Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg:如何做成超级大单|Rabois、Halligan 与 Grady 的经验
- Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg 所说的性能平台期只存在于消费端。他说,消费场景的模型性能可能已经进入平台期,但这本身就是误称,因为“4已经够好了,我们不需要更多”;消费者需要的是上下文——连接日历和应用,而不是更强的推理能力。企业端仍会持续进步,代码生成的“斜率只会继续上升”,未来12个月不会平台期,而是“以极快速度变得好得多”。
- 如果 Anthropic 报价350、OpenAI报价800,他会“以两倍价格把两家都买下来”。不过,在看到OpenAI进一步押注消费端之前,他未必愿意以1.6买入;OpenAI在科技圈外的品牌“强得难以置信”。企业端会有多个赢家,消费端则是OpenAI对Google。AI能力的过剩程度“远高于任何人的讨论”:两家实验室“现在立刻停止开发”,AI对经济的渗透仍会“继续飙升”。
- 企业要再等3-5年,才会迎来大规模生产率提升。相关能力“两年前就已经存在”,但平均工作流需要从17个系统提取数据(“17个可能还是低估,有时像50个”),而让Agent跨越漫长尾部、端到端完成任务,难度极高。
- Harvey的ARR从7增至55,再增至190;Weinberg今年的目标“远高于”Harry Stebbings估算的约400-500。按8B美元估值计算,年末预期收入的20-25倍“基本合理”,100倍则“有点悬”。他把团队拿来对标约30亿美元收入的Anthropic,而不是法律AI同行;成功取决于市场拉力,而不只是执行力,“未来几年就会决定赢家和输家”。
- GRR的清算终将到来:投资人盯着净新增ARR,对流失睁一只眼闭一只眼;AI应用公司则约90%招聘前端工程师,用缺乏基础设施支撑的vibe-coded Demo获客。“等他们越过1亿美元ARR之后,这会成为一场巨大的清算。”Harvey的应对是:EPD团队约40%如今是资深基础设施工程师,去年处理了约5亿份文件。
- “B2B SaaS的价值即将变得天文数字般庞大”。关键不是Alex Rampell所说的“人质”,而是Palantir式的ROI绑定:年付约100万美元的律所,曾凭定制化Harvey方案拿下价值2000万美元的并购委托。预算已经从每年“数十亿美元”的专业服务支出中转移,而不是从技术预算中转移;今天付100万美元的客户,未来完全可能付1亿美元。
- 做交易有两条规则:多听少说,以及知道什么时候不要谈判。“很多做交易的人以为推动就是行动……其实所有交易都只是人在阅读”;当你比所有人更理解一件事的价值时,就应把原则性谈判放到一边,只拿到那一个关键点。融资时同理:优化合作伙伴,而不是价格;早期用小额支票换取信息权,完成明确里程碑,融资“12小时内就能完成”。
- 所谓“造王”大多是神话。绝大多数Harvey客户甚至不知道Sequoia或a16z是谁;对律师而言,EQT的品牌影响力可能高于硅谷。资本本身不会带来胜利——“1000亿美元如果投错地方,照样归零”;真正有效的渠道只有招聘,但被Logo吸引来的人“通常并不太在乎使命”。
1. 平台期只存在于消费端——代码生成的“斜率只会继续上升”
- Weinberg主动给出的核心判断是:“我认为消费场景的性能正在进入平台期。”但把这当成整个行业的故事是“误称”,因为“我们不需要它们在消费场景上变得更好……4已经够好了,我们已经完成了”。消费端真正需要的是上下文:连接日历、连接应用——“对他们而言,性能提升就是这些”。企业端“还会继续进步”,代码生成则绝不会进入平台期:“我认为它会以极快速度变得好得多”,从而释放“覆盖全世界”的生产率。
- 从实际模型市场看,Opus 4.5“改变了Anthropic的游戏规则”。Harvey会按使用场景,为每个任务匹配最佳模型组合;流向Opus 4.5的流量“显著”上升,但还没有占多数。Harvey投资了OpenAI,双方也不存在冲突:协议没有要求必须使用OpenAI模型,而应用层关于模型表现不佳之处的反馈,“对他们极其有价值”。
2. 两家实验室都愿意以双倍价格买——能力过剩“天文数字般庞大”
- Harry问到以350买入Anthropic、以800买入OpenAI时,Weinberg回答:“我会以两倍价格把两家都买下来。”至于以1.6买OpenAI,“可能还不够”,他还需要看到更多,包括更重视消费端、并“在这件事上加倍下注”,因为OpenAI在科技圈外的品牌“强得难以置信”。企业端“会有多个赢家……企业不会允许只有一个赢家”;消费端OpenAI可以拿下很大份额,Google是显而易见的竞争对手。
- 他认为行业没有意识到的是:“两家公司现在立刻停止开发,AI对经济的渗透仍会继续飙升。”AI能力的过剩“太高了,我认为远高于任何人的讨论”。
- 企业端兑现生产率的时间表是:“还要3到5年……才能看到大规模、大规模的生产率提升。”相关能力两年前就已经存在,真正的瓶颈在工作流基础设施:“他们要从大约17个不同系统里提取数据……17个可能还是低估,有时像50个”;而让Agent跨越这些长尾系统,从头到尾完成任务,“难度极高”。
3. 真正的生存威胁是产品速度——Harvey想成为行业操作系统
- 最让他担心的是“产品推进得够不够快……这是所有应用层公司的最大生存威胁”。他并不担心OpenAI或Anthropic直接攻击法律行业,而是担心模型不断进步,导致产品价值下降,除非“你的产品与企业GPT许可证能提供的能力之间存在巨大差距”。他每天都会思考这件事,而且“我比大多数人更看好这些实验室”。
- 他的公司建设周期是:产品市场匹配→公司市场匹配——“你是否建立了公司的结构……”——然后“你知道接下来最该回到什么吗?再次重做产品市场匹配”。疫情期间,他曾嘲笑那些跳进各种随机会议的创始人:“我和联合创始人当时想,哇,那些人根本没在工作”;如今他却非常敬佩他们:“他们造出了一台机器……我明白为什么他们是地球上最优秀的创始人之一。”在他看来,Klaviyo很可能是Andrew Bialecki作为上市公司CEO重新回到产品一线,正是这个时代对速度要求的“100%证明”。
- 未来12个月,Harvey要从“有了更好、没有也行的生产力软件”,走向“更接近行业几乎不可或缺的操作系统”。Harvey按Parker Conrad的说法,已经建立了一家复合型创业公司,但“还没有把这一切真正串起来”。他最看重的指标是:使用4条以上产品线的用户,DAU/MAU达到74%——“这已经是Slack级别”(Slack约为80);目前使用4条以上产品的人占比还低,但每个季度都在翻倍。
4. Legora、欧洲市场与4人完成的企业级部署
- 对于Legora声称Harvey抄袭共享空间功能,Weinberg直接否认:Harvey花了“6个月到接近1年”先打造银行级安全和权限体系,之后才开始做界面,因为无论是企业法务还是律所一侧发起多人协作,都会把门槛抬到“天文数字般高”。他认为这项说法之所以持续存在,是因为“如果你是市场第二名……以任何形式把自己和第一名联系起来”,就能获得免费媒体曝光。但他仍然尊重对方:“他们2023年在欧洲做得很好”,只比Harvey晚了大约6个月。
- 他真正的遗憾,是没有更早投资欧洲,原因纯粹是带宽不足。Harvey签下第一个客户时(字幕中的名字有误,可能是A&O Shearman),“我们4个人就在一套Airbnb里完成了4000人的企业级部署”;一个月后才加入第一名工程师,在那之前所有代码都是联合创始人Gabe写的。
- 欧洲市场的经验是要和当地地理与市场合作:“你不可能坐在旧金山完成这件事……你必须出差”;招聘周期也长得多——美国员工“字面意义上第二天就能入职”,欧洲则常有garden leave。因此公司计划在巴黎、都柏林等地设岗。至于欧洲人懒散的刻板印象,他并未有此体验:“英国律师工作极其卖力……律师就是纪律性极强、非常勤奋的人。”
5. 8B美元估值的算法与Anthropic基准
- 在经历了出色的2024年后,他对团队做的2025年开场讲话是:“我们去年表现不错,但我相当确定Anthropic现在的收入大约已经是30亿美元。”领导者的职责,是确保团队永远不会觉得自己已经赢了,因为现实是市场拉力巨大;“有时你的成功不只是执行力,也来自市场拉力”,而“未来几年就会决定赢家和输家”。
- 估值框架是年末收入乘以倍数:20-25倍“基本合理……大概吧”,100倍则“有点悬”(Harry说:“欢迎来到A轮,这就是为什么这个阶段不适合投资”)。Harvey的ARR从7增至55,再增至190;针对Harry估算的400-500,他说:“我们的目标远高于这个数字。”唯一让他觉得估值“高得令人不安”的一轮,是收入“肯定更低”时、估值达到1.5的C轮。
6. 融资:优化合作伙伴,而不是价格——以及那封改变一切的冷邮件
- 这套打法要提前6个月启动:让1-2名投资人以“几百万美元”入场,并拿到信息权;再约定3、6、9、12个月的里程碑。如果这些目标都兑现,VC就会信任你,而“真正的融资12小时内就能完成”。代价也很明确:“你就不是在优化价格……你要优化的是合作伙伴。”Harvey“可能本可以”拿到更高估值,但最终选择了信任的投资人。
- Harry通过Scale合伙人Rory O'Driscoll进一步印证了这一点:“一个人只要持续完成计划,就给他更多钱。”但他也承认,自己投资的170家公司里,“极少有人做到他们说过要做的事,极少有人完成计划”。
- 故事起点是2022年夏天:一封发给Sam Altman和Jason Kwon的冷邮件。他们抓取了r/legaladvice的问题,让自己的chain-of-thought产品运行在GPT-3上,再请房东-租客法律师给答案打分——100个答案中有86个“值得直接发出去”。邮件主题是:“你知道它处理法律问题已经这么好了吗?”2022年7月4日上午11点,他们向OpenAI高管层做了推介;种子轮只有OpenAI一家,Weinberg回忆,投前估值“大概400万美元”,最早的天使投资人是Sarah Guo和Elad Gil——“如果Pat在听,他一定得给Sarah一些功劳”。
- A轮期间,他们在48小时内见了约10家VC,大约一半转化为Term Sheet;当时他确实不知道这些机构中的任何一家是谁,只根据会议表现判断。最糟糕的一次,是一位合伙人“整个推介过程都在看手机……字面意义上完全没有和我们对视,真的一次都没有”。
7. “造王”大多是神话——VC判断对了时间,却经常判断错人
- 从一家垂直公司的内部视角看,反“造王”的理由很简单:“绝大多数我们的客户根本不知道Sequoia、A16Z或这些人是谁。”资本不会让你赢——“你有1000亿美元,如果全部投进错误的东西,照样归零”;品牌信任也并非只有头部硅谷机构才能提供:“像EQT这样的机构,实际上比硅谷更能给你这种信任”,因为律师认识私募股权机构。招聘是唯一真正有效的渠道,但因为投资人而加入的人“通常并不太在乎使命”;而使命很重要,因为所有这些公司内部“都是混乱……士气起起落落”。
- 复盘自己的董事会判断时,他承认VC在“什么时候”招聘高级管理者的问题上是对的,而他动作太慢——“这制造了本不该存在的竞争对手”。但在“招谁”上,VC经常错:“VC的问题有时在于他们是向上管理的……他们看到的是董事会会议”,因此擅长展示的人会被塑造成优秀高管。他凭外部观察形成的直觉,已经“相当多次”胜过VC的引荐。Harry也承认:“我给创始人建议该招谁时,通常总是错的。”
- 更深层的问题是:“人类非常不擅长判断其他人到底有多优秀……我们仍然过度关注一个人的履历。”他提到一条2022年末的推文:不理解AI的VC会“退回到看履历”。研究员尤其如此:真正优秀的人“就几百个,仅此而已”,不可能从简历里识别出来;你应该“问一群研究员,他们最尊敬谁……答案完全基于能力”。他认为研究员频繁跳槽,是因为实验室在研究员推动下改变方向:“这有点像诱导式转换。”
8. ARR超过1亿美元后的GRR清算
- 去看AI应用公司的LinkedIn,“大概90%都是前端工程师”,因为“vibe coding在前端上的效果远好于基础设施”。漂亮的Demo能带来客户,但随后架构会崩掉。Harvey亲身经历过这一点:2024年初,单个季度新增数万用户,拖慢了发版速度;如今公司的结构性修复是,EPD团队约40%由非常资深的基础设施工程师组成,来自Databricks等公司,去年处理了约5亿份文件。
- 他给创始人的建议是:“GRR很重要。”投资人“基本只看净新增ARR”,对流失睁一只眼闭一只眼;没有基础设施、只会快速签客户的公司,“会非常非常快地开始丢客户……等他们超过1亿美元ARR,这会成为一场巨大的清算”。Harry谈到Sierra式增长时也表示,从100增长到400,必须为每个客户履行的交付义务“非常非常多”,完全不同于消费级PLG模式。
- Microsoft和Salesforce是可参考的模板:从售前阶段的“鱼叉手”式销售,转向大规模投入售后服务,让NDR不断复利。因为如果你看好AI,留存比抢地盘更重要:“今天付你100万美元的客户,现实中完全可能在某个时候付你1亿美元。”他还修正了一个看法:大多数公司建设“其实仍然遵循相同规律”。他承认,自己有两年时间从未把AE人数、配额和爬坡周期与净新增ARR目标放在一起建模——“我是认真的……真的很尴尬”。“关于公司运行的这些核心物理定律……在AI时代并没有不同。”
9. 不是人质,而是ROI绑定:“B2B SaaS的价值即将变得天文数字般庞大”
- 针对Alex Rampell“我要的是有人质的公司,不是有客户的公司”,Weinberg提出了第三种状态:Palantir式的利益绑定——“你为客户创造的价值越多,获得的报酬就越高”。最典型的例子是律所:律所按小时收费,所以很多人说不能向它们销售软件;但Harvey有“很多律所客户通过在Harvey里定制开发某些东西,获得了新业务”,它们每年支付约100万美元,并凭此拿下价值2000万美元的并购委托。“这不是人质。”企业法务更简单:节省的时间就是省下的钱。至于按席位还是按消耗收费,他的客户群“完全可以接受”按消耗计费。
- 预算迁移已经发生:多家公司从“每年数十亿美元”的专业服务支出中支付Harvey,而不是从规模小得多的G&A技术预算中支付。企业内部大量工作本来就不是律所会做的事,而是替代性法律服务提供商层级的工作。目前收入约40%来自企业法务、60%来自律所,与律师实际所在的位置一致;他预计5年后仍会维持相同结构。
- 他不认为Harvey会减少初级律师的工作:“我不这么认为,我认为我们只会得到更多工作。”他的私募股权案例是:并购旺年意味着更多法律费用,但客户不再愿意为“修改NDA”付费,却会为AI风险、各国监管问题等新工作付费。核心框架是:“你应该把AI看成整个经济。”专业服务仍会以与GDP相同的速度增长,因为“经济将会爆发,这些公司的预期会疯狂上升”。
- 对于宏观空头提出的循环交易、美国借款和“欧洲是一座博物馆”等说法,他回应:“我不认为会发生在今年。”但他预计仍会出现波动——“会有更多类似DeepSeek时刻的事件”,自我强化式的恐慌会造成短期繁荣破裂;长期来看,“AI将彻底重塑经济的每个部分,这一点我非常坚定地相信”。
10. 做交易的规则、信任问题与运营文档
- 第一条规则是多听少说:“很多做交易的人以为推动就是行动……他们以为说得最多就掌控了交易。不是这样。”他的定义是:“所有交易都只是人在阅读,仅此而已,而且是大规模阅读。”第二条规则是知道什么时候不要谈判,前提是“你比所有其他人更了解某件事的价值”;此时要“把所有原则性的交易技巧都放到一边”,只拿到那个关键点,即使CFO和VC反对也一样。他在谈到Sam Altman是极其出色的交易者时用了绳子的比喻:每只手里有17根绳子——“你要擅长把其中一根绳子系好”,每系好一根,就能拉动更多东西。Microsoft赢得合作关系也是同样的方式:和所有人合作,而不是斤斤计较。
- 招聘上的对应原则是:“如果你想雇一个人,就按他想要的条件雇。”不要把75压到70,“不要来回拉扯,没关系”。Harry补充了Josh Kushner在投资上的类比:“如果你愿意少拿,就别做这笔交易。”想要10%却接受7%,意味着你从未真正相信这家公司会成为定义品类的公司。
- 他如今筛选的核心特质是主人翁意识——“人能不能承认自己的错误”。他举自己的例子:每15分钟清空一次Slack,不是怪癖,而是“我有信任问题……如果你持续存在信任问题,就不可能把一家好公司扩展到数百亿美元收入”。他拒绝招聘的,是那种只要自己得分最多、即使球队输掉冠军也无所谓的人。他承认自己误判过两件事:以为沟通能力差的人无法扩张公司,后来发现“他们学习起来会很容易”;以及他自己也掉进了履历陷阱。
- 他的运营文档是一份名单,每个人对应两个词。Keith Rabois(从未见过):持续承受压力——“公司陷入停滞的每一天,都是因为我没有某件真正让我感到压力的事”。此外,Weinberg描述自己每天清晨跑步,试图“摧毁自己”。Pat Grady:“持续不断地施加力量”——“如果一家公司失去了这一点,公司基本就结束了”。Brian Halligan:只有一个“不”——产品规划“应该像分手一样”,必须有几个真正出色的想法,而你要对它们说不。
I think the value of B2B SaaS is about to become astronomical. Do you think we're seeing a plateauing in performance across the different model providers?
I think that we're seeing a plateau in performance for consumer use cases. Probably what's going to happen is the economy is going to explode, and these companies are going to have crazy expectations for what they can do.
I think a lot of people in deals think that movement is action. No. The second piece is knowing when not to negotiate. This, I think, is actually really, really important. There are certain deals where you want one thing from the deal and nothing else matters. If you want to hire somebody, hire them for whatever they want and put them in the position that they want. If you can't tell if they're best in class, that's a separate problem, but don't go back and forth.
Were you nervous pitching to Malcolm Bender? You knew them coming in?
Yeah, definitely.
What existential threat today concerns you most? Ready to go?
Winston, dude, it is so good to finally meet in person. It's so great to have you in the studio. I've heard many great things for a while because it was Sarah Guo that found you first, before Pat, I heard.
Yeah, I know. If Pat's listening, he definitely needs to give some credit to Sarah here. Our first investor was OpenAI, and our first 2 angel investors were Sarah Guo and Elad Gil.
Dude, one, I love the way that under 30 seconds we've already done a sucker punch to Pat.
But two, I just want to start on something that shows a little bit about your character. It was a story that Pat told me. He said, “Ask him about running a mile—the time that he did it first and how that progressed, because it's very revealing of his character.” Can you tell me the story?
I played sports when I was in high school and then didn't as much when I was in college. When you start a startup, things get pretty stressful. I had a mentor who gave me advice: “Hey, stop lifting so many weights and start trying to run a mile.” I remember when I started running a mile, I think I was at 8 minutes or something. It was really, really bad; I was pretty out of shape.
1. What No One Understands About Enterprise AI Adoption
I basically had a goal to get up every single morning and just reduce my mile time as fast as possible. The way that I did it was, I'm going to run a 1-mile no matter what, and then just see if I can reduce the back end of the mile until I can get as fast as I possibly can. The outcome of that, which I think really helped—and something I'm actually trying to do more and more in my life—is that every morning when I wake up, I get up pretty early and just try to destroy myself and run as fast as I possibly can.
It reduces my stress for the rest of the day. I've found that, over time, a lot of company building is just making very good decisions. If you start your day off with something that is very challenging in a physical way, you have stress relief through the rest of your day. Your body has absorbed that stress.
I very much believe that in everything else, too. I try to do a stressful thing every week because I think a lot of it is stress tolerance over time.
Can I ask what decision you've made in your daily routine or life that has had the biggest positive impact? One for me is that I drink a liter of water when I wake up. It just makes me feel like I've accomplished something very quickly, and I'm hydrated fast.
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. What would yours be?
I think it's getting up early. It's helped a lot. I think also we're in 60 countries now, and so no matter what, I try to keep basically East Coast time. When I'm in San Francisco, I'll get up at 4:00 a.m. or 4:30 a.m.
2. 1 Thing Every Founder Needs to Do Everyday
What that allows you to do is focus before the stream of Slacks and the stream of emails come in. I think those couple of hours in the morning, especially when I can go to the gym and think about product and those things, have changed the trajectory of how I operate the company more than anything else. I do it when I travel, too.
What bad habit do you have that you continue to do?
One of the ones I have that I think was a good habit in the beginning of the company, but is now starting to get bad, is that I zero out Slack about every 15 minutes. I'm in almost every single Slack channel, and I read every single thing.
It was really good in the beginning of the company because if you do that constantly, every day all you have to do is catch up compared with what happened yesterday. It's really easy to make decisions. The problem with that is I've probably done it for too long.
As you scale, you actually have to focus more and more on what is the P0, right? I think I've done a little bit too much of still being in every single Slack channel and checking every little thing.
There was a time I was talking to someone from Sequoia, and they had been living with other founders during COVID. These are 2 very famous founders; I'm not going to say who they are. A lot of their routine was that they would just jump into random meetings at the company.
What they were doing was basically checking to see: How does this department do the sales call? How does this part of product create their PRDs and analyze their PRDs? How does this part of the company come up with OKRs or metrics?
I remember I left that dinner, and my co-founder and I were like, “Wow, those guys aren't working. That's so lazy,” and all this stuff. Now, when I think about those guys, I say, “Wow, they are incredible. I get why they're some of the best founders on Earth,” because they've created a machine where they have so many folks at the company who are doing a really good job that they spend the majority of their time actually moving the machine.
You go back to being able to say, “I can focus entirely on product. I can focus entirely on what the most important things at the company are.” That's really what I'm trying to do this year: transition from all those heroics to building a really well-run machine.
I think the really interesting part, actually, is that [likely Andrew Bialecki at Klaviyo] made the decision to go back to product as a public company CEO and bring someone else in. Is that just a testament to the times that we're in—the importance of speed and product centricity, do you think?
100%. I think it's also a testament to something else, which is that these companies are growing so much faster than they used to. You have to get through a couple of stages, basically. I see Stage 1 as product-market fit. Stage 2 is company-market fit. In other words, have you created the structures of your company that are the same as traditional B2B SaaS or whatever consumer SaaS you're doing? And what's different?
There are differences. Any VC who says that there are no differences at this point hopefully has changed their mind. There are differences, and it's different based on what vertical and which company you're trying to build, right? You have your product-market fit, then you have company-market fit.
And then do you know what you want to go right back to? Reinventing product-market fit again, right? It feels like there's a cycle of doing that.
For us, and me personally, our first couple of years were product-market fit. Last year was company-market fit. I'm back to product-market fit again. What I spend a lot of my time on is the direction of our company and our product specifically for the next 6 months, year, et cetera.
You're at $190 million of ARR, you posted yesterday, and you raised at $8 billion. Do you and Gabe sit and think, “Gosh, that's quite a lot. I'm worried about scaling into that”? Do you sit and think, “Gosh, we're undervalued”? How did you analyze that?
We—it was funny. I think it was our offsite in 2024. I remember we kicked off 2025, and the first thing I did was go up and say, “Hey, we had a good year, but I'm pretty sure Anthropic's at about $3 billion in revenue right now, right?”
My point is the entire market is massive right now. I don't mean just the legal AI market. The AI market is exploding, right? When you are a leader of a company like this, one of the biggest jobs that you have is to make sure that your team doesn't feel like they've already won, right?
The reality is that the market pull is massive. Sometimes your success isn't just your execution; it's the market pull. You have to benchmark yourself against other folks in the market—not just legal AI companies, but actually just AI adoption.
I also think that we're on an insanely compressed timeline. The winners and losers are going to be decided in the next couple of years in a lot of these spaces. You really have to, at all times, make sure that the company doesn't go, “Wow, I did a really good job”—chest bump, head pat—“we're done,” right? You have to instill this—
Yeah, well, Anthropic, you know, 10x, and they started at XYZ billions of revenue this year. $7 to $55, and then $55 to $190, say. And then you're going from $190 to—I'm a VC, so I can guess—but $400, $420, like 2, 2.5 times from there.
Our goal is much, much higher than that. I think we can do better than that this year.
Okay. So let’s say $500 million. And then I’m looking at that and I’m like, “Okay, then the $8 billion doesn’t feel too much.” Because the way that we think about it internally is: what’s end-of-year revenue, and then what’s the multiple on that end-of-year revenue? If it’s 20 to 25, it feels more reasonable. If it’s 100, it feels iffy.
Yeah, welcome to a Series A round. That’s what happens at Series A. That’s why it’s a bad place to be investing.
Okay, but you never got to a stage where you were like, “This valuation feels like we’re going to live into it. We’ve got to grow too much into it.” Which round felt the most uncomfortably high?
Uncomfortably high. Yeah, I think maybe the Series C felt very high.
And what was that?
I think it was $1.5 billion that we were valued at, and our revenue was definitely lower.
Lower.
I think maybe that was one of the ones that felt super high. The other ones haven’t.
Another thing, too, is that I’m very picky with investors, so I don’t spend tons of time fundraising. What I actually do is, there are a couple of investors that I’ve become decently close with, and when it’s time to fundraise, usually we get preempted, or I say, “Hey, I think it’s time to fundraise.” I reach out to literally 1 or 2 people.
And so, I plan my fundraises pretty far in advance. I’ll basically be like, “I know who I want to lead the next fundraise.” My point here is that, almost every single time, we probably could have gotten much higher valuations than we took. Instead, we chose the best investors—the ones that I trusted and personally wanted to work with.
What do you know now about fundraising that you think all founders should know?
Yeah, I think the main thing about fundraising is you should always think of it as: start it 6 months ahead of time, and you will do much less work than if you actually go out and do the process. What I mean by this—and I learned this from some other founders who are really good at this—is that they try to basically get folks to come in for a couple million dollars, just $1 or $2 million. You give them information rights, so you say, “Here, we’re going to tell you how we’re doing,” right? What you do with that is now they can check on the business, right?
The most important thing, at least that I have found—I think VCs care about this the most, and hopefully they do, because it would be a good thing if they do—is trusting that when founders say something’s going to happen, it’s going to happen.
I’ll tell you.
If you do that over enough time, hopefully VCs really trust you. Going back to that strategy, if you let them invest a little bit in the beginning and then you say, “Hey, in 3 months we’re going to do XYZ,” and then you say, “In 6 months we’re going to do XYZ,” and then in 9 months we’re going to do this, and at the end of the year this is what’s going to happen, if those things come true, they start to really trust you and believe you.
Then, when you go out to do that fundraising process, it can happen in 12 hours. You don’t need to make tons of materials. You don’t need to go out and do this massive process.
The problem with this is that you’re then not optimizing for price. That is assuming that you’re not trying to optimize price. What you’re trying to optimize is the partner. It’s much more targeted. You’re basically targeting a group of people and saying, “These are the people I want to work with, and I want to gain their trust, and then they’ll invest in me,” versus, “I’m going into the market, I’m doing this massive competitive process, and I want to maximize price.”
Totally get that. Rory O’Driscoll at Scale Venture Partners, who’s phenomenal—I love Rory, a dear friend of mine—says, “Harry, I’m not going to [__] it. I might do it again. Harry, when someone continuously hits plan, give them more money.”
3. Why VCs Suck at Helping Companies Hire?
That’s good. And then that’s it. It’s very simple. When people do what they said they would do, generally they will continue to do what they said they would do. I don’t know if you’re an angel in that many companies, but I’m an investor in 170. Very few do what they said they would do. Very few hit plan. So, I totally get that.
Do you actually believe that venture investors really move the needle?
I think it really depends on who you get. But I’ll give you an example of something that I haven’t trusted VCs as much with—and I think I’ve been right in some instances and wrong in others—and that’s hiring.
The area where I’ve been wrong the most is when to hire a more senior exec. The VCs have been right. My partners have been right. They’ve been right. I took too long to hire senior execs in some instances, and it caused us problems. It created competitors when there shouldn’t have been competitors, things like that, right?
The thing that I think they’ve been wrong about is who to hire. I think sometimes the problem that VCs have is they’re managed up, right? They don’t actually see inside a lot of these businesses. They see the board meetings, right? Sometimes the person who presents really well at all the board meetings or something like that, they think of as a really good executive, right? Then that person gets a reputation for being a really good executive.
I’m not from the tech world. I don’t know any of these backgrounds, right? I’ll sometimes get introduced to someone from a VC, and they’ll have an incredible background. I’ll be like, “That person didn’t seem very good.” It’s just my gut, right? I think I’ve been right in some of those instances, and I’ve bet on people who they sometimes said I shouldn’t have bet on, and they’ve turned out right.
When to hire execs, I’ve probably been wrong the majority of the time. Who to hire, I think I’ve actually been right a decent amount of times.
I think it’s actually a really smart distinction. I’m generally always wrong on who I suggest to my founders. Fair, in the benefit of hindsight. It’s like, “Nah, that wasn’t a good one.” Often, we just bring people who are actually too senior for the position.
That happens, too. Yeah, which is dangerous.
4. How to Get Sequoia and a16z Term Sheets
Totally get that. Dude, we kind of bonded over kingmaking, where I said some things about kingmaking and you said that’s not true. Why do you disagree with kingmaking as a theory?
Yeah, I’ll give you 1 example in our vertical. The vast majority of our customers don’t know who Sequoia, a16z, or any of these people even are, right? I think there are maybe a couple of ways that people think about kingmaking.
First, they think of kingmaking as providing you with more capital. More capital does not mean you run a better business. You could have as much capital in the world as you want. If you make the wrong product decisions, you’re just going to invest in all the wrong places, and it doesn’t matter. It’s the same as VC. You have $100 billion, and if you put it all into the wrong things, that still goes to zero, right? I don’t think capital makes folks win.
The area where kingmaking—or where people think kingmaking matters—is customers, where they basically say, “Hey, this has branded trust, and so that is good.” I think there is a little bit of legitimacy there, but it’s not like only the top 3 VCs give you that brand. The vast majority of VCs give you that brand. What’s actually interesting for us is someone like EQT actually gives you that more than Silicon Valley because they’re private equity, and a lot more lawyers know who that is, et cetera, right? So, I don’t really believe in those 2.
The third one might be the 1 area where it is helpful, and that’s just recruiting. Humans are very bad at judging how good other humans are. We’re really bad at it. We’re really bad at it. I can tell you a very clear reason why we’re bad at it: we still pay so much attention to someone’s résumé. We care so much about where they went to school, and this happens so much in technology. It happens a lot in tech.
The only other area where I know it happens an incredible amount is legal. Legal and tech are probably 2 of the main ones where prestige matters—where you went to school matters, how your grades were, who you worked under, things like that, right?
I think it does help you in the sense that if you get one of those brands, people assume that there’s maybe a higher chance of the company being successful. The reality is that might be the wrong person to hire in the first place, because the people who think about or go to a company because of the investors usually don’t care that much about the mission of the company.
My point with all of these things is there might be some short-term gains from perception mattering. In the long run, it doesn’t matter at all, because if you make all of the wrong decisions, nothing matters. It might help you with recruiting, though.
To what extent does caring about the mission of the company really matter? I know that sounds a little bit cold and mercenary of me, but if I’m a GTM leader and I’m head of sales and I’m a machine and I’m here to get the number from 5 to 35 in the year and I’ve done the playbook 3 times, I’m going to [__] do it and I’m going to get my equity ramped. Do you care?
So, I’ll give you a good example of this. How many times a day do you think something goes wrong at Harvey? Quite a few. Constantly. 24/7. How many times a day do you think we feel like there’s an existential threat, right? Or, like, the big model providers are going to release something and maybe we haven’t released something.
All the time. Startups are very difficult places to work. You think from the outside, “Oh, wow, they’re growing revenue so much, they’re the category leader, they have all these investors,” et cetera, et cetera, right? GRR is high, all these things, right? But internally, at all of these companies, it’s chaos.
It goes up and morale goes up and down, right? You face really difficult things, and then you have to figure out how to get through them. Being a missionary really does matter because the reality is, once you’re on the inside, the brand of the company and the success of the company matter less than when you’re on the outside.
It matters a lot on the outside because people looking in are like, “Oh my God, that’s the most successful. It’s super well-run.” All these things. Once you’re inside, your day-to-day could be crazy, and you could be thinking you’re not doing very well, right? So, I actually think it matters a lot. People just don’t realize that because they aren’t inside of these companies; they’re on the outside.
You said something about existential threats.
What existential threat today concerns you most?
Yeah, I think just moving fast enough on product. That is always, I think, the biggest existential threat for all the application-layer companies.
It’s not necessarily that Anthropic or OpenAI are going to put 50% of their resources into the legal vertical or tax vertical or anything like that tomorrow. But they’re just improving their products and models, and the value of your product is going to go down unless there’s a massive delta between what your product does and what you could get from an enterprise GPT license, right?
It’s just a constant existential threat: How do you make sure you get to escape velocity on product, so you have enough of a product moat for them not to run you over? I think about that daily.
When I’m thinking about competitors, the main thing I think about is that I’m more bullish on these model labs than most people, I think. A lot of people are. I’m very bullish. They have incredible talent, and I think more about what the frontier problems are that our customers have that they’re going to solve later.
Opus 4.5 changed the game for Anthropic and changed the game for the landscape. Did you see usage shift entirely to Anthropic with that?
Not entirely, but there definitely was a shift. We route based on the use case to the best combination of models, and our traffic to Opus 4.5 definitely went up significantly.
Yeah. Is there a conflict with OpenAI when they’re an investor in your company and you’re suddenly routing the majority to Anthropic?
We aren’t routing the majority yet, but even if we were, there’s no conflict. Basically, they want us to win, and they want us to use the best model, right?
There’s nothing in our agreement or our relationship or anything like that that says you have to use OpenAI models. If anything, getting feedback from application-layer companies on where their models aren’t doing as well, where their models perform super well, and where they need to improve is super valuable to them.
Do you think we’re seeing a plateau in performance across the different model providers?
I think that we’re seeing a plateau in performance for consumer use cases. The reason why I think this is a misnomer, or something that people actually shouldn’t pay attention to, is that we don’t need them to be better for consumer use cases. A lot of the consumer use cases—four was good, we’re done. You don’t need better reasoning to solve these problems.
What you need is different context. You need it to connect to your calendar. You need it to connect to all of the different apps that you use and things like that. That’s what an increase in performance is for them, right?
So, I think there might be a plateau on some of the consumer-facing side of things. On the enterprise side, I think things are going to keep going, and especially code generation. I don’t think we’re going to see a plateau in code generation. I think that’s going to get much better really, really fast.
What do you expect to see in code generation in the next 12 months?
I think the slope will only increase. I think that it will get better and better and better, and I think that will unlock a lot of productivity across the entire world.
When you look within Harvey, is everyone using Claude Code, not Cursor?
It’s a combination. In the UK, we have a game called “Shag, Marry, Kill.”
Yeah.
I’m not going to do that here because it’s wildly inappropriate. But if we were to do “buy and sell,” and you had Anthropic at $350 billion and OpenAI at $800 billion, which one would you buy and which one would you sell?
Yeah, I know. I know we talked about this. I’d buy them both at double.
You’d buy OpenAI at $1.6 trillion?
Maybe not quite $1.6 trillion. There are a couple of things I need to see from them before I would do $1.6 trillion.
What do you need to see from them before then?
I think the main thing with OpenAI is that they have so much consumer brand. It is so powerful, and especially outside of X and outside of our worlds, it is so unbelievably powerful.
I don’t come from the tech world, and all of my friends and all of my relationships before this were outside of tech, right? That brand power is incredibly powerful, and I think more focus on consumer and just tripling down on that is where I’d be the most bullish.
I think that on the enterprise side, there will be multiple winners. Enterprises don’t allow there to be 1 winner, right? So, no matter what, OpenAI is going to get some of the enterprise market, and Anthropic is going to get some of the enterprise market. But in the consumer market, I do think OpenAI has an opportunity to take a lot of this. Obviously, the main competitor there is going to be Google, right? But I think they both can be astronomically huge companies.
The other thing that I feel like folks don’t realize is that everything could pause. Both of those companies could stop developing things right now, and the amount of saturation of AI that would just happen to the economy would still skyrocket.
We’re so far from the ability of the models right now being integrated into daily life. People do not know how to use these systems. Consumers don’t, and businesses definitely don’t, right?
The capability overhang is so high. I think it’s higher than anyone is even talking about. It’s astronomical. If both companies literally just stopped shipping things, their revenues would still explode because there are going to be so many companies building on top of their models. There are going to be so many different parts of the economy that adopt these things that I think we’re still in the early days.
What do you think that timeline is? I know it’s a horrible question to ask, but is it a 2- to 3-year timeline? Is it a 10-year timeline? You work with some of these enterprises. They don’t speak the language that X and we generally do. What does that timeline actually look like?
I think 3 to 5 years until we see massive, massive productivity gains in enterprise. The capabilities are there already. The capabilities were there 2 years ago, right?
A lot of this is, if you think about just the average enterprise workflow, there are 17 different systems they’re pulling data from to get that workflow done. Literally, 17 might be on the low end. Sometimes it’s 50, right? Then you have 100 tabs open, and you’re opening all these different apps. They kind of connect to each other; they don’t really connect to each other, right?
The long tail on actually getting these systems and agents to do a task from start to finish is so difficult. The problem that you’re going to end up having is that you have these vertical companies building vertical agents, like us and Sierra, et cetera. But a lot of even the verticals connect to all of the other parts of the enterprise.
One thing that’s happening that’s interesting for us is that a lot of our revenue is starting to come from Global 2000 or Fortune 500 companies. We actually haven’t built many features for tax compliance and procurement, right?
What’s starting to happen is those departments are adopting Harvey even though we haven’t built features specifically for those departments. The reason why is that the legal department actually interacts with all of these different parts of the business. Legal documents are such a core part of a business that they interact with all of these different parts of the business, right?
We released a feature that’s multiplayer. It’s called Shared Spaces. At first, a lot of the impetus for doing it was that you want a large corporation, like Walmart or whatever, to work with their law firms in the same platform. That’s happening.
But actually, what’s starting to happen is that the legal team is working with the compliance department, is working with HR, is working with everything else, all in Harvey at the same time.
I heard from Legora that Shared Spaces was ripped from them. Is that fair?
No. We were working on multiplayer a long time ago.
One of the things that’s interesting about our company is that we started with the hardest customers. We did the same thing on the in-house side, too. We had bank customers a while ago, right?
The security and permissioning systems that you need to build for a bank are so much more in-depth, and the enterprise-readiness requirements are so much greater than for a lot of the other folks.
And the biggest problem with multiplayer, in the way that we’re doing it, is that we’re allowing the in-house side to kick it off, or the law firm side. To do that, the security and permissioning that you needed in place for both are astronomically high.
We were working on this for a very, very long time. We were going for six months to almost a year. We did all the permissioning and all of that stuff first before we did the UI on top.
Why do you think they continuously say that you ripped that product idea, then?
I think that if you’re number two in the market, one of the things that can get you a lot of attention is attaching yourself to number one in any way, shape, or form, right? You get free press from doing that type of thing. It’s a good way to basically jump onto the distribution that the other firm has.
Do you respect them?
Yes.
You hate each other in a way that—no, no, really, you do. I love it because I feel we got too kind in tech. It’s like, “Oh, we’re all friends.” We should be here to win. You know, Slootman. It’s war. Love him.
You guys really—it’s wonderful to see the animosity and hatred. But do you guys respect each other?
I definitely respect them. One of the things that they did really well—I think they did a great job in Europe. This was back in 2023. We’re not that far apart; I think they’re about 6 months after us or something. It’s not that big of a gap.
One of the things that I would have done differently in the beginning is invest more in Europe in 2023. A lot of our first customers were in Europe, right? Having folks on the ground here is really, really important, as is respecting the different cultures and how to productionize that and all of those things.
Why did you not, out of interest, come to Europe earlier?
It was just bandwidth. When we signed [likely A&O Shearman], which was our first customer, we had 4 people. We did a 4,000-person, enterprise-grade rollout with 4 people.
Was this when you were—I got told this from Pat—you were in an Airbnb?
Yeah, we were in an Airbnb. The engineer who had joined, who was our first engineer, Gabe, was basically coding everything before that. He had been there for, I think, a month, and then we onboarded a 4,000-person, very large-scale enterprise where security was incredibly important to the team. So it was just bandwidth. When you’re scaling that quickly, it’s harder.
Are you shitting yourself that the platform’s going to fall over?
Not anymore.
Not now, but back then in 2023, with one person in an Airbnb.
But actually, I think this is important. This is something that’s interesting. When I look at a lot of AI application-layer companies, if you go through their LinkedIn profiles and look at the engineers they’re hiring, it’s 90% front-end engineers.
Which is interesting to me. A lot of the reason is I think vibe coding works much better with front-end than it does for infra. A lot of what’s happening to AI companies, or is going to happen to them—and it happened to us in early 2024—is you do a bunch of front-end and make really pretty UIs and really nice demos, right? You use that to land all the customers, and now you have a lot of actual, active customers, but you haven’t invested in the architecture and infrastructure for hundreds of thousands or millions of customers using your product.
We kind of made that mistake in 2023. In the beginning of 2024, something that slowed down our shipping velocity was that we had added tens of thousands of users in the Q4 before that, and we didn’t quite have the infrastructure to support them.
Now, if you look at our team, almost 40% of our entire EPD organization is made up of very senior infrastructure engineers from Databricks or somewhere like that. It’s a long-term bet that, as you get these agentic systems processing tens of millions—for us, I think last year we did almost half a billion documents or something like that—you need the infrastructure to actually support it.
It’s not just about how you win the demo and how you win the deal, but how you actually create very scalable enterprise infrastructure for your product. I see a lot of AI application-layer companies not doing this.
If you were advising those founders, would you say, “Hey, really focus on prioritizing infra hiring earlier, so you’re able to fulfill what you say you will do”?
What I would tell them, actually, is that your GRR matters. One thing that a lot of investors in the AI space have not been paying attention to is GRR. They’ve basically just been looking at net-new ARR and being like, “Churn is fine because they’re going so fast that maybe they’ll pivot or they have some customers.”
5. Cold Emailing OpenAI and It Leading to a Term Sheet
I think that’s a huge mistake. You’re going to see a lot of companies in a lot of verticals go really, really fast to signing a bunch of customers because maybe there’s only one in the vertical and now there’s a second player, et cetera. But then they have to actually support all of those customers.
If you don’t have the infrastructure in place, and you make a bunch of promises up front and then all of that falls down, you’ll start losing company customers really, really fast. I see a lot of AI companies not focusing on this, and I think that’s going to be a huge reckoning for people once they get past 100 million ARR.
This is what I worry about: when you look at GRR figures and think about Sierra, the growth is amazing and it’s the best of the best. Jesus, take my money too. But I’m not questioning you; I’m like, gosh, what you now have to fulfill from a per-customer implementation service-provider aspect to go from 100 to 400 is a lot.
Yeah.
A lot. A lot a lot. It’s not like a plug-and-play. It’s much easier to go on the consumer side from 100 to 400 with a PLG motion.
Yes, I agree, and I think what that requires then is going back to what we were saying: how do you go from product-market fit, and then how do you get company-market fit? That’s actually about how you structure your company.
Part of that is different from how it used to be in the past. If you have long implementation cycles, one thing that’s going to end up happening, I think, is that a lot of these verticals are going to land at a big Fortune 1 or Fortune 2 or whatever. Their product is going to expand massively.
This is a really interesting thing about Microsoft and Salesforce. I don’t know how much you know about them, but they started in the beginning with the vast majority of their sellers in pre-sales, right? Spear fishermen. You have tons of that, right? Old-school spear fishermen.
They eventually migrated to having a lot of what they have be post-sales. A lot of their investment is actually in post-sales. The reason why is because their customers’ NDR goes up, up, up, up, up. They keep buying more things; they buy more compute, et cetera.
I think a lot of these enterprise companies should start thinking about their company that way. There’s some kind of a land grab right now, but really what’s going to matter is, if you are bullish on AI, you should be bullish on your product—the value of your product.
We are in day 1 of product development, right? It’s going to change astronomically. What’s more important than landing new customers and getting really high ARR is whether you can retain those customers, because that customer that pays you $1 million today could pay you $100 million at some point.
I think Databricks is a company that’s done an incredible job of this. I had Alex Rampell, who’s obviously at Andreessen, one of your investors, on the show recently, and he said something I loved. It sounds a bit awful, but I loved it. He said, “I want companies who have hostages, not customers.”
Okay? Again, as bad as that sounds, I did like it. In this space, are they hostages or customers? How easy is it for them to move?
Yeah, I mean, there’s a third one that now develops, which is that these AI products are so powerful, and I think over time the ROI is so high, that your ROI can become so massive that it’s less of a hostage and maybe closer to how Palantir thinks about things.
In other words, the more value that you create for the customer, the higher you get paid. I think more and more companies are going to start aligning to that.
I’ll do the law firm side and the in-house side. For law firms, they bill by the hour, so a lot of people are like, “How could you ever sell to them? There’s no way that this is going to work,” right?
Two things might happen. One, they might switch to fixed fees. Now we’re good to go, and efficiency is really good. I don’t think it’s going to happen that fast.
The second thing that’s actually happening is that we have so many law firm customers that have gained new business by building something custom in Harvey and saying, “We’ll do this M&A with this custom solution that we did in Harvey,” and they win that deal over another law firm.
That’s not a hostage. That’s a product that I’m paying maybe $1 million for a year that just earned me a deal worth $20 million. What is the ROI on that? Incredible.
On the in-house side, it’s even clearer. If you save time, you’re saving tons of money.
So I think that hostage thing can actually change to more like how Palantir thinks about it, which is: I think the value of B2B SaaS is about to become astronomical. If you can figure out how to align your product to that ROI, it's not a hostage; you're just completely aligned with your customer.
How do you align your product to ROI when your customer base doesn't want to pay for a consumption model, and they just want to pay for a seat model that they know and can rely on?
6. AI's Impact on Professional Services
Yeah, I think that's not, at least in our vertical, what I've seen. I think there are a lot of areas where we are going to start moving to consumption-based pricing, and I think, at least for us, our customer base would be completely fine with that.
There's this Irish guy whom I quote so often. He's brilliant. He should basically just replace me at this point. He's much smarter than me. But he always says that AI will be magnificent for us all if we see spend shift from human labor budgets to technology budgets. Will we see that shift here?
Already seeing it happen.
How does that happen?
Yeah, so there are a couple of companies that have basically said that the Harvey budget comes out of their spend on professional services, not out of their tech budget. The budget for professional services is in the billions a year, versus the tech budget for that G&A group, which is astronomically smaller. Sorry, the professional services budget is not the G&A talent that they have in their organization.
7. Future of Law Firms: Do They Die?
And I think that's what's really interesting about our business: a lot of the work that we're doing for a corporate is not the work that our law firm customers are doing. It's alternative legal service providers. It's this lower-end work.
What percentage of revenue is law firm versus external?
Right now—oh, you mean corporate versus law firm? I think it's around 40% of our revenue in in-house corporate and 60% is law firm, something like that.
Wow, 60% law firm, 40% Fortune 500 companies. Is that what you thought it would be?
I think something like that. If you just look at the breakdown of how many lawyers exist on Earth and how many of them are at law firms versus in-house, that's pretty much the same.
And in 5 years' time, what will that be?
I think it'll be similar. I think it'll be the same.
Got you. How will we see law firms change? Will we have a kind of cannibalization of juniors?
I don't think so. I think we'll just get more work.
Are you going to make my girlfriend unemployed?
No. I had a conversation with a pretty large private equity shop recently, and they were talking about how their year is going to be incredible. They think it's going to be a big M&A year. It's going to be great.
They were talking about how they think about legal fees. The way that they thought about legal fees is, the reality is, it's going to be a big year, and whenever we have a big year, we pay more in legal fees. That's just how it happens, right?
But there are certain things I don't want to pay for anymore. There are certain parts of the deal, et cetera, like marking up NDAs, whatever it is. I don't want to pay for that anymore. But there are all these new things that I'm paying law firms for, like AI risk: should you buy this company? Is there a problem in XYZ country with an act or something like that that's going to change it?
There are so many new pieces of work for professional services that my gut is that's not what's going to happen. In fact, I think what's going to happen is the professional services market is going to keep growing at the same rate as GDP.
One way to think about this is that most professional services are cyclical. If you have a really good year, professional services have a really good year. That's almost always how it works. Other than bankruptcy, and litigation is somewhat countercyclical. It depends on the area.
I think people think about this and they're like, "Oh, wow, AI is going to impact legal and it's going to just destroy all these jobs." The thing they aren't thinking about is that all of their customers are using AI to create more products. What happens when you create more products? You need more product legal advice. What happens when you're expanding into other countries faster? What do you need? Regulatory advice, right?
I think people are thinking about AI in all of these industries as a vacuum. The reality is, you should think about AI as the entire economy. What's going to happen? Probably what's going to happen is the economy is going to explode. These companies are going to have crazy expectations for what they can do, and the professional services providers are going to have to respond to that.
Do you think the economy is going to continue to explode? I can't believe I'm asking this question because it feels like the most basic question that [__] interviewers ask, but maybe I'm just a [__] interviewer at this stage, to be honest.
We have so much external concern outside of the AI sphere, which says, "The circular deals are [__] nuts. US borrowings have never been higher. Europe is a [__] museum that is completely unproductive." Beautiful. We are going to have a serious and material slowdown. Do you think that's wrong?
I don't think it'll be this year. I think there will be bumps. I definitely think we'll have more moments like the DeepSeek moment, where everyone freaks out.
I think we're close enough to an edge where, if enough people say that there's going to be a bust, it's pretty easy for one thing to happen, for everyone to freak out, and for there to be a bust. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Those are usually pretty short.
I think that we will have a bunch of short ones, but long term, AI is going to completely reshape every part of the economy. I very strongly believe that.
8. What Everyone Should Know That No One Tells You About Hiring in Europe
As you mentioned Europe, and we spoke a little bit about Europe's productivity there, you said you wish you'd been more proactive earlier on Europe, but there's only so much you can do, blah, blah, blah. What do you know now about building teams in Europe that you wish you'd known when you started?
I think it's similar in Europe to where it is in a lot of places, which is that you don't want to go into a country or a domain or anything like that and act like you know how to do something. You really need to partner with an industry, or you need to partner with a geography.
When I say we should have invested more in that, it's more like we didn't invest in it that much in 2023 and 2024. We invested tons last year, and we're investing even more this year, and the difference is pretty massive.
The difference in the quality of our team last year, the partnerships and things like that, and how our product is localized for each geo is just a huge difference. But you can't do this from sitting in San Francisco and thinking about how to do it. You've got to travel.
What's the biggest difference in talent between the US and Europe?
I think the biggest difference isn't a difference in talent. It just takes a long time to hire people, and so you have to think about it with a way longer time horizon.
Because of gardening leave?
Yeah, it's just really hard to hire people. That was interesting to me, or something that I wasn't used to, whereas in the States, you can hire someone and they start quite literally the next day sometimes. Or if they have to give 2 weeks' notice, they start exactly 2 weeks later.
That allows you to be a little bit more like, "I quickly need to hire this." Retroactively, I can fix a problem. In Europe, you have to plan out more.
We've done a lot of really big office openings. We just announced Paris and Dublin and a bunch of other ones. But you have to think about this stuff at a longer time horizon. You can't do it instantaneously.
Is the US trope of Europeans not working as hard fair?
That's not what I found, but I will say we interact—I interact mostly with lawyers. Lawyers have billable-hour targets, and at the end of the day, too, they are either at international firms or they're competing against international firms. So I have not found that at all. There are so many incredible, hard-working lawyers.
UK lawyers work pretty hard.
UK lawyers work insanely hard. It might be that I don't notice it as much because of the domain that we're in. They work the same across the globe. Lawyers are just incredibly disciplined, hard-working people.
In terms of people assessment, Pat told me that you're well-versed at understanding people. If I were to ask you for a trait that you look for in someone joining Harvey that's less obvious than the foundational integrity or high ambition or [__] that you normally get at—like, I look for obsessed psychopaths—
That's a good one. You definitely need to be obsessed.
What would yours be?
Obsession is definitely very important, but the one that I look for right now a lot is ownership. It's really, really important.
There are a bunch of different ways that you can assess this, but over time, you start to be able to read if someone actually can take ownership over something or not. The reason this becomes really important is that as you scale as a company, it becomes really hard to figure out where a problem is stemming from.
It becomes hard because this is how it ends up going: It used to be that I knew every single thing that was going on in a company, and I could just be like, “Hey, that’s where the problem is. I’m going to unblock that,” right? Now we’re getting to the point where I know most of what’s going on at the company, but sometimes something is so low down that I don’t know what the problem is. If I ask 5 people, they’ll all do this. It’s like the Spider-Man meme, right? And what I have found is—
That’s like bad deals in venture firms. Who did the deal?
Yeah, and it’s just like—it’s all over the place.
Yeah, exactly. It was Johnny. He left.
And I don’t know. I have found that there are a lot of people in tech who have done a really good job managing up. They have ridden a wave of their team’s success without being successful themselves. So, the thing that I look for a lot is: can people admit their mistakes? To me, it is so obvious when someone is actually admitting mistakes versus saying that one of the biggest things they’ve done wrong is actually something that’s really great, right?
Let’s go back to something you said earlier, when you said some of the things are bad habits that you’re trying to improve—
Yeah, yeah.
And you said checking Slack too much.
Right, right.
That, I think, is a good example. If I’d interviewed myself and I saw that as a question, the way that I answered it, the way that I would push on this is, I would say, “Why do you do that?” Why do you do that? And my genuine answer to that would be, “I have trust issues.” It is hard for me to trust that somebody else is going to handle that problem.
And now, all of a sudden, it actually is ownership. That is an actual problem of being a leader. You cannot scale a really good company and get to tens of billions of revenue if you have constant trust issues and you can’t trust other leadership, right?
9. I Have Massive Trust Issues…
Why do you think that comes from? I have trust issues because I found that generally, when relationships break down, it always comes down to them extorting me for money.
[laughter]
Great. It’s true. Yeah. I think my trust issues—I think part of it is it’s hard to tell whether it’s nature or nurture, right? But I think that I definitely had some problems with authority when I was younger. I had a not-the-normal-Silicon-Valley kind of background and upbringing. Because of that, I really went out on my own at a pretty young age and was pretty independent.
I think that one thing that you have to learn when you’re leading a company is that you are a leader and a partner to the rest of your team. It’s not just you. I am not Harvey. Harvey is not me. It’s a group of people that are building this company, right?
And I think that sometimes what founders can end up doing is they can start basically saying, “I want to be number 1.” I think of this as a sports team. There are people I know who don’t care about winning the championship. They want to be the person who scored the most points, and they’re okay with losing the championship as long as they’re the one who scores the most points.
Those are the exact type of people that I do not want to work with. I want to work with people who do care about how many points they’ve scored, but they care about that because they helped win the game, right? I think that’s a huge problem in tech: we have too many people where it’s me, me, me, me, me, and not company, company, company.
So, God, I think the US is just full of logo chasers. There’s a lot of that. You guys just love to work at a hot company. It’s the hot-company hopper, I call it. Whereas they just go 2 years, 2 years, 2 years, 2 years, and it’s like they’re doing venture portfolios with company equity.
Yeah, and it’s just like—
I was about to say VCs and things.
And I sit in these operator groups, and they’re like, “Ooh, I hear Clay’s really hot.” Or, “Ooh, I hear Notion’s really hot.” And they just jump. I think the promiscuity of American operators is incredible.
But, but, but, look at—
Brits are too negative with, “That’s crap.”
Don’t be a dick.
[laughter]
Yeah, I think this also—I forgot who tweeted this. I don’t remember who it was, but this was at the end of 2022, right after the ChatGPT launch. Someone—I forget which VC did this, so sorry for not giving credit to them—basically tweeted, “My prediction is what’s going to happen is a lot of VCs, because they don’t understand the AI ecosystem, are going to revert back to looking at resumes because they don’t understand.”
This is what people do when there are situations of chaos and folks don’t know what’s going on: the safest thing is to go look at other social signals to make decisions instead of using your own gut. I think that’s happening a lot in AI, and hopefully, as the markets mature, this stops happening. But there’s a lot of, “I don’t really understand this, and so what I’m going to do is look at the resume, or look at a logo, or look at that, because that seems like a safe bet.”
How many truly great researchers do you think there are?
Hundreds, and that’s it.
How do you know a good researcher from a resume?
I don’t think you can. That, I think, is actually a pretty big disconnect. The researcher community knows. This is a huge disconnect between VCs, I think, and the researcher community.
So what would you advise me investing?
What I would do is use the researchers to pinpoint who the best researcher is. In other words, if you ask a bunch of the researchers—not other VCs—who they respect the most, they have such a tight-knit community, and it’s all merit-based.
I’ll tell you a group of people who do not manage up: AI researchers. That is not what they do at all, for better or for worse. Because of that, if you ask that community who the best folks are, they will triangulate for you and help you find them. Usually, it’s not the loudest. They aren’t necessarily the most famous, et cetera. It’s not like that.
How do you assess the promiscuity of AI researchers? I mean, I hear poor old Thinking Machines—how alone is Mira Murati now? How do you assess that? Is that just a sign of the very brilliant times?
Yeah, I think there’s a combination of things. The reality is that what researchers care about the most is working on really hard and interesting problems. I don’t say that as bullshit. I think that sometimes, to your point about people just wanting to join hot companies, a lot of tech is people just wanting to join hot companies, right? Researchers really genuinely do care about pushing research forward.
What ends up happening sometimes is the leaders at some of these companies change the direction of the company, and the researchers are no longer interested in that direction. That happens a lot at these big labs. They’re making multiple bets in multiple places, and what ends up happening is people say, “Ah, this isn’t what I signed up for.” It’s kind of like a bait and switch, and they go to something else.
And, by the way, this has nothing to do with Thinking Machines. I’m just saying this is what’s happening, I think, at all of these labs. You go to work at Meta, you go to work at OpenAI, you go to work at Anthropic, and you think you’re going to work on something, and then you end up not. They’re in insanely high demand. They’re able to pick what projects they want to go work on.
How bad is the war for talent? You’re in the midst of it.
Yeah, it’s incredibly high. One thing to bring up is that, over time, we have this interesting thing where a lot of the AI companies—application-layer companies, including ourselves—in the beginning were like wrappers, right?
What’s going to happen over time is these companies are going to do 2 things. One, a lot of the core software that they build isn’t even going to be AI-related. It’s just core software building, and that’s actually going to be much more differentiated.
The second thing that’s going to happen is that none of these companies have access to proprietary data until very recently, right? A lot of what we’re looking at is: how do you actually create custom solutions for a large enterprise? Those are AI problems again, right? So now we’re all the way back to AI actually mattering.
10. Biggest Lessons on Effective Deal-Making
I think what we’re going to see is that the main problem—a lot of these companies haven’t hired any AI talent. A lot of what they’ve done is the model is basically the entire product. As these companies scale and have to create more differentiated products, I think having AI talent is going to matter again. We’re just now getting to the size of the company where we can hire the people that we need to do a lot of that frontier work.
We talked about assessing people’s skills in terms of the talent there. We talked about your lack of trust and trust issues, which was another one that—[laughter]—I think it was Pat who told me. I put one of your investors—I’m going to throw him under the bus—I think he’s perfect. Sorry, Pat. Pat did also say that you’re an excellent deal guy.
Mhm.
I wanted to unpack that. What’s your biggest advice on how to get the best deal and deal-making?
Maybe 2 pieces of advice. One is: listen more than you speak. It’s very, very dumb, but it’s true. I think a lot of people in deals think that movement is action. They think that movement is progressing the deal forward, and they think that if they talk the most, they’re in control of the deal. That’s not true.
In the same way that, in conversations, just because someone isn’t participating in that conversation doesn’t mean that they aren’t listening. It doesn’t mean that they have the upper hand or something like that. I think listening is really important, and I see a lot of folks think of deal-making as chest forward: if I’m the loudest and I’m saying the most. The reality is that all deal-making is just people reading. That’s it.
It’s people reading at scale. It’s reading a 1-on-1 conversation, then reading groups of people, then reading entire verticals of people, et cetera, and figuring out what they want. The second piece is knowing when not to negotiate. This, I think, is actually really, really important, and the best deal-makers I know are very good at this.
There are certain deals where you want 1 thing from the deal, and nothing else matters. This only works when you understand the value of something more than everyone else does. If you understand the value of something more than everyone else does, throw all of your principled deal-making aside. You’re supposed to negotiate X and then Y, and then it’ll be 50% in between, and all of that—that’s all [expletive]. Throw that aside and get the thing that you know is more valuable than anybody else does done.
I know a lot of people who are the best deal-makers I know—the best—and they know that very well. A lot of what you’re doing, I think, and I think Sam Altman is incredible at this, is holding multiple ropes. You have 17 ropes in this hand, 17 ropes in this hand, you’re grabbing all these ropes. At some point you’re going to get pulled apart because it’s too much pressure and you’re going to lose. What you do is get good at tying off one of the ropes. Then that pressure’s gone and you have one tied. Then you tie another one and you tie another one and you tie another one. Tying those ropes allows you to pull more ropes. That’s a lot of how I think about deal-making. Another company that has done an incredible job of this is Microsoft. They’ve created this partnership ecosystem. A lot of people have given them flak: Why do you let people do XYZ partnership? Why do you let people build on this? They’re just going to take it. It’s very clear that Microsoft has actually won in a lot of areas because they’ve decided to partner with kind of everyone instead of saying, “Ah, no, brass tacks. We’re going to be very tough on this.”
I think one actually also is when you hire people and they say that they want $75,000. So often I meet founders and they’re like, “Ah, but I got them down to $70,000.” And I’m like, “Give them $75,000. Day 1 they start, they feel valued.”
With hiring, this is a huge mistake that people make. Massive mistake. If you want to hire somebody, hire them for whatever they want to be hired for, and put them in the position that they want. If they’re best in class—if you can’t tell whether they’re best in class, that’s a separate problem—but don’t go back and forth. It doesn’t matter.
One of the most valuable bits of advice Josh Kushner actually gave me—I love him—is that if you’re willing to take less, don’t do the deal. Imagine I’m a VC and it’s like, “I want 10%,” and you’re like, “I can only give you 7%.” I’m like, “I’m actually fine with 7%.” Well, then you don’t believe in that company. That’s not going to be a legendary, category-defining company.
100%. Agreed. You said something about people and reading people in a deal. When did you most misread someone, and how did that shape your mindset?
I think one of the things that I’ve done wrong in the past is that I thought someone couldn’t scale because they had bad communication skills. I misread that, and I didn’t realize how easy it would be for them to learn how to do it.
I think that sometimes, because I do a lot of in-person interviews and a lot of those things, I end up making the mistake of reading too much on the surface and not going deep enough. I think I’ve gotten better at it, but that’s one of the things that I’ve done with hiring.
I’ve fallen for the résumé trap, too. I’ve definitely fallen for it, and I think that’s a huge mistake.
You mentioned OpenAI and Sam as the deal-maker as well in this different kind of area. I heard that you cold-called Sam in the summer of 2022. Can you tell me about that before we do a quick-fire round?
Yeah, so it wasn’t a cold call. We cold-emailed them. We cold-emailed Sam Altman and Jason Kwon.
What we’d basically done was gone on r/legaladvice, which is basically a subreddit for asking real questions. We grabbed a bunch of those questions, ran a chain-of-thought prompt that we had basically built on top of it, and gave it to a bunch of landlord-tenant attorneys. Then we basically said, “Look at these questions and tell me if you would send the answer.”
We didn’t say anything about AI to the consumer who asked the question. For 86 out of 100 questions, the attorneys said they would send the answer. We cobbled all that together and sent a cold email to Sam Altman and Jason Kwon.
The idea was basically, “Hey, did you guys know that, at this point, it was GPT-3 and the API was public? I think at the end of 2021 or beginning of 2022 they had an API. Did you know it was this good at legal?” That was it.
The subject line of the email was basically, “Did you know it was this good at legal?” We met them pretty recently after that.
How did that go?
It went well. We had a call with Jason first and talked about our strategy as a company and what we would build. Then we had a final pitch to the rest of the OpenAI C-suite, actually, on the morning of July 4, 2022. It was around 11:00 a.m. on July 4, and we did a pitch to the rest of the company.
Do you get nervous before these? When you go into Sequoia and pitch the partnership, that’s nerve-racking.
Yes. I had a weird thing where I didn’t know who any of these guys were.
It’s so funny because, for me as a venture nerd, I’m like, “Holy shit, I know everything about everyone.”
Now I do, but back then I didn’t know anything. I didn’t even have friends in tech. When we did our seed, we didn’t go to anybody else; it was just OpenAI.
How much did they invest, and for how much?
The actual terms, I don’t remember what the post-money actually was, but the pre-investment was like $4 million or something like that.
VC meetings: how many term sheets did you get?
For that, I don’t remember. It was, I think, like half or something like that.
Which was the worst—the worst term sheet or the worst meeting?
Worst meeting.
Oh, I’m not going to say that publicly. The worst one?
There was one.
Why was it bad? Just tell me that.
There was one where the person was quite literally on their phone. It was a Zoom, and they were on the phone the entire time during the pitch. They didn’t even make eye contact—literally zero. They were just taking notes.
Yeah, they were taking notes.
No, I think they were texting a friend: “Can’t believe this knob is still talking about legal.”
Here?
That was the worst one.
11. Quick Fire Round
That is absolutely amazing. Listen, I want to move into a quick-fire round. What have you changed your mind on in the last 12 months?
I said earlier that a lot of company-building has changed. I actually think a lot of it remains the same. There are a lot of core first principles of scaling a company that I’m much more focused on now, which I wasn’t focused on in the beginning. I’ll give you the dumbest example ever.
For the first 2 years of the company, when I was doing revenue projections, I never—and this is embarrassing, really embarrassing—I never thought, “If I want to hit this amount of net new ARR, I need to hire this many AEs at this quota, and this is how long it takes to ramp them. So I need to have hired them by this point before I do that.” I’m dead serious. I never even thought about that, right?
These are really core laws of physics about companies that remain the same. There’s no difference in AI. Maybe what I’ve learned in the past 18 months—the second half of the company, basically—is how much of the company building is actually the same. I probably should have listened to people a little bit more about that.
You have Sequoia and a16z on the cap table. How are they different to work with? I’m not asking whether one is better or worse, but how would you say they’re different to work with?
I think there’s obviously a difference in scale, right? a16z is just a lot, a lot bigger. I would say that a16z is also louder, right? They’re a little bit more in these other regions and other areas and things like that, whereas Sequoia is just a different style. It’s closer; there aren’t as many partners and things like that.
Were you nervous pitching to Marc and Ben? You knew them coming in.
Yeah, definitely. I’ve always been nervous. One thing, too—I think I said this earlier—I think Keith Rabois says this, who I’ve actually never met in person.
There are a couple of people I have a list of, actually, at the top of my operating doc. I have a list of people, and they all have 2 words next to them: the thing that I’ve learned from them or something like that. I’ve never actually met Keith Rabois in person, and I think he’s an investor in one of our slight competitors.
Spellbook. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
We don’t compete with them tons, but in some degrees we do. Anyway, one of the things I think he was talking about at some point is how important it is that you should be constantly stressed and do things that make you stressed every day. I strongly agree with that. I really agree with that.
I think the times that I’ve stagnated, or the company has stagnated, are when I don’t have something every day that’s really stressful. The weeks that I do the best work, or feel like I did the best work, are when every single night before I go to bed I’m like, “Oh, shit. Tomorrow is going to be—there are so many things. Everything needs to go right. I’m really stressed.” It’s massively compounding for you as an individual to just put yourself through that stress.
I freaking love it. I tweeted, “Hey, if you are ambitious and you want to learn about working in AI applications, there’s no better place to work than Harvey.” Keith Rabois. Hmm.
[Laughter] No. I mean, it’s interesting. I think Pat also has this, too, and all of my VCs do. In particular, he really thinks of constant, relentless application of force—that’s what he says—and that’s actually what I have next to his name.
That’s incredibly important. If you lose that as a company, the company is pretty much over, right? You as a founder need to constantly, constantly be applying force, and it starts with applying force to yourself. If you aren’t applying force to yourself, you don’t have that ownership mentality, and you’ll start to get weak. I think that will trickle down through the rest of the company.
Who are a couple of other people on that list, and what do you have in mind as to them?
[Laughter] Brian Halligan’s on there, and his is “no.” It’s just the word “no.” One of the things he’s been incredibly influential and helpful to me with is saying no to things. It’s a huge, huge problem as you scale as a founder: figuring out how to actually block off time for yourself and say, “No, this is my priority. I’m saying no to everything else,” right?
It’s the same with product. This is also probably one of the main things that I’ve hopefully improved on. I used to, every quarter, just be like, “There’s a P0, and then also there’s a P00, and then there’s this and this and this,” right?
I’ve started to be a lot more disciplined, and I try to be disciplined with my team. Every time we do product planning, something should hurt. It should feel like a breakup. There have to be a couple of really good ideas that you say no to. It’s the same across the entire company. Brian Halligan has been really helpful with teaching me how to do that for myself and how to do it with the rest of the company.
I always go to Jony Ive, who says that prioritization is saying no to even really good ideas.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I think that’s right. It should feel painful. It really should. I didn’t do that in the beginning. I was like, “We’ll just do everything, whatever.”
Having said that, I do think you can do more, and I think you can be very ambitious. But you do have to strike a balance between the two.
You can only take one investor with you to your next company. Which did you take?
I’m definitely not answering that question.
There are several hundred million dollars on the line at this point. I’m not that stupid. How did you ruin the relationship?
I went on Harry’s pod and I really pissed him off.
That’s super funny. Who do you not have on your board who you’d love to have on the board?
I’ve always respected Founders Fund. I’ve always really respected them. I’ve respected the hell out of their companies, too, and a lot of their founders. I just respect them a lot, and we have never worked with them.
In a year’s time, where is Harvey then? You did this great tweet yesterday, and it was like 190 million ARR. I can’t remember the customer base, and I can’t remember the other stats. Such a VC. It’s a revenue number—great, that’s the take. What does that tweet say in 12 months?
I mean, we obviously have revenue targets and things like that. But what I want to switch from is a productivity software that is a nice-to-have to something closer to an operating system that is pretty much crucial to the industry, right?
We built a lot of different features across the board. In Parker Conrad’s voice, we very much built a compound startup. We haven’t tied it all together yet. We’ve done a really good job of creating all the pieces, but we haven’t tied them together.
Maybe an interesting stat on this is our DAU over MAU for people who use 4-plus product lines: it’s 74%. That’s Slack level, right? Slack was like 80 or something like that. It’s incredibly high. The percentage of people who have used 4-plus products is very low, and it’s doubling every quarter.
What I really care about next year is: Can we make this infrastructure? Can we make it so this is a core piece of a lawyer’s workday, and they live in it?
It’s a move from product to platform.
It’s 100% that. I think we’ve done a good job of creating all the features, but now I want to combine all of them together so we can get to that 75% DAU over MAU. That is how you really show that you’ve created something that’s integral to the industry.
Dude, it’s such a pleasure to have you on the show. Thank you so much for doing it in person. It made such a difference, and you’ve been incredibly amenable to my pressing.
[Laughter] Well, thank you so much for having me, man.