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Machine Learning Street Talk · · 73 分钟

Transformer 的共同发明者,如今转向 Continuous Thought Machines [Llion Jones / Luke Darlow]

Llion JonesLuke Darlow

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TL;DR
  • Llion Jones 认为,Transformer 已陷入“过度饱和”的局部最优,并大幅减少了自己在这一方向上的研究。他的警告来自 RNN 时代:研究者多年把每字符 1.26 比特提升到 1.24 比特,持续获得可发表的增益,却在深层 decoder-only Transformer 将结果直接推进到约 1.1 比特后突然失去意义。“某个时刻会出现突破,”他认为,届时今天无休止的架构微调可能同样变得多余。

  • 下一代架构必须“明显且压倒性地更好”,因为 Transformer 的基础设施已经制造出巨大的切换成本。研究者已经掌握如何训练、微调、检查和部署 Transformer,而把现有模型扩大 10 倍,可能就足以压过一次幅度有限的架构改进。对投资者而言,这意味着仅有基准测试优势还称不上颠覆;挑战者必须抵消整个既有软件、人才技能与算力实践体系。

  • Sakana AI 的 Continuous Thought Machine 将序列化内部计算、神经元级模型与基于同步的表征结合起来。CTM 历时约 8个月开发,并获得 NeurIPS 2025 spotlight;它把“思考”视为随时间展开的过程,而不是单一的激活状态。Hewitt 的迷宫案例清楚展示了差异:一次性预测 100步或 200步路径会失败,而学会按顺序描出路径后,问题变得可解。

  • CTM 的自适应算力是从训练目标中自然涌现的,而非依靠手工平衡的计算惩罚项强行加入。在 50步的 ImageNet 设置中,训练同时使用损失最低点和置信度最高点;简单图像在 1到2步内完成,复杂图像则自然消耗更多时间。模型还呈现出“近乎完美的校准”,Hewitt 称其为“烟枪证据”,但不是架构更优的决定性证明。

  • CTM 最有说服力的证据来自行为:约束会促使它发现不同的算法。训练迷宫时,它有时沿一条路径前进,识别出错误后回退,再尝试另一条;在思考预算收紧时,它会跳跃前进、反向描出局部路径,再跨越到更远处寻找解。研究结论目前不是 CTM 已能替代 Transformer,而是内部序列搜索产生了比固定深度、一次性计算更丰富的行为。

  • Jones 认为,研究自由既是 Sakana 的运行模式,也是稀缺的战略资产。产品需求、发表压力与投资者预期会逐步压缩自主性,让“可能太怪”的想法输给安全的 positional-embedding 论文。他押注的是开放式探索,包括进化搜索:其他方向已投入数亿美元,而最大规模的进化搜索可能还只有数万量级;同时他也承认,商业成功最终可能带来同样的“技术俘获”。

  • SudokuBench 表明,推理领域的 headline 进展仍会在真正新颖、需要组合推理的任务上失灵。最强模型在手工设计的变体数独上得分约 15%,GPT-5 虽有提升,却仍无法解决人类能够处理的题目;模型不会找到每道题独有的破局点,而是退回“我试试 5、我试试 6、我试试 7”。Cracking the Cryptic 提供了数千小时的思考轨迹作为训练数据,但 Jones 表示,当前 RL 仍无法稳定采样出所需的稀有推理路径。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. Transformer 的成功占据了研究议程

  • 对一位共同发明者而言,Jones 的个人判断异常直接:今年早些时候,他决定“大幅减少”自己的 Transformer 研究。这个方向是过度饱和,而非已经穷尽;他希望利用自己罕见的自由,把更多精力投入尚未吞噬全行业注意力的架构探索。

  • 主持人借 Kenneth Stanley 的《Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned》来解释 Sakana:让研究者沿着自己的“兴趣梯度”前进,才能产生发现;委员会和固定目标则会收敛成“灰色黏液”。Jones 说,公司内部会讨论这一理念;作为联合创始人,他的核心工作之一就是在公司壮大后保护这种自主性。

  • Jones 对组织的诊断是因果链条式的:人才和资本越多,竞争越激烈;投资者最终要求回报;公司需要产品;发表或商业化的压力上升;自主性下降。他仍会对新员工说:“我希望你做自己认为有趣且重要的事。”而且他说这是真心话。

  • 他举的被忽视的规模案例是进化搜索。这个领域已经投入“数亿美元”,而最大的进化搜索可能还只有数万量级;他预计,真正有人把规模推上去后,会出现有意思的结果。在一个押注单一技术的环境里,向内部推销这一方向得到的是“零兴趣”,这也促成了他创办自己的公司。

2. RNN 时代说明优化工作可能迅速过时

  • Transformer 出现之前,循环网络也曾给人一种架构已经定型的感觉。字符级语言模型论文不断重排 LSTM 或 GRU 门控、调整初始化、加入层级计算;从每字符 1.26 比特到 1.25、再到 1.24,比特数下降幅度很小,却都是真实、可发表、令人兴奋的进步。

  • 随后,Jones 的团队将非常深的 decoder-only Transformer 应用于语言建模,立即把结果推到约每字符 1.1 比特。同事们走到他们工位前,怀疑是不是计算错了——也许结果单位是 nats——但“这确实是正确的数字”。优秀的 RNN 研究方向突然显得多余。

  • 他刻意做了一个令人不适的类比:今天对 normalization 位置、训练配方及其他 Transformer 变体的研究,可能只是对一种等待非连续替代的架构进行又一轮复杂优化。“我个人不认为我们已经走到终点,”他说;持续扩展规模,在他看来并不能证明 Transformer 就是最终架构。

  • 主持人担心,基础模型正在让架构能力消亡:数据科学家和 ML 工程师逐渐变成以 prompt 为中心的 AI 工程师。Jones 则反驳说:“我们有很多极具天赋、极富创造力的研究者,但他们没有在使用这些才能。”激励机制让发表一篇安全的 positional-embedding 论文,比尝试一个可能失败、也可能难以发表的怪想法更理性。

3. 渐进式优势无法抵消 Transformer 的既有体系

  • Jones 说,研究领域已经存在性能超过 Transformer 的架构,但领先幅度不够。现有架构背后积累了知识、微调方法、推理系统、内部机制理解和成熟训练软件;因此,“更好还不够,必须明显且压倒性地更好”。

  • Transformer 凭借更快的训练速度和大幅更高的准确率,曾对 RNN 跨过这道门槛。深度学习同样通过变得无法忽视,打消了人们对符号 AI 的怀疑。如今新设计面临一种引力:巧妙的准确率提升,可能被一家成熟实验室把 Transformer “做大 10倍”后轻易抹平。

  • Jones 最难忽视的症状是“锯齿状智能”:模型刚解决一道博士级问题,下一句话却说出显而易见的错误。当前网络可能是通用逼近器,只要投入足够的数据、算力和耐心,就能被迫完成几乎任何事情,“但我不一定认为它们想这么做”。

  • 他用来说明问题的典型案例,是一篇矩阵指数论文中的螺旋分类器。ReLU 和 tanh 网络可以用碎片化的边界在技术上分离所有点;另一种方法则直接把螺旋表示成螺旋,并外推其延续形态。Scarfe 将这一点延伸到视频生成模型:把手部从错误的手指数量修到 5根,可能只是增加了蛮力,而不是获得了理解手的表征。

4. CTM 通过时间而非静态隐藏状态表达思考

  • Hewitt 说,Continuous Thought Machine 历时约 8个月完成——按当前 AI 论文标准算很久——建立在 3个想法之上:内部序列化思考维度、神经元级模型,以及作为核心表征的同步。他强调,这并非远离局部最优的激进设计,而是一个受自然启发、经过谨慎开发、最终获得 NeurIPS 2025 spotlight 的简单偏离。

  • 迷宫之所以成为“hello world”,是因为传统深度学习可以并行输出完整的解题掩码,而更接近人类的表述需要一个序列:向上、向右、向上、向左。一旦模型必须从起点到终点逐步输出路线,一个看似简单的视觉任务就会明显变难。

  • CTM 的每个神经元本身都是一个小模型。它不是把一次 pre-activation 直接映射到一个输出,而是读取该神经元一段有限的激活历史,再生成下一次 post-activation,让动态过程在单个单元层面逐步累积。

  • 随后,模型通过测量神经元对在各自激活历史上的同步程度来形成表征,用点积代替只读取某一时刻的循环状态。每一对神经元都可以采用不同时间尺度的指数衰减,从即时共同激活到长期协同,从而扩展出阶数为 (d^2) 的关系空间。Hewitt 的前提是:“思考这个概念,本身就是随时间存在的东西。”

5. 自适应计算从训练目标中自然产生

  • 在迷宫设置中,CTM 持续看到完整图像,并通过 attention 获取信息,同时获得例如约 100步的内部思考步数。由于 CTM 和其他受测模型都无法一次性预测 100步或 200步路线,团队构建了一个始终略超当前能力的自动课程:概念上多 1步,实践中多 5步。

  • 在 ImageNet 中,模型运行 50步,训练会从 0到49 中找出 2个索引:损失最低的位置和置信度最高的位置,并在这两个点计算交叉熵平均值。由此产生的行为十分清晰:简单样本在 1到2步内结束,困难样本则自然使用更多可用的思考时间。

  • Hewitt 将这一结果与 Alex Graves 的《Adaptive Computation Time》工作作对比,后者需要大规模超参数搜索和计算损失惩罚。Tommy Leung 解释说,这是因为神经网络具有“贪婪性”,使用所有可用算力通常都会降低损失。而在 CTM 中,没有任何显式目标要求模型采用自适应时间;“自适应计算时间似乎就是自然涌现出来了”。

  • 同步机制似乎还有助于梯度在长时间循环运行中传播,因为它会触及跨越许多时间步的神经元;Hewitt 说,模型在广泛的超参数设置下“基本就这样跑通了”。训练完成后,模型也几乎达到了完美校准——其置信度与经验正确率相匹配——但他将其视为有启发性的信号,而非定论。

6. 内部序列搜索打开了不同的扩展维度

  • Hewitt 认为,思维链推理本质上也是一种增加算力的新维度。CTM 尝试将这一序列过程内化,而不是把每个中间步骤都用语言表达出来;它通过多个时间层级之间的同步,在高维潜空间中进行搜索。

  • 对 ARC 类任务而言,他认为潜在优势在于:模型可以向前投射 1步、100步或 200步,同时把稀疏问题拆解为一个过程。他没有声称该架构已经解决 ARC;更谨慎的说法是,这种表征可能提供固定深度 Transformer 缺少的灵活性,值得直接实验。

  • 当被问及神经图灵机时,Hewitt 明确拒绝最强的表述:“我不会进一步声称 Continuous Thought Machine 已被明确证明是”图灵完备的。两者的相似之处在于,潜在推理都随时间展开,但不要求具备外部神经记忆所涉及的、困难的离散读写操作。

  • 这一架构还改变了难度的表达方式。ViT 或 CNN 必须把显而易见的猫和一个罕见、代表性不足的类别,都嵌入同一套固定堆栈;CTM 则可以在不同时间停止,自然地将样本从简单分层到困难。这种架构层面的课程学习类似人类学习过程,却不需要手动划分数据集。

7. 迷宫行为显示,算力约束可以创造新算法

  • 在训练中期,团队观察到 CTM 开始沿迷宫的一条路径前进,似乎意识到“糟了,该死,我错了”,随后回退并选择另一条路。后来它变得更高效,使用多个 attention head 以更分布式的方式优化解法。camera-ready 补充材料记录了约 14个这样的意外观察。

  • 收紧思考预算后,模型出现了最奇怪的行为。它不再连续追踪一条长迷宫,而是大致向前跳跃,再反向填补一段路径,然后再次跃进,如此重复。“结果发现,这样做有更快的算法,”Hewitt 说;但除了承认约束会改变学习到的算法,他仍不确定这一行为意味着什么。

  • 语言也可能是一座含义模糊的迷宫:许多不同轨迹都能抵达可行输出,系统必须识别错误路线,并进行修正或回退。Hewitt 正在积极探索语言建模,但仍保留条件判断;把含义不明确的迷宫解法加入训练,本身仍是一个他尚未完成的实验。

8. 记忆与 AI 科学家可能把孤立搜索变成集体搜索

  • Hewitt 描述了一个潜在的记忆实验:把智能体限制在迷宫中约 5×5 的局部视野内,迫使它保存并调取足够的历史信息,以便回到某个位置时记住“我上次做错了”。多个智能体可以共享这份近似“文化记忆”的存储,在各自只能看到局部信息的情况下协同解决全局任务。

  • Jones 预计,模型会逐渐成为更强大的研究伙伴。Sakana 的 AI Scientist 已经展示了从一个种子想法到代码、实验、结果和论文的端到端流程,并产出了一篇“100% AI 生成的论文”,被一个 workshop 接收。他将其视为可行性的证明,而不是自己偏好的工作安排。

  • 他近期设想的模式仍是交互式的:输入一个想法,讨论替代方案,检查生成的代码,并在结果出现时讨论结果。他把这种关系比作实习生:没有足够丰富的研究愿景可以一次性完整传递,然后放任 4个月不管;持续引导才能传达隐性意图和路径依赖形成的理解。

  • Jones 承认,这种协作最终可能带来伤害。人类与引擎结合曾经胜过单独的国际象棋引擎,但如今“加入人类反而会让机器人变差”。如果 AI Scientist 强大到他的介入开始拖累系统,那么人类是否应该退出,就不再只是技术流程选择,而会成为更广泛的问题。

9. SudokuBench 暴露了流畅推理与新颖突破之间的差距

  • SudokuBench 由手工设计的变体数独组成:标准的行、列、宫约束,再加上独特的自然语言规则。有一道题的规则描述中写着某个数字是错误的;另一道题叠加了一个迷宫,老鼠前往奶酪的路线必须服从数字约束。因此,解题不仅需要理解题面,有时还需要对题目规格进行元推理。

  • 当前最强模型得分约 15%,而且主要集中在最小、最简单的题目上。Jones 说,GPT-5 带来了跃升,但仍无法解决人类能够解决的题目。每道题都有独特的“破局点”,而模型通常会退回无聊的枚举:“我试试 5、我试试 6、我试试 7。”

  • 训练资产来自《Cracking the Cryptic》:专业解题者会通过视频口述推理过程,有些视频时长达到 4小时。经许可,Sakana 提取了数千小时的详细思考轨迹,并将其用于模仿学习——这近似实现了 Andrej Karpathy 希望能够伴随人类成品文本一同存在的隐藏推理。

  • 专业人类拥有大量“推理积木”,能够识别规则暗示的模式,进行测试,发现信息不足后再回退。当前模型在该基准上没有展现出可比的元推理能力,现有 RL 也会失败,因为所需的突破过于罕见,无法稳定采样。Jones 认为,SudokuBench 的实质性进步,将意味着 AI 推理整体的实质性进步。

Llion Jones

Despite the fact that I was involved in inventing the Transformer, luckily no one has been working on them as long as I have, right, with maybe the exception of the other 7 authors. So I actually made the decision earlier this year that I'm going to drastically reduce the amount of research that I'm doing specifically on the Transformer because I have the feeling that it's an oversaturated space. It's not that there's no more interesting things to be done with them. I'm going to make use of the opportunity to do something different, right? To actually turn up the amount of exploration that I'm doing in my research.

We just released the Continuous Thought Machines. It's a spotlight at NeurIPS 2025 this year. You should care about it because it has native adaptive compute. It's a new way of building a recurrent model that uses higher-level concepts for neurons and synchronization as a representation that lets us solve problems in ways that seem more human by being biologically and nature-inspired.

The atmosphere in AI research was actually quite different back during the Transformer years because it doesn't feel like something similar could actually happen right now, because of the reduced amount of freedom that we have, right? The Transformer was very bottom-up, right? It's not that somebody had this grand plan that came down from on high that this is what we should be working on. It was a bunch of people talking over lunch, thinking about what the current problems are and how to solve them, and having the freedom to have literally months to dedicate to just trying this idea and having this new architecture fall out.

We've spent hundreds of millions of dollars. The biggest sort of evolution-based search is probably in the tens of thousands. We have all this compute. What happens if you scale up these search algorithms? I'm sure you'll find something interesting when someone eventually does bite that bullet and really scale up these evolutionary sort of artificial-life experiments, because I pitched it in an environment where people were just going all in on this one technology. I got zero interest. So now I have my own company and I can pursue those directions.

This podcast is supported by Cyber Fund.

Omar

Hey folks, I'm Omar, product and design lead at Google DeepMind. We just launched a revamped vibe coding experience in AI Studio that lets you mix and match AI capabilities to turn your ideas into reality faster than ever. Just describe your app and Gemini will automatically wire up the right models and APIs for you. And if you need a spark, hit I'm feeling lucky and we'll help you get started. Head to a.studio/build studio/build to create your first app.

Two for AI Labs is a research lab based in Zurich. They've got a team of amazing ML engineers and research scientists. They're doing some really cool stuff. If you look at their website, for example, you can see what their approach was for winning the ARC AGI 3 public competition, which closed out a few months ago, and they are hiring amazing ML engineers and research scientists. They also care deeply about AI safety. So if any of that is a fit for you, please go to Two for AI Labs and give it a go.

Tim Scarfe

The audience will know I'm a huge fan of Kenneth Stanley's ideas. His book, Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned, changed my life. It was absolutely insane. What he was speaking to is that we need to allow people to follow their own gradient of interest, unfettered by objectives and committees and so on.

That's how we do epistemic foraging: when you have too many agendas involved in the mix, you kind of end up with gray goo and you don't discover interesting novelty and diversity. I suppose that's basically the thesis of your company, Sakana, to lean into those ideas.

Llion Jones

Yes, exactly. At the company, we're massive fans of that book. We're hoping to have him come and talk at our company next week, actually. It's a philosophy that we do talk about internally, right? We have copies of the book, including the recent Japanese translation.

As you know, as one of the co-founders, one of my main jobs—one of the main things that I have to keep doing for this company—is making sure that we protect the freedom that the researchers currently have, right? It's a privilege, really, that we have the resources to be able to do that. Inevitably, as I've seen happen, as the company grows, more and more pressure comes in and it narrows the freedom. But because we believe in this philosophy so strongly, I'm hoping that we can give people all the research freedom that we do now for as long as possible.

Tim Scarfe

What are those processes that curtail freedom as a company matures? I mean, how would you describe that?

Llion Jones

It's great that there's never been so much interest, people, talent, resources, and money in the industry, but unfortunately that just increases the amount of pressure people have to compete with all the other people working on it and trying to get the value out of this technology and make money. I think that's what just happens, right? As a startup, you have a feeling of excitement and trying something new. Right at the beginning, you have a bit of a runway, so you have the freedom to try different things.

But inevitably, people start to ask for returns on their investments or they're expecting you to churn out some product. This just unfortunately reduces the creativity that researchers have because the pressure to publish, or the pressure to create technology that's actually useful for the products that we have, goes up. So the feeling of autonomy, I think, starts to go down.

But I literally tell people when they start working for the company, “I want you to work on what you think is interesting and important,” and I mean it. On YouTube, there's a phenomenon called audience capture.

Tim Scarfe

Right. I think there might be a phenomenon called technology capture, which is that in the early days of Google, it was quite open-ended. I mean, the Transformer is now the ubiquitous backbone of all AI technology, and it's a huge achievement that you're involved in.

But there's a similar story with OpenAI. They're now starting to see all of these commercialization opportunities. They can—I mean, they're going to become LinkedIn. They're going to become an application platform. They're going to become a search platform. They're going to become a social network.

I guess this could happen to you guys. There's a very strong chance, especially with your new paper that we're going to talk about today, these Continuous Thought Machines. It could be a revolutionary technology, but then it will become obvious how it could be commercialized. That's how those pressures come in.

Llion Jones

I like the audience-capture analogy. I think there's definitely been some kind of capture by large language models, right? They worked so well that everyone wanted to work on them. I'm really worried that we're kind of stuck in this local minimum now, right? We need to try to escape it.

So we spoke about the Transformers, but there's a time just before the Transformers that I'd like to talk about because I think it's quite illustrative. Of course, the main technology before Transformers was recurrent neural networks, right? There was a similar feeling, right? When recurrent neural networks came in and we discovered this new sort of sequence-to-sequence learning, that was also a massive breakthrough, right? The translation quality went up massively, right? Voice-recognition quality went up massively.

There was a similar sort of feeling then, like, okay, yes, we've found the technology and we just need to perfect this technology. Back then, even my favorite task was character-level language modeling. Every time a new RNN-based character-level language-modeling paper came out, I got quite excited. I would want to quickly read the paper: How did they get the improvements? But the papers were always just these slight modifications on the same architecture, right?

It was LSTMs and GRUs, and maybe initializing it with the identity matrix so that you could use the ReLU function, or maybe if you put the gate in a different place, or if you layered them in a slightly different way, or if you had gating going upwards as well as sideways. One of my favorites was this hierarchical LSTM, where it would actually decide to compute or not compute the different layers.

If you trained on Wikipedia and looked at the structure of when it was decided to compute or not compute, it kind of looked like the structure of the sentences was actually being picked up by the model. I used to love that sort of stuff, right? But the improvements were always like 1.26 bits per character, 1.25 bits per character, 1.24. That was a result that was publishable, right? That was exciting.

But then after the Transformer, the team I joined afterward applied, for the first time, very deep Transformer models—decoder-only Transformer models—to language modeling, and we immediately got something like 1.1, right? Something that was so good that people actually came to our desk and politely told us, “I think you made a calculation error. Do you think it's nats, not bits per character?”

And we're like, “No, no, no, it really is the correct number.”

Tim Scarfe

What struck me later is that, all of a sudden, all of that research—and, to be clear, very good research—was made completely redundant.

Llion Jones

Yes.

Tim Scarfe

Right. All of those endless permutations of RNNs were suddenly seemingly a waste of time. We're kind of in the situation right now where a lot of the papers are just taking the same architecture and making endless amounts of different tweaks, like where to put the normalization layer and slightly different ways of training them. We might be wasting our time in exactly the same way, right? I personally don't think we're done. I don't think this is the final architecture and that we just need to keep scaling up. There's some breakthrough that will occur at some point, and then it will once again become obvious that we're wasting a lot of time right now.

Llion Jones

Yeah. So, we are a victim of our own success and this basin of attraction. There are so many basins of attraction. Sarah Hooker spoke about the hardware lottery, and this is a kind of architecture lottery.

It actually made me think of the agricultural revolution, which is that this kind of phase change happened, and all of the folks who had these skills that were so necessary—these diverse skills for living and surviving—they died out. That's actually quite paradoxical, because we need those skills to take the next step.

Tim Scarfe

And so, we're now in this regime where we've got the term “foundation model,” and the implication is that you can do anything with a foundation model. In the corporate world, we used to have data scientists—you know, ML engineers doing these architectural tweaks, even in midsize enterprises—and now we just have AI engineers who are doing prompt engineering and so on.

So, you're saying that the fundamental skills we need in order to be diverse, think of new solutions, and develop new architectures are dying out. I think I'm going to disagree with that. I think we have plenty of very talented, very creative researchers out there, but they're not using their talents.

For example, if you're in academia, there's pressure to publish, right? If there's pressure to publish, you think to yourself, “Okay, well, I have this really cool idea, but it might not work. It might be too weird. It might be difficult to get it accepted because I have to sell the idea more. Or I can just try this new positional embedding.”

The problem is that the current environment, both in academia and in companies, is not actually giving people the freedom they need to do the research they probably want to do. There's also this interesting thing that, even in spite of great new research—I was speaking to Sebastian Hoyer, and he's got all of these new architectural ideas—OpenAI aren't implementing them. Google are doing this diffusion language model, which is quite cool, and I'd like to know your opinion on why that is.

There are a few philosophies floating around, like this concept of a universal representation: that there are universal patterns, and the transformer representations resemble those in the brain. That has led to the idea that we don't need to use different architectures, because if we just have more scale and more compute, all roads lead to Rome. Why would we bother doing it any differently?

Llion Jones

There are actually better architectures, right? There are architectures that have already been shown in research to work better than transformers. But they're not better enough to move the entire industry away from such an established architecture, where you're familiar with it, you know how to train it, you know how it works, and you know how the internals work. You know how to fine-tune them. All the software is already set up for training transformers, fine-tuning transformers, and inference.

If you want to move the industry away from that, being better is not good enough. It has to be obviously, crushingly better. Transformers were that much better than RNNs. When you applied them to a new problem, they were just so much faster to train, and you got such higher accuracy that you had to move.

I think the deep learning revolution was also another example of that, right? You had plenty of skeptics, and people were pushing neural networks even back then. People were saying, “No, we think symbolic stuff will work better.” But then they demonstrated that neural networks were so much better that you couldn't ignore it.

This fact makes finding the next thing even harder, right? That's the gravitational pull, always pulling you back to, “Oh, okay, but a transformer is good enough.” You made a cool little architecture over here that looks like it's got better accuracy, but OpenAI over here just made it 10 times bigger and it beats that. So, let's just keep going.

Tim Scarfe

May I also submit that there could be an additional reason? I love that “Fractured Entangled Representations” paper. There's this shortcut-learning problem, and I think there's a bit of a mirage going on here. There might be problems with these language models that we're not fully aware of.

There's also this thing where we're starting to bastardize the architecture. We know we need to have adaptive computation for reasoning. We know we want things like uncertainty quantification. What we're doing is bolting these things on top, rather than having an architecture that intrinsically does all of these things that we know we need.

Llion Jones

Yeah. I think our Continuous Thought Machine is an attempt at addressing those more directly, which Luke will be able to tell you more about later.

There's something still not quite right with the current technology, right? I think the phrase that's becoming popular is “jagged intelligence”: the fact that you can ask an LLM something and it can solve literally a PhD-level problem, and then, in the next sentence, it can say something so clearly and obviously wrong that it's jarring. I think this is actually a reflection of something probably quite fundamentally wrong with the current architecture.

As amazing as they are, the current technology is actually too good. That's another reason why it's difficult to move away from them, right? They're too good in the following sense. You spoke about the fact that we have these foundation models, so we have the foundation that we can do anything with them.

Yes, I think current neural networks are so powerful that, if you have enough patience, enough compute, and enough data, you can make them do anything. But I don't necessarily think that they want to. We're sort of forcing them. They're universal function approximators, but I think there are probably spaces of function approximators that will want to represent things more in the way that a human represents them.

There's actually quite an obscure paper that is my poster child for this. It's called “Intelligence via Matrix Exponentiation.”

Tim Scarfe

And I think it was actually rejected. You can probably project the image of Figure 1, but there's an image of it solving the classical spiral dataset, where you need to separate the 2 classes in the spiral.

Llion Jones

Yes. It has the decision boundary for both a classic ReLU multilayer perceptron and a tanh multilayer perceptron. You can see that they both solve it, right? Technically, they both solve the problem, because they classify all the points correctly and get a very good test score on this very simple dataset.

Then they show you the decision boundary for the MEX layer that they built in this paper, and it's a spiral. The layer represented the spiral as a spiral. Shouldn't we, if the data is a spiral, represent it as a spiral?

If you look back at the decision boundaries for the spiral and the classic ReLU multilayer perceptron, it's clear that you just have these tiny little piecewise-linear separations. That's what I mean. If you train these things enough and push these little piecewise-linear boundaries around enough, they can fit the spiral and get high accuracy. But when I look at that image, I don't get the feeling that the ReLU version actually understands that it is a spiral.

When you represent it as a spiral, it actually extrapolates correctly, because the spiral just keeps going out.

Tim Scarfe

You're touching on something fascinating there because we were talking about the need for adaptivity and adaptive computation. I'm really inspired by Randall Balestriero's spline theory of neural networks. We've had him on many times, and you can look at the TensorFlow Playground and see what happens when you have a ReLU network on this spiral manifold.

You'd be forgiven for thinking that these things are basically a locality-sensitive hashing table, right? They partition the space, and they can predict the spiral manifold. But we want to do something a little bit different than that.

It also comes into this impostor thing, because just tracing the spiral manifold but not continuing the pattern—there's a big difference between that. From an impostor perspective, just tracing the pattern is not learning it abstractly or constructively.

If we learned it constructively, as you speak about in your paper—with this complexification, these abstract building blocks—we could do adaptive computation. You understand the spiral. That means that, with adaptive computation, you can continue the spiral and then update the model's weights, so it has adaptivity, because that's so important for intelligence.

So we know that we need models that can do these things. But for some reason, they’re so sycophantic, they’re almost better than an adaptive intelligent system because they tell us exactly what we want to hear. They seem so intelligent, but we know that they’re missing these fundamental properties.

I’m still fairly skeptical when I see video-generation models. We went through a phase where you could detect them because of the number of fingers on somebody’s hand, right? With more data, more compute, and better training tricks, they improve, and now they usually do have 5 fingers. But did we fix the problem, or did we just use more brute force to force the neural network to know it’s 5 fingers, rather than having something that actually had a much better representation space?

It’s almost mad that it’s controversial to say that we should represent a spiral like a spiral. Something that could do that generally—if it represented a human hand the way that maybe I represent a human hand—might make it much easier to count how many fingers are on a hand. It’s unfortunate that they work so well. It’s unfortunate that scaling works so well, because it’s too easy for people to just sweep these problems under the carpet.

You guys have possibly created what I think might be the best paper of the year. This could actually be the innovation that takes us to the next step. Did you get the spotlight in Europe as well?

Luke Hewitt

Yeah.

Tim Scarfe

This year, and congratulations on that. I think that’s testament to how amazing this paper is.

Luke Hewitt

The CTM, the Continuous Thought Machine, is actually not that far outside of the local minimum that we’re stuck in. It’s not as if we went and found this completely new technology. We took quite a simple, biologically inspired idea: the fact that neurons synchronize—and not even necessarily in a biologically plausible way. Brains don’t literally have all their neurons wired together in a way that they work out their synchronization.

But it’s the sort of research that I want to encourage people to do. The way to sell it is quite easy. I think at no point did we have to worry about being scooped, right? That stress was taken away from us completely. There was no pressure to rush out with this idea, because we thought, “Well, there’s probably somebody else working on exactly this.”

I think the reason that we were able to get a spotlight is because we were able to create such a polished paper. We took the time to do the science properly, get the baselines that we wanted, and do all the tasks that we wanted to try.

Encouraging researchers to take a little bit more of a risk—to try these slightly more speculative, long-term ideas—I think the sad thing is, I don’t think it’s necessarily a very difficult thing to sell. I want to have the CTM as a poster child of “it works,” right? It was a bit of a risk. We didn’t know if we were going to find something interesting, but it was our first shot, and we did find something interesting, and it became a successful paper.

Tim Scarfe

If we do find a system that can acquire knowledge, design new architectures, and do the open-ended type of science that you’re speaking to, can you see a future where, at some point, the locus of progress will be mostly driven by the models themselves?

Llion Jones

I think so. Whether or not that’s going to replace us completely, I go back and forth on. Powerful algorithms are helping us do research, right? I think it might just end up being a more powerful version of that.

The AI Scientist that we released showed that you could actually go end to end: go from seeding the system with an idea for a research paper, take your hands off, and just let it go. Think about the idea, write the code, run the code, collect the results, and write the paper—to the point that we were actually able to get a 100% AI-generated paper accepted to a workshop recently, right?

But I think we did that to show that you could do it, as a sort of demonstration in a real system. I think I would want it to be much more interactive. I would want to seed it with an idea and then have it come back with more ideas, have a discussion with me, and then go away to write the code.

I want to look at the code and check it, and then discuss the results as they’re coming out. So that’s the sort of near-term future that I would envision, or how I would like to do research with an AI.

Tim Scarfe

And could you introspect on that? Is it because you feel we need supervision because the models don’t yet understand? There’s this path-dependence idea, so we need to do supervision because we have the path dependence, so we can guide the generation of the language models. Maybe in the future, language models will just understand better themselves.

But there’s also the output dimension, which is that we want to produce artifacts that extend the phylogeny of human interest. We want it to be human-relevant.

Llion Jones

Yeah, I think it’s more that, in that initial seed idea, it’s probably impossible to actually describe exactly what you want. It’s exactly the same with when I have an intern. I can’t just have an intern come into the company and say, “I have this mad idea,” explain it to them, and then leave them alone for 4 months.

There’s a back-and-forth because I have a particular idea that I want to explore, and I need to keep steering them in the direction that I had in my mind originally. So I think it’s more like that, basically.

You have such a deep understanding. You have this rich provenance and history and path dependence, and that means you can take creative, intuitive steps that respect the phylogeny. They respect all of this deep, abstract understanding that you have, and interns don’t yet have that.

Tim Scarfe

But maybe AI models in the future will have that.

Llion Jones

Yeah, sure. If they get to the point where my input becomes detrimental, then, yeah, that’ll be a thing. It’s kind of like chess, right? There was a point at which chess-engine-and-human fusion actually beat chess engines. That’s not true anymore, right? Adding a human into the mix actually makes the bots worse.

Tim Scarfe

Oh, interesting. I wasn’t aware of that.

Llion Jones

Yeah. So what to do when that day comes for AI scientists is a broader discussion, I think.

Tim Scarfe

I think now is a good segue to talk about this paper in a little bit more detail. This Continuous Thought Machine—you were just pointing to it before. Luke, first of all, mate, introduce yourself and set this thing up for us.

Luke Hewitt

My name is Luke. I am a research scientist at Sakana AI, and my primary area of research is the Continuous Thought Machine. It took us somewhere in the region of about 8 months to work on this project with the whole team. I did a lot of the work, but we also had a lot of people in different areas, doing different parts of it. I think an 8-month life cycle for a paper seems a bit long for AI research at the moment.

But yes, to the actual technical points of the paper. We call it Continuous Thought Machines. It originally had a different name. We called it Asynchronous Thought Machines before, but every single time people asked us, “What’s the asynchronous part?” it became a bit confusing.

Continuous Thought Machines basically depend on 3 novelties. The first one is having what we call an internal thought dimension, and this is not necessarily something new. It’s related conceptually to the ideas of latent reasoning, and it’s essentially applying compute in a sequential dimension.

When you start thinking about ideas and problems in this domain and in this framework, you start understanding that many solutions to problems that look intelligent are often solutions that have a sequential nature. For instance, 1 of the primary tasks that we tested in the Continuous Thought Machines was this maze-solving task.

Solving mazes for deep learning is quite trivial. It’s really easy to do if you make the task easy for machines. One of the ways to do this is to give an image of a maze to a neural network, like a convolutional neural network, and have it output an image the same size as the maze. It’s 0s where there isn’t a path and 1s where there is a path.

There’s some really brilliant work showing how you can train these in a careful way and scale them up essentially indefinitely. This is a fascinating and really interesting idea of how to solve this. However, when you take that approach out of the picture and ask what is a more human way to solve this problem, it becomes a sequential problem.

You have to say, “Go up, go right, go up, go left,” whatever the case may be, to trace a route from start to finish. When you constrain that simple problem space and ask a machine-learning system to solve it like that, it turns out to actually get much more challenging.

So this became our hello-world problem for the CTM, and applying an internal, sequential thought dimension to this is how we went about solving it. There are 2 other novelties that we can touch on and talk about.

We sort of rethought the idea of what neurons should be. There is a lot of excellent research in this world, particularly in cognitive neuroscience, exploring how neurons work in biological systems. Then, on the other side of the scale, we have how deep-learning neurons work. The quintessential example is a ReLU: it’s off or on, in a sense.

This very, very high-level abstraction of neurons in the brain feels a little bit myopic.

So we approached this problem and said, well, let’s, on a neuron-by-neuron basis, let this neuron be a little model itself. This ended up doing a lot of interesting work on how to build dynamics in the system.

The third novelty here is, as I said before, we have this internal dimension over which thinking happens. We ask the question: What is the representation? What is the representation for a biological system when it’s thinking? Is it just the state of the neurons at any given time? Does that capture a thought, if you wish? If I can be controversial and use the terms thinking and thought, my philosophy with this is no, it doesn’t. The concept of a thought is something that exists over time.

So how do we capture that in engineering-speak? Instead of measuring the states of the model that is recurrent, we measure how it synchronizes—how neurons synchronize in pairs along with other neurons. This opens up the door to a huge array of things that we can do with this type of representation.

Tim Scarfe

You were talking about the sequential nature of reasoning. Devil’s advocate: there was that Anthropic biology paper, and they were talking about planning and thinking. They were saying that this thing is planning ahead, and I think your system actually does planning. It’s computationally different. Can you explain that?

Llion Jones

Yes. I think the boundary in terms of computation, from a Turing machine perspective, if you wish, is really interesting. The notion of being able to write your tape, read from a tape, and then write again—to be in a Turing-complete system—is obviously an incredible idea that has completely changed the world.

I think the primary difference—let’s talk about transformers versus what we’re trying to do with the CTM—is that, in the process through which the CTM thinks, we can apply that internal process to breaking down a problem. The problem itself can have a single solution, and you could do that in one shot. As I explained with the maze, you could just process that in one shot, but there are certain phrasings of problems—real problems—where doing so becomes exponentially more challenging.

In the maze task, a really good example is that if you try to predict 100 or 200 steps down the path in one shot, no models that we could train—not even our model—could do that. We needed to build an autocurriculum system where the model first predicted the first step, and then, when it could predict the first step, we started training it on the second, third, and fourth steps.

The resultant behavior of this is where it gets interesting. One of the ways that I like to do research, and that I encourage people who work with me to do research, is to understand, if you wish, the behavior of a model. We’re getting to a point now where the models that we build are demonstrably intelligent in ways that keep surprising us, and breaking that down into a single set of metrics, or even a finite single metric about performance, doesn’t seem to me to be the right way to do it. Understanding the behavior and the actions that those models take when you put them in a system and train them in a certain way seems to reveal more about what’s actually going on under the hood.

Tim Scarfe

Very cool. I think I didn’t pick up on this. So you’re doing a fixed number of steps, so you have a context window. Did you say that you’ve set that around 100 steps?

Luke Hewitt

For the maze task, the model always observes the full image at every step. The CTM will observe the full image; for argument’s sake, those inputs could be tokens from a language model or the output of a language model. Those inputs could be numbers that the model has to sort. Whatever the case may be, it should be agnostic to data. That’s how we’ve tried to build it.

But in the maze task, the model can continuously observe the data. No matter where it is, it can look at the whole image simultaneously, but it uses attention to retrieve information from the data. It has, let’s call it, 100 steps that it can think through.

What we do is pick a point where the model solves 3 steps through the maze. It says, “I’m going to go up, up, and right,” and then it’s correct. But then it makes the wrong turn. At that point, we stop supervision. We only train it to solve the fourth step—1 more than what it could. In practice, we do it for 5 steps, but the principle holds.

When you do that, it’s a self-bootstrapping mechanism. I think the intuitive listener will understand how that extends to other domains, other sequential domains—for instance, language prediction many tokens ahead, that sort of thing.

Tim Scarfe

I’m really interested in this idea of adaptive computation. I guess the first question is: How sensitive was the performance to the number of steps? The next question would be: Could you have an arbitrary number of steps? Perhaps, based on uncertainty or some kind of criterion, you could do fewer steps. And the final question is: Could you potentially have an arbitrary or unbounded number of steps?

Luke Hewitt

That’s a really good question. I’ll answer the uncertainty question first, about the sensitivity to steps. A very good example of this is that we just trained the model on ImageNet classification, and our loss function is quite simple.

We run it for, for example, 50 steps, and we pick out 2 distinct points. The first one is where it’s performing the best—that is, where the loss is the lowest—and the second one is where it’s most sure, or most certain. Those give us 2 indices between 0 and 49, inclusive, and we apply cross-entropy at both of those points. We make the loss the average of the cross-entropy at those points.

What this does is induce a behavior where easy examples are solved almost immediately, in 1 or 2 steps, whereas more challenging examples naturally take more thinking. It enables the model to use the full breadth of time that it has available to it in a natural fashion, without having to force it to happen.

Tim Scarfe

You’ve decided to model every neuron as an MLP, which is really fascinating. Talk about that, but also, there’s this notion of synchronization, and I think you use the inner product to determine the extent to which the parameters are synchronized. This kind of unfolds over time as the driving force. Can you explain that in a bit more detail?

Luke Hewitt

Absolutely. I think it’s a good point to explain the neuron-level models, as we call them in the paper, or NLMs, first, because it ties into this. You can imagine a recurrent system as a state vector—a state vector that’s being updated from step to step. We track that state vector, and that state vector unfolds. For each individual neuron, each neuron in the system, we have an unfolding time series. It’s a continuous time series. Well, it’s discrete, but it’s a continuous value. Those time series define what we call the activations over time.

Synchronization is quite simply measuring the dot product between 2 of these time series. So you have a system of d neurons, and essentially you have d² different synchronization pairs. Neuron 1 can be related to neuron 2 by how they synchronize, and neuron 1 can also be related to neuron 3, et cetera.

The neuron-level models function by taking in a finite history, like a FIFO of neuron activations coming in. Instead of being just a ReLU activation, they use that history as information to process a single activation out. That is what moves from what we call pre-activations to post-activations.

The principle here is that this might seem rather arbitrary. Does it help with performance? It turns out that it does, but that’s not really the catch-all solution here. That’s not what we’re after. What we’re after is trying to do something biologically plausible: find the line somewhere between biology, which is how the brain implements things in the biological substrate that we have, and deep learning, which is highly parallelizable, super-fast to learn, backpropagatable, and has all of the nice properties that have got us this far.

We want to find a line somewhere where we can take some sprinkling of biological inspiration but still train it with deep learning. It turns out that neuron-level models are a nice interim that we can do this with. The concept of synchronization is applied on top of the outputs of those neuron-level models.

Tim Scarfe

On the scaling, I think the time complexity is quadratic with respect to the dimension of the synchronization matrix, right? In your paper, you were talking about subsampling to improve performance. How did that affect the stability? Did doing that cost you anything?

Luke Hewitt

Yes, it’s a neat question. In terms of stability, what we found was kind of fun, and this was a sentiment that we had throughout the experiments that we ran with this paper: It tended to work, no matter what we tried it on, across a wide range of hyperparameters.

The problems that you have with backpropagation through time, typically with recurrent models like RNNs and LSTMs, are a challenge. You run for many internal ticks with the RNNs or the LSTMs, and the learning seems to break down. But the fact that we use synchronization, in some sense, touches all of the neurons across all of the time steps, so it really helps with gradient propagation.

A nice, interesting point that’s maybe a bit oblique to what you asked about synchronization is that we have a system of d neurons and, like I said earlier, there are d² possible combinations.

This essentially means that our underlying state, or underlying representation of the system, is quite a lot larger than what you would get by just taking those d neurons. As to what that means in terms of downstream computation and performance, and the things that we can do with this, is what we’re actively exploring right now.

Tim Scarfe

You guys used an exponential decay rate?

Luke Hewitt

You have a system that unfolds over time. It would be maybe a little bit too constrained if the synchronization between any two neurons depended on the same time scale. For instance, there are neurons in your brain that are firing over very long time scales and very short time scales. The way that they fire together impacts other neurons and causes those neurons to fire.

Everything in biological brains happens at diverse time scales. It’s why we have different brain waves for different thinking states, for instance. Besides that point, what we do with the exponential decay in the Continuous Thought Machines is that it allows us to have a very sharp decay, to say that for these two neurons that are pairing together, what really matters is how they fire together right now.

But if we had a very long and slow decay, essentially that’s capturing a global sense of how those neurons are firing over an extremely long period of time. This was essentially a way of capturing the idea of how different neurons could maybe fire together very quickly, while other neurons can fire together very slowly or not at all.

This lets that representation space that I spoke about—that d² representation space—become richer again. We can enrich that space with more subtle tweaks to how we compute those representations.

Tim Scarfe

We were speaking about this yesterday, Luke. When folks apply transformers to things like the ARC challenge, or to things that need reasoning, we need to do lots of domain-specific hacks. The ARChitects, who were the winners of last year’s challenge, did depth-first search sampling, and some folks have been experimenting with using language representations or DSLs.

Some of this is to do with the reachability of language, right? Language is quite dense, which means you can kind of monotonically increase. But if I understand correctly, your system might have some interesting properties for reasoning and for discrete and sparse domains, and also for sample efficiency, because we want to build a system that can actually do well on things like the ARC challenge.

Can you explain in simple terms why you think this architecture could be significantly better than transformers for doing those things?

Luke Hewitt

I think a lot of the really fascinating work in the last few years that I found fascinating in the literature of language models has been related to what one can actually call a new scaling dimension. I see continuous chain-of-thought reasoning as a way of adding more compute to a system. That’s obviously just one small part of what that really is and what that really means, but I think it’s quite a profound breakthrough in some sense.

What we’re trying to do is have that reasoning component be entirely internal, yet still running in some sort of sequential manner. I think that’s rather important. You spoke earlier about Gemini’s diffusion language modeling, and I think there are a lot of different directions exploring this right now.

I do think that the Continuous Thought Machine, with the ideas of synchronization and multihierarchical temporal representations, gives a certain flexibility in that space that other people are not yet exploring. The richness of that space—the ability to project the next step to solve the ARC challenge, and the next 100 or the next 200 steps—to break that down into a process that a model can then very quickly search in its high-dimensional latent space becomes something that feels like a good approach to take.

Tim Scarfe

Do you see any relationship between this architecture and Alex Graves’s Neural Turing Machine?

Luke Hewitt

Yes, that’s really interesting. I do. I think one of the most challenging parts about working with a Neural Turing Machine is the concept of writing to memory and reading from memory, because it’s a discrete action. That has its own associated challenges.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that the Continuous Thought Machine is definitively neural Turing complete, but the notion of doing reasoning in a latent space, and letting that space unfold in a way that is rich toward a different set of tasks, is interesting.

This actually brings me to a point that I find quite interesting and that I’d like to share with you. Consider again the ImageNet task, or any sort of classification task. It’s a nice test bed. There are many images that are really easy, and there are many images that are really difficult.

When we train, for instance, a ViT or a CNN to do this task, it has to nest all of that reasoning in the same space. It has to put all of its decision-making process for a very simple, obvious cat versus some complex, weird, underrepresented class in that system and in that data set. It has to nest it all in parallel, in a way that gets us to the last layer, and then we classify.

I think breaking that down, where you have different points in time where you can say, “Now I’m done. I can stop,” lets you take a data set or a task and actually naturally segment it into its easy-to-difficult components. I think we know that curriculum learning and learning in this continuous sense again seems to be a good idea. It’s how humans learn.

If we can get at that architecturally and just have that fall out in a model, again, this seems like something worth exploring. I’m not sure if you know much about model calibration and how neural networks tend to be poorly calibrated.

Oh, go for it, Tommy. It’s a bit of an old finding, but if you train a neural network for long enough and it fits really, really well, and you’ve regularized it really, really well, you’ll find that the model is uncalibrated. This essentially means that it is very certain about some classes where it’s wrong and uncertain about some classes where it’s correct.

What you want for a perfectly calibrated model is that if it predicts a probability that this is in the correct class of 50%, 50% of the time you want it to be correct about that class, and so on and so forth. So if a well-calibrated model is predicting a probability of 0.9 that it is a cat, then 90% of the time it should be correct.

It actually turns out that most models that you train for long enough get poorly calibrated. There are loads of post hoc tricks for fixing this. We measured the calibration of the CTM after training, and it was nearly perfectly calibrated, which is again a little bit of a smoking gun that this actually seems to be probably a better way to do things.

The flavor of this kind of research is such that we didn’t actually go out and try to create a very well-calibrated model. We didn’t even try to create a model that was necessarily going to be able to do some kind of adaptive computation time. I was a very big fan of the paper Adaptive Computation Time by Alex Graves, but that paper had a massive amount of hyperparameter sweeps because it needed to have a loss on the amount of computation that was being done.

Tommy Leung

Anytime you try to do some sort of adaptive computation time research, what you’re fighting is the fact that neural networks are greedy, right? Obviously, the way to get the lowest loss is to use all the computation that you have access to.

So unless you had an extra loss with a penalty that said, “Actually, you’re not allowed to use all the computation,” and very carefully balanced that loss, you didn’t get the interesting dynamic computation-time behavior falling out of the model in that paper.

What was really gratifying to see with the Continuous Thought Machine was that, because of the way we set up the loss that Luke described earlier, adaptive computation times seemed to just fall out naturally. That’s more the way that I think research should go.

Llion Jones

Okay, because we don’t actually have a specific goal or a specific problem we’re trying to fix, or something we’re trying to invent. It’s more that we have this interesting architecture and that we’re just following the gradients of interestingness.

Tim Scarfe

Yes. On that point, I think maybe the most exciting thing about your paper is that we were talking about path dependence and having this understanding that is built step by step, this process of complexification. Maybe this is apropos of the theme of world models in general, and also active inference.

I say “active inference” in big quotes because it’s not Karl Friston’s active inference—maybe adaptive inference or something like that—but we want to build agents that can continue to learn, that can update their parameters, and most importantly can construct path-dependent understanding.

That’s completely different from just understanding what the thing is. How you got there is very important, and this architecture potentially allows these agents, using this algorithm, to explore trajectories in spaces, find the best trajectories, and actually construct an understanding that carves the world up at the joints.

Luke Hewitt

Yeah, that’s a really neat perspective. I haven’t actually thought about it like that, but yes, I think that particular stance becomes really interesting when you think about ambiguous problems, because carving the world up in one way is as performant as carving it up in another way.

Yeah. Perhaps the hallucination in language models is carving the world up in some fine way, but it's just not performant by our measure—this is hallucination, and actually that's not true. But in some other trace down the path of wanting to carve the world up through an autoregressive generation of tokens, you end up in a different carve-up of that world. Being able to train a model that can be implicitly aware of the fact that it is actually carving up the world in a different way and explore those manners, those descents down the carve-up, is something that we're after.

I think it's quite an exciting approach: taking a stance of, let's break up this problem into small, solvable parts and learn to do it like that. How can we do this in a natural way without too many hacks?

Tim Scarfe

Yeah, it's something I've been thinking about because François Chollet—as much as I love his measure of intelligence—the idea for him is that adapting to novelty is getting the right answer, and the reason why you gave that answer is very, very important. In machine learning, we have this problem that we come up with this kind of cost function that rather leads to this shortcut problem.

But we could just build a symbolic system; we could be AGI, and we could say, okay, we need to do this principled kind of construction of knowledge, maintaining semantics. Well, we're not doing that. We're doing a hybrid system. But there must be some natural way of doing reasoning where, in spite of the end objective being this cost function, because of the way that we traverse these open-ended spaces, we can actually have more confidence mechanistically that we're doing reasoning which is aligned to the world.

Llion Jones

I think that's a great way of seeing this particular avenue of research, and obviously we're not the only people thinking like this and we're not the only ones trying to do this. What we have is an architecture that's amenable to it, and surprisingly so. Again, it wasn't the goal. It's not the goal to do this type of research. It's not the goal to be able to break the world down into these small chunks that we can actually reason over in a way that seems natural.

Instead, what we did was pay respect to the brain, pay respect to nature, and say, well, if we build these inspired things, what actually happens? What different ways of approaching a problem emerge? And then when those different ways of approaching a problem emerge, what big philosophical and intelligence-based questions can we then start to ask? And that's where we're at right now.

So it might feel at times, especially for me, too many questions and too few hands to answer those questions. But I think the fun and exciting thing, and the encouraging thing I can say to other younger researchers out there is: do what you're passionate about and figure out how to build the things that you care about, and then see what that does. See what doors that opens up and see how to explore deeper into those domains.

Tim Scarfe

We were talking about this yesterday, weren't we? That you can think of language as being a kind of maze.

Luke Hewitt

Yes. What is to stop us from taking this architecture and building the next-generation language model with it? I mean, that's honestly, as you know, something that I am actively trying to explore right now. I think the maze task gets really interesting when you add ambiguity to it, when there are many ways to solve the maze.

Honestly, this isn't something I've tried yet, and maybe it's something I should try next week. But essentially, you can imagine an agent—or the CTM in this case—observing the maze and taking a trajectory. Surprisingly, we saw this: we have a section in our recently updated paper on arXiv—the final camera-ready version of this paper—where we added an extra supplementary section that is not in the main technical report.

That supplementary section is basically: Hey, we saw this cool stuff happen, and we list, I think, 14 different interesting things that happened while we were doing the research that obviously didn't make it into the paper, but we wanted people to know about these strange things that happened. And this is one of the strange things: we watched during training what was happening.

At some time during training, maybe halfway through the training run, we could see what the model would do. It would start going one path in the maze, and then suddenly it would realize, “Oh no, damn, I'm wrong,” and backtrack and then take another path. But eventually it gets really good, and it does some sort of distributed learning in this because it's got an attention mechanism with multiple heads. So it can actually just figure out how to do this pretty well and refine its solution.

But sometime early on in the learning, it descends multiple paths and comes back and backtracks. We have a really fascinating set of experiments that also showed—and we actually have some supplementary material online showing this—and I don't really know what this says. It's kind of a deep philosophical thing, but if you're trying to solve a maze and you don't have enough time, it turns out that there's a faster algorithm to do it.

This blew my mind when I saw it. So if we constrain the amount of thinking time that the model has but still get it to try to solve a long maze, instead of tracing out that maze, what it does is it quickly jumps ahead to approximately where it needs to be, and it traces backwards and fills in that path backwards. Then it jumps forward again, leapfrogs over the top, and traces that section backwards, and then leapfrogs, and it does this fascinating leapfrogging behavior that is based on the constraint of the system.

And again, this is just an observation we made, and what that means in a deep sense, and how it's related to giving a model time to think versus not—and is it enough time to think? What happens? What different algorithms does the model learn when you constrain it in this way? I find that quite fascinating and an interesting thing to explore.

Does it tell us something about how humans think? Does it tell us something about how we think under constrained settings versus open-ended settings? There are a number of cool questions you can ask on this front.

Tim Scarfe

You guys are both huge fans of population methods and collective intelligence, and because we can scale this thing up and we can scale it out, what would it mean to scale this thing out not only just in a kind of trivial parallelization, but in terms of having some kind of weight sharing between parallel models and so on? What would that give you potentially?

Luke Hewitt

This is a fun area of research. So one of the active things that we're trying to explore in our team is concepts of memory, long-term memory, and what does this mean for a system like this? An experiment that one can construct, for instance, is to put some agents in a maze and let them try to solve this maze—not how we did it in the paper, but in a very constrained setting where an agent can only see maybe a 5×5 region around it—and we give that agent some mechanism for saving and retrieving memories.

The task, if you wish, is to solve that maze, find your way to the end, and the model needs to learn how to construct memory such that it can get back to a point where it's seen before and know, I did the wrong thing last time, and go a different route. You can then see this with parallel agents in the same maze, with a shared memory structure, and see what actually happens when you can all access that memory structure and have a shared global, almost like a cultural memory that we can access and solve this global task by having many agents trying to use this memory system.

I do think that memory is going to be a very key element to what we need to do in the future for AI in general.

Tim Scarfe

So the subject of reasoning came up just a second ago, and I think there's a perception that recently we made a lot of progress in reasoning, right, because it's actually one of the main things that I think people are working on. We released a dataset recently called Sudoku-Bench, and I was actually quite happy to see it come up organically on your podcast a few weeks ago.

Llion Jones

Chris Moore,

Tim Scarfe

Right?

Llion Jones

Yes. So, I wanted to tell you a little bit about this benchmark because I think I've been having a little bit of an issue promoting it because it doesn't, on the surface, sound particularly interesting. Sudoku has a sort of a feeling that it's already been solved, right? So how interesting can a collection of Sudokus be for reasoning?

Exactly. We're not talking about normal Sudokus. We're talking about variant Sudokus. And variant Sudokus are usually normal Sudokus, right? So put the numbers 1 to 9 in the row, the column, and the box, but then literally any additional rules on top of that. And they're all handcrafted. They all have extremely different constraints.

Constraints that actually require very strong natural language understanding. For example, there's one puzzle in the dataset where it tells you the constraints of the puzzle in natural language and then says, “Oh, by the way, one of the numbers in that description is wrong.” Right? So you have to be able to meta-reason about the rules themselves even before you start solving the puzzle.

There are other puzzles where you have a maze overlaid on the Sudoku and the rat has to work out a way through the maze by following a path to the cheese. But there are constraints on the path that it takes, like what numbers and what they can add up to. It's difficult to really describe how varied these variant Sudokus are, and I think they're so varied that if anyone were actually able to beat our benchmark, they would necessarily have created an extremely powerful reasoning system.

Right now, the best models get around 15%, but they're only solving the very simplest and smallest Sudoku puzzles in the set. We're going to be putting out a blog post about GPT-5's performance, and it is a jump, but it's still completely unable to solve puzzles that humans can solve.

What I really like about this data set—and what was actually the catalyst for me creating it in the first place—was that there was a quote by Andrej Karpathy saying, “Okay, so we have all this data; it's from the internet. But what you really want, if you wanted AGI, you wouldn't want all of the text that humans have ever created. You would actually want the thought traces in their head as they were creating the text,” right? “If you could actually learn from that, then you would get something really powerful.”

And I thought to myself, well, that data must exist somewhere. My first thought was maybe philosophy. There's a type of philosophy where you just write down your thoughts without thinking, like stream of consciousness. I thought maybe that could work.

But then, when I wasn't thinking about it and I was in my leisure time, I was watching a YouTube channel called Cracking the Cryptic.

Tim Scarfe

Yes.

Llion Jones

These two British gentlemen solve these extremely difficult Sudoku puzzles for you. Sometimes their videos are 4 hours long, and they're professionals; this is their job. What was perfect, I realized, is that they tell you in agonizing detail exactly what reasoning they used to solve those particular puzzles.

So, with their permission, we took all of their videos—which represents thousands of hours of very high-quality human reasoning, like thought traces—and scraped them and made that available for imitation learning. We did try to do this internally. It turns out that I did a little bit too much of a good job of really creating a very difficult benchmark. So we're still trying to get that stuff working, and we'll publish it if we have some success.

I want to really sell the fact that this reasoning benchmark is different. Not only do you get something that's super grounded, where you know exactly if it's right or wrong, so you can do RL to your heart's content, but you can't generalize very easily. Each puzzle is deliberately designed by hand to have a new and unique twist on the rules, called a break-in, that you have to understand.

Right now, despite all the progress we've made, current AI models can't take that leap. They can't find these break-ins. They'll fall back to, “Okay, I'll try 4. I'll try 5. I'll try 6. I'll try 7,” right? The reasoning becomes really boring and nothing like what you see in the transcripts that we've open-sourced from this YouTube channel.

So I just want to put the challenge out there: this is a really difficult benchmark, and I think progress on this benchmark will really mean progress in AI generally.

Tim Scarfe

Could you reflect a bit? After watching this Cracking the Cryptic YouTube channel, how diverse were the patterns? Chris was saying to me, “Oh, you know, these guys, they go on Discord servers, they get these creative, crazy ideas,” and I'm obsessed.

Maybe I'm just being idealistic, but I love this idea of there being a deductive closure of knowledge, right? There's this big tree of reasoning, and we're all in possession of different parts of the tree to different depths. So the smarter and more knowledgeable you are, the deeper down the tree you go.

In this idealized form, there is one tree, and all knowledge originates or emanates from these abstract principles. We could, in principle, build reasoning engines that could just reason from first principles, and it might be computationally irreducible. So you have to perform all of the steps.

It feels like, because we're not in possession of the full tree, what we need to do is fish around. We fish around to find Lego blocks: “Oh, that's a good Lego block. I can apply that to this problem.” Maybe that's just what we need to do in AI for the time being: we need to acquire as much of the tree as possible. But could we just do it all the way down?

Llion Jones

Yeah, fascinating question. That tree is probably massive, right? And as a human is solving these puzzles, they're definitely learning in real time and discovering new parts of this tree. It's sort of a meta-task, right? Because it's not just reasoning; you're reasoning about the reasoning.

I don't think we have that in AI right now. If you watch the videos, they'll say something like, “Okay, this looks like a paraskew, or this is a set-theoretic problem, or maybe I should get my path tool out and trace this around.” Of course, the professionals do have this already massive collection of reasoning Lego blocks, as you say, in their heads. So they'll recognize, “Okay, that type of rule usually needs this kind of Lego block.”

It's fascinating to watch how good they are at just intuitively knowing where to look. Someone like me, who hasn't solved as many, needs to spend a lot of time looking around: “Okay, maybe I should try this, or maybe I should try this one.” But even they're not perfect.

You can watch them take a certain kind of reasoning and start building up: “Okay, maybe we should solve it like this,” and then go, “No, that doesn't disambiguate it enough,” and then backtrack and go down another path. Again, that's something that we do not see current AI doing when they're trying to solve this benchmark.

The tree is very big, and I guess the phylogenetic distance between many of these motifs in the tree is just so large. It's so difficult to jump between, and I think that's why, as a collective intelligence, we work so well together: we actually find ways to jump to different parts of the tree.

Tim Scarfe

Right?

Llion Jones

I think that's probably why the current state of the RL algorithms that we're trying to apply to this just isn't working. In order to learn how to get these breakthroughs—to understand what the nuanced reasoning is to solve these puzzles—you have to sample them. That's such a rare space; it's such a specific kind of reasoning that's required to get to the specific breakthrough that this kind of technique doesn't work, right?

There's definitely a feeling in the community like, “Okay, this is how you just solve things now. We have RL; yes, we can get these language models to do what we want.” It doesn't work for this data set.

Tim Scarfe

Guys, it's been an absolute honor having you on the show. Just before we go, are you hiring? We've got a great audience of ML engineers and scientists, and I think working for Sakana would be the dream job.

David Ha

That's very kind of you. Yes, we are definitely hiring, and as I said earlier in this interview, I honestly want to give people as much research freedom as possible. I'm willing to make that bet, right? I think things that are very interesting will come out of this. I think we've already seen plenty of interesting things coming out of this. So if you want to work on what you think is interesting and important, come to Japan.

Tim Scarfe

And Japan just happens to be the most civilized culture in the world. [laughter]

All right. It might be the opportunity of a lifetime, folks. So, yeah, get in touch, guys. Seriously, thank you so much. It's been an honor having you both on the show.

Llion Jones

Thank you very much.

Llion Jones

Thank you so much. It's been great.

Transformer 的共同发明者,如今转向 Continuous Thought Machines [Llion Jones / Luke Darlow] — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub