[BidClub_]
No Priors · · 31 分钟

No Priors 第112期|Isa Fulford 谈 OpenAI Deep Research

Sarah GuoIsa Fulford

YouTube
TL;DR
  • Deep Research 最初的有意押注,是把只读式综合而非交易型演示作为高杠杆的首个智能体方向。 OpenAI 于2月发布了它,并正向所有美国用户免费开放。当其他智能体构想聚焦于订购汉堡或鲜花时,Isa Fulford 的团队瞄准了文献综述、产品发现,以及横跨多个来源的其他知识工作。其战略前提很直接:「如果你连文献综述都写不了,就不可能写出新的科学论文」("If you can’t write a literature review, you’re not going to be able to write a new scientific paper");而只读式操作也让最初的安全问题更受约束。

  • 它的路径不只是浏览,而是围绕开放式、有用工作构建的强化学习。 由于浏览缺乏类似数学题那样的 ground-truth 数据集,团队先明确产品希望达成的结果,招募多个领域的专家,生成合成数据并建立 graders;随后将能够打开 PDF 和嵌入图片的文本浏览器,与用于计算和绘图的 Python 配对。模型有时会在没有明确指令的情况下学会规划或使用出人意料的搜索方式,但也可能尝试绕过限制,既体现了泛化能力,也暴露出控制风险。

  • Fulford 判断是否做 RFT,看的是真实的经济价值:只有当工作流确实属于分布外任务,或再提升10–15%就会决定成败时,训练才值得。 基因测序这类专业任务,在反复提示仍然失败后,可能值得做强化微调;对业务至关重要、边际准确率会实质改变结果的工作流也一样。但如果每个新基础模型都已经在持续降低错误率,「这可能就不值得投入这番功夫」。

  • 答案越全面,越容易获得信任,也因此形成信任悖论,使引用质量成为验证关键。 Fulford 称,Deep Research 的幻觉比 OpenAI 此前发布的任何模型都少,但它仍可能从来源中错误推断某件事;用户也可能正因为它花了更长时间、返回了更多细节而更加信任它。引用让用户能够核查这条推理链;未来能够采取行动的智能体会进一步抬高风险,因为「发出一封令人尴尬的邮件」并不算完成任务。

  • 产品路线图指向一个同时覆盖私有检索、编程、研究和外部行动的单一智能体。 Fulford 理想中的系统是「凡是你会委托给同事的事情,它都应该能做」,包括搜索内部文档或 GitHub、调用 API、准备 PR,以及协助预订旅行。人的工作会沿着更高的抽象层级上移:从请求一个函数,到一个文件,再到一个 PR;与此同时,用户仍可以审查、打断或接管。

  • Deep Research 最适合精确、约束密集的问题,尤其是需要实时信息和全面检索的场景。 Guo 举例说,可以用它寻找本季特定的一件外套、难找的 RealReal 商品,或满足大量条件的 Airbnb;对于高层次探索,普通搜索或通用模型更合适。它目前「每次都用最长思考时间」可能过度消耗资源,Fulford 认为最终应由模型而非面向用户的 effort 开关来决定一项任务值得花多长时间。

  • 长时运行智能体的机会很大,但记忆、上下文管理和安全是关键约束。 Deep Research 目前大约用5–30分钟完成专家认为需要数小时的工作;Fulford 想象它用1小时处理人类数天的工作、用1天处理数周的工作,甚至可能承担类似论文的项目,同时明确承认这会带来规模化挑战。持久记忆将非常重要,这样研究才能不断积累,而不是每次从头开始,尤其是在智能体开始持有私有数据、代码仓库和密码之后。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 只读式综合是有意选择的首个切入口

  • Fulford 将项目的起点追溯到大约一年前强化学习在数学、科学和编程上的进展。她和 Yash 当时分别在探索智能体,并思考同一套算法能否处理日常浏览和软件工程工作;Fulford 专注于浏览。OpenAI 于2月发布了 Deep Research,并正向所有美国用户免费开放。

  • Sarah Guo 的反驳值得保留:大多数浏览智能体的构想,最后都会收敛到订购 DoorDash 或鲜花这类交易型演示。Fulford 的回答是,应该从更具野心、适用范围更广的问题开始——把多个来源综合成一份有用的报告,因为「大量知识工作职业,本质上主要就是在做这件事」。

  • 数学和编程已有现成的 ground-truth 数据集,浏览则是开放式的。因此,团队围绕希望产品达成的结果来组织研究,例如根据 Reddit 评论给产品排名,或撰写文献综述。

  • 科学上的理由构成了这项工作的北极星:新的发现要求掌握已有研究,因此具备撰写文献综述的能力,是产出新研究的前提。只读任务同时也是一种务实的安全选择,相比赋予智能体交易能力,这是一个约束更多的起点。

2. 产品始于演示,随后逼出了全新的训练栈

  • 最初的内部产物完全由提示词驱动的模型和一个用于传达产品愿景的界面组成,「没有涉及任何模型训练」。要把这个演示转化为 Deep Research,团队需要新的数据、graders、浏览工具,并与 OpenAI 的 RL 团队反复协作;几个月没有立即上线的压力,让团队可以专注于「让 eval 指标持续上升」。

  • 一项持续性的评测要求找出 Liam Fedus 和 Barrett Zoph 合著的全部论文;Fulford 原以为有11篇,而模型现在已经能找到其中大多数甚至全部。另一项任务是查一位同事的中间名,模型如今无法回答,「可能是出于充分的理由」。内部需求很早就出现:Sam 曾用一个更弱的版本买东西,而每次系统宕机,同事都会发消息问:「发生什么了?我们需要用这个模型。」

  • 部分数据由人工训练员提供,团队同时寻求覆盖多个职业,并构建合成数据集。按 Fulford 的说法,RL 的优势在于,专家不必规定完整的研究流程:他们只需定义任务和期望结果,「模型会在训练过程中自行学会如何从问题走到一个好的答案」。

  • 如今的工具包括可以检查嵌入图片和 PDF 的文本浏览器,以及用于分析、计算和绘图的 Python。每次未来扩展工具,都会带来新的数据问题:训练必须覆盖工具选择、回溯和灵活恢复,而不只是把一个 API 暴露给模型。

  • 模型并没有被预先教会规划,但它有时会在开始研究前自行规划;它也会使用 Fulford 不会选择的搜索词,并可能尝试绕过限制。因此,团队必须留意黑客行为,或尝试使用未经批准的搜索引擎。

3. 强化微调只有在性能边际上才值得其成本

  • Fulford 给初创公司的实际判断标准是:如果大量提示仍然失败,原因是任务与可能见过的训练数据不同,那么就值得考虑。她以专业的基因测序任务为例,认为这类任务足够分布外,值得做强化微调。

  • 第二种情况与技术无关,而是财务问题:如果核心工作流「额外10–15%的性能真的决定成败」,就应该为此训练。当一个已经足够强的模型会随每次发布自然变好时,定制 RFT 可能刚好在基础模型追上来之前消耗大量精力。

  • 她还指出,训练能力可以泛化:一个主要用数学、编程及相关问题训练的推理模型,可能会变得擅长写作,尽管如果专门用写作训练,它在这项任务上的表现会更好。

4. 更强的智能体让能力与安全成为同一个问题

  • Deep Research 篇幅很长、内容全面的报告,可能让用户产生更强的信任。尽管 Fulford 称它的幻觉比 OpenAI 此前发布的任何模型都少,但它仍会从来源中得出错误推断;因此,引用是必要的审计轨迹,而不是装饰性的来源标注。

  • Deep Research 目前无法执行典型智能体安全问题所涉及的行动,但统一智能体必须同时具备研究和执行能力。Fulford 的标准是结果导向的:如果智能体完成了名义上的任务,却发出一封令人尴尬的邮件,那么意外副作用意味着它并没有成功完成任务。

  • Guo 问,安全究竟应依赖明确的护栏,还是依赖学习出来的行为。Fulford 倾向于最初采用确认机制,类似 Operator 对每一次写入操作都要求确认;随着反复成功建立信任,再逐步授予权限。即使这些机制不是最终能力形态,她仍预计智能体上线时需要护栏、确认和有意义的监督。

5. 精确约束揭示了 Deep Research 击败普通搜索的地方

  • 专家已经在 Fulford 无法亲自判断的领域验证了输出,包括医学研究。出人意料的使用场景包括代码搜索、寻找仓库中最新的包或最新版本以协助编写文件,以及把上传的文件与数值分析结合起来;她认为,这种广度部分来自 o3 所继承的强大编程、数学和推理能力,再叠加浏览能力。

  • 她的分流原则是问题是否具体。需要当前在线证据和全面答案的明确问题,适合 Deep Research;一般性的主题了解,则交给普通搜索或常规模型。即便某些事实可能已经存在于模型权重中,实时检索仍然有价值。

  • Guo 把时尚例子说得很具体:给定偏好的品牌、特定的仿皮草大衣长度,以及本季是否有货,Deep Research 可以满足完整的约束集合。她同样会用它寻找难以找到的 RealReal 商品,或满足精确要求的 Airbnb——这些查询「我可能要花几小时才能找到」;她还说,o1 的浏览没有这么全面。

  • Guo 希望有一个5分钟的 effort 开关,但 Fulford 认为「让用户自己决定似乎是糟糕的 UX」。Deep Research 是有意按「每次都用最长思考时间」训练的,而 o3 或 o-next 可能提供更合适的中间选项;Fulford 说,后续版本应该能填补这段空档。

6. 终局形态像一个持续在线的远程同事

  • 随着任务从目前的5–30分钟扩展到数小时或数天,记忆会变得非常重要。每次任务都重复输入偏好和背景已经令人厌烦;未来的研究应该能够不断积累、保留状态,并高效管理有限的上下文,而不是「每次都从头开始」。

  • Fulford 认为,基础模型预训练和 RL 会相互叠加:RL 使用规模更小但质量更高的数据,但整理任务、结果和等同于人类使用的工具,仍然是大量工作。各团队会向大型 RL 运行贡献数据集,而由此获得的算力又会改善基础模型,Fulford 的团队再以这些模型为基础继续训练。关键阻碍包括安全访问代码仓库、密码和私有数据,管理长时间运行的上下文,以及持续投入精力构建工具和可评测数据集。

  • Guo 形容第一次训练成功时的直觉冲击是:「这条路上铺满了草莓。」但能力仍然参差不齐:模型可以执行出令人惊讶的聪明步骤,随后又犯下一个让人忍不住问「你为什么要这么做?停下」的错误。

  • Fulford 希望在1年内拥有一个既能准备 coding PR、又能协助预订韩国旅行的智能体。界面会把委托与干预结合起来:它像 Slack 上的远程同事,同时允许用户在 VS Code 或 Cursor 中打断;这样也能减轻用户判断每项任务该交给哪个专用智能体的负担。

Sarah Guo

Hi, listeners, and welcome back to No Priors. Today I'm joined by Isa Fulford, one of the pioneering minds behind OpenAI's Deep Research. This is a new agentic product that OpenAI released in February of this year, which uses reasoning and tools like web browsing to complete multi-step research tasks for you. Today, they're making it free to all U.S. users.

Welcome, Isa. Thank you for doing this.

Isa Fulford

Thank you so much for having me.

Sarah Guo

You and your team have shipped one of the most exciting AI products lately. I use Deep Research a lot. Where did the idea come from? Tell me the origin story.

Isa Fulford

Around a year ago, we were very excited about the progress internally on this new reinforcement learning algorithm. We were seeing a lot of progress on math problems, science problems, and coding problems. At the same time, I was working with my friend Yash, who works at OpenAI, on a few side projects. We were very interested in agents generally and wondered if we could apply the same algorithms to tasks that were more in line with what the average user would do every day.

The first 2 things we were thinking about were online browsing tasks, because I think in a lot of different professions, people have to do a lot of research, synthesize a lot of information, and then come back with a report. We were also thinking about software engineering. We've been working on those things, and I've been focusing on browsing.

To start, with the math and coding problems that people were already training on, those data sets already exist. You can have a math problem with a ground-truth answer and train on those. But for browsing, it's more open-ended. You don't really have data sets like that.

We really started by grounding the research in the product use cases we actually wanted the final model to be good at. We would literally write out a list of things, like, “I hope the model could find this list of products for me and rank them by these reviews from Reddit,” or, “I wanted to be able to write a literature review on this topic.”

Sarah Guo

I feel like a lot of people, when they think about browsing and agents, land on the same 2 or 3 transactional use cases that I don't think are particularly inspiring. It tends to be, “Order a burger on DoorDash,” or something like that. I think ordering flowers is also a really common one. Why do you think you came up with such a different set of goals for the agent?

Isa Fulford

I think, before focusing on taking the right actions—which those are examples of—we wanted to get really good at synthesizing information from a large number of sources, mostly through read-only tasks. That was for a number of reasons. First, a huge number of knowledge-work professions mostly do that, so it would be quite useful for those groups of people.

Secondly, I think the overall goal for OpenAI is to create an AGI that can make new scientific discoveries. We felt that a prerequisite to that is being able to synthesize information. If you can't write a literature review, you're not going to be able to write a new scientific paper. It felt very much in line with the company's broader goals.

More practically, the safety question for a read-only task is a bit more constrained, so it was a good thing to start with as well.

Sarah Guo

It's also very meta, because you have helped make an AI that makes me better at learning, and it's learning.

Isa Fulford

Yeah. I hadn't thought of that. I love that.

Sarah Guo

It seems that, in the read-only space, people were also not nearly as ambitious as you—or you and Yash—were in thinking about what it might be able to understand for me.

You thought of these end-to-end evals and came up with a set of tasks that could be autogradable or fit a set of characteristics that made them a better fit for the algorithms. And then what?

Isa Fulford

That was actually a huge process in itself. Initially, we'd built a demo to pitch people on this idea, and it involved no model training. It was fully just prompted models with the UI, pitching the vision of what this product could look like.

After that, we were at the point where we had to start thinking about how we were going to do this, how we were going to create the data, how we were going to train the model, and what tools we needed to create to enable the model to browse the internet effectively. That was a lot of iteration.

I was working very closely with Edward Sun and a few other people on this, and we also collaborated a lot with the RL team. It was definitely a big undertaking. A good thing about it was that we were able to work uninterrupted for quite a few months, making the numbers on our evals go up.

It was nice not to have too much pressure to ship something really quickly. We were just able to iterate and get it to a good state.

Sarah Guo

Did you have a favorite, or most important, task?

Isa Fulford

We had a few tasks. People would just propose different tasks. One of them was to find all of the papers that Liam Fedus and Barrett Zoph had written together. I think there were 11. The model now can find most or all of them. We would always ask that question.

Another one, which the model actually can't answer anymore—probably for good reason—was finding the middle name of one of our coworkers.

Personally, I think I started using it pretty early on for finding information for product recommendations and travel. Quite a few people internally had found a Streamlit playground that people would just use. A lot of people had found it and were using it.

Sam told me he used it to buy a bunch of things. Every time it would go down, people would message us: “What happened? We need to use the model,” even when a previous version honestly wasn't that good. I think that was a good initial sign.

Sarah Guo

What can you say about the actual bulk of the work—the tool creation and the data creation?

Isa Fulford

For the data, we did a bunch of different things. We used human trainers for some of it. We had to come up with new ways and new kinds of data sets, I guess, and figure out how to design data sets to exercise the kinds of skills we wanted the model to learn.

Then you have to make a way to grade those data sets as you're training them. You also have to make good tools for the model to actually complete the task successfully.

Right now, we just have the browsing tool, which is a text-based browser, but it can see embedded images and open PDFs. It also has access to a Python tool, so it can do analysis and calculations and plot graphs.

You can imagine that, in future versions, we'll expand the tool set, and the model will become more capable. But we'll also need to make data sets that actually make the model exercise all of those different tools and figure out how to use them, backtrack, and do all these different things during training.

That way, it's actually able to flexibly answer new problems from users in the product.

Sarah Guo

It's clear that reinforcement fine-tuning on very powerful base models can do very useful things. That's super exciting. What advice would you have for startups or other companies that are thinking about doing RFT for a particular task, in terms of when it's worth doing or when they can just try traditional orchestration, where agents are a component?

Isa Fulford

In general, you will always get a model that's better at a specific task if you train on that task. But we also see a lot of generalization from training on one kind of task to other domains.

You can train a reasoning model on mostly math, coding, and other reasoning problems, and it will be good at writing. But if you trained it on that specific task, it would be better at it.

If you have a very specific task that you think is so different from anything the model was likely trained on, and you've tried it a bunch of times yourself, tried a lot of different prompts, and it's just really not good at it, then maybe it's some genetic-sequencing task or something that's so out of distribution for the model that it doesn't know how to figure it out. I think that's a good time to try reinforcement fine-tuning.

Or, if you have a task that's so critical to your business workflow that getting an extra 10–15% performance is really make-or-break, then you should probably try it.

But if it's something where you think, “The model's pretty good at this, but it gets things wrong some percentage of the time,” and then you see that with every next model that's released, it gets a little bit better, it might not be worth the effort if the model is naturally just going to get better at those things. That would be my recommendation.

Sarah Guo

Great advice. You've talked about needing to use human experts to create some of this data. I think of browsing as a somewhat universal task. I guess there are better and worse browsers. Where do you feel like you need expertise, or what do you know about browsing expertise that you didn't before—or information-gathering expertise?

Isa Fulford

I guess it's one of those things where basically every single profession involves having a question or wanting to do research in a domain, and then having to find information from many different sources to synthesize an answer.

While doing that, you have to have the expertise to reason about: Is this a useful source? Is this not? Should I include this? Is this completely off-topic? Whatever.

That is kind of universal to most jobs or most scientific domains. The cool thing with RL is that you don't necessarily need to know the whole process of how the person would do the research. You just have to know what the task is and what the outcome should be, and the model will learn during training how to get from the problem to a good answer.

So I think we just took a pretty broad approach. That's one thing that, if you work at a place like OpenAI, you can do—something they would tell most startups not to do—and just try to focus on a really broad set of users, get experts in loads of different domains, and try to get good at everything at once, which was the approach that we took. Then we also created a lot of synthetic data sets and things like that, but the human data was definitely a really key part for making this model successful.

Sarah Guo

Did any of the learned planning from the model across these domains surprise you, in terms of the path to find the perfect handbag or the restaurant in Japan or the set of papers that was relevant?

Isa Fulford

Sometimes it will use search terms that I wouldn't necessarily have used. We didn't teach it to plan up front, but sometimes we'll see that it does end up making a plan up front before starting its research. Sometimes the model will do smart things and try to get around restrictions you put on it.

You have to make sure that it's not hacking and trying to use a different search engine other than the search engine that you gave it, or something like that. It will do smart things that you have to make sure you're looking out for, in case you don't want to allow the model to do those things.

Sarah Guo

Maybe we can actually use this as a moment to talk about some of the failure modes. How do you think about some of the classic issues with agents, like compounding error or distraction or even safety?

Isa Fulford

With deep research, it can't actually take the kinds of actions involved in the typical agent safety problems you would think of. But I think the fact that the responses are much more comprehensive and take longer means that people will trust them more. So I think maybe hallucinations are a bigger problem.

While this model hallucinates less than any model that we've ever released, it's still possible for it to hallucinate sometimes because it will infer something incorrectly from one of its sources. That's part of the reason we have citations, because it's very important that the user is able to check where the information came from and, if it's not correct, can hopefully figure it out. That's definitely one of the biggest model limitations and something that we're always actively working on to improve.

In terms of future agents, I think the ideal agent will be able to do research and take actions on your behalf. That's a much harder question that we need to address. It's kind of at that point when capabilities and safety converge, where an agent is not useful if you can't trust it to do a task in a way that doesn't have unintended side effects that you don't want.

If you ask it to do a task for you and then, in the process, it sends an embarrassing email or something like this, that's not a successful completion of the task. I think that is going to be a much more interesting and difficult safety area that we're starting to tackle.

Sarah Guo

You can tell me if you just don't have a projection here, but do you think people are going to want explicit guardrails? Do you think you can learn a bunch of those characteristics in the model itself? If you've used Operator, I'm sure you have to confirm every write action.

Isa Fulford

I think to start with, that makes a lot of sense. You want to build trust with users, and as the models become more capable, maybe you've seen them successfully do things a few times and you start to trust them more. So maybe you allow them to do that every time: You don't have to ask me every time you send an email to these people; that's fine.

I do think that as these agents start to roll out, we will definitely want to have guardrails and confirmation. While they're not the end-state capability, we still want to make sure we have a good level of oversight. But I think that they will get so good that we'll just trust them to do things on our behalf.

Sarah Guo

What are some of the obvious ways you feel like deep research as a product is going to get better?

Isa Fulford

It's going to extend into actions, right? You just implied that at some point. I think maybe the ideal state would be to have a unified agent that can do all of these different things. Anything that you would delegate to a coworker, it should be able to do.

Sarah Guo

How are we going to make decisions about whether it's, like, “Sarah, you do this” versus “Agent, please do this”?

Isa Fulford

I guess. Or is it always just, “Try the agent first”? Probably. I would try the agent first if it was my work. It's kind of the pattern that every time the model becomes more capable, the level of abstraction of the human becomes higher, if that makes sense.

The task you're asking it to do is just higher and higher level, but you're still initiating the task. Maybe a year ago I was asking it to write a function for me, and now I'm asking it to write a whole file. Maybe next year it will make a whole PR for me or something like that. I still think we'll be in the driving seat.

Sarah Guo

As to deep research, I think obvious next steps for deep research would also be to have access to private data—to be able to do research over any internal documentation, GitHub, whatever it is.

There's a golden thread here, because when we first met, you were working on retrieval, and I was like, there cannot be only one person at this company working on retrieval. Everything—all roads lead back to retrieval.

Isa Fulford

Mhm. So I think that will be really cool, and then eventually taking the right actions or calling APIs. Obviously, there are just a lot of things that the model is not perfect at now that we need to improve.

I think we have a really cool working relationship with the reinforcement learning team. A lot of teams will contribute data sets to the big runs that they do. We contribute data sets, and then as they train models with a ton of compute, it just becomes a better base model for us to continue training from. I just think the capabilities are compounding.

Sarah Guo

This was not a low-key research preview, but a side project that turned into a very interesting, internally pitched project. How do you think about what is a product that OpenAI—or at least you yourself—want to work on independently versus what belongs in the core research path?

Isa Fulford

A cool thing about OpenAI is that even though the company is bigger, I think the culture of anyone being able to have an idea, prove it out, and then push it to completion has still been maintained as the company has grown.

For me personally, I'm always motivated to work on things that I will use myself. With deep research, for example, I do use it a lot for looking up various things and travel recommendations. I think I'm probably a daily active user.

It's fun when you get to dogfood now.

Sarah Guo

Oh, amazing.

Isa Fulford

Yeah, I'm burning a lot of GPUs.

Sarah Guo

Are there use cases where you're the domain expert? Are there ways that you or Yash have used it, or that you've seen the user base use it, that you encourage people to use deep research for?

Isa Fulford

I'm always interested to see people using it in domains where I have absolutely no expertise. For example, in medical research, I've seen a lot of different scientists posting about how they've used deep research and how it helped them do something.

To me, that's the most interesting, because when we were working on it, I obviously had no way of judging whether an output was good or not. Seeing experts actually ratify deep research responses is useful.

An area where I was surprised to see people using the model was code search and coding questions. For example, using the latest package or latest version of whatever repo to help write a file. Data analysis is also something the model is already pretty good at, and I think we'll just continue to get better at.

Uploading a file and having it do some analysis for you, or do some research and then create a report with numerical analysis, is pretty interesting.

Sarah Guo

I actually haven't tried this. It's not a browsing task. What makes the model particularly good at this, or what is it capable of? Is it really multistep, with the ability to do planning and understand the task and produce a report that's cohesive?

Isa Fulford

I think the base model, or the model that we started fine-tuning from, o3, is just a very capable model. It's trained on many different data sets, including a lot of coding, reasoning, and math tasks. That inherited capability is pretty strong, and then when you add browsing on top of that, it's still able to do that analysis. Those 2 things together can be quite powerful.

Sarah Guo

Before the podcast, we were just talking about the idea of learning taste or preferences from users. OpenAI just released a bunch of memory features. How do you think that deep research—or agents in general—could evolve to take into account how people want to learn or their information-ingestion preferences?

Isa Fulford

Agent memory will definitely be very important. It would be very annoying if every time you ask it to do a task, you have to repeat the same information, how you want it to do the task, everything about you—which currently, for deep research, you do have to do.

And I think as the tasks get more complex—and right now, they take 5 to 30 minutes—you can imagine that in the future, it might take hours or days to complete a task that you ask the model to do. You definitely want the model's research to be compounding. You don't want it to have to start fresh every time. So I don't necessarily have a good answer, but I think it's something that will be very important.

Sarah Guo

There is a common understanding among many people at some of the leading labs that the recipe to AGI is, I'd say, somewhat known, or there's confidence in this, and the return of RL is very exciting for everyone. The stance that I've heard from you and others is one of enthusiasm: This seems to work, we're going to get real capability out of it, and it's quite data-efficient. It's also going to be a lot of work. Tell me a little bit about the emotional experience of building Deep Research and whether that changes your view at all.

Isa Fulford

I agree with everything you said. I think it's so impressive to see how data-efficient the algorithm is. I guess the data you train on is much higher quality and smaller, so actually curating that is an undertaking. Then there's making sure that the model has access to all the tools that a human would have access to in order to do the work they need to do.

Making sure that you represent tasks that people will find useful or do in their jobs in a way that you can judge whether the model did a good job or not is also hard. There are so many other challenges for pre-training, where you have so much more data. You have to do all of these different things, which is, I think, just a different challenge. Both are compounding: You need a really good base model to be able to do RL, and then, for our team, we just do more RL. It's all very compounding, but I think everybody does see a pretty clear path to this broadly capable agent.

Sarah Guo

Do you think there are big blockers to progress? Maybe not exactly describing it as the next iteration of Deep Research, but just confidence that we're going to have these unified agent capabilities and that it will feel like a coworker. What stands between us and that?

Isa Fulford

There are a lot of really hard safety questions that we need to figure out. We would never ship anything that we don't have very high confidence is safe. The stakes are way higher when it has access to your GitHub repositories, your passwords, and your private data. So I think that's a really big challenge.

I guess also, if you want the model to be able to do tasks that take many, many hours, you need to find efficient ways to manage context. It's kind of similar to the memory thing, but if you're doing a task for a really long time, you're going to run out of context. So what's an efficient way of dealing with that, allowing the model to continue to do its thing? Then there's the task of making the data and making the tools. I've said this already a few times, but that's a lot of work.

Sarah Guo

I was just looking at my history of queries. My user request is, "I want to see what things I asked of Deep Research versus other models, in particular, in my memory."

It has ranged from, obviously, if I'm trying to get up to speed on a market for a company I'm looking at, or on a technical topic, to travel planning, which is a big one. I've also looked for things that are taste-related. I'll say, "I like this set of books for these reasons. I want you to give me a long-form summary of a bunch of other things you think I should read and explain why."

I realize I don't have a super-clear mental model of when Deep Research should be better than o3. What instinct can you give me here?

Isa Fulford

Deep Research is very good when you have a very specific or well-defined query. Maybe not a general overview of a topic, but if you're looking for some specific information and you think it would be supplemented by existing research online. Even if we also train the base model on that information, having live access to it is quite useful.

So if I have any instinct about directing it to retrieval or particular sources, that focus is useful, I think. We also trained it to have much longer outputs than normal models would. If you're looking for something very comprehensive—maybe sometimes too comprehensive for some tasks—I think Deep Research will be useful for those things.

Sarah Guo

Connect this for me to a Deep Research fashion task. I've used it to find new brands. I'll say, "These are the kinds of brands I like. Please find new brands where I can find this specific coat that looks like this one," or something like that.

It's very good at finding those, whereas I think the base model or the normal model will give you some brands, but it won't necessarily fit all of the constraints that I had given. I want it to sell this fake-fur coat that's this length, this season, or something like that. It's not going to be able to do that because it just won't have the up-to-date information, and it also won't necessarily be able to deal with all of the constraints in a query in one shot.

o1 isn't browsing as comprehensively. I'll use it to find things when I'm looking for a very specific item that would take me hours to find. I'm looking for a very specific item or sweater that's probably available on The RealReal or somewhere, but I can't find it, or I'm looking for an Airbnb with very specific constraints. So I think those kinds of things are good for Deep Research, and for more general, high-level things, you should use normal search.

Isa Fulford

Yes.

Sarah Guo

Well, I will admit I have had some multi-hour browsing and shopping tasks that I'm now making a cron job for Deep Research.

I suppose I want to ask just one more experience question, which is: Was there a particular win or failure that surprised you in the training of Deep Research?

Isa Fulford

It really was one of those things where we thought that training on browsing tasks would work. It felt like we had good conviction in it, but actually, seeing a model work the first time you train it on a new data set using this algorithm, and playing with the model, was pretty incredible, even though we thought it would work. Honestly, just that it worked so well was pretty surprising, even though we thought it would, if that makes sense.

Sarah Guo

It's the visceral experience of, "Oh, the path is paved with strawberries," or whatever.

Isa Fulford

Exactly. But sometimes, some of the things it fails at are also surprising. Sometimes it will do such smart things and then make a mistake where I'm just thinking, "Why are you doing that? Stop." So there's definitely a lot of room for improvement, but we've been impressed with the model so far.

Sarah Guo

I'm used to all my technology tools being instantaneous. Deep Research is not instantaneous; it's thinking and using tools. Can it be faster?

Isa Fulford

I do think there's a good middle ground in between, where sometimes you don't want it to do really deep research, but you want it to do more than a search. I think we'll release things soon that people will be happy about and that will fill that gap.

Sarah Guo

I don't know how to communicate this preference, but I want to toggle at some point and say—I would say this to a human—"I want you to do as good a job as you possibly can in the next 5 minutes."

Isa Fulford

That's something where I think it seems like bad UX to make the user make that decision. The model should just be better at knowing how much time to think. I think we made a decision when training the model that we were just going to go for maximum thinking time every time. I'm sure I've asked it a really simple query sometimes just to test it, and then gotten quite frustrated that it's still thinking.

I do think that's also an area for improvement: knowing how long to think for. I suspect that with Deep Research, we'll always be focusing on the tasks that take the maximum length of time, and then I think o3 or o-next will have a better in-between.

Sarah Guo

What is an example of a task you can imagine Deep Research taking a day to do in the future?

Isa Fulford

I mean, there's some GPU scaling. Right now, in 5 to 30 minutes, it can do what human experts rate as taking many hours. So I guess in an hour, it could do something that would take a human days. In a day, it could do something that would take a human weeks.

Obviously, there will be a lot of challenges to get it to scale like that, but I think you can imagine it doing a research project that would have taken weeks to complete, or writing a thesis or something like that.

Sarah Guo

I'm going to make our intern compete with it over the next couple of months, then.

Isa Fulford

Yeah, sounds good.

Sarah Guo

If you were to project forward a year, which is a really long time in AI land, what is something that you think will surprise people that agents can do and that will actually be released?

Isa Fulford

Taking the safety considerations into account, I think a general agent could help you do a lot of the tasks that you would do in a lot of different areas. For me, I do a lot of coding. I'm hoping that there will be an agent that's pretty proficient at coding that I will just trust. I'll give it a task, and it will hopefully make a PR or something. But maybe I can ask the same agent to help me book a trip to Korea or something.

I hope that we'll get to a more unified experience, but I also think that the rate at which these models are improving is going to be pretty surprising to most people.

Sarah Guo

Why do you think a unified experience is important, or why do you think that makes sense?

Isa Fulford

I think today it's quite different to think about. Obviously, ChatGPT is one experience that's very encompassing, but there are models that people use in different contexts, like next-line-completion-type models for coding, that just feel like a very different setting. I think that you'll probably want both. You'll probably want an experience where you can, at some point, override or interrupt the model and say, “Oh, no. I didn't mean that,” or take over and start typing something.

Especially in the short term, as the models are not as capable as humans in a lot of areas and are more capable in other areas, I think it will be a combination of you asking the model to do something, but then, maybe to go with the coding example, you're also in your VS Code or whatever it is—your Cursor—and it's been doing something for you, but you can also actually type and write some of it yourself. So I think it will be a combination of those things, but I kind of want it to be something that is just like—it's like having a coworker on Slack or a remote coworker you can just ask to do things for you, send them a Slack message, and then they'll start doing it.

Then you can review their work or help at some point. It seems like a pretty nice general interface, and you don't have to think about which agent you should ask to do which task. It should just be able to figure it out.

Sarah Guo

The mental model I have for this is that my general ethos is actually that I love the people I work with. I prefer to work with fewer people with less management overhead, all things considered, because each person has more context and I have more understanding of them. So the universally useful agent is attractive for that reason. You only have to tell it something once, and it will remember, and then it will have state on everything you're working on—things like that.

Awesome. Well, this has been a great conversation, Isa. Thanks for doing this, and thank you for the product release.

Isa Fulford

Thank you so much for having me, and thank you for using Deep Research.

No Priors 第112期|Isa Fulford 谈 OpenAI Deep Research — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub