absolutely.

swyx

Right?

Diogo Almeida

Like early-internet energy.

swyx

And some of that you will probably also do.

Diogo Almeida

Of course, yes.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

I think it's back to tech utopia. It's no longer, “Sometimes my coding agents work, but all of the best ones are hoarded internally.”

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Creation is back on the menu. It's going to be a wild-ass world, so buckle up. I'm so jazzed about that.

swyx

Yeah, yeah. I mean, now you have the funding and the momentum to do whatever you envision there, which I think is very gratifying to see you have after you've been saying these things for so long and then actually showing the world.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah. I know. It's such an interesting thing to be a tease the whole time. My talk felt like it was a cliffhanger because I didn't say how the automation would occur.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Sean reviewed our manifesto, and he's like, “It's a little bit vague in these parts. What's step 1? What is the intelligence without?”

swyx

Well, I asked you for a model, and you were like, “Yeah, model coming.”

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

swyx

I mainly objected to the word “composable.”

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

But “Build product on God” is fantastic.

Diogo Almeida

Thank you.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

We've really rallied around that. I'd like to think we're not entirely a cult like some companies are, but we are jazzed about what we're doing. My brand is being practical, and we are all super-duper practical.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

It's really great.

swyx

Yeah. So here is the secret master plan, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

The shape of machine-native composable AI.

Diogo Almeida

It was your idea to make—

swyx

I suppose.

Diogo Almeida

—a secret master plan, so.

swyx

It’s an Elon thing. When he started—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Tesla, he was like, “Here’s what we’ll do.”

Diogo Almeida

But I’m giving official credit to you.

swyx

Oh, thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

You should have told me you were also going to do this model launch, because you told me half of the story, and then the other half, you didn’t have the Doom demo at the time.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

You didn’t have any numbers to give me.

Diogo Almeida

Yep, yep, yep.

swyx

I was like, “Oh, well—”

Diogo Almeida

Well, the problem is I don’t believe in benchmarking.

swyx

Exactly.

Diogo Almeida

Right?

swyx

Exactly.

Diogo Almeida

It is a thing that you need to feel, and I think that this is the way to build long-term trust, even though it hurt us a lot. Last year, when we did fundraise, no one believed us.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

They wanted just benchmarks and stuff, and we were like, “We’re not going to do that. We are principled. We’re going to stand by our guns. That rewards bad actors. I don’t give a shit what you want. This is who we are, and we are standing by that.”

swyx

No, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Well, in some ways, I think choosing the hard path—you end up making the company that you want to work in.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Right? Otherwise, if you sell out, then you’re just working in OpenAI but with my people, right? Which is like—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Yeah. I don’t have too many regrets about that, obviously.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

It worked out so unbelievably well. I was emotional last night when I was talking about the reasons I left OpenAI, because I actually had to change my wording after the launch.

My phrasing was, “If an AI winter did happen and I did not do every fucking possible thing I could to avert that, I would see myself as personally responsible both for the RLHF direction,” which I think really widened overpromise versus underdeliver, “and also not going all in on this because I think this is where value is going to just be printed.”

It was really cool because I feel like the AI winter I’m worrying about is averted. AI will be useful. It’ll be used for automation.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

It’s been less than a week, and the numbers are already undeniable that it’s being used for real work. It’s the Wild West.

swyx

Yeah. Can you share, just off the top of your head, what numbers you’re seeing? What are sign-ups—whatever you can share?

Diogo Almeida

I’m actually not super on top of everything. The team are the ones who are telling me all of these things.

swyx

Yeah, and I’m sure it’s changing every day, right?

Diogo Almeida

It’s kind of nuts.

swyx

But if there’s a milestone that you’re like, “Yep, that’s something we’re hoping for. We reached it,” what is it?

6. Jev Finds Real Work

Diogo Almeida

I will say a milestone that we’ve passed is tokens per day.

swyx

Nice.

Diogo Almeida

This is not fleeting tokens per day. Even at night, it’s constantly churning, so you know machines are calling it and not just people trying things out.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

That is so cool. 1 trillion tokens a day is a lot.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Surpassing that is awesome. Sign-ups to me don’t really matter, and actually, this was a bit of a mistake we made, if I’m totally honest. People on Twitter were calling us marketing geniuses and all of that, and that was just us. We don’t have a marketer—we’re also hiring. We were just being our genuine, goofy, irreverent selves, and we were just offboarding people from the waitlist so hard.

Our platform team is so unbelievably cracked. I think we have more nines of uptime than Anthropic while having the most unprecedented launch ever. That is kind of nuts.

swyx

Yeah, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Props to them.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

The thing we didn’t realize was this. Number 1: waitlists. Waitlist sign-ups don’t matter for a developer platform, in my opinion. I would guess that a large number of them aren’t even developers. They go in, they try some queries, and a lot of people don’t get it because they aren’t programming, right? They’re just like, “What? This is not a chatbot. Where’s my ChatGPT 2?”

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

If every single human being in the world just wrote a couple of queries, that would be a rounding error compared to 1 power user’s for loop that is just creating value.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

The thing we didn’t realize with the waitlist is that we can just offboard anyone from it. It doesn’t matter. The scary part is rate limits. Once people start getting value from that, they just want tons and tons of rate limits, because this is what software is, right? You spend effort upfront to specify your rote task, and then this rote task creates more value than it takes to put in. Now that you have that—

swyx

Set and forget, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly, yeah. You run it in the background. You make it a dependency to other things. You can make higher-level stuff, and you just create so much value in the world.

Early internet people probably did not imagine the wonder of the early-2000s internet, which is still not the early internet. But it’s through—no offense—composability—

swyx

No, no.

Diogo Almeida

—all of the crazy stuff happens, and I just really wanted to emphasize that in our manifesto. We are going for emergence. We are going for being the catalyst. We want to empower people, and we are going to do whatever we can for that, be it Discords, our town hall with me wearing a garbage bag, or not.

swyx

And podcasts, and, you know—

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah.

swyx

—getting those out.

Diogo Almeida

Absolutely.

swyx

I want the long form, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

It is like, yes, we’ll get past some of the superficial things, and then we’ll go deep. People will really trust and understand your mission, and the people who resonate will end up joining you or buying you—or, sorry, as a customer.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, as a customer.

swyx

As a customer. As a customer.

Diogo Almeida

Okay, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

swyx

Sorry.

Diogo Almeida

That was funny. I’m sorry.

swyx

Sorry, I didn’t mean to say that. But no, 1 very flattering version of this: 36 million views of your launch video.

Diogo Almeida

Cool.

swyx

Diogo Almeida

Up to 38 now.

swyx

Yeah, yeah, rounding error.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Navio still has 74. Fable 5 got 57. I didn’t do the stats for the original ChatGPT, for which there was no video.

Diogo Almeida

Yep, yep, yep.

swyx

So, like, up there, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

As far as launching a Neo Lab in 2026, I think you’re number 1 right now, which is pretty crazy.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Well, I actually would rather—I do have the shirt: “Your favorite AI lab’s favorite AI lab.”

swyx

Uh-huh.

Diogo Almeida

I don’t give a shit about being a Neo Lab. I think being a Neo Lab—we have a lot of swag that is a parody of a Neo Lab. One of them I have is “Neo Lab with product,” which actually is not an AI lab. I don’t care about that, really.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

What I care about is being a reliable dev platform.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

I appreciate the comparison, but hopefully we transcend them, and we go back into a revolutionary moment for developers, and this stable thing that people can rely on and trust.

swyx

Yes. To that end, I think that’s one thing that really impressed me about you guys: you do talk about reliability. I thought it was mostly about calibration, which we talk about with RLCD. But actually, it’s also about uptime, scalability, and all those things, right? They’re all sort of a kind.

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

And nines.

Diogo Almeida

It’s, like—

swyx

Which, in my opinion, is uptime.

Diogo Almeida

But that’s part of it. There’s reliability in how intelligent the thing is. How consistently does it do the thing that you want? I think the big reasoning models are very smart.

In my opinion, they still lack reliability.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

I think there are many use cases where they look like they should be smart enough to automate their work. There is economic incentive to automate that work, yet they're still not reliable enough as an intern because they're optimized for different things. I think there's the reliability of being able to trust the outputs, and there are dimensions of reliability that we're not yet at that I'm so excited by.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I want to automate the easy work before the hard work. I think that's just a common-sense thing to do. But to me, we will be sufficient—I don't know if there's such a thing as sufficiently reliable—but I want to get so good that people don't even need to try the model to know that it'll work.

It's like what flow state is in programming, right? I'm just writing queries because I need intelligence in here, and when there's non-trivial branching, I can just write it in a type-safe system, one query, and get the results out, and it just branches accurately. That would be so, so good. That is the dream.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And that is going to be a long, long slog.

swyx

Yeah. We're going to go into your API design a little bit—

Diogo Almeida

Ooh.

swyx

—just to give people examples and maybe a path not taken, that kind of stuff.

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

One thing up front that I do wonder about in terms of reliability is that I notice there's no seed. And so, basically, with the same input, do I always get the same output?

Diogo Almeida

Hmm.

swyx

And if not, why not?

Diogo Almeida

Oh, great question. This is actually a common question we have between us. Reliability is actually a catch-all. Whenever AI can't automate something, it's due to some form of reliability. It could be type safety. It could be determinism. It could just be jagged, right?

Reliability is a catch-all. I just think that it's also a catch-all for what the North Star is. Determinism is the same inputs, same outputs. I do believe that this is slightly interesting for unit tests, but I believe that to be the wrong North Star.

I believe robustness is the more important property. I don't want to tell people what they really want, because that would be a little arrogant of me, but I believe that that is the more important property. You want, given similar inputs, to get similar outputs, and it's kind of wild how unreliable LLMs are.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

A way that we test this is by putting UUIDs—your little nonces, I think they're called—in the prompt, and what you want is similar outputs from all of those because it's truly semantically the same question. That robustness is where people get burned with AI making decisions, so I think that is a super-duper important property.

We could also have determinism. That is a thing that can be available. As far as I can mentally model it for programmers, it could be valuable for some use cases, so please educate me in the comments. In general, it's easy. Determinism is something you can trade off for better cost.

We're constantly wanting to be on the intelligence-per-dollar frontier. We are doing absolutely disgusting things to be there. I shouldn't say this, but no one's here to stop me.

swyx

You sign off on your own PR.

Diogo Almeida

That is not how it works at this company. I believe that, this week, my chief of staff, K, is the most powerful person in tech.

swyx

Yeah, and shout-out to K for organizing this.

Diogo Almeida

Holy shit, she is so fucking competent and powerful.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

She's incredible. I mean, she sucks. Don't poach her.

I'm trying to be a bit more filtered, but people are telling me, “Don't call it a Frankenstein's monster of models,” because that has negative implications. I think Frankenstein's monster was the good guy in the whole thing. I mean, it was innocent, right? I didn't read it, okay? I'll confess.

swyx

Version.

Diogo Almeida

My cards are on the table.

swyx

Decent Jacob Elordi movie if you want to see sort of the adaptation. Anyway.

Diogo Almeida

You have no idea how little time I have right now. My priorities are sleep—

swyx

Developers, developers, developers.

Diogo Almeida

Developers, yes. Developers, developers, developers.

We do absolutely disgusting things to be on the Pareto curve of intelligence per dollar, and we're going to keep doing that.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We're going to be doing crazy-ass stuff, and I think people really need to think outside of the box. Part of the reason why we're surprising is that people are taught to think inside the box, and we continue to do things outside of it. As of right now, we're obviously the best at this, and we want to continue being the best at that whole thing.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Wait, where did we tangent from?

swyx

No, so I asked you about seeds and determinism—

Diogo Almeida

Oh, yes.

swyx

—and then you basically defined reliability and how you see it.

Diogo Almeida

And robustness.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

Yes.

swyx

I have a robustness example I can show you real quick.

Diogo Almeida

I would love that. I would just say one thing.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We can make a deterministic model.

swyx

Exactly.

Diogo Almeida

If people can convince us that that's a valuable thing to do, and we don't have a gigantic GPU shortage, we can happily make all of these models. We live to please.

swyx

You will throw over everything, except you do it in a nice way.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

And have fun with it.

Diogo Almeida

So determinism could be on the cards.

swyx

Yeah, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

It just gets you less intelligence per dollar.

swyx

Yeah. Well, just having seen the trajectory of OpenAI on the topic, trust me: you will be peer-pressured into doing it. People will want it even if you tell them they don't need it. They'll still want it.

Diogo Almeida

Okay, okay. I would love to see how that happens one day.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I've been told that part of our brand is being unshakable.

swyx

Uh-huh.

Diogo Almeida

And they say that's just the nice way of saying stubborn.

swyx

Stubborn, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, exactly, and I'm a very stubborn person. I don't think we could have done it.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

No, but I have argued with you before.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. And you've been right about developers every time, so, okay, I give up. You win. You win. I'm sold, and I've argued with you before.

swyx

No, no, I'm just saying that I think you can hold your ground while also, if I give you the right evidence, throwing away your priors and being like, “Yep, that actually makes sense to me.”

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Just trust your own gut on this.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Yep, yep, yep.

But I suspect, though, that we'll be GPU-constrained for a very, very long time.

swyx

Very long, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And anything that has less intelligence per dollar means it consumes more GPUs for the same intelligence. Our goal is not to onboard companies. It's valuable, but our goal is to have people experiment and do weird shit, and we need to get it into as many hands as possible and start a California Gold Rush for that.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

I think there is one right now, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Just a word of caution. I'll just say it because somebody's thinking about it right now.

Diogo Almeida

Ooh, hell yeah.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

When you say things like, “We will not commit to deterministic models,” and, “We'll do whatever it takes for intelligence per dollar,” while we're facing a GPU constraint, people are thinking you may quantize your models, right? Whatever you had at launch, you may quantize down to reduce the quality in order to free up memory or bandwidth or whatever, right?

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

And so you should probably have some kind of promise, which you don't have to make now.

About how we will uphold model quality at launch. You were at OpenAI when you launched all these APIs, and with Claude as well. When they first launched the models, the model strings did not stay the same model at all times.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Right? You have versioning in your models. That’s great.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

But you should publicly commit to some kind of promise that, once a thing is launched, you don’t change it.

Diogo Almeida

We will not change our models when we deploy them. That is insane. We care about developers. Doing something like that—again, this is the problem with a first-party product and an API. You can do whatever you want in a first-party product, right? More power to them; whatever gets that experience is fine. With an API, you obviously can’t do that.

But I will say that we plan to move a lot faster than many people are used to model providers doing things. We will be launching new models a lot faster than people think, and we are not promising long-term support for the models because we think there are lots of improvements to make.

There is a world where we might temporarily LTS Jev 1.13.0 because so many people are using it, and I know developers hate breaking dependencies. The alternative is fracturing our fleet, and that is a very bad vibe for everyone. It’s going to be—

swyx

Yeah, you can’t have 100 different versions of the model.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly. And if we’re iterating very fast, there would be a lot of those versions as well.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We do want to have not just an LTS-supported thing eventually, but a really sick way of doing that. We have research stuff cooking in that direction, and I think it’s going to be the most pro-developer thing ever.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But it is not yet our current model, and I’m not promising that we’ll be able to keep the exact same models. They will get smarter every time, for sure.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

My sense is that, even with our model iterations, once a model is already smart, the changes between model versions tend to be even smaller than the model strings make them seem. But when we go from, like, jagged to, like, wow, that is where the big deltas are.

swyx

Yeah. One thing that’s beautiful about LTS-ing models is that you can also port them to other silicon. I don’t know if you’ve thought about this.

Diogo Almeida

No comment.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

I care about intelligence per dollar.

swyx

Yes, but speed as well.

Diogo Almeida

What?

swyx

Speed as well.

Diogo Almeida

We’ll see. Honestly—

swyx

I mean, it’s a whole part of the inference tech tree that has been exploding in the past year, right? You can move to a Cerebras, an Etched, or whatever, and get a hundred, hundred thousand times speed up.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. I think intelligence per second is a different metric. We’ve even talked about things like intelligence per dollar times second, and metrics like this.

My guess is on Jevons’ paradox occurring, or at least the Jev series of models, and the thing I hunt people down about internally is that I don’t care how much smarter it is; it needs to be in the preeminent tier. That is what the brand of Jev is. It is the best thing at intelligence per dollar.

For intelligence per second, we’ll see. I think that it’s an intriguing thing. I know that there are many industries that are extremely dependent on real-time stuff, and intelligence per second means tons of dollars for them. But we’ll see. I would love to do both and have the market correct me either way.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I would love to be informed by people.

swyx

Yeah, totally. It’s not just about real time, right? It’s also about scale because, at scale, every microsecond is multiplied by billions and trillions of times.

Diogo Almeida

It depends on how much background it’s running in, right? If it’s a big background database MapReduce query, the latency might not matter so much as the cost—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

—to get intelligence from it. But if it’s something more real-time, like user-facing, you have budgets between 100 milliseconds and 1 millisecond that are totally magical. Actually, even if you were below 100 milliseconds, if you could halve that time, that means you can get double the intelligence or make sequential intelligence calls and have a phenomenal experience.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

That is definitely happening right now. It is super-duper cool. I love the intelligence-per-second use cases, but I don’t think that will be Jev’s niche.

swyx

Okay. Yeah, fair enough.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

When thinking about the promise of faster and cheaper, typically the other trade-off that models are offering is faster but more expensive.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

One of the reasons I was thinking about why Jev is resonating so much is that you’ve done the faster-but-cheaper side of the quadrant, which is very, very unoccupied, while holding intelligence somewhat constant.

Diogo Almeida

Yes. That’s a very load-bearing statement: “while holding intelligence constant.” That’s the hard part, right?

swyx

Which, unfortunately, means you refuse to do any public benchmarks, or you don’t like any public benchmarks about it.

Diogo Almeida

I’ve actually pre-committed—

swyx

But you need some internal sense of this.

Diogo Almeida

Of course.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Of course. We have our own internal evals, for sure.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But it takes a lot of discipline not to game those, and it needs to be a top-level priority not to game them.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Of course we do that. How else can we guarantee that our models are in the preeminent tier of intelligence per dollar? We’re not flying blind in there, right? If we’re doing completely weird things with different costs or whatever else, how do we compare them? We plot them and try to figure out what is best for the users.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

So we definitely measure them. I’m not anti-measuring. But it’s extremely dangerous when you have any alternative incentive, and this is the one thing that I rule with an iron will. Maybe my coworkers might think I rule many things with an iron fist, but to me, not shitting ourselves about how smart our model is is one of the most important things there.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We need to be truth-seeking.

swyx

Yeah. Agreed. Okay, I wanted to go over some details on the API choices, mostly because this is the only podcast that will ask you these kinds of questions.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, hell yeah. Hell yeah.

7. Three Primitives For AI

swyx

You have 3 primitives: choice, score, null. First of all, null—where is that from? Is this like a term in the literature or what? I've never heard that.

Diogo Almeida

Now it is. We debated this a lot. It is bool-ish, right? True or false.

swyx

But it’s continuous.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, exactly. First, the origin of the name is Bernoulli. That’s why it’s even spelled that weird way, as a subset of the name Bernoulli, from a Bernoulli probability.

swyx

Right.

Diogo Almeida

That is the origin of it. We were debating this a lot. We liked PBool, we liked Pool, and we were wanting to call it a pool party, but then no one let me. We had a bunch of other arguments about that, and null, we figured, was like the best thing.

Our rationale—and this was actually the same thing with Jev, too—is that we think we’re an irreverent, insane bunch, and programmers don’t care. If Jev is just going to be a string, we didn’t expect it to catch on or even have puns or anything like that. There was a lot of hate on the name internally. They’ve all apologized except for one person—

swyx

Still holding strong.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, our mutual friend.

swyx

Okay, okay.

Diogo Almeida

Yes.

swyx

I respect her for that.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. She wanted Jev to be called Meow.

swyx

She would, of course.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, of course.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

My co-founder, yeah.

swyx

You in there.

Diogo Almeida

We had to make a new concept for null because if it were a bool, it would be confusing to people. So, actually, all 3 of these are new concepts.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

These are not types that exist in programming, and that was intentional because they map very closely to types, but they’re not quite that. A score is not an int, so if you had, like, Instructor or Pydantic or whatever, mapping ints or floats into scores, you’d get a little bit cooked.

We were really erring on the side of clarity over making it easy for people to understand what’s going on.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

We had to make a new concept for null because if it were a bool, it would be confusing to people. So, actually, all 3 of these are new concepts.

These are not types that exist in programming, and that was intentional because they map very closely to types, but they’re not quite that. A score is not an int, so if you had, like, Instructor or Pydantic or whatever, mapping ints or floats into scores, you’d get a little bit cooked.

We were really erring on the side of clarity over making it easy for people to understand what’s going on.

swyx

I mean, don’t you worry about that? Don’t you want things to integrate directly into things that people are already using?

Diogo Almeida

Yes, we do.

swyx

You have integrations with other SDKs and stuff.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

But you have your own SDKs.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Typically, for example, as a developer relations person, I would be very obsessive: “Yes, here is how you use Jev with Instructor.”

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

You know, that kind of stuff.

Diogo Almeida

We might have that somewhere. I’m so behind on everything.

swyx

Someone would do it for you in the community.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, yeah. Yeah.

swyx

Now that you’re successful—

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

People will be like, “Oh, that’s cool.”

Diogo Almeida

Cool.

swyx

Anyway—

Diogo Almeida

I don’t see that as binary either.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I actually see success as a score, and there’s always more to climb in how much we can be there for our community, just to be clear. This section is stressful because I didn’t review the docs, and they’re constantly changing.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

To me, scores do exist.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

Scores are similar to LLM judging. So if you want to call it a judgment, I guess you could, but that is the way people already use this type of thing.

Maybe a null could be a probability, but everything for us is a probability. A choice is actually closest to a function call, but a function call is an extremely disgusting thing that we should go back into later. A choice is just the right way of exposing a switch/match statement within code.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

So, in the enum, choice is the important part of that.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

I think these all map into programming primitives. Choice maps into a switch statement on an enum.

swyx

Oh.

Diogo Almeida

Nulls map to if statements.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Scores map to sorting or thresholding at greater than or less than.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

This has always been the vision. There will be more types, and they will map into programming primitives.

swyx

Yeah. Any other nuance you want to go through? Literally, this is for the Jev people who are deciding to really invest in Jev. You’re the expert, right? I’m just wanting to provide more background for them on API choices, how they should use some of these things like legends, confidence, how critical they are in your testing, and any sort of pro tips that you want to offer people when we’re down at this level.

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah.

swyx

This is why we’re here.

Diogo Almeida

Thank you. I love this. No one has asked me this in probably months, since I was onboarding our DevRel.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

Our model is designed to be deep in the insides of computer programs in the future. We unironically believe that this will be much more massive than anything people are even considering today, and our model might not be ready for that, but we are continuously working toward that future.

It will never be good enough at these shallow tasks. Sorry, we’re not just going to keep on climbing the shallow tasks. We want to be deep in the guts of programs because that’s how you make software powerful.

This is actually an output.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

All the parts of the input—the state, the instructions, the criteria—can be structured JSON objects.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

That way, programs can insert them in the right spot, and you don’t need to put things into templates.

Exactly. I think people don’t read into this part enough, and they think it’s all strings. That’s fine, but these are all meant to be structured. I would say that if you’re using a template, like turning it into a system message or something, you’re thinking in the old way.

We should be making things as easy for computers to understand as possible because that structure is truly there. It would be weird in a programming language to have all of your numbers and then pass them into a string. Normally, you do that for printing when you have a human in the loop, but within the computer, you want to be passing nested structure that is semantic all around.

We are really optimizing our model in that direction. The model is pretty optimized for this, but every different nested level of structure is harder to reason about, and we are really cooking hard in that direction. I think people should keep cooking in that direction because it makes the code so much more legible and beautiful, and agnostic to the implementation details.

It’s like, here is my state. Here’s my function state. Think of it as an AI function: which subsets of my state, which is all the variables you have available, should I pass in here? System messages are disgusting global variables where you just put everything in there and put all those instructions in at once.

swyx

Slop, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Then you hope that every single instruction gets nailed instead of asking the questions in parallel.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

I truly recommend asking lots and lots of questions. Break them down, make them smaller, and really decompose them. No matter whether the models can do it today or not, I believe that the biggest saving grace of what’s happening this week will be that people’s codebases, their AI codebases, are going to be so much better.

If you decompose problems into simple decisions, every single one of these things is extremely evaluable. Before this, an AI was a big system message, and then maybe you had another big AI to see if it actually did this.

swyx

Big output, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

That’s nuts, you know? It’s kind of crazy. That was our Stockholm syndrome, right? If you want to say, “Hey, don’t read this subdirectory,” or, “Don’t pass any API keys to DeepSeek or whatever else,” that should be programmatically basically guaranteed.

You’ll never have guarantees from any machine-learning model, but by breaking it down, you can actually measure it.

swyx

Yeah. You can verify that it was actually called.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, and our model—the interface itself—is so verifiable. This should be a sigh of relief. It’s just going to lead to way better engineering.

swyx

Yeah. I think I get that. One of the reasons people didn’t used to do this in the past is because they would just call a small LLM, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

And it’s still too slow, still too expensive versus chunking everything. I’ve done exactly this myself.

I benchmarked a pipeline that puts everything in system prompts and then just gets 1 big output versus breaking it down into 100 different things. It was slower, more expensive—

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

—not as good.

Diogo Almeida

Yep, yep, yep.

swyx

Right?

Diogo Almeida

That happens, and it’s super inconvenient. It’s unwieldy. Why not just put it all together? You kind of end up repeating some stuff between questions.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

So it’s maybe inefficient or something like that, but then it results in something that is very hard to rely on.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And software doesn't need to run in the background. It would break my heart if our stuff couldn't run in the background.

swyx

Is there a way to break things down that you guys have found works, versus what you thought worked and doesn't work?

Diogo Almeida

Interesting.

swyx

Because people are just going to be exploring this now that you've said it. They would use this as a reference and be like, “Okay, that's how I'm supposed to use Devin.”

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Then the question is, how do you break things down?

Diogo Almeida

Interesting. I like to break things down into their smallest semantic unit.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

What is the lowest-level thing? I've probably queried the model more than anyone.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

Number one, in my queries—this is a lot more like the way I prompt things—I make it really, really structured and explicit. In the questions, I always—I like the backticks, but it works for all of them—make it really clear what I'm referring to, because we want the model to be really literal.

When you program, you want things that follow instructions really, really well. That is what the art of programming is, and what AI does is expand the kinds of instructions that can be followed. So I'm a fan of doing that.

Sometimes I'm a little lazy, and I have more hybrid things, but I think that for really big production things, you just want to keep adding more questions, and you want to make it really easy to add more questions. Be really, really precise about all of that breakdown, and then have the code to have the exact behavior you want.

If I could give a tiny little example of this, it's refusals. I'm not going to talk about why we don't refuse. I might have done that already.

swyx

Yeah. You did already.

Diogo Almeida

It's all a blur.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

For refusals, I don't think you should ask, “Should I refuse here?” That's a really... The answer will be pretty good because that's a System 1-compatible task. But I think you're way better off asking many different independent questions about the different situations you can refuse about. Instead of having to just guess, you can actually specify what you want.

I think this is truly really beautiful. If you find a situation where it's like, “Oh, it didn't refuse because of this reason; I didn't specify this part of the task,” that is awesome. That's what software engineering is about. You fix the bug by adding that question, adding the threshold, maybe remembering that as a test case, and now it is just solved forever.

Your software can't forget about that in the prompt because of context rot. It is just there, and you can keep measuring that forever. If the models are not perfect at some of these things, you can choose what threshold you want for all of these factors based on real examples. It's like ML without the ML, and you can just do it for anything.

There might be some things the model isn't good enough at yet. I would be a little bit afraid when I see people doing trading with the models—

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Automated trading.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

It looks cool. I just think that people should leave it to the professionals. That's just a very hard, high-level task that maybe the models aren't good enough yet to figure out.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Well, even if they were, then it suddenly wouldn't be because of efficient markets. But that's one of those things where you can break it down into things and just evaluate them, and you might be like, “It's not smart enough at this. Maybe we don't deploy it yet for this version.”

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Or we make a trade-off, or we err on the side of safety. Or, hey, the models are not good enough at detecting this weird combination of sarcasm with a VIP customer—that's when we escalate to a human. That's what confidence estimates are about, too.

swyx

Okay. Great answer. I think one thing I'll mention very quickly, which I don't expect you to have too long an answer for—

Diogo Almeida

You don't.

swyx

Well, no, no, no, no. It's just—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Typically, you are still relying on thresholding as the lever that the user can pull.

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

But what if the calibration is wrong? You're saying your calibration is perfect, but—

Diogo Almeida

I didn't say that.

swyx

I mean, perfect calibration—or a good calibration—means that a lower value corresponds to a lower probability and a higher value corresponds to a higher probability. But it could be wrong.

Diogo Almeida

Of course, of course.

swyx

It could be locally misaligned.

Diogo Almeida

Yes.

swyx

And so then I would want to fine-tune it or something, right? Which you don't offer, but you could. I—

Diogo Almeida

We could.

swyx

And again, see, this is a short answer—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Oh—

swyx

You don't have it right now.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, do we want to offer fine-tuning, is the question?

swyx

That could be one version of it, or you could have a different knob, right? Because right now, all you're saying is, if something's wrong, a skill issue: you should just change the prompt again or break it down even further, or change the confidence.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Those are my 2 options.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Right? And that doesn't feel super satisfying if your model is just getting it wrong.

Diogo Almeida

Yep. And it will get many things wrong, to be clear. We have a report issues button; complain to us in Discord. We want to make it a lot better. Every single model version will be notably better.

We will stop shipping them quickly if they aren't getting big improvements. Number one, that is totally reasonable. I think that's simply pragmatic: admit that AI is imperfect at some stuff, right?

I do think we'll find use cases that they are good enough at, and good enough kind of depends on the use case, right? Human beings can do a lot of work despite being bad at that work because their EV is quite high. Presumably, with the right thresholding and everything, there probably is large amounts of work that could be done even if mistakes are being made.

On the question of fine-tuning, I could imagine it being in the cards. I do have concerns because, in the “what people need versus what people want” category, again, there's the je ne sais quoi of generality: making it good at a million other tasks than this one narrow task might make it better at edge cases in that task, which I would be a little bit afraid of.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I could imagine it. That's my answer. I'm endlessly practical on these things. I want everything. There's so much we want to be building.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But also, I would not want to ship something that is a giant foot gun like some other AI companies.

swyx

Well, you know, both OpenAI and Claude and, I think, even Gemini have rolled out fine-tuning and then taken it back.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

That pretty much means fine-tuning is now in the domain of open-source models.

Diogo Almeida

Yes. Yes.

swyx

Diogo Almeida

I do know about that, and it was kind of crap, so that's probably better—that they took it down.

swyx

Yeah. So it could just be a foot gun, and then telling people that fine-tuning it is probably the wrong way to go is great. Another interesting answer could be that, well, our model is so different—in the same way that quantization doesn't apply to us, output tokens don't apply to us, fine-tuning also doesn't apply to us.

Diogo Almeida

Well, actually, I'm super open to that possibility.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

This is not a promise; this is a desire, just to make it clear. I like to be really honest. I think that, as intelligence per dollar gets cheaper, cheaper, cheaper, cheaper, we could get really small, approximate things that hopefully are proxies for intelligence.

Is there a world where people don't write regexes anymore because the intelligence per dollar that uses AI is cheaper than the complexity of a regex? That would be kind of sick. I would love that, and it might require fine-tuning for some of those narrow use cases to really get past the threshold.

We will see. My hope is calibration gets that. Calibration plus a cascade of models: if it's super confident, then maybe it's right, and if it's in the middle, then you do the next bigger model and chain off from there.

I don't really know how that's going to go, but yeah, I could imagine it. And something that I could imagine too is, imagine you have a series of models—we own the entire Pareto frontier. Something that a business might want to do, or I think a hacker would be okay with dealing with, is a Pareto frontier of models. Maybe a business wants something more dynamic. You could imagine having different sizes of models and dynamically picking which model based on how smart it is on different parts of your stack, and you could even imagine, because of how simple our thing is, some automatic fine-tuning on that.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Not the promise in the slightest. I'm just cooking on sci-fi.

swyx

But you would consider different sizes of dev models, to offer that gradient?

Diogo Almeida

Absolutely. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Like, how would I know how much intelligence people need?

swyx

I don't know.

Diogo Almeida

Right? Yeah, I don't know either.

swyx

Demand is unlimited.

Diogo Almeida

Well, yeah, people are telling us not to ship things right now because we don't need to ship things because, again—

swyx

It's good enough. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, but that's kind of lame, and I really like the saying—this is something that I hope people hold me to, because it'll be hard to—

swyx

To come back—

Diogo Almeida

—to walk back from.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. I don't know if it's exactly the saying that culture is what you do when the market doesn't reward it, and I really like that because I think that we are standing for something. Maybe in the future, what we're standing for is so obvious that we're the equivalent of boring Visa or something like that. We're just a utility that no one really thinks about, and I'll be wearing non-pink suits or whatever else. But I really want to be rallying the world to this. I want to keep doing cool stuff, not because we need to, but because I want people to realize that this is just the beginning. That wasn't even meant to be the opening salvo. That was kind of a low-key research preview, or whatever you want to call it.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And there's a lot more we can do.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Machine-native intelligence is going to go wild.

swyx

So not the only size, potentially not the only model that you guys launch—you want to open people's minds—

Diogo Almeida

Absolutely not for any of those.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I want to meet whatever needs we can.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Right? But with a giant caveat: I don't want to be like OpenAI's product teams that throw stuff at the walls. I want it to be under a unified vision. If you go back to the manifesto, everything needs to be under one of these three—

swyx

Uh—

Diogo Almeida

Three things, in my opinion.

swyx

I'm not prepared to do this—

Diogo Almeida

Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry for asking. I can just talk about it. We have, like, three steps in our stuff.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

It sounds like a tease. I want everything to go under one of these three things—

swyx

Good. Good.

Diogo Almeida

—to keep pushing the boundaries and everything. These are not checklists. These are axes that we think build the foundation of a new technological revolution. I want all of the bets we make to be somewhere in there, and we will be doing some weird, weird stuff model-wise. Because machine-native, right? Humans don't need to totally get it. It just needs to be valuable.

swyx

Give people a tease or hints. What does weird look like? What is weird?

Diogo Almeida

I'll give people a hint.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Some people are trying to call them decision models.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

Our primitives are decisions. I wouldn't do that, because I think there are other types that are machine-native that are not decisions.

swyx

Okay. We'll leave it at that—

Diogo Almeida

Is that a fun hint?

swyx

—and let people guess. Yeah, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah. I think it's a pretty fun hint.

swyx

Yeah, yeah. There are people saying, “I've done this before. I made a decision model a year ago. Geff is not new. Geff's not cool.”

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

But I think there's the categorical point: here's what you're establishing is possible. There's the performance—well, actually, for the benchmarks and the numbers that you're getting, you are still beating, as far as I can tell, every single clone of you out there.

Diogo Almeida

I don't care about the benchmarks, just to be clear.

swyx

Exactly.

Diogo Almeida

So even if we were winning or losing, I want to denounce them.

swyx

You've established the category, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yep, yep.

swyx

But also, I think this nuance between decision models and System 1 is actually the thing that you're trying to—

Diogo Almeida

Yes. I just want to make software engineers superpowered.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Right? With AI. The tragic thing to me is, in that AI winter direction, I think it's so sad that AI was so powerful yet so underutilized. It's a thing that gets me emotional. But, man, I think that's—I don't want to be a pure techno-optimist, like all technology is good. I think what's happening now is a travesty. I just want to open up those possibilities for people.

Yeah, I'll end it there. I've cried too much these last few days to want to do it on the record.

swyx

Yeah, yeah. No, I appreciate you sharing a little bit of that, and I think people can see that you're very authentic and—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

—and passionate about this. You don't necessarily get that from a name like TypeSafe AI, but I think once people immerse themselves enough in the genuinely different direction you want the world to go, and actually you have done the hard part about going from zero to one on the thing, then now let's all go together in the new direction, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Yeah, yeah.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But I don't know. Maybe I will think that the hard part was done, perhaps. I think that there's going to be many more hard parts. If all sorts of stuff gets automated and we finally see GDP growth and it's a Geff party every day, then maybe the hard part is done. But I don't think so. And I really, really think that people focus too much on speed and cost and not enough on reliability.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

Reliability is what makes it delightful. Reliability is what allows you to trust it.

swyx

You have this line—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

“TFP growth rate: 3% in 5 years.”

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah.

swyx

I've never seen—

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah. Let's fucking go.

swyx

I've never seen—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

—a lab care about TFP growth.

Diogo Almeida

But that is what an economic revolution is, right? It's actually extremely consistent with what the OpenAI charter used to stand for.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

The charter is the same, but they've kind of tried to move definitions around to, you know, 100 billion in profit or something like that. Not that I hate OpenAI.

swyx

It wasn't a well-defined term, what AGI is, right?

Diogo Almeida

They tried to do it.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Right? Doing the majority of the world's economically valuable work. They should have to answer the question: How can it do Millennium Prize Problems in math and zero of the world's economically valuable work, like rounding error? I think that all models are roughly tied right now at zero. There's some chance that we have started already, but I would guess that it's not yet 1%. And I think that when it does happen, it will show up in the economic statistics.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

It's going to be fucking awesome. It will not cause mass unemployment, but it will cause a whole bunch of awesome shifts, and the world will be a lot better. And I'm really tired of AI always being the foreground character of things. I think the world should just be more delightful, and AI should just help with that.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

You know—

swyx

Just disappear into the background.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

You know, I say this in my talks: how can it be that 2019 software—software, SaaS, whatever—was super-duper valuable, right? It's 2026 now.

How is the software basically exactly the same despite AI being so freaking awesome, other than sometimes having a chat box on the side? That kind of works, but it doesn't allow you to make decisions that the companies have stakes in because they can't be trusted to make decisions. That, to me, is nuts. There's so much economic incentive for this, and I think it's going to be an inverse SaaSpocalypse. I think SaaS is going to be supercharged by this. They are the ones who are most in the know about what things are valuable to automate, and it's going to be a crazy time.

swyx

Yeah. I think so too. It's a beautiful thing that you've unlocked, you know?

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

You mentioned one thing here, which I don't know if it's directly related: What is a System 1 problem, and what is a System 2 problem?

Diogo Almeida

Fuck. That's a hard one. That's a hard one, my friend.

swyx

Because people now are just trying to Jev everything, right?

Diogo Almeida

Jev everything.

swyx

Which probably is going to fail, right? But some things are going to be good.

Diogo Almeida

“Jev everything” is pretty funny. It's a pretty funny way of saying it. So I'll tell you the truth.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

The truth is that this is an empirical problem, just like scaling laws are an empirical thing. Why doesn't robotics really work right now despite all the money being spent on it?

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

I don't think it's about necessarily spending more money. The empirical results might just not be there, right?

Empirically, I believe that these pre-trained super-condensations of intelligence are fundamentally System 1 thinkers. I think System 1 is the closest thing to describe what LLMs are strong at. RLVR has done incredible things for System 2 thinking. I am in awe. It is super freaking cool.

I don't think that it's going to result in AI doom in the slightest. Not zero percent, of course, because I think zero percent is miscalibrated. But it's really cool what they've done, and they've really pushed it to the limits. Well, maybe they don't think so—not the limits of limits—but it is a weird thing for models to do, and they are very fragile at this.

Think about how people used to talk about AI back in the ChatGPT days: “Wow, it's really general. It can do a lot of general things.” But it was bad at math problems and GSM8K grade-school math. Now look at how people talk about RLVR. It's so fragile. It's so jagged. Why can it do this really weird thing? And actually, math is not just spiky; it's fractal, right?

This is because RLVR is—if we talk about the North Star for each thing—RLHF is “please humans,” right? That is what the human feedback is. RLVR is “optimize benchmarks.” Everything that goes into the RLVR category literally is a benchmark by definition, because a benchmark is programmatically verifiable, with simple outputs that can do well. RLCD is “make it reliable for programmatic use.” And, yeah, that's—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

This—maybe I'll offer some thoughts, and then you can correct me if I'm wrong.

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

For example, one thing that I've been thinking about is that I threw Jev at a bunch of things when you gave me access on day 1. Multi-hop reasoning, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Single-hop is fantastic.

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

State of the art. You should never use anything other than Jev for single-hop.

Diogo Almeida

Yep, yep, yep.

swyx

Multi-hop starts to fall down.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

And it's kind of monotonically increasing as you increase the hops.

Diogo Almeida

Yep, yep, yep.

swyx

Right?

Diogo Almeida

Oh, yes, back to that empirical question. It depends on what we can pull out of the models, right? We want everything. We want to unearth as much intelligence as possible, period.

I see us as unlocking, smoothing, and sculpting the intelligence, while adding new capabilities and filling in gaps in it. We will be filling in more and more of these gaps over time. But the reality is that we are in the business of unearthing properties.

Those properties are actually a function of what is available from these condensed cores, and of Frankensteining them all together to have all of the properties of everything.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

The reality is that we are in the business of unearthing as many capabilities as possible, and System 1 just happens to be the description of what works. Everything that works in that paradigm will be System-1-ish.

There is a reason why we don't do what's called latent reasoning—reasoning in strings.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I think what models do really well is reasoning within the models. It's not totally complete. It doesn't do great at all.

swyx

Wait, latent reasoning is reasoning in strings? I thought latent reasoning was reasoning inside the model weights. I just wanted to clarify.

Diogo Almeida

People used to call that—

swyx

I don't know. I just wanted to clarify.

Diogo Almeida

People used to call that continuous reasoning.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

I'm not entirely sure. It was called latent reasoning because the reasoning traces were secret, so they're kind of like a latent variable for the answer.

swyx

Ha.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

So what's secret is now shifted.

Diogo Almeida

Well, it's still secret for OpenAI and Anthropic, right?

swyx

So no reasoning, Jev, as far as you'll ever do it, right? Because that violates the whole promise of System 1.

Diogo Almeida

My promise is to do whatever is necessary for machine-native stuff.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I could imagine there are some forms of reasoning that are less slow, inefficient, and fragile that are totally on the cards, just to be clear. I'm a pragmatic person. I'm not making promises on methods. I'm making promises on what my ROI North Star is, and I'm going to fight for that.

This launch didn't happen, and we are still hungry for our place in the world.

swyx

That's great. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

I think the other thing is that vision is another big capability that you don't have. But maybe it doesn't ever belong in System 1.

Diogo Almeida

I think I have pretty good vision.

swyx

What? Sorry?

Diogo Almeida

I think I have good vision.

swyx

No, no, no. Sorry—

Diogo Almeida

I'm kidding. I'm kidding.

swyx

Oh my God.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

swyx

Because, obviously, the first thing people want is vision because of the Doom demo, but also just everything other than text is vision.

Diogo Almeida

Everything is in the cards in my mind.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

This is a debate we have. Your audience is probably a great one to have in this debate. There's a question about how much we try to give people what they think they want, which is what we did in stealth for 2 years. We just knew that this was obviously going to be valuable, versus giving them what they say they want.

There are a lot of dimensions to this. Context length is an example of this. Every single model, including ours—I actually think, as far as I can tell, ours is by far the best at not degrading in long context—

swyx

The longest context. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

—but the other providers are just like, “Whatever people wanted, let's just give them the stupid thing.” We need to figure out a balance for this because—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

If you take the former side too far—give people what they want—you end up with Anthropic nanny-state-style thinking, which is very anti-developer. While the pro-developer route would be to give them what they want, we don't want to put the burden on developers to figure out the je ne sais quoi of intelligence.

So we are trying to figure out how quickly to release things, to still have our brand of trust and also treat our users like adults who can make informed decisions and don't need nanny-stating on top of this stuff.

swyx

Yep. I think that's fair.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. And we don't know the answer, to be honest. We'll have to figure it out.

That's probably going to be one of my biggest debates over the next couple of days.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Because we have a lot of stuff. Again, we didn't expect it to pop off, so we were like, "We need some follow-up launches."

swyx

I don't know if you didn't expect it to pop off. I saw the work that you put in. I've never seen you lock in so hard. It was like the last 2 months, basically, right?

Diogo Almeida

Well, that's also because my chief of staff made me lock in. I thought I worked hard before.

swyx

Yeah. No, but—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

You were showing up at our writing workshops, and I was like, "What are you doing here?"

Diogo Almeida

It was useful. It was great.

swyx

You clearly were very intentional about your launch.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

The work showed, and congrats—all the kudos.

Diogo Almeida

Thank you. Thank you.

I hope to keep locking in—that's my sense.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I think we've passed many great filters for the tech world and what we're wanting, but there's still going to be a bunch more. Holy smokes, am I excited to fight the good fight.

swyx

Yeah. It's exciting. Before we broaden out to topics outside of TypeSafe, I just wanted to offer you the opportunity to mention any other things that you think are underrated or misunderstood about what you have launched.

Diogo Almeida

Underrated or misunderstood?

swyx

Yeah. You have patterns here. Maybe you want to go into that. Model jaggedness, anything.

Diogo Almeida

Give me one—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Noodling of it. Oh, man. I would rant about all of these. I really shouldn't. I really shouldn't.

swyx

Okay. People can go to your Discord if they want.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. People put a lot of love into the cookbooks, is what I will say. The cookbooks have some fire stuff. We had considered putting a bunch of these things in the main launch blog post, but it got kind of long and unwieldy and very power-user-y.

I'll be frank: before the launch, everything we were saying sounded like this weird alien tool. Why would anyone need this? It was a very weird thing, and we were very worried about teaching people about this new frontier. It obviously succeeded, but we put a lot of work into it because we thought the education would be a gigantic bottleneck for us. It probably worries us, and it's probably no longer a problem because people are doing things well beyond what you could ever expect.

swyx

They'll show you how to use your model.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly. Their use cases are kind of cooler than ours. There's a bunch of stuff where I'm like, "Man, if that was our demo, holy shit, that is way cooler than what we were showing."

The computer-use stuff, holy smokes, is it cool. We put a lot of love into this. This is not AI-generated trash, as far as I know.

swyx

Yeah. Fair enough.

Diogo Almeida

Each of these has real alpha there. These are inspired by solving real customer problems that existed, and we went through the work of helping them do cool-ass stuff.

swyx

How much validation did you do before launch? What was that process like?

Diogo Almeida

What was that process like?

swyx

Clearly, you did some, but obviously you're not getting in touch with as many people as you are today.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, of course.

swyx

But—

Diogo Almeida

I actually think that the reception was pretty bad. For the nontechnical people on the team, they were really worried. There was a lot of fear. No one really gets this, and they don't want it. We're selling a vitamin and not a painkiller. Should we have FDEs write the software around solving that problem?

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We had almost no revenue before launch. The technical people were obviously true believers. We knew that this was sick. Its computational properties are off the charts on so many axes that we were like, "Yeah, obviously it's going to be huge."

I was definitely super afraid, which is why I locked in super hard. But the most common thing was that, I would say, more than half the people we had play with it just did not get it. The people who did were like, "Man, this is really cool, but how do we get this through procurement and stuff like that?"

It was quite a battle, and we just knew, okay, our target market is going to be developers. People will find the use cases, and that way everyone is going to FOMO in. I don't want to rub it in when people change their minds as the facts change.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

I do want to call into question the concept of product-market fit. There was a product, and there was a market. We were like, "Hey, do you want to use this?" And people were like, "I don't really know if it solves our problems." Then it explodes and everyone's like, "We need as many rate limits as we can. Can we literally give you GPUs? Because we are constrained right now?"

Marketing is an element of it, of course, but I don't even think it's about marketing. I think it's about passionate developers whose souls basically resonated at the same frequency, and that frequency got everyone else excited too.

I'm hoping as well that we as a company will be eternally grateful to those developers—not just the companies that start off with developers and go to enterprises.

swyx

Big corporate market, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I'm even thinking about how we can launch things that are better for—

Oh, man, I don't know if I should say this, but I will.

swyx

Better for developers than enterprises.

Diogo Almeida

Exactly.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

How do we do that? How do we empower them? I have cooks, I have cooks, but it's a very weird thing to do, and I don't know how else I can show my thanks and loyalty to that.

That's why I dyed my hair yesterday. I wanted to talk to them because it felt dirty to me, during our company's most important times, not to keep talking to them.

swyx

Good. Well, that's one of the reasons you're here.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Hold me to that, please.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah. We will, we will.

I try to be principled.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Quote me on this. Call me out. Have the pitchforks out if I change.

swyx

I was just going to briefly show the computer-use stuff.

Diogo Almeida

Whoa.

swyx

Is this what you're referencing?

Diogo Almeida

I've seen an airline browser-use thing.

Speaker 2

Inside this new note, let's make the title say, "Hello."

Diogo Almeida

Wow.

Speaker 2

Great. Okay. Let's move on. Can you open the Arc Browser? And once you're there, can you Google search Norbert Wiener? Now can you open x.com?

swyx

Is this the kind of use case?

Diogo Almeida

Oh, the voice use cases. This is actually the first one I've seen. This is—

swyx

Oh, okay.

Speaker 2

Open up the photo booth.

Diogo Almeida

Wow. Oh, wait, wait, wait, wait. Hold on. Can you go back a second? Can you go back a second?

Rumors claim Anthropic engineers worship Claude as God. Wow. Dang, that's pretty funny.

swyx

And here you are building prod.

Diogo Almeida

Absolutely—wow, this is sick.

swyx

Clearly, you can operate the whole computer with voice, with Jev as a decision model.

Diogo Almeida

So just like I'm anti-benchmaxing, I'm also anti-demos. I want to make sure that it works reliably. I love that people are playing with it.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

This is super fucking sick, have no doubt. I want to see this. I want to see it be used. I want our team to play with it. I want to find the weaknesses, and I want to solve that.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Man, that looked really cool. That looked really cool. I want that. I want that. When my wrists are sore, I just whisper flow everything. That'd be sick.

swyx

Well, just to round out the use-case side—

'Cause I do have to let you go. Who are the bigger companies that have reached out and surprised you with what they want to do?

Diogo Almeida

I am so out of touch with that. People have shown me screenshots of companies, and from what I've seen, it's all of them.

swyx

Yeah. Mostly, for those people who work at larger companies and aren't doing this kind of work, I just want to give people examples of: you should go look that up, look that up, look that up.

Diogo Almeida

Oh. So, I think demos are super-duper sick. Obviously, coding agents are gigantic use cases. They're also super sick.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

Can I give a little bit of a tangent about coding agents, if that's okay?

swyx

Yes, please. We love coding agents here.

Diogo Almeida

Okay, actually, I'll come back to coding agents. Let me describe the big families of use cases.

We've mapped this out from first principles, long before release. They are what we call dark data. People hoarded big data, but they wouldn't throw an LLM at it because it was too expensive. Large companies love this. They have piles of data that they wish they could analyze, and this is a data scientist's wet dream.

This is a giant one. I think this plus coding agents are the big money makers, because that's where all the volume is, right? There's the real-time stuff. People who need intelligence in the loop—I would guess that every CEO, if not CTO, at those companies knows how much better their product gets with every 10 milliseconds shaved.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

And, especially for assistant-y things, there are many AI assistants, and as far as I can tell, they really love it. Again, I'm not on the front lines with customers right now, so I just know what my team tells me.

I'm so excited for this. I'm really excited for this for games. I really want to play sick-ass auto battlers where you're commanding your team, or semi-auto battlers. I think that'd be so cool, but don't make it too good while I still have a job.

There's also what we call “verify everything”—verifying all LLM calls, kind of like observability. Actually, on the note of docs, what people should be doing is asking parallel questions, because they're very cheap. So if you have big states you want to ask many questions on—

swyx

This right here? Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Put IDs on every message and then ask a question about each ID. When you have a long state, that way you can pay for the state once and ask lots and lots of questions about each message within it. I think that is a great way to save money, and it's interesting.

swyx

Which, by the way, I always think it's interesting framing system 1 and system 2, because it basically makes the case that you should always make 1, 10, or 100 Jev calls for every 1 reasoning call that you make.

Diogo Almeida

Well, maybe.

swyx

Right.

Diogo Almeida

I mean, I would like people to spend less. Maybe you do half the reasoning calls and 10 Jev calls each, or something like that—whatever solves the problem that couldn't have existed otherwise.

The fourth use case was what I describe as smart software: software that's intrinsically composable and does weird, fun stuff that could never happen before. You know, like the programming-language-as-Jev thing. I don't know if you've seen that. That is so cool.

If we knew how to give out credits—we're really early in our infra days—I would want to give all these projects credits.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

I think those are how we've mapped out the main use cases. Computer use has also come in kind of the real-time direction, and that's really, really cool. If it's reliable, I am super jazzed about that. I suspect we can make the model a lot better at these use cases because that came out of left field a little bit, so that's really cool.

On the coding-agent thing, this is a really surprising thing that's happening right now.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

Cloud Code and Codex are, I believe, the winners—the number 1 and 2. I'm not entirely sure. I don't follow closely—

swyx

Roughly.

Diogo Almeida

It's roughly that. But they're built around a single-model world. That makes a lot of sense for them, right? It has been a one-model game where it's kind of the same model, but with different levels of intelligence that you're shopping for.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

But all the open coding agents are fucking jazzed right now because they're getting their Jevons on. I'm sure they're trying a lot of weird stuff.

But all the coding agents are roughly at approximate parity, right? There's not so much you can do with a while loop. The moment one person finds 1 killer use case that you can only do with that coding agent, everyone will flock to it because they have a monopoly on that thing. But all the open coding agents will be able to copy that, right?

I don't know what Claude Code and Codex will do, because they're built around that one-model world.

swyx

Single model, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I think that's going to be a really interesting thing. I would love to be able to integrate with them personally. I want to integrate with everyone. They might make competitors eventually; I don't know. But it is not my job as Sonfire Infrastructure to be opinionated on that, right? I want to just serve the world.

I don't know if they would do that. I think it'll make the coding-agent game super weird. I'm so excited for that.

I'm getting my team to review an internal document I made on design patterns I suspect will be useful for coding agents, so hopefully I can share it right after I walk home. I think there's just such a ripe area for exploration out in the world. If I didn't have this, I would love to experiment with coding agents right now.

swyx

Yeah, I mean, I'm sure the coding-agent companies would love to work with you as well to figure that out. I do think that there are still use cases for Cloud Code and Codex with you guys, which are easy to explore there.

I mean, you've been very obliging and indulging in all these things. I just want to take you out of TypeSafe and talk generally about alignment and safety. You've made your position on the state of AI very clear, so I'll give you more room on the alignment and safety side of things.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, did I not talk about safety and alignment at all?

swyx

Oh, you did. You did.

Diogo Almeida

Maybe I didn't. I think maybe I didn't.

swyx

You did. I think there's a lot of researcher discussion around this. We have this every NeurIPS.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

What are people talking about? For example, I was recently at one of these researcher gatherings, and people are genuinely worried about the pacing. There's this whole topic about how we should slow down because the public is clearly not ready. I'm sure you have strong feelings.

Diogo Almeida

I feel like this is the kind of thing that is a dangerous—

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

—topic to talk about. I'm happy to talk about it. I live for danger.

Our company brand is chaos. It's not Jev. It is irreverence and chaos.

swyx

And, you know, you were at OpenAI during one of the very first, very visible incidents—the blip, right? The dominoes have gone down now to the point where every frontier lab has co-signed a document saying that they want to pace.

Diogo Almeida

Interesting. It's a very complicated, nuanced thing. I actually do want to write a response to this more formally. I do have a short version of my response.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Which is that, as you RLVR more, RLVR is not actually about verifiable rewards. That has been failing since before the reasoning revolution. And that's the weird part about tasks, right? Back when—

Oh, fun history. Back when RLHF was becoming a thing, there were 3 different things that are now called post-training—different efforts. Instruction following was by far the bastard child. People didn't like it. They didn't want to take it into account. It was annoying.

I talked to the pre-training team, and I'm like, “Guys, this is the magic.” And they're like, “We've run so many model sweeps. You want us to wait for human evals to figure out which models to use?” Everyone was giving tons of resources to the code generation team, which did have some successes, but they were trying really hard to do RL on code, like unit tests. And it didn't work, obviously, right? You needed reasoning for that.

So, just to be clear, RLVR is not purely about the reward. It's about the shape of everything, too. Part of it is that reasoning is included in here, like this latent variable that you're doing things with. And when you're doing things, you're just letting the models do whatever they want in order to make them as powerful as they can be to answer the hardest problems.

8. The Pacing Debate

This whole “pace the frontier” discussion, I think, is a very narrow focus because it assumes that everyone needs to do more RLVR, right? I obviously don't think I need to do more RLVR on our models.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

You know, I think zero is the optimal amount for our shape. Right? Come on.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

It's really, I think, a bit of a sleight of hand where they're saying that we actually want to keep doing the thing that looks dangerous because it does dangerous things. People say, “Oh, maybe the sandboxing was a problem,” or whatever else. Yeah, I mean, obviously it is, and they could have easily solved that, right? But they chose not to because the more things you let the models do in this “do anything” category, the more powerful they are, right?

I think there's some dissolution of responsibility there on things that, by design or non-design, they're trying to make. It's just an assumption. We must do RLVR, and not just must do it—we must do more and more and more—by giving the models the power to do powerful things, to do anything they want in the middle, because that teaches them to be powerful outside of it. And we don't want to limit those things because it'll make them slightly less powerful at those things.

So if you assume all of that, they're like, “Oh, yeah—”

swyx

That's a logical conclusion.

Diogo Almeida

“We're heading into a dangerous world, guys.” Everyone is going to be doing this, and this is the only way to make AI sick. So—

swyx

Right.

Diogo Almeida

Of course. I think there's very few people who've made the right bets on the Bitter Lesson direction. You know, new directions of AI. Or new North Stars. That is rare. Again, I think 2.2 times or something for LLMs themselves, like RLHF and then RLCD.

swyx

Oh.

Diogo Almeida

RLVR is a 0.2, in my opinion, and I think that's generous. Or 0.5; it could be 1.1. I don't really care. But I do think that people are thinking very closed-mindedly about this type of thing. The only people who are at fault here are the researchers, because it's definitely not the populace. They just assume that OpenAI and Anthropic are doing the best they can, and they are not the experts who are aware of the true optionality available.

swyx

Yeah. And that's fair. You're also doing your part in waking them up.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Well, I'm doing my best. But my goal is not to convince labs that there are other directions to go down. My goal is to—you know, it's like—spark hope in software engineers to start actually automating things they've always wanted automated.

I had this article that I wrote that my team didn't let me publish, about the future I want for AI. There are a lot of little things. Remember “Do What I Mean”? Imagine if everything could do what I mean, because that demo was “Do What I Mean.”

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Like, there are levels—

swyx

Don't—yeah, don't do what I say.

Diogo Almeida

Hmm?

swyx

Yeah. Don't do what I say. Do what I mean.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. And we couldn't do what I mean yet because computers are so basic and literal. But that computer-use one was just that. And I think there are levels of smoothness that'll happen in the world that people just don't understand.

The promise of smarts all around is—I don't want to overpromise. I don't think it's going to happen right now, but we're going to do whatever the fuck we can to make that happen.

swyx

Yeah. Any other things on the general shape of post-training? You obviously have been very intimately involved. Mid-training—is that something you have comments on? I don't think we've ever talked about it.

Diogo Almeida

Mid-training. I mean, it's all a spectrum.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Right? Like, am I—

swyx

This is a curriculum, but fancier.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. I mean, it's a cost-saving thing, instead of having to pre-train again.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

There are intriguing things. I actually think that intelligence has a je ne sais quoi at every single level, and it's always super-duper fascinating. I am a shape rotator, so I don't like finding that, but I love it when people find it and teach me about it.

And, you know, looking at the data is something our data team is so good at, and I'm not—

swyx

Hmm.

Diogo Almeida

It's really fascinating. I love thinking about how capabilities are put into the model over the short term. There's the really rapid alignment of fine-tuning, and over the long term, after seeing it over and over and over again, this stuff gets baked deeper and deeper and deeper and deeper into the model until it gets robust.

And that is the North Star to surface, and the System 1 stuff is the stuff that ends up getting robust. So I find mid-training to be a fascinating thing. I'm a fan of all forms of training. I'm a fan of all forms of surfacing new types of intelligence. I wouldn't do it all myself because it's expensive.

I've said privately and also—should I say this? Huh. You know, my philosophy is: anything I say in private with an investor, I should say in public with the people, because that is—

swyx

Power to the people.

Diogo Almeida

—my thing.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yes. So the thing I've said before is, if you gave me $1 billion, I wouldn't pre-train. I still believe that to be true. It's a very expensive thing. If you're an AI engineer, you can slice and dice and do all sorts of stuff. Frankensteining is not the most elegant, beautiful thing, but it solves problems, baby.

Anything except pre-training.

swyx

Mm, mm. Yeah. Amazing. I think one direction that I do think is interesting, just synthesizing all your commentary about these model things, is: do we have a supermodel that has all these capabilities involved, or do we break them out further, I guess?

One way to put this is that OpenAI was trending in the direction of the omni model. GPT-4o was one of those. Then, for a brief period of time, there was a kind of a main branch of, “This is the chat-tuned model, and this is the coding-tuned model.”

Diogo Almeida

Those are two completely different things. Those are extremely different concepts. I'll break that down a little bit. Multimodality is a little bit different—

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

—because sometimes the other modalities help, and sometimes they hurt.

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

People are moving—they seem to be moving away from speech, which is different from audio, because it seems not to generalize well to the other stuff.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

This might get solved. I'm a fan of all of this. But these are empirical, real questions. Scaling laws are not about just throwing money at it and it gets good. Scaling laws are, pragmatically, how good is a thing? There are worlds where, no matter what you scale, it may not be good enough.

Computer use is not currently solved, is my understanding. I'm hoping that we can play a part in solving that, but there might be no amount of data we collect that will solve that. We might need better methods or something else like that. You need to be really practical in all of this.

Am I a fan of omni models? I'm a fan of all forms of intelligence, but I will go straight into one thing you talked about, which is different from pre-training, which is post-training—

Because I hate fracturing intelligence. That is the bad thing to me, and this whole chat-first reasoning mode forces intelligence to be fractured. When you're optimizing for chat, this tends to be pure RLHF, and it's intrinsic to RLHF to do the stuff people naturally complain about.

swyx

You're absolutely right.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

You know.

Diogo Almeida

Sycophancy—whatever word, however you pronounce that—overconfidence, hallucination. Even the kind of style that excels in LM Arena: bold, italicized emojis. It doesn't answer the question simply. It gives you a long write-up, and then it asks you a follow-up question, so it feels more like a human talking to you.

All of these things come because strings are super weird. They are weird-ass things, and you need to be miscalibrated. You need to mode-drop. You need to be hyper-confident in order not to go off the rails, because the reward model will punish you so hard when it happens, because it's obvious.

And then this warps the probability space entirely, and it interacts with that of the reasoning models, right? Because the models are these simple linear things that tend to cheat a bit. So I think that's very different from exposing intelligence, is my guess, and a lot of the art of intelligence is studying the subtlety that I think, at least when I was at OpenAI, people were not really studying, because they were just like, "Chat, chat, chat, chat," just like people are on with Jeff right now.

swyx

Yeah, you give me an objective, I will just optimize for that, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yes.

But if you try—and the saying is that you could have 2 objectives and just optimize for both—but that is literally the act of fracturing, right?

swyx

Which is fine.

Diogo Almeida

It's a little different. If I could defend—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

The System 2 tasks. Number 1, we don't toss out the System 2 tasks, right? You can try to make Jeff work on it, and there actually is an intelligent answer for that, which is unknown. There is better and worse behavior in the System 2 tasks, which should be really low-confidence, with lots of uncertainty. Maybe some heuristics can move the needle here and there. But we care about them too, just to be clear.

I just think that that is not what intelligence is native to. So we're not trying to fracture anything like that. All fracturing makes the model dumb. If people get the model to say that it is OpenAI or Qwen or Claude or whatever else—I don't really know what it says these days—I am not going to put into the models that you are Jev from Typesafe. That fractures it, right? I don't want that.

I want it to represent what the internet thinks, right? Be correct. That is what I want, because that's how you get smooth, predictable intelligence.

swyx

I mean, identity is a thing, I guess, that—

Diogo Almeida

I think for an API—

swyx

It may be somewhat of a special—

Diogo Almeida

For a first-party product, yes.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But for an API, I don't think so.

swyx

Yeah, okay.

Diogo Almeida

You know?

swyx

Yeah, that's good.

Diogo Almeida

People don't want, if they're making a chatbot with ChatGPT, for it to say it's ChatGPT. They want it to say it's Chipotle or whatever, right?

swyx

Well, the way that you also have to make up for it is you have the skill, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

The Jev skill—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, they do.

swyx

Which is for coding agents to work with Jeff. Okay, a couple of closing questions, because I do want to get you out. One is just reflecting on your 2-year journey. It's roughly 2 years? 2-point-something?

Diogo Almeida

With the company—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I think that this is more like a 4-year journey.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

But—

swyx

Well, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Actually, I was remembering that you had this hero run around Thanksgiving. You were canceling everything because you were like, "Guys, everyone's on holiday. I'm going to take all the OpenAI GPUs and go do this thing."

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. That was a good time.

swyx

And that was the pre-Typesafe moment, right?

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I might have been—was that when the coup was happening? I don't really know.

swyx

Yes, actually.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah, yeah. That sounds right. I remember. Oh, my God. I don't want to—I don't think I have the time to spill the tea about the coup right now, but that was really annoying.

swyx

Was the coup annoying, or the run was annoying?

Diogo Almeida

The coup was annoying.

swyx

The coup. Okay.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

swyx

Yeah.

Safety took over the company.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

Maybe next time we chat—

swyx

Okay. All right.

Diogo Almeida

I'll spill the tea about—

swyx

Tea.

Diogo Almeida

The coup.

9. The Road From OpenAI

Actually, this problem was one that was in my mind since before ChatGPT even launched. I was like, "Holy shit, the ChatGPT team is cooking. They are doing the right task. They are doing the thing that AI researchers are bad at, but successful product people are good at, which is giving a lot of fucks about the experience."

It's very rare. There are very few people like that at OpenAI. Those guys were cooking on it really, really well.

swyx

And, to be clear, this is the whole journey from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5, which included AI Dungeon—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Which you've talked about as an example of a use case that we never predicted.

Diogo Almeida

Yes, exactly.

swyx

Right.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Oh, yeah, that is also—

I had fought very, very hard to deploy InstructGPT. Actually, the early versions of it were even trained with an algorithm we didn't publish that I made myself, because it was too slow to clean the PPO data. I was like, "Fuck it. This is so fucking good. We need to get it into the hands of users."

Basically immediately, it took 50% of the market share of LLMs at the time. I went through great effort to make sure everything in our launch video was true. I was truly thinking, "Is this AGI because it's superhuman at instruction in, instruction out?" Obviously, it's not, but everyone, I think, should have an answer to why that was not AGI, because it looks very smart.

My answer to that ended up only being used for copywriting: Jasper AI, Copy.ai, writing what is now called slop on webpages. We were worried we had made the internet a worse place, right?

I went back to the drawing board and I was like, "What's missing? We are smart, clearly. Something is missing from it, like creating value. What is it?" I was doing more philosophy at the time: What is going on?

The question I asked myself was, let's work backwards from an AI-based economic revolution. When that happens, what will we be calling the AI if AI is an API? Will it be humans, or will it be code? And I figured it was many nines of code.

But all the optimization was going into the humans part. Then it clicked for me: "Holy shit, this is the North Star." I think I wrote a document. I was talking to Sam about this. Sam was like, "This is so fucking good. You should go work on it." And we're like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, Sam, I have a job." I was working on—

swyx

Sam just told you to do it. Go do it.

Diogo Almeida

But my guess at the time was that this was super obvious. It's so unbelievably obvious. Anthropic must be working on this already. We're already cooked. And actually, OpenAI does better at catching up than it does at innovating.

So ChatGPT was a copy of Claude, right? They had an internal thing. They just—

swyx

Yes.

Diogo Almeida

Didn't ship it.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Claude—

swyx

Claude in Slack. But reasoning, I would say, first-ish.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, but—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

It's debatable how good of a product that is.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Great research, though. Super-great research. I'm just not sure if people had that product need.

And Claude did the coding agent stuff too. So Sam says that, and I just go back to my job for a while. Eventually, the instruction-following team just says, “We won. We’ve solved instruction following. We don’t need to do stuff anymore.” I’m trying to think about what I do next. I was like, “You know, maybe I’ll just start playing around with this.” I do more philosophy and design and thinking.

I thought it would end up taking a week when I started training models. It ended up taking many years. At some point, I was like, “Holy shit, there are signs of life here. This obviously didn’t work, right? Otherwise, we would have deployed it.” But I want to explore what it would be like, research-wise, to go all in on this. I want to really see what it would be like if you went absolutely insanely all in on this direction.

And because of what I said, if an AI winter happened, how would I feel? I would consider myself personally responsible. I talked to other companies at the time, and I was like, “Hey, I want to start a lab in this direction.” I talked to them: “How fast—what would be faster, this or a startup?” And they’re like, “Startup.” And I’m like, “Fuck it, man. We ball.”

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

“I guess we’re doing some crazy shit.”

swyx

And you called Eric and Sasha—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah. Well—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

—I called Eric first. With Sasha, I actually didn’t try to recruit her. I tried to be good, and I was just like—

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

—“Hey, am I crazy? Is something missing here? Isn’t there a solution to this? Am I too much in the OpenAI bubble that I didn’t realize there must be a solution to this?”

And then Sasha was like, “I’m in.” And I’m like, “Sasha, you’re working at a startup.” And she’s like, “I’m folding it right now.” And I’m like, “Do you want to think about that?” She’s like, “Oh yeah, good point. Let me think about it.” And then she joined.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

And then, within 2 weeks, we had funding. We had people move into my apartment. It was the worst because I’m a neat freak. We just kept cooking, and eventually we got the research that showed the signs of life.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

It was a crazy time.

swyx

So the question is, that was all long context.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, yeah.

swyx

And then now the question is, someone like you is in the frontier lab right now, frustrated about not getting the funding or the resources or the attention. What’s your advice to them? Should they do what you did?

Diogo Almeida

Should they do it? Ooh, that’s a fascinating question. Ooh, man, how do I do this without burning bridges?

My sense is that most—unless there’s some level of economics I don’t really understand—I think most neo-labs are crap. I don’t want to see myself with them as peers. I don’t really understand what’s going on there. Number 1, I don’t really value researchers. I value people who look at The Bitter Lesson, right?

swyx

The data, the task.

Diogo Almeida

I want—well, not just that.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We need researchers, but we need them to give a lot of fucks about the right task, and that’s the important thing, right? So it’s actually kind of backwards when people value pure research pedigree, because that generally doesn’t create value.

Number 1, I believe in North Star tasks and doing cool, really useful stuff. Number 2, because I don’t value researchers, I don’t—

Well, it clearly is profitable for someone, or it might be in this environment. From a purely pragmatic perspective, I don’t see creating neo-labs as something that creates value. It seems to destroy value because they are redoing work from scratch with a low probability of actually moving the frontier.

As far as I've talked to most neo-labs, they don’t really have a direction. They tend to want money to play around with their experiments. If they have a direction, I’m super in favor of it, to be clear.

So my advice for someone is that it really depends on why you’re doing it. If you are a researcher who wants to play around with research, probably the labs are the best place to do that, TBH. There might be other places. I don’t really keep track of the politics. But I would just recommend not being that way personally.

I think it’s better for the world if people are driven to solve real problems. Those problems may be exploratory, and that’s fine, but ideally have principles that you stand behind. But if you think that you want to do the right task, absolutely fucking do it. Please do. Please break this unimind, you know, unimodal—

swyx

Hive mind. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, exactly. Again, this pacing the frontier is coming from this one view of AI that looks like an AI supergenius that is incredibly jagged, and that is—

swyx

Solvable.

Diogo Almeida

—it’s solvable, and it’s weird, and it’s not matching reality. It’s tragic, right? I think all of this—really unearthing technology—is just good.

swyx

Yeah. For what it’s worth, I’m trying to accurately represent the position of the Anthropic and OpenAI folks I was talking to, and SpaceX as well, by the way. It is a political thing much more than a pure x-risk thing.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

So, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, sure.

swyx

Political positioning is—

Diogo Almeida

And that’s beyond my pay grade.

swyx

Exactly, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

That’s well beyond my pay grade.

swyx

Once they told me that, I was like, “I get it. This is about the 2028 election.”

Diogo Almeida

Oh, no. I wish I didn’t hear that. That’s such a bad vibe. And so—

swyx

No, no, no, this is not the whole company. This is just that room’s discussion.

Diogo Almeida

No, no, no, that makes sense.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

That makes me lose faith in humanity a bit, but maybe I’m just a naive technologist.

swyx

It’s really starting to matter who’s in charge of the governments that will help regulate these things as they emerge, and, as a lab—

Diogo Almeida

I totally—

swyx

—you should probably think that through.

Diogo Almeida

No. I totally agree with that, to be clear. I think being opinionated on that matters a lot. I personally am afraid of trying to mislead people because I think that bites people in the ass a lot.

I’m not actually going to talk about politics. I think what happened during COVID is that people leaned too much into appeals to authority and being overconfident to try to get people to behave in certain ways, and obviously our response was extremely suboptimal. That had ripples of downstream ramifications that are now, I think, extremely bad for the world.

Maybe I’m naive. I think misleading people, even for the greater good or what they think is the greater good, is just—I’m not a fan.

swyx

Yeah. I—

Diogo Almeida

I would rather not engage.

swyx

For what it’s worth, I—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

—I don’t think it’s misleading. It’s just, like, this is why now. Like Dario said in May, “How come we’re doing it now?”

Diogo Almeida

I think if that is why now—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

—that is a little bit misleading about the risks versus the objective. There is some level of sneakiness latent in it that is worth calling out and, I think, owning up to. Well, obviously, if they want to manipulate, then they shouldn’t own up to that. That seems like a bad strategy.

swyx

No.

Diogo Almeida

But that, to me, is just sad for the world.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Hopefully, we are never involved in anything like that. It might be inevitable as we get big. But I want to stay a pure technologist, true to my roots, as much as I can.

swyx

I mean, Jeff for president, why not? I would trust Jeff’s decisions over my own. Okay, so less shitposting, more about—

Diogo Almeida

That’s shitposting.

swyx

More—no, no, no, no.

Diogo Almeida

You’re just cr—

swyx

For me, I’m shitposting.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, okay, you’re just crushing my hopes about—

swyx

No, no, no, I’m not calling you shitposting.

Diogo Almeida

—like America and the world right now. Oh, my Lord.

swyx

Yeah.

I think I watch too much TV about conspiracies to think about the presidency.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, no.

swyx

You have chosen your North Star. You have chosen reliability, and then programmable and composable AI.

Diogo Almeida

And cheap.

swyx

And cheap.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

What is a second or third one that you want to throw as a bone to someone else—something that you want someone else to work on, that you're not going to work on?

Diogo Almeida

Ooh.

swyx

Basically, give people tasks.

Diogo Almeida

Give people tasks?

swyx

Yeah, like, your tasks—

Diogo Almeida

There are so many I want. Oh, what?

swyx

You have picked your tasks, right? You know what I mean?

Diogo Almeida

Wait, that's such a good question. Holy crap. Oh man, I'm so excited by that.

swyx

Because, for the next 50 years, you're going to be busy doing your thing.

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah. Okay, so let me give you a fun one and maybe a valuable one that's also fun. My fun one is that I think games could be so freaking cool if they were intelligent. When I see people play around with Ali's Doom demo, where you can get NPCs to control stuff, that was just really a proof of concept. I think some really cool stuff could be made. It looks really, really cool.

I'm a big Stardew Valley fan, and it's really static, but it's still compelling. I feel like there are a lot of cool stories that could happen. You don't need to call Jev in the game loop; it's probably too expensive for that. But even simple state machines for NPCs could make such a compelling world. Oh man.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

And man, I'm a little sad that I can't work on these types of things.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

My life path is a little bit set right now.

swyx

Yeah, but you can call someone else to work on it.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah, that's cool.

swyx

And then you can—

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Get feedback on it.

10. Beyond The KV Cache

Diogo Almeida

The thing that I would really, really like to explore is coding agents free from the tyranny of the KV cache. It might not be as good as true coding agents are, but I think there are so many weird things to think about. That's why I wrote the article “KV Cache Rules Everything Around Me.”

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Believe it or not, I don't think anyone had used the phrase “cache rules everything around me”—C-A-C-H-E—on the internet when I Googled it.

swyx

Okay.

Diogo Almeida

I wrote this because I wanted to tell people how coding agents work and how the KV cache works.

swyx

Right.

Diogo Almeida

It explains a lot of things, like why routing is really hard, why sub-agents don't seem to work, and why compaction is such a hard problem. I'm going to try to release a document. My team might veto me because, believe it or not, I'm not in charge. I wish I were. But I want to release a document of my thoughts: please play with it, and please figure out all the ways that we can do things with coding agents once you're freed from that KV-cache tyranny.

swyx

It locks you in, and—

Diogo Almeida

Well, no, it locks you into one model, right? And in order to do it efficiently, you need to keep appending to it.

swyx

Mm-hmm.

Diogo Almeida

So now you're not doing best software practices like state management, abstraction, and decomposition. Why can't you give an easier task to a sub-agent? Because of the state that you're passing around. I touched this. You would need intelligence that is way cheaper than the intelligence you're using to read this in order to pass this state around. Why can't you be smart about it, right?

I think there's tons of really cool, fun research to be had there on different programming patterns. It's kind of like how people are playing around with recursive language models. I feel like there's lots of cool stuff in here when you think about, “I want to explicitly label the state of everything.”

Or imagine you have a subtask. Coding agents, I think it's fair to say, work on subtasks one at a time from a decomposition perspective. Why do you need to pass all of that state back into the parent task?

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Why couldn't you do smart things about it? Also, if you had a hierarchy of labeled subtasks, why can't you search through that subtask tree for the relevant context when you need it?

Another thing that you can do—oh man, I forgot to write something about this. I have, like, some cooks in here that are really, really cool. I hope to publish it. I'm down to jam about it, but it's going to be a long document.

If it becomes the case that context becomes cheap, why can't you do cool patterns like looking at your historical context very cheaply? Isn't it kind of weird that you start from scratch every time and need to solve a problem called continuous learning? That's actually a memory-management problem, because you don't have a smart way of looking up the memory, right? But what if you could? What if you could do that all the time?

Or what if, when you have parallel sub-agents, they can read each other's states because you have all of that in your computer memory? You can be smart about what's reading and writing at the same time, and your coding-agent swarm or whatever has locks around things and can coordinate intelligently—not with basic-ass locks. Like, “What are you doing? What am I doing? You know, Jev, who should write first?” I feel like the future there is—

swyx

Oh my God.

Diogo Almeida

Nuts.

swyx

Devin to solve locks.

Diogo Almeida

I mean, it could be so cool for multiple agents working together. Or, if you think about state—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

When you have—

swyx

Agent swarm stuff.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Some things, for example, are read-only processes. Some people like getting summaries of what the agents are doing.

swyx

Mm-hmm. Yeah, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Why can't they share state easily? A read-only agent needs to read parts of the context and figure out what's relevant to say—what's actually being written, whether exploration is not super important, or whether it's the tree of subtasks. I feel like there are so many different fun things that could be done if a really smart person dedicated a whole lot of time to rethinking the coding-agent experience. That would be super-duper sick.

swyx

Yeah—

Diogo Almeida

Man, that would be my dream.

swyx

I would point you toward Prime Agent if you haven't looked at it. This works together with the RLM work. We just talked to Alex, who's a buddy of Ellen's, in the chair before you.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, cool.

swyx

It is being worked on, but it's not super popular yet.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

Well, yeah, but the hope—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I would want everyone to just play around with weird things. I have no guarantees it'll work, but it seems really, really interesting from a technical perspective. So, yeah, that seems cool.

swyx

That seems cool.

Diogo Almeida

Once we figure out how to give credits out, I would love to give credits out to people like this.

swyx

You'll be in a position to fund research, for sure.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

No, anyway, congrats on all your success. You've come such a long way since I first met you, and the whole team as well.

Diogo Almeida

I'd like to think I'm the same person as well.

swyx

Yeah. I think you are energized in a way that I've never seen you before because you found your mission.

Diogo Almeida

You know? That's true. That's definitely true.

swyx

You are articulating your mission because, for many years, you complained about the problems, but you didn't have a solution yet, right? You had the rough shape, and then you had to put in the work.

Diogo Almeida

I will say that that is partially because I describe myself as 0% entrepreneurial. I don't like startups. I never wanted to be a CEO in my life. I can't imagine anyone doing this twice. It seems horrible. Honestly, doing it once is pretty bad.

When we were first fundraising, an investor asked me, “Which CEOs do you look up to?” And I was like, “Ew, why would I look up to those people?” No offense to anyone. I'm trying to be genuine. I've met a lot of really good people, but the famous ones seem to have a lot of skeletons in their closets. And I think I just really did feel disempowered when I was at OpenAI. I felt…

Yeah, it’s a little bit easier to be truthful now because I have at least some proof that the direction has legs. I just felt like I was in the insane house where everyone was just like, “ChatGPT, yeah. Where do we put ChatGPT in everything? How do we make ChatGPT good for developers and stuff?” And I’m like, “What? What are you talking about? The function-calling interface is insane. Why would you deploy this?” This is just so anti-developer.

swyx

It’s sort of a hacky way on top of hacks on top of hacks.

Diogo Almeida

Well—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Not just that. The thing I often said was—this is also probably tea I don’t have time for right now—but I always used to say, “I want to be removed from any project involving function calling if you did not get a legit logit bias for each function.” It’s a very—

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Very simple ask on my part because—

swyx

Which is something like a confidence, but not calibrated—

Diogo Almeida

—or a probability for it, right?

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

We need to give users the ability to control whether to take actions, refuse, or allow—

swyx

Oh, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

—Disney needs to set a different refusal threshold than AI Dungeon. The only way to control that with function calling right now is to say, “Pretty please.” That’s nuts. That’s a nuts interface for developers, and people have been dealing with this for years now, right? They still have it with skills. The existing coding agents are highly overfit to their existing harness because they’re jagged. They don’t tend to use external tools and MCPs super well because of overfitting, of course. And why can’t big companies allow for slight nudges to be like, “Call this more. It’s really useful,” right? The solution is begging in a system message. That’s nuts.

swyx

Oh, yeah. But, okay, I think I get you. And, man, it is so exciting to talk about all this stuff.

Diogo Almeida

Thank you.

swyx

It’s really cool to get you on a podcast. You’re going to go do amazing things, man. I’m excited for your next big launches, whatever that is.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, hell yeah.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Just you wait.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Just you wait. It might be sooner—

swyx

So, hiring data people—

Diogo Almeida

—than you think.

swyx

—infra people, I assume. Marketer.

Diogo Almeida

100 feet. Depends on who you ask.

swyx

Community person.

Diogo Almeida

If you ask me—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

—I feel like I’m a pretty good founding marketer, but if you ask anyone on my team, they say, “Shut the fuck up, Yogo. You need to do CEO stuff.” So, yes, founding marketer—

swyx

It is not just about spice. I think you’re very spice-oriented, which, like, that’s—

Diogo Almeida

Mm-hmm.

swyx

—your unique talent. But sometimes you just need to say, like—

Diogo Almeida

I know, I know.

swyx

Yeah, yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I would really love—

swyx

The routine marketing things. Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Yes. Nothing teaches you delegation like having a tidal wave of stuff to do. Hiring data people, or we call them model capabilities, like—

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

—but they are data people, because data is kind of a slur in the industry, and I want to make sure that—

swyx

I don’t think so. We are very pro-data here.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

We—

Diogo Almeida

But I want them to have the highest status—the people actually working on the model. I want everyone to have equal status, but I want to even that out, and I want to know that that’s really valuable.

swyx

These are more equal than others.

Diogo Almeida

Well, I mean, I don’t like weird hierarchies, and I think one of the things I’m most proud about in the company is that they don’t respect me that much, or they don’t show that. They troll me and joke with me, and they treat me poorly sometimes and all of that, and I think that that’s a good sign of a culture. We’re hiring platform people—people to build out Jev everywhere. We’re so much more sensitive to location because speed of light is more of a bottleneck.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Right? I’m so sad for the European users that they were only 3 times as fast instead of 100 times as fast because we don’t have servers there right now, and that’s insane, right? But, like—

swyx

It’s okay. Life in Europe goes a bit slower as well. It’s okay.

Diogo Almeida

Wow. I can’t believe you said it, not me. Or everywhere.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

You know, if intelligence per second is a metric that matters, we’ll launch this all over the place. If you’re a developer building on top of us, I care a lot about you. We’re hiring people to keep building more—not just—the goal is not to just be Jev as a company. The goal is to ship more shapes of intelligence beyond that.

We’re hiring people to build those things too. We want to not just be the one-trick pony of the simple model. But I think that there’s going to be an AWS of intelligence, you know? And—

swyx

Which is going to be you, by the way, right? Yes.

Diogo Almeida

I mean, that’s a direction I want to go down.

swyx

Yes. Okay.

Diogo Almeida

It would be arrogant to say it will be me.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I’m going to do anything I can to make sure that happens.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

I think that that’s going to be so, so cool. We’re playing with System 1 intelligence right now. Imagine the layers, you know? This is the TCP of it.

swyx

Mm.

Diogo Almeida

Yeah.

swyx

Yeah. Several more layers to go.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

And who knows what else? I’ve also pitched temporal, by the way. I don’t know. We need to talk about temporal as layer 8—

Diogo Almeida

Ooh.

swyx

—out of the 7 layers.

Diogo Almeida

Ooh.

swyx

But anyway, we can talk forever.

Diogo Almeida

Hell yeah.

swyx

You’ve got to get back to work or sleep.

Diogo Almeida

Yep.

swyx

Thank you for coming.

Diogo Almeida

Oh, boy. Yeah.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

Cool. You’re most welcome. It was a pleasure, man.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

So excited.

swyx

Yeah.

Diogo Almeida

So excited.

swyx

Not the last time.

Diogo Almeida

My first time.

swyx

Not the last time.