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20VC · · 67 分钟

20VC:没有10亿美元基金,种子轮投资就死了吗?| 当公司可能成为1万亿美元退出时,持股和价格还重要吗?| AI收入数字是真的吗?需要警惕什么?——与Venky Ganesan、Menlo Ventures对话

Harry StebbingsVenky Ganesan

创投/私募AI与软件投资
播客 ↗
TL;DR
  • Venky Ganesan 对过热 AI 市场的答案是继续下场,但改变仓位大小,而不是假装任何人都能精准判断拐点。 1996–97年退出互联网泡沫投资的机构错过了1997–99年,并在2000年重新入场;如今,每一笔种子轮支票都是“看它是否成为异类”的一张期权,只有等收入和可量化证据出现后才加大集中度。“一个点不是一条线。”

  • 种子轮投资仍然存在,但核心 AI“新实验室”和1000万–2000万美元的应用层融资轮,让传统小基金的组合构建变得异常艰难。 Menlo会用部分种子轮支票买一张牌桌席位,因此对初始估值“有些无所谓”,真正的资本投入预计会在赢家显露后发生。对那些需要配置100万–300万美元的3000万–1亿美元基金而言,高位牌桌极其残酷——尽管顶尖管理人仍能胜出。

  • AI收入必须按真实业务来承保,不能把它当成融资材料直接接受。 Harry指出,有些签约“年度”收入既没有实际发生,也不是真正的年度收入;还有些run rate是从销售最佳日外推出来的。Venky的规则是:“只要某个指标由投资人衡量并被投资人高度重视,它就一定会被操纵。”关键区别在于,创始人优化的是终局价值,还是下一轮加价。

  • 价格和持股都重要,但脱离结果规模、证据和投资渠道,二者都无法判断。 Venky宁愿持有一家万亿美元公司的2%,也不愿持有一家1亿美元公司的20%;Menlo持有Anthropic不到2%,却通过持续加码,让Anthropic的价值贡献达到Menlo一只基金的20%。一旦异类已经显而易见,“那里就没有alpha了”——游戏变成渠道和仓位大小——因此早期持股仍然有价值。

  • 结果规模的膨胀不能掩盖糟糕的组合数学,因为时间和稀释会共同侵蚀投资人回报。 Menlo测算,一笔种子轮仓位可能从10%降至退出时约3.5%–4%,也就是约60%的稀释;增长缓慢的公司还会拖累IRR,并需要更多融资和更大的期权池。由于AI公司要向Nvidia、超大规模云厂商和基础模型支付经济“税”,Venky认为,私募风投必须跑赢公开市场可获得的“Mag Seven”约1000个基点,才能覆盖管理费、carry和流动性折价。

  • 战略收购带来的“下行保护”很危险,因为买方没有义务保护股权结构。 Venky把今天对战略收购的信心与互联网泡沫时期收购尚无产品公司的做法相比较,并追问:既然买方可以直接雇走创始人,为什么还要尊重股权表?当回报达到30–50倍时,他倾向于卖出约10%–15%锁定收益,从而让剩余仓位可以持有更久;但只要仍与创始人保持一致,Menlo通常不会卖光全部仓位。

  • AI的资本密集度可以支持更快部署,但不能废除基金年份风险。 Menlo Eight在2000–01年大约10个月内完成投资,至今仍是公司唯一一只没有返还资本的基金;其15亿美元的Menlo Nine和12亿美元的Menlo Ten也低于预期,并导致LP离开。LP如今要求DPI,但其中许多人同样需要AI敞口,以对冲那些重仓软件、正受到AI威胁的私募股权组合。

  • Venky所称的持久优势,是机构层面的谦逊:去掉自我、做好资本配置,然后继续奔跑。 只要能为LP赚钱,他愿意接受更小的配置或价格更高的轮次——“其余都是噪音”;他建议LP通过访谈创始人来评估前方道路,而不是只研究滞后5–7年的业绩。他最后的原则是:“只要一个人不在乎功劳归谁,他能做到的事情就没有上限。”

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 你得下场,但每笔种子轮支票都只是一张期权

  • Harry的挑衅是:当团队开始说“我们找不到1亿美元以下的任何项目”时,风投已经不像风投了——这里说的不是估值,而是融资轮规模。Venky承认,核心AI实验室可能寻求数十亿美元融资,也承认当下“非常迷茫、混乱”,但他提醒:“一个点不是一条线”(A dot is not a line)。

  • 市场择时的教训来自一批曾在互联网泡沫早期赚钱、在1996–97年离场、错过1997–99年、又在2000年重新入场的机构。LP聘请这些机构,本来就是希望它们持续站在技术前沿。Venky的结论是:继续参与,但调整筛选标准、组合构成和仓位大小。

  • 他的组合模型把每笔种子轮投资视为“一笔期权投注”。基金需要有足够多次击球机会,才能碰到异类;只有当收入和其他可量化证据支持这一判断时,才应该加大仓位。在证据出现前就集中下注,与沿着证据逐步加码一个已经被验证的赢家,是两种实质不同的风险。

  • AI“新实验室”的种子轮尤其难做;即便是应用层公司,也越来越多地融资1000万–2000万美元,而不是过去的300万–500万美元。大型平台进一步放大了这种扭曲:Menlo有时是在“给自己买一张牌桌席位”,对种子轮估值相对无所谓,因为它真正想要的是日后大额投资的权利。

2. 当投资人奖励表演,指标就变成了戏剧

  • Harry的反驳值得保留:证据本身已经变得模糊。签约年度收入可能尚未上线,也未必真的是年度收入;收入run rate则可能把公司销售最佳日的收入乘以365。Venky认同背后的机制:任何受到投资人高度奖励的指标,“一定会被操纵”。

  • SaaS时代的典型指标是净收入留存率。一笔100美元的采购订单可以显示100%的留存;如果初始订单是10美元,一周后又增加50美元,展示出来的扩张率就会变成500%。除了指标选择,Venky还提到“bezzle”——他不确定这个词是谁最早提出——用来提醒人们,繁荣期也会掩盖创造性会计。

  • 造王者效应就是索罗斯式的反身性:真实增长带来加价;加价带来资本、曝光和人才;这些投入又加速增长。模仿者随后把加价误认为增长的原因,投资人则假定一次加价必然带来下一次加价。“所有反身性最终都会停止”;真正暴露断裂点的,可能不是单纯的股权亏损,而是杠杆和一次重大债务违约。

  • 分层融资起初有合理的差异化逻辑:先向能提供价值的投资人募集低价的“和我一起建设的钱”,再向被动投资人募集更高价格的资本。但周期会从“创新者”走向“模仿者”,最终走向“蠢人”;当所有公司不论质量都照搬这种结构时,它就又变成了一种融资技巧。

3. 价格往往是机会的替身——自我是昂贵的筛选器

  • 高价成交可能只是为了赢得交易、不惜支付任何价格,也可能意味着你看到了远大于竞争者的总机会。风投的非对称性改变了计算方式:投入资金可能归零,但赢家可以带来10倍甚至更高回报。因此,“风投犯下的最昂贵错误,是那些他们放弃的交易”。

  • Venky最难忘的一次错失发生在他担任Plaxo董事期间。Sean Parker离开后,曾建议他去见一位波士顿的大学辍学生;Venky不信任这个局面,甚至拒绝见面,错过了写出一张或许只有5万美元支票的机会。Parker当时展现出的,是对病毒式传播、网络效应和人类行为的罕见洞察,而且表达得非常简单。

  • 面对后续更高价格的轮次,Venky拒绝因为另一位投资人——Harry举的例子是Peter Fenton——以更低价格进入而感到受辱。他承认,过去自我确实影响过估值谈判、联合投资和那些感觉太小的配置:“我唯一的lead ego,就是为我的投资人赚钱。只要能为我的投资人赚钱,谁在乎?”

  • 创始人尽调始于一个前提:“你建设的公司,就是你建设的团队。”Venky会追问:在数十亿种可能性中,这些人为什么选择彼此?然后再问,他们最亲近的5个朋友会用哪3个词描述他们。背调是为了验证这份回答是否体现自知之明;已知的弱点可以管理,盲点则很危险。

4. 在异类变得显而易见之前,持股最重要

  • Venky反对把持股比例当成孤立目标:“我宁愿持有一家万亿美元公司的2%,也不愿持有一家1亿美元公司的20%。”Menlo持有Anthropic不到2%,说明当分母足够巨大时,较低的持股比例依然可以带来具有决定意义的敞口。

  • 在异类尚未被识别之前,持股既保留回报潜力,也保留信息价值。Menlo在Higgsfield的案例中,先用500万美元换取15%持股,随后获得了继续加码的机会。一旦所有人都认出赢家,选择alpha就消失了:发现机会变成渠道和仓位大小。

  • Menlo已经让Anthropic为一只基金贡献了20%,但Venky强调的是过程。关键问题不是首次支票是否就买入20%,而是公司出现新证据、投资信念增强后,机构是否沿着这个过程逐步加仓。在公司层面持有10%越来越困难的情况下,这种分阶段集中才是产生基金级影响的路径。

  • Harry质疑,持股比例下降究竟是因为结果空间整体扩大,还是因为只有少数公司变得极其庞大。Venky的回答是组合保险:目标依然是本垒打,但持股比例能让三垒安打在没有满贯时仍然产生影响。否则,组合提供的就只有“满贯本垒打或三振出局”。

5. 时间、稀释和公开市场机会成本主导风投数学

  • Menlo假设,种子轮时的10%持股到退出时可能只剩3.5%–4%,后续融资和期权池扩张带来约60%的稀释。作为工作规则,Venky建议预期初始仓位到期末大约会减半。

  • 时间是隐藏变量。估值快速复合增长的公司可以更早退出,以更低稀释融资,并交付更高IRR:“这是双赢。”持有周期过长则会同时带来两种成本——IRR恶化,反复融资和招聘授予又持续消耗持股比例。

  • 增长速度也会改变员工股权的经济账。一家2亿美元的公司可能向高级高管授予2%,这是一笔有意义的所有权转移;到了20亿美元,公司可以用大约0.1%的股份提供同样2000万美元的价值。快速升值因此能同时保护现有投资人免受融资稀释和人力资本稀释。

  • 对于“DPI还是IRR?”这一问题,Venky的答案是两者都要,但如今必须明确关注IRR。AI公司要向Nvidia、超大规模云厂商以及潜在的基础模型支付“税”,而投资人越来越可以通过公开市场获得这些资产,无须承担风投费用和carry。因此,私募基金需要约1000个基点的超额IRR,才能证明其结构合理。

6. 下行保护可能在公司消失之前就先消失

  • Venky从Avanex身上学到了流动性的重要性:5000美元的IPO买入最终涨到约20万美元,但他拒绝了未婚妻用这笔钱支付房屋首付的建议,最后在下跌90%后卖出,只收回约8000–9000美元。Harry反驳说,若Emergence过早卖出Salesforce,就会摧毁其最具代表性的回报;Venky的结论是要结合资产负债表判断,而不是制定普遍适用的卖出规则。

  • 如今人们轻率地假设战略买方会在公司估值15亿美元时出手拯救,这与互联网泡沫时期的说法相似:成功意味着数十亿美元出售,失败则意味着按人才团队被收购。Venky提到上一轮周期中Nortel以35亿美元收购Kairos、Lucent以45亿美元收购Chromatis的模式;2000年3月之后,这种模式就不再奏效。

  • 监管宽松、竞争反应和高位的公开市场股票,可能共同制造一个短期窗口,让更多并购发生。但这并不保护投资人:买方关心的是创始人和技术,而不是股权表;结构化交易已经证明了这一点。“他们为什么不直接用同样的方案雇走创始人?”

  • 当回报达到30–50倍时,Venky希望基金问自己是否应该卖出约10%–15%,最好与创始人的流动性安排同步。锁定部分收益后,创始人和投资人都会更愿意继续持有剩余仓位。除非公司本身被出售,或Menlo与创始人之间缺乏关系,否则Menlo通常不会全部卖出。

7. 只有明确说明基金年份集中度,快速部署才站得住脚

  • Menlo的承诺模式区分了被动的种子轮敞口与大额支票加董事席位。在Anthropic/OpenAI的案例中,这也是它选择继续投Anthropic、而不是同时投资OpenAI的原因。Venky把这描述为Menlo自己的真实选择,而不是行业通用规则。

  • 如果AI确实是决定时代的平台迁移,那么LP同时要求更小的基金和更慢的募资,实际上是在要求相互冲突的结果。Venky称,Google当年在私募市场融资不到5000万美元;而如今的AI业务需要算力和规模化资本,如果一只基金不提供,竞争对手就会补上。

  • 但基金年份分散仍然是真实问题。Menlo Eight在2000–01年大约10个月内完成部署,是公司50年历史上唯一一只未能返还资本的基金。Venky不主张教条式的部署时间表,而是要求GP向LP透明解释其判断、下行方案和集中度。

  • 基金规模本身什么也保证不了:Menlo Nine是2001年募集的15亿美元基金,Menlo Ten是2004年募集的12亿美元基金;两者都低于预期,许多LP也因此离开。如今LP要求DPI,但AI敞口依然具有战略吸引力,因为他们的私募股权组合往往大出3–4倍,而且高度暴露于软件颠覆。

8. 资本结构决定谁还有行动空间

  • 财富会让投资人不那么害怕失败,也更愿意“押到最后”。Venky的扑克比喻很直接:筹码最多的玩家能看到更多牌,并压制整张牌桌。这让规模3000万–1亿美元、需要配置100万–300万美元的基金尤其尴尬,因为它们无法像天使支票那样轻松完成配置。

  • 他拒绝把困难说成不可能。Venky估计Sarah Guo的基金规模约为2亿美元,并提到她成功进入多家炙手可热的公司;BoxGroup也是另一个反例。但这些都是“最优秀中的最优秀”,不能被外推为基金构建模板:“没有什么神奇策略”——顶尖管理人靠更强的执行、更高强度的竞争和罕见的韧性胜出。

  • 2021年前后软件公司还面临另一个控制权问题。私募股权所有者面对AI颠覆,但可以依靠多数股权采取行动;许多风投支持的“僵尸SaaS公司”则拥有分散的股权结构,没有任何人持有足够股份或足够在意,来把船安全驶到港口。Venky给出的区间非常残酷:最好的结果可能是“被抱住”——拿回本金;最坏的结果则是归零。

9. 当赌注复利时,资本配置胜过个人魅力

  • 当被问及在一位规模化创始人身上应在产品愿景和资本配置之间二选一时,Venky选择资本配置,因为它包含了产品判断:领导者必须把资源投向重要的产品,以及能够产生回报的方向。产品愿景型领导者却未必具备反向的纪律。

  • 他拿Mark Zuckerberg作对比,称赞其在Instagram等项目上的资本配置;另一边是Evan Spiegel,Venky称其为产品天才,但指出Snap股东已经有7年或8年没有获得回报。Harry对股权薪酬的担忧进一步凸显了差别:打造受人喜爱的产品,与让股东价值持续复合,并不是一回事。

  • Venky不担心财富会自动让顶尖选手退出竞争:“金钱不会改变人,只会揭示他们。”那些原本只是装得很有动力的人可能会退出;真正的A选手把钱当成计分板,因为他们热爱比赛。他也承认,高度集中的财富正在改变湾区:当供给受限而需求上升时,房价会被进一步推高。

  • 他给LP的建议是“看挡风玻璃,不要看后视镜”(look at the windshield, not the rear view mirror):披露的业绩滞后当前能力5–7年,因此LP应该去询问成功的AI创始人——包括那些拒绝过该基金的人——他们尊重哪些合伙人。内部则遵循草原法则:无论是狮子还是羚羊,“你都得跑起来”;最重要的是下一场会议、下一笔投资和下一次董事会。

完整逐字稿
Venky Ganesan

At this point in Menlo's history, right, we are going broke. We are going for the grand slam home run. We want to see everything. We want to win everything. Full stop. It is a very disorienting, confusing time.

Each seed investment is an option bet. You're buying an option to see if it's an outlier. You never want to let your ego come in the way. My one lead ego is to make money for my investors. If there's an opportunity to make money on an investment, we should do it. The rest of this is all noise. The game has changed. You have to focus on IRR. There's no way for venture to be successful in today's era without the Mag 7 participating in everything you're doing. There's no limit to what a person can do as long as you don't care who gets the credit.

Venky Ganesan

You have now arrived at your destination.

Harry Stebbings

Venky, dude, I am so excited to do this. I am such a fan of your tweets. Who would ever call them blowhard, right? That's terrible commentary on them, and I was so looking forward to this. Thank you so much for doing it in person.

Venky Ganesan

I love this. Thank you so much, and I cannot wait to see if I pass your test.

Harry Stebbings

Dude, you'll pass my test. I want to use this as a real learning discussion for me because I want to build a firm like Menlo, and I want to learn from the wisdom that you've had now, seeing multiple different cycles. You just told me a story that I loved, and it was from 2 decades ago, holding a certain stock. Can you tell me that story and your takeaway?

Venky Ganesan

A little bit of the past: a few years ago, I was at a firm called Globespan Capital Partners, and we happened to be investors in a company called Avanex, which is—nobody knows about this company—A-V-A-N-E-X. I remember the stock symbol even now. I was an associate and did not have carry in the fund.

Avanex was a big winner and went public. They gave the associates a chance to own shares of the IPO, so I bought some shares. I remember putting in the princely sum of $5,000. At one point, Avanex got up to $200,000. It was such a big portion of my portfolio.

My wife, who's much smarter than me—she was my fiancée then, and we were getting married—said, "Hey, why don't you sell some so that we can have something for a down payment on the house?" I was like, "No, no, no. Avanex is going to go up. Optical components are a critical part of the Internet bubble. It's going to go higher. We're going to make $1 million on it."

You know how the story ends, right? It drops 90%, and I think I sell it for around $8,000 or $9,000. I call it the most important lesson I learned from a 90% loss: at some point, you should take some chips off the table.

Harry Stebbings

I'm not sure what to take from that, because I remember having Jake Sapraun from Emergence on, and when he broke down Emergence's returns, you just saw this one meteoric outlier that returned 90 to 90-.

Venky Ganesan

Viva.

Harry Stebbings

Well, Veeva, yes, but it was actually Salesforce.

Venky Ganesan

Wow.

Harry Stebbings

If they had held it longer and longer, obviously it would've been even more meteoric. I guess my question is: what should we take from that? Because we also see the dangers of selling too early.

Venky Ganesan

Agreed. A lot of this advice depends on the context of who you are as a person and what your balance sheet is. At this point in Menlo's history, we are going broke. We are going for the grand slam home run because we've had home runs before. We have a history of putting it on the table.

As a 24-year-old with very little in your bank account, when you have that kind of, for me, Avanex game-changing money, it just makes economic sense to take some off the table. I do think the advice is that there's no one-size-fits-all for these things.

Harry Stebbings

Did you say you're going for broke? All hands to the pump. We are going for this. Does anything change with that mindset internally? Is it more aggression, more willingness to pay up, or more willingness to have less ownership? What changes with that?

Venky Ganesan

What we mean is that we are going to fight and try to be in the defining AI companies of our era. We want to see everything. We want to win everything, full stop.

Harry Stebbings

I want to start with a concern, which is that I don't know what business we're in anymore. Venture's not venture anymore. I have my team come to me and say, "Hey, we can't find anything under $100 million." I said, "Wow, that's a high price for a pre-seed or seed round." They said, "No, no, no, Harry, that's the size of the round." Thank you. This is not venture. What am I to do in this world, and can you invest without a billion-dollar fund?

Venky Ganesan

Venture has changed, but I also think that you can't take a snapshot in time and draw a conclusion. A dot is not a line. Right now, you're right: every AI company wants to raise hundreds of millions of dollars, and I'm surprised they only said $100 million, because there are some new labs that want to raise billions of dollars.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Venky Ganesan

They all have arguments for it. It is a very disorienting, confusing time, I will admit that, but I also think these things change quickly. You don't want to necessarily draw your long-term strategy from a snapshot in time.

Harry Stebbings

These things change quickly. Do you play the game on the field, as Bill Gurley says, or do you call time out and say, "You know what? I learned from 2021. You know what I wish I'd done in 2021? Less."

Venky Ganesan

This is a really hard conundrum for professional investors. You're referring to my tweet, right? The Chuck Prince quote is, "When the music is playing, you gotta dance." As a professional investor, the danger of not dancing is that you do not know when this ends.

I'll give you a story. There were a bunch of really smart venture firms during the dot-com boom that got in in '93 and '94, made money, and decided to step out of the game in '96 and '97. When they stepped out of the game, they missed out on '97, '98, and '99, and the LPs were like, "What happened? We invested in you because you're going to be at the cutting edge. You stepped out." They stepped back in in 2000.

Timing markets is really, really hard. I think you have to play the game, but I think you can play the game differently. You can choose to be more selective, and you can hopefully think about portfolio composition and position sizing as a way of mitigating what happens when the cycle turns.

Harry Stebbings

Portfolio composition and position sizing: what do we do with both of those in a market like this? How do we change them?

Venky Ganesan

I think you have to think about the venture portfolio as a bunch of options. Each seed investment is an option bet. You're buying an option to see if it's an outlier, and so you want to have enough of those to make sure you have an outlier. Then, when there is true quantitative evidence based on revenue and other quantifiable metrics that something is going to be an outlier, you position-size up.

To me, you have to think, “What is my fund size? How do I have enough at-bats?”—to use a baseball analogy—and make sure that you have enough at-bats. Then you only position-size up on the things that are already proven.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think seed still really exists today?

Venky Ganesan

If you want to go into the core AI world with the neo-labs, I think seed is hard.

Harry Stebbings

But even AI application companies are raising $10 million to $20 million. The old $3 million to $5 million days, which were still quite large seed rounds, are gone.

Venky Ganesan

Honestly, I think there are 2 things that impact seed investing today. One is the size of the round, and then you have this other sort of externality, which is these large funds—maybe including us—being somewhat indifferent to seed valuations because they're using that as an option check.

Harry Stebbings

Because you are, aren't you? I didn't mean to put you on the spot, but—

Venky Ganesan

Yes. We are trying to buy ourselves a seat at the table. At the cost of buying that seat at the table, we are somewhat indifferent to at the seed stage because our real goal is to size up and invest in them if they become outliers.

Harry Stebbings

Thank you for making my life harder in that respect. You said you place these bets, so to speak, and then, when you see discernible traction, you can double down. I completely agree with that logic.

We're seeing strange numbers: contracted annual recurring revenue that's not actually annual revenue and isn't really live. You're seeing revenue run rate that's extrapolated from the best day in history, and then we multiply that by 365 days. There's a murkiness to this revenue that we've never seen before, which makes me feel quite icky in a lot of cases. Do you share that, and how would you advise me? What do internal discussions look like around that?

Venky Ganesan

If any metric is measured by an investor and they put a lot of weight on it, it's going to be gamed, and that's just the nature of it. Maybe they should coin a law for it.

There are 2 elements going on. One, I'm blanking. I don't know if it's Keynes or another famous economist who coined the term “bezzle.” When there's a boom, the bezel is high, which means, like, it's, it's a notion that the embezzlement of things will be... It's not just that people are going to pick metrics. People are also going to have some interesting accounting techniques, which, by the way, will happen every cycle, and it's probably happening in this cycle. We're going to find out in the next few years exactly the accounting creativity of some of our founders and how some people gamed the metrics.

One good example of that during the SaaS wave was that a lot of investors put a lot of weight on net revenue retention. One way to game net revenue retention is to get a $100 purchase order—but it's better to get a $10 purchase order and then get a $50 purchase order a week later, because if you just got a $100 purchase order, your net revenue retention was 100%. But if you got the $10 purchase order and the $50 purchase order, it's now 500%, and the net revenue retention looks much better.

Once a metric is measured, it can be gamed, and that happens. To me, a lot of this comes down to whether the founders are really focused on building a business. Are they focused on terminal value, or are they focused on markups? I think you want to find founders and investors who are focused on terminal value.

Harry Stebbings

Do you believe in kingmaking? I know that sounds like a strange question: the theory that multiple successive and quick rounds led by strong investors can really help increase the chances of a company being successful.

Venky Ganesan

To me, that is a great example of Soros's reflexivity. What I mean by that is you have a company that does well, and because it does well and the revenue is growing really fast, it gets a quick markup. Because of the quick markup, it gets more capital, it gets to come on Harry's show, and then it gets more notoriety that allows it to bring in more human capital along with the financial capital. It grows faster, and that's all because of the markup.

These are good things as long as the revenue is happening and the core business is being built. But someone—a copycat—can look at that and say, “The secret is to have a markup.” A copycat investor might look and say, “If it's marked up, it's going to be marked up again.” Then reflexivity kicks in, and everybody starts acting that way.

This explains how market cycles work until they stop. One thing we know from Soros is that all reflexivity will eventually stop. We just don't know how or when. Until it stops, a lot of people can look very smart.

Harry Stebbings

We don't know how or when, but we can play the game of predicting how and when. If you were to predict how, what are the first signs of this cracking?

Venky Ganesan

I think usually the first sign comes with some major debt default. Generally, equity is never the reason why these things crack, because with equity, you write it down and just take the loss. Debt, on the other hand, comes with the expectation that people are going to get paid back.

Most of the cycles I know break because people lever themselves. If you see what happened with Leopold and Core Investor, when you have 4x leverage, it doesn't matter if you're right. You also have to get the timing correct.

Harry Stebbings

He missed his risk-management class in high school, didn't he? Poor old Lehman.

When the music's going, I completely get you there. How do you feel about multiple-tranche rounds happening so quickly? I'm meeting founders very often who say, “We're doing a round this week at a $100 million valuation, but then we'll be opening up the second tranche later next week at $200 million because we've got so much demand.” This gives me the shivers. I feel like I'm in We Buy Any Gold or We Buy Any Car.

Venky Ganesan

I feel like in every cycle you get the innovators, then you get the imitators, and eventually you get the idiots. I think the innovation of tranche financing was the notion that I can get “build-with-me” money, use that build-with-me money at a lower valuation to get just money at a higher valuation, and then eventually transition to pure dumb money.

I don't need all money to be the same. I will bring in some investors who are actually going to build a company with me, then I'll also bring in some capital, and eventually I'll bring in some very low-cost capital. That was the intention.

But, like everything else, now everyone's doing it, and it's no longer tied to the quality of the company. It's become another technique for people to use. These things initially start with the core of the idea, which is actually a good one: “I want to raise capital, but I want to distinguish between capital that adds value and capital that doesn't add value.”

Harry Stebbings

Will you do it as a firm if you come in at the latter tranche?

Venky Ganesan

It absolutely depends on the situation. We have been on both sides of this situation, and I think if the company is interesting and the founders are special, absolutely.

Harry Stebbings

Really?

Venky Ganesan

Yes. At the end of the day, I never care about what other people invest or what they do. I'm looking at this round and saying—

Harry Stebbings

Are you not hurt by the fact that they're saying you're legitimately less valuable than Peter Fenton, who we're letting in at half the price?

Venky Ganesan

Peter's amazing. I think the biggest thing I've learned over time is that you never want to let your ego get in the way. My one and only goal is to make money for my investors. If I can make money for my investors, who the hell cares?

Harry Stebbings

Have you ever let your ego get in the way? I have.

Venky Ganesan

100%.

Harry Stebbings

What happened?

Venky Ganesan

I think you get caught in ways of negotiating around valuation or being in a syndicate. Sometimes you're offered an opportunity where you think you're being offered a small piece, and you say, “Well, I'm too big for that piece.”

I think in this business you have to have a high degree of humility, because every week I get hit and punched in the face by things I don't know. The biggest mistakes are when we get too caught in our ego.

Look, the reality is simple. We raise money from institutional investors with one and only one goal, which is to return more money to them. If there's an opportunity to make money on an investment, we should do it. The rest of this is all noise.

I think too often, because venture capital tends to be dominated by personalities, people get caught in these things. You probably don't know a lot of people at Goldman. Everybody can say David Solomon, who's the CEO, but the idea is that Goldman makes a ton of money and those people just go do their jobs. Too often in venture capital, because there are so many personalities, it becomes more about who we are and our egos as opposed to just doing the job.

Harry Stebbings

I think that's forced by the fact that we're fighting for constrained supply there.

If you're looking at, say, Goldman's public markets team, you can buy Nvidia, I can buy Nvidia, and they can buy Nvidia. It is a free market. Here, we are both competing for Max at Ligora, and if he takes your check, he won't take mine because there's 1 lead check. So we have to have personality. We have to sell ourselves because there is a constrained supply, no?

Venky Ganesan

Yes. What you say is absolutely true, which is that you have to have these 2 dualities and manage them. One is you have to have a personality. You have to be able to project a sense of differentiation, right? Because why does someone choose Harry and not me? It's because they like Harry.

Harry Stebbings

And good looks and charm.

Venky Ganesan

I see that in person even more so.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Venky Ganesan

But I think if you get caught in that and get so immersed in it, then you lose a sense of what the core purpose is, right? The core purpose of having that personality and charm is to make money for your investors. That's why it is, right? If there's a time for you to make money for your investors where you have to let your ego take a backseat, you should do it. That's the right thing to do.

I'm not saying it's easy to do. I'm not saying I've done it. But it's the right thing to do. It's kind of like, I know I've got to eat right and exercise. I know that. I don't do it often, but I know it's the right thing to do.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, but Gymkhana is so good. Some things in life are worth it, like butter chicken.

Venky Ganesan

I'm a Dishoom.

Harry Stebbings

Oh, you are?

Venky Ganesan

Ah.

Harry Stebbings

Oh, well done. Don't worry, I like Dishoom, too. We said about price: we're a little less focused on it when it's early. There comes a time when it does matter. With the greatest of respect—

Oh, say it. Say it, man.

Venky Ganesan

Well, men, they kind of pay up.

And for all you entrepreneurs out there, we definitely pay up. So definitely call us.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, you do, and every time I'm like, “Pff.” Man's paying up.

Venky Ganesan

Mm-hmm.

Harry Stebbings

And you proved me right. You're right, and I'm proved wrong when I'm like, “God, they're not disciplined on price.” So I guess I'm questioning: do we just need to completely reshape how we think about terms and market sizing?

Venky Ganesan

Let's think about when people pay up. People sometimes pay up to be able to win the deal. Sometimes people pay up because they're able to see a bigger tab than the other investor. In those cases, you're not actually paying a higher market price; you're able to see that the opportunity is bigger, and therefore you're willing to see that possibility.

Sometimes you're going to be right, and sometimes you're going to be wrong. So to me, I don't necessarily think it's just price. Sometimes you don't see the tab, you're just trying to win the deal, and that's the price it takes. You're just a clear price taker. That happens, too.

The problem is, venture is an asymmetric game. You can lose the dollars you invest, but you can make 10X if you're right. That asymmetry means the sins of omission are way higher than the sins of commission. What I mean by that is, you only see the deals we do, right? You don't see the deals we pass. But the most expensive mistakes venture capitalists make are the deals they passed, not the deals they did.

Harry Stebbings

When you say that, what's the most memorable pass that haunts you? What is it?

Venky Ganesan

My most memorable pass was that I was a young board member on a company called Plaxo, which had an incredible board: Mike Moritz, Ram Shriram, Tim Koogle from Yahoo, little unknown me, Sean Parker, and Todd Masonis and Cameron Dren, who were the founders.

Sean had some challenges on that board and was asked to leave. Because I was the only person within 10 years of his age in that group, he was telling me he was going to Boston and was going to work with this college dropout. He said, “You should get involved.” And I'm like, “Sean, you just got booted off this board, and I have no idea what I'm doing.” I didn't even take that meeting.

I probably had the opportunity to write a $50,000 check. Those seed rounds were different. They were $1 million seed rounds.

Harry Stebbings

That's a tough one. What was Sean like back then?

Venky Ganesan

The way he described Plaxo, his vision worked out. He understood virality and network effects, and his thought process around what happened with Napster.

My rule of thumb is I'm always looking for people who are incredibly good at communicating very complex concepts in a simple manner and just have insight. Sean had insight around human behavior and complex concepts, and could boil it down in a simple way. He was a very good communicator.

Harry Stebbings

What a character.

Venky Ganesan

And he gets to have Justin Timberlake play him, so it must be all right.

Harry Stebbings

I mean, it's a pretty cool one. Drops the “the.”

Venky Ganesan

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

Love it. And we actually did that. We were the 20 Minute VC—

Venky Ganesan

Oh, good. There you go.

Harry Stebbings

—now it's just 20VC. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Thanks, dude. I was talking to Amy beforehand, speaking of the founders you backed there.

Venky Ganesan

Amazing partner of mine.

Harry Stebbings

Amazing partner of yours. She said that you care a lot about understanding what brought founders together. Hearing you talk about Sean there made me think of this. Why do you care about what brings founders together? And are there any patterns or signals that excite you?

Venky Ganesan

I think the company you build is the team you build. So much of the DNA of a company is set by its founding team. What brought them together, why they thought, in a world of 6 billion people, they should be the people to do this, and how they think about each other's strengths and weaknesses—I think these things are like a precog from Minority Report that tells you how they're going to make decisions and how they're going to build the rest of their team.

I think it gives you a clue about who these people are. Ultimately, I think a company's culture and DNA are going to be shaped by the founders.

Harry Stebbings

You can ask 1 question that you find most revealing of a founder's qualities. Doug Leone's, to me, was the one I remember most, and he always says, “What's your worst reference?”

Venky Ganesan

That's a great question. I generally ask: imagine your 5 best friends are in a room, and if I had to ask them for 3 words to describe you, what would those be? That's a question I normally ask people.

I'll tell you, I listened to Mike Moritz in an interview, and he asked a question—his favorite question is, “If you could go back in your life and change 1 thing, what would that be?” I think that's a pretty interesting question.

If I were to ask you what you think about yourself, it's harder. But when you think about your friends, you can externalize it, and that gives you a clue about how the people around you think about you. It also tells you your self-awareness, because usually after I do that, I also do references, and I'm going to try to see if the references match someone's self-awareness.

It's actually okay if you know your weaknesses, because then you have a much better chance of managing them. It's the people who are blind to their weaknesses who usually have challenges.

Harry Stebbings

Don't worry, my weaknesses are revealed in the comments section of every interview, so I see them glaringly. One thing that's been uniform across the industry is that we've seen ownerships go down. Even the vaunted Benchmark now takes less than 10%, and—

Venky Ganesan

I thought they said 20%, 20% or bust.

Harry Stebbings

Maybe they still stick to that message. I love the Benchmark guys, absolutely. But does ownership matter as much anymore?

Venky Ganesan

Of course it does. Ownership always matters, but I think you have to think of that relative to the opportunity, right? What I mean by that is, would I love to have 20% of a company? Sure. But I'd rather take 2% of a trillion-dollar company than 20% of a $100 million company, right?

Harry Stebbings

So you'll do deals now for 2% or 3%?

Venky Ganesan

Well, we do. Anthropic—we own less than 2%. My point is that when you think about ownership, you can't think of that in isolation.

Harry Stebbings

But I think you're either in the ownership game or you're in the money movement game.

Venky Ganesan

I disagree a little bit. I think when you're making your option bet, you want to have ownership, because then it's not clear. Let's say you know it's an outlier. If it's an outlier company, then you're in the capital-invested game. Prior to it being an outlier company, you have to be in the ownership game.

Your best situation is that you are in the ownership game in an outlier company, and then, because it's an outlier, you go into the money-movement game.

Harry Stebbings

No, I thought you said the ownership doesn't matter before it becomes an outlier, because you're there for the information. When it does become known, it becomes a money-concentration game.

Venky Ganesan

You want to have enough ownership, though. I mean, you look at Higgsfield with my partner Amy. She killed it. She got 15% of the company for a $5 million check. You had Alex on your podcast—an incredible entrepreneur and an incredible business.

So in that case, we got the ownership. And then we also had the opportunity to size up.

Harry Stebbings

Did you?

Venky Ganesan

Yeah. We invested.

Harry Stebbings

Do you get my rationale, though, that it doesn't matter if you have ownership in the first place?

What you're buying is the information to size up.

Venky Ganesan

I get that. If you're asking me whether it's better to be in the company regardless of ownership or not be in the company, yeah, it's better to be in the company. But it's even better to be in the company with ownership because now you've actually gotten your ownership that's gonna drive real returns.

The problem is, once it's an outlier, everybody knows about it. It's no longer a selection game. It's just, okay, can you get access, and can you—it's a position-sizing game. There's no alpha there, and that's the truth. In the AI greatest hits, everybody knows these companies.

Harry Stebbings

How much of your fund will you put in a single company?

Venky Ganesan

I don't think we would put more than 20% of—

Harry Stebbings

Have you gone up to 20% before?

Venky Ganesan

We have hit 20% on one company.

Harry Stebbings

Whoa. What company?

Venky Ganesan

Anthropic.

Harry Stebbings

I mean—

Venky Ganesan

But it—

Harry Stebbings

Fair enough. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Venky Ganesan

It's gotta be an exception, right?

Harry Stebbings

Yeah. I bet that was a hard conversation: “We 10x'd this year. We 10x'd last year.” “Okay, Venky, let's do it.”

Venky Ganesan

But I do feel that you have to think about the question of ownership and concentration as one. What I mean is, where was the company? What information do you have? How much conviction can you have as an outlier company?

The thing about position sizing is you want to position size when the data is there. If you position size it ahead of the data, then you're taking a lot more risk. So the question is not, did you put 20% of the fund into a company in one check at the beginning of the fund, or did you ladder up to 20% on the basis of new data? Obviously, it's much better to ladder up on the basis of new data.

I think in an era where venture capitalists are gonna have ownership come down—I mean, I wish we could get 10%. Even 10% is hard, right? The way you're gonna win is you're gonna establish a position and then size up as a company does well, so that you have sized it commensurate to the outlier opportunity.

Harry Stebbings

Totally get you, and I get that. Everyone says that ownership doesn't matter so much because outcome sizes are so much larger than they've ever been. They are. That is a valid answer.

My question is, are they on the whole? Do we just have a breadth of companies that will be much larger, or is it really just a handful of Anthropics and SpaceX and cursor on the small end at 60 billion, which is still enormous and amazing? But is that a good enough justification for ownership going down?

Venky Ganesan

I think the problem comes down to your portfolio composition, right? If you are in one of those outliers, I think you can survive with low ownership. But what happens if you are not in these big outliers?

Essentially, you're playing a game, to use baseball analogies, where there's only grand-slam home runs or strikeouts. There's no singles, doubles, or triples, right? In cricket terms, it's like only scoring sixes and not having ones and twos.

The problem with that is that if you don't score a six and you don't have the ones and twos, that's gonna be a tough fund. Part of getting ownership is giving yourself some insurance that if you missed out on the outlier, the mid-sized outcomes can still move the needle for you.

Harry Stebbings

But will you do singles and doubles?

Venky Ganesan

No. The goal is always to score home runs, right?

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Venky Ganesan

But sometimes you strike out. If you strike out all the time, that's gonna be a tough fund. So the idea is that you wanna at least say, “Okay, I went for the home run and I got a triple.”

Harry Stebbings

But I just don't think founders are aware, and I say this and people always get at me. I think they kind of miss the point because I say it lovingly, for awareness, for founders: the game has changed. Going from $1 million to $4 million, then $4 million to $8 million, then $8 million to $16 million, and then, Venky, in 5 years' time, we're gonna hit $30 million—that's an amazing achievement. But it is just not enough to get venture excited today. Do you agree with that?

Venky Ganesan

Yes, I agree with that. Again, it's a snapshot in time because you're seeing companies—

Harry Stebbings

But do you think venture will ever go back to being excited about that?

Venky Ganesan

Well, they're not excited about it today because they're seeing companies go from $1 million to $10 million to $50 million to $100 million. They're getting to $100 million in 3 years, or in some cases they're going from $0 to $1 billion in 18 months, right?

When you see those kinds of companies, of course you wanna do those. But that's because we are in a moment in time where there are certain trends allowing you to do it. I don't think this continues forever.

This is where I think you have to take the long, long-horizon look at this. There were companies who grew fast, but there's a combination of things that make these companies grow fast today that may or may not continue.

Harry Stebbings

When they grow as fast as they are, the rounds come thick and fast and the prices are high.

Venky Ganesan

Yeah. I mean, you look at Instinct. God bless. I wish we were in. They've gone from, I don't know, $250 million to $10 billion in 10 weeks.

Harry Stebbings

Would you have done that round at $10 billion?

Venky Ganesan

Smart people have done it. We are in Town, which we love and think very highly of, and we're excited about that. I think there's something going on there. There's a true phenomenon. What I don't know is their data, what it costs for them to keep growing their user base, and how the Muse launch affects their growth.

Harry Stebbings

Can I ask you, everyone kind of goes into a lot of investing now with the idea that there's downside protection? No is incredible. It's in a very strategic space for the incumbents. Worst case, one and a half billion McPRAF. It's a no-brainer for Microsoft to do it as an addendum to Copilot, or for Apple to do it. Jesus, Apple, please do it. Do us all a favor and save us from Siri.

Do you think that downside protection—“Ah, don't worry, the incumbents will buy it”—is okay to have, or quite a dangerous mindset to have?

Venky Ganesan

I think you can easily rationalize a lot of things if you take that mindset. The problem is that, again, you threw out this $1.5 billion number casually because we are in this environment where AMD is buying a company for $8.5 billion, Nvidia bought Hugging Face for $14 billion, and Stripe bought OpenRouter, allegedly, for around $8 billion.

Harry Stebbings

Allegedly.

Venky Ganesan

Allegedly.

Harry Stebbings

Allegedly.

Venky Ganesan

Allegedly.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Venky Ganesan

I think we have to say these are points in time where companies are doing it. It may not be that way. Today, it feels like $1.5 billion is, “Oh, no big deal. If I'm right, it's gonna be worth $100 billion or $200 billion. If I'm wrong, someone's gonna pick it up for $3 billion or $4 billion.”

By the way, that's what you're referring to with my tweets. I wrote this thing about how, if you go back and look at the dot-com era, Nortel bought Kairos for $3.5 billion. Lucent bought Chromatis for $4.5 billion. These were companies with no product and no revenue, just teams, and they bought them with their stock.

It felt very similar. In fact, I believe Jeff Yang from Redpoint, a legendary investor, had this quote in The Industry Standard, which is a magazine that's no longer in existence. He said, “You know, there's no risk in venture capital. If the company's successful, it'll be sold for billions. If not, it'll be bought for the talent stack.”

It didn't quite work out that way on the other end of the cycle, after March 2000. So I go with trepidation, but I just wouldn't take the mindset that some large strategic is gonna buy my company for the talent stack because they don't care about the investors. They care about the founders. Why would they do that? Why wouldn't they just hire the founders for the same package?

Harry Stebbings

Well, in a lot of cases, they kind of are in these structured deals—

Venky Ganesan

Right.

Harry Stebbings

Let's be honest, and screwing the investors.

Venky Ganesan

So you've seen that, and you can't take that—there's no reason for them to take care of the cap table.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think about the dilutive nature of businesses today? What I mean by that is that we are suffering more and more dilution as an investor class than ever before, and it's a better time than ever to be an employee, given the levels of stock-based compensation, or SBC, for people. Do you worry about that? Do you think about that? Should I worry about that and think about that?

Venky Ganesan

For sure. We look at whatever we invest in at the seed round, and we assume that by the time we sell or exit the company, if we own 10%, we would have 3.5% to 4%. We expect 60% dilution from the point of our first check, right?

That's a combination of dilution from financing, but it's also dilution from option-pool expansions. You have to really think of yourself as, whatever ownership you bought in your first check, it'll only be 50% by then, at the end.

Harry Stebbings

The interesting thing is that it's very common in a lot of companies we're seeing today. The other interesting thing is that companies are sometimes scaling so fast, à la OpenRouter—Alex, a friend of both of ours—that they actually don't take that much dilution because they scale so fast and so efficiently. You suffer much less dilution. So it's almost a tale of 2 dilution worlds. Do you know what I mean?

Venky Ganesan

Yeah. It's a function of time.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Venky Ganesan

So the way to think about it is that—and I don't think we spend enough time in venture capital thinking about that.

We should say, “What is the time horizon you’re going to hold the company for?” Because the time horizon will determine your dilution. Part of the reason your dilution is lower in some situations is that companies have quick exits. They grew their value quickly, and they have quick exits.

That’s a double win. When your time horizon is long, there are 2 hits: your IRR gets hit, and you’re going to have meaningful dilution.

Harry Stebbings

Did you think of that when investing? What really is the ramp? There are businesses in the ERP space where they’re like, “Ah, but the revenue’s such high quality, Harry. I get you. It’s not as fast as your Higgs Field or your Ligora, but it’s so high quality.” And I’m like, “Yeah, fuck, it’s slow.” Am I wrong to think that?

Venky Ganesan

No. I think the velocity of the business is very important for venture capitalists, right? The velocity will determine a bunch of things. The other reason why your dilution goes down is that if you have a fast uptick in valuation, the amount of ownership you have to give for your next set of human capital is a lot lower, right?

You’re a $200 million company, and you’re giving 2% of the company to hire a senior executive—that’s pretty meaningful. You quickly become a $2 billion company. You don’t need to give that much; you’re going to give RSUs, and you give the same person $20 million, which is 0.1%.

Harry Stebbings

DPI or IRR?

Venky Ganesan

Both. Maybe, if you can. I do think, actually, that you can’t have IRR without DPI. I think what you’re trying to ask is, “Hey, will you settle for a larger DPI over a longer horizon, or do you want quicker DPI with a faster IRR?”

I think the reality of venture when I joined—this is now dating myself—28 years ago, people didn’t focus on IRR. People focused on cash-on-cash return because IRR took care of itself. I think in today’s venture, the game has changed. You have to focus on IRR.

You know why? Because there’s no way for venture to be successful in today’s era without the Magnificent 7 participating in everything you’re doing. Every venture company is writing a tax to Nvidia in some way, shape, or form, writing the tax to a hyperscaler in some way, shape, or form, and possibly writing a tax to the foundational model in some way, tax or form.

So if you’re going to be successful, you're gonna be writing a tax to all of them. All of them are available in the public markets, or they will be soon, for someone to invest in a no-fee, no-carry index fund. You have to think about your IRR as, “I’ve got to beat that by 1,000 basis points to justify anyone giving you capital in the private markets.”

Harry Stebbings

You mentioned Town. I had JD on the show. I really like him. I’ve known him since the cloud days. I’m pissed off about that one because he started the company when he left. I remember talking to him about it when he started, and he was doing something in some terrible space. No offense—he’ll agree with me. And then he obviously pivoted.

Venky Ganesan

In tax. I think they were doing something in tax, and then—

Harry Stebbings

Thank you. I’m too old for this shit.

Venky Ganesan

If you’re too old, what am I? I’m ancient.

Harry Stebbings

You’re a spring chicken. And for anyone watching, they’ll see that you look much younger than me.

But my question to you is, we obviously know what happened with the Town round in terms of the competitive nature and dynamics there. I don’t want to go into that. What I want to go into is: does competition matter for VCs to invest against now? It seems like Andreessen has 3 companies all doing the same thing, and many big platforms do. Does it matter if there are many players in the same space anymore?

Venky Ganesan

I mean, this is a personal preference, right? Culturally, for Matt, Shawn, and me, we like to be committed to the entrepreneur. The situation has to be specific. If we take a board seat and write a big check, then we want to be committed. If you’re investing in the seed round and you have a small check and you’re a passive investor, that’s a different issue, right?

But when we make a commitment to the entrepreneur, we want that to feel like a 2-way commitment. We expect them to put the interests of their shareholders first and commit to it, and we as shareholders need to commit to them as well. That’s why we didn’t invest in OpenAI. We only stayed with Anthropic.

There’s no shade. Again, venture is changing in a way that multiple people are doing different things. I think you just have to figure out what is authentic to us and our values and live by those. For us, when we make a big commitment to the founder, we think of it as a 2-way street. They commit to us; we commit to them.

Harry Stebbings

One thing that we see a lot today is the compression in deployment timelines. In other words, people are investing much faster. All the LPs that I speak to are just saying, “God, Harry, Jesus. Everyone is coming back to market so much quicker. They’re bigger.” Is that okay, or is that a sign of a peak bubble?

Venky Ganesan

Yeah, you know, it’s very interesting. LPs want smaller funds, and then they want you not to come back quicker. The problem is that 1 of those 2 things can’t be true. If the opportunity we have is real, and AI is the biggest economic platform shift of our lifetime, and you want smaller funds, they’re going to come back quicker.

There are also large funds that are coming back quicker, so that’s a different issue. But I think the time we are in is 1 in which you’re seeing companies grow so fast and they need capital to grow. This is not a situation where you can grow without capital.

This is not Google. Google, if you go back, probably raised less than $50 million in the private markets. You can’t do that today in AI. You need compute; you need to scale. To me, because you’re seeing them grow so fast, the capital needs are growing. If a venture firm doesn’t provide it, they’re going to get it from their competitor.

Harry Stebbings

So, actually, if managers are deploying a fund in 18 months, LPs should forgive them.

Venky Ganesan

I think the LPs should ask questions and say, “How have you thought about it? How are you managing it? What’s going to happen if things go wrong?” Vintage diversification does matter. People have to be conscious about that.

When I look at Menlo’s history, the 1 fund that wasn’t successful in Menlo’s history—we have a 50-year history—we only had 1 fund that didn’t return capital, which was Menlo 8, invested in a 10-month period between 2000 and 2001. That was not quite the outcome we wanted.

Harry Stebbings

Menlo 8.

Venky Ganesan

Menlo 8. But I bring that up because I do think time diversification matters. By the way, Menlo 7 was 1 of the best funds in Menlo’s history.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, but do you remember Accel 2005, just before the Facebook fund? They had massive LP churn because they went and did a load of cleantech and biotech, and it was not good. And then came the Facebook fund.

Venky Ganesan

So to me, I just bring it up as, look, as GPs, you’ve got to take the fiduciary duty you have to your LPs very seriously, and you’ve got to balance that decision. What I do know is that you can’t have dogmatic rules. You have to play the game on the field.

Then you’ve got to communicate what you’re doing in a transparent way to your LPs and tell them what’s happening. Some LPs are going to be like, “Okay, I agree with you. I want to play.” Some people are not, and you’ve got to respect that. But the point is that you might have no choice but to play the game this way.

Harry Stebbings

Did you ever scale out of an LP class? What I mean by that is, the funds now are reasonably sized. They’re not egregiously sized. You’re not David George asking for the U.S. Treasury, but you’re $3 billion. It’s a lot of money.

For some LPs, they’re like, “It’s a lot.” Was there a time when you scaled out of endowments, say, and suddenly you had to be pension-fund invested?

Venky Ganesan

Our anchor tenant has historically been the Washington State Investment Board, which is the public-sector pension fund of the State of Washington, from an SLP, by the way. I highly recommend them to anybody. They’ve been our anchor tenant since 1981, so we have never had a reason to scale out because public-sector pension funds have been a part of our LP base.

It’s a little bit of a cultural dynamic. I think the founders of Menlo came from very humble beginnings. They both grew up in a house with no running water or toilets. I think John was orphaned very early. He was a scholarship student at MIT.

They love the idea of working for public-sector employees because that felt like working for their parents, and these people look more like their parents than their children.

Harry Stebbings

Love that. So there wasn’t a fund where LPs went, “Oh, Venky, you’re getting pretty big now. I think you’re just scaling out of our sweet spot”?

Venky Ganesan

No, that wasn’t the case. We raised our first billion-dollar fund in venture capital. Menlo raised Menlo 9 in 2001. It was a $1.5 billion fund. Menlo 10, which was raised in 2004, was a $1.2 billion fund.

Those funds did not perform as well as we would have liked, and many LPs did leave us.

Harry Stebbings

You manage a lot of the LP conversations today, correct?

Venky Ganesan

I do. Matt and I do a lot of them, yes.

Harry Stebbings

What do you hear from them? As I said, I hear deployment time is down: people are investing much faster, and the funds are just getting bigger. And then I also just see mimicry, which is—I’m calling this out because it’s a compliment to her.

I never shit on people other than LPs.

Venky Ganesan

That’s okay.

Harry Stebbings

But every LP just wants Sarah Guo’s fund.

Venky Ganesan

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

I completely agree: Sarah Guo is incredible, and you should want her fund. But there’s this complete herd mentality.

Venky Ganesan

Sarah and Mike are amazing—

Harry Stebbings

Amazing.

Venky Ganesan

—and there’s no question about that. I spend a lot of time with them and with LPs, and I think, first of all, a lot of LPs have 2 complaints. One, they’re like, “Enough TVPI. I need to get some DPI.” So I think if you deliver DPI, you’re already on the right side of the table. I think it’s easier to come back to them to ask for more capital when you deliver DPI, right?

Second, I don’t think people can afford not to be in the AI economy, and I’ll tell you why. Most of them have much bigger private equity portfolios than they have venture portfolios. In many cases, they have 3–4x exposure to private equity. A lot of private equity over the last few years has been software, and those positions are directly impacted by AI. If you want to hedge against your private equity portfolio, you’ve got to be in the AI economy.

That’s the piece that forces them to come back. If you are someone who has given people DPI, and you can credibly make the case that you’re going to be a player in the AI economy, I think you can raise money from LPs.

Harry Stebbings

You’ve got to have given DPI. We see companies scale faster than ever, as we’ve said. We see prices that are very high. How do you think about the internal conversation of, “Whoa, X company is now valued at $10 billion. Can we take some chips off the table?” What does that discussion look like, and what are the lessons on how to sell successfully?

Venky Ganesan

I think you have to step back and look at any situation in which you have a 30, 40, or 50x return on your dollar and ask yourself, “Should I take some off the table?” I think the right time to do that is when the entrepreneur is thinking about taking some right off the table. If you were to work in conjunction with them—

Harry Stebbings

What if it’s not material? I’m using this as a consulting lesson. You can invoice me later. I have a company where we’re 40x up.

Venky Ganesan

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

You’re like, “Wow, fantastic.” You’ve got $100,000 in there. Return $4 million back to the $100 million fund that it’s in.

Venky Ganesan

I don’t think it’s a size issue. To me, it’s just, look, lock in the gains. If you go back to the SaaS portfolio in 2021, there were valuations done at, let’s say, pretty high prices. If people had taken 10–15% off the table, even if it’s small, it locks in gains and allows you to go long.

The other thing I tell entrepreneurs is that, just like when you take some chips off the table, you’re more likely to go long, so are we, right? We can now afford to go long with you, and so it aligns. To me—

Harry Stebbings

Will you ever sell all of your position?

Venky Ganesan

Generally, no. Not unless the company is being sold. I’m not interested. I think that’s a different situation. The only time I think it’s different is if you do not have a relationship with the founder. But as long as you’re in, you’re going to ride. We ride and die with our founders.

Harry Stebbings

Jason Lemkin says on the show, “Whenever a founder leaves, I ride it to zero. When a founder’s gone, zero, zero, zero.” Do you find that to be the same when the founder leaves? You’re like, “We’re supportive, of course, and we’re still here,” but mentally you’re like, “That’s a zero.”

Venky Ganesan

My friend and your friend, Nikesh Arora, would disagree with you and say he goes on founder mode. Look, there are people like Nikesh and Jeetu Patel at Cisco. They go into founder mode as executives. It’s sort of an insult to people like that when you say, “The founder leaves.” Look at the situation. Who replaced them?

Founder mode is a mode of working. It’s not tied to anyone personally. I think anyone can be a founder in terms of working in a founder mode, and I think some people do. Frank Slootman joined Data Domain, Snowflake, and ServiceNow. In each of those places, he acted like a founder. He didn’t act like an executive.

Harry Stebbings

By the way, Nikesh, please don’t kill me. I love you more than ever, and I’ve always loved you, and it was Venky who said it. It wasn’t me who said it. I’ll give you Venky’s address later. I’m going to go get a brick through my window.

Venky Ganesan

You’re definitely getting it from Nikesh.

Harry Stebbings

I’m terrified of Nikesh. Are you kidding me?

Can I ask you, then? We see so many sales now. Fei Fei Li sells for $8.2 billion. It’s amazing—a phenomenal exit. Well done to everyone involved. Yesterday’s news. I mean, OpenAI is so yesterday’s news we’ve all forgotten about it. I don’t mean this glibly or anything. I know that sounds so much like a child of this ecosystem, which I’m not, sadly. Are we just going to see a load more exits now?

Venky Ganesan

Yeah, I think you’re going to see more because I think there’s competitive pressure. There’s also this notion that we have a regulatory regime that will let you do M&A, right? There’s been a backlog of M&A that was supposed to happen. It didn’t happen because we had a different regulatory regime. There’s a notion that this may not continue forever, so, one, you have a window of time.

You also have competitive pressure. When AMD buys a real-world model, does Nvidia need to do something? Do other people need to react? I think every acquisition forces a bunch of competitive dynamics that we have to consider.

Then people have equity prices, right? AMD is now a trillion-dollar company. $8.5 billion is still, I think, less than point one percent of the company, right? So you can do stuff because of this combination of things. There’s also the notion that anything that lets you catch up in the AI wave is very highly valued. Did Meta do a good job paying up for scale? I think they would say yeah. If you look at the market cap add of Muse to Meta, maybe that fifteen billion seems cheap now.

Harry Stebbings

I’m also so happy for Zuck. It feels like he’s almost got a co-founder in Alex Wang who he can delegate some of the shit to. Do you know what I mean?

Venky Ganesan

Zuck is a great capital allocator. Go back and look at the history of his capital allocation; it has been phenomenal.

Harry Stebbings

Best of CEOs.

Venky Ganesan

He bought Instagram for $1 billion. He has executed.

Harry Stebbings

He bought Navo for four hundred million, which allowed him to see everything that went. So smart.

Venky Ganesan

I think they’re incredible technologists, but I think there are very few people who are incredible technologists and good capital allocators. Zuck is right up there.

Harry Stebbings

If you could choose 1 skill for a founder at scale between capital allocation and product visionary, what would you choose?

Venky Ganesan

I’d choose capital allocation. By the way, capital allocation by itself also captures product vision, because you’re allocating the capital to the things that matter. In some ways, part of the dynamics of deciding on capital allocation is which product direction you need to go.

But the other way is not true. There are some people who can be great product visionaries but who might not think about what the return on that is going to be.

Harry Stebbings

Evan Spiegel, love the dude. I mean, free candy every year. SBC through the roof. Are you a shareholder of Snap?

Venky Ganesan

We are not a shareholder of Snap, but Ev is a product genius. There’s no question about that.

Harry Stebbings

Genius.

Venky Ganesan

Right? His vision for Snapchat and what he executed—I think it would be fair to say you have not been rewarded for being a shareholder of Snap, at least for the last 7 or 8 years.

Harry Stebbings

Not been rewarded?

Venky Ganesan

I was trying to be polite here.

Harry Stebbings

That’s like giving Titanic an 8 out of 10 in the holiday review book. That’s incredible.

Venky Ganesan

Not being rewarded.

Harry Stebbings

Not been rewarded. Blowhard. Yeah, no, that’s a good way to put it.

Are you worried by how much money is being made by people? I’m seeing researchers at OpenAI walk out with $30–40 million.

Venky Ganesan

Here’s the thing: I’ll always believe this—money doesn’t change people; it reveals them. People think money and power change people. No, they only reveal them.

If you’re an asshole before, when you have money and power, you reveal that. What I have found is that the people who are really motivated are going to be motivated even if they have lots of money. The people who are not motivated, who are acting like they are, will opt out when the money shows up.

To me, it won’t change for the A players, because for the A players, money is just a way of keeping score. What they love is the game.

Harry Stebbings

So you’re not worried about house prices in the Bay Area and the inflation that we’re going to see with IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI? That worries you, or not?

Venky Ganesan

Of course it does. It changes the character of the place. But the real issue we have—and this is an issue in California, hopefully not in London—is a question of supply. It’s not a question of demand.

At the end of the day, we have tremendously increased the cost of, and the process for, building a house. There’s no supply coming in, so any uptick in demand results in prices going up. The way to address that is not to worry about the demand, but to increase the supply of housing stock. We just do not have the collective willpower, and this…

For a progressive state, there's more NIMBYism in California than I expected, and the NIMBYism prevents you from building more housing stock.

Harry Stebbings

I saw a tweet where you said something. You responded to Brian Armstrong: “I do my work.”

Venky Ganesan

Okay. All right. This is dangerous.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, it is dangerous, but I'm joining you on this side if this is where you're going. You said, “I appreciate your leadership through the woke times.”

Venky Ganesan

I think what I particularly appreciated about Brian is that he laid out his principles of what he believed, and he told people, “Hey, if you really want to engage in political activism, then Coinbase is not the place for you because we do not want to have political dialogue here. If that's important for you, you should go and find a place in which you can do it.”

I think that takes courage to say, but it's being true to what he wanted to do. To me, that's the most important thing: try to be authentic to who you are. I appreciated him being authentic when I think it came at a cost. He was castigated in the press and maybe on Twitter, and he had people leave.

But I think he ultimately said, “We want people who are authentic to Coinbase values articulated by me, the founder.”

Harry Stebbings

Have you ever been inauthentic to yourself?

Venky Ganesan

I think there are times when you say certain things to founders because you want them to like you or you want to win a deal that may not be truly authentic. What I'll tell you is that I have dealt with my own insecurities and feeling like an imposter, and I've gotten more comfortable in my skin now. I just don't do it.

If it means I have to say something inauthentic to me to win the deal, I'd rather not win it. But that's easy to say because I'm at the point in my life where that win doesn't matter. Of course I like to win, but it's not going to change my life.

I always say it's very different when you're 25 years old and you're trying to build your career. You do whatever it takes to win. In some way, morality is a privilege of the people who already succeeded. It's easy to be moral now when you already have the things you have.

The question is, will I be a moral person if I were to go back 20 years ago and start there? That's the real test, and I don't think I lived up to that test as much as I would like.

Harry Stebbings

Are you a better investor now that you're richer?

Venky Ganesan

Yes. You're not as afraid. You're not afraid of failure. You're willing to go all in and go to the hilt, so you can go for broke more easily.

Think about it on a poker table. The guy with the big amount of chips has so much leverage to win, right? They see more cards. Ironically, this is why I think the way our capitalist system is set up, the rich are going to get richer, because they have more opportunities to be the bully at the poker table.

Harry Stebbings

Does that mean emerging managers are just in the old starvation game? Forgive me for this, but I don't like binaries. I'm fucking media, so you kind of have to do binaries. “It depends” doesn't sell. The $30 million to $100 million funds are just the worst place to be.

Venky Ganesan

Yes, they are today. That's a tough place to be because you're playing at a poker table where people have such high chip stacks.

Harry Stebbings

I think they were five years ago, dude.

Venky Ganesan

I think what happens is, if you're lucky enough—and I don't know if this is true, but I'm sure if you were to go and look at the cap table—there was some small investor who wrote a check. Anjan wrote a check into Anthropic. Maybe he didn't have a fund then, but he wrote a check. You wrote a 30 to $50 million check. You wrote a check into the Anthropic round—not the $4 billion round we did, but much earlier. You're doing fine.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, but he was an angel, not competing for rounds. What I'm saying is that the $30 million to $100 million funds, where they need to move $1 million, $2 million, or $3 million, are kind of a pain to fit into rounds. Anjan putting in $100,000 or $200,000 is sure in.

Venky Ganesan

Yes. Your principle is right, but I'm just trying to think about counting. Think about conviction. How big was Sarah's fund? I want to say it was a $200 million fund, and she found a way to be in some of the most interesting companies out there. It can be done.

Harry Stebbings

And then you've got Dave Tisch, who I think would be a really good example as well, with BoxGroup. It goes against the portfolio construction that all LPs love: high ownership and a concentrated portfolio.

Venky Ganesan

There are always people who figure out how to play against the odds, right? But they are the best of the best, so you don't want to extrapolate.

In general, those are tough places to be unless you're exceptional. I was reading a tweet between Sarah and Patrick Grady, and Sarah was telling LPs, “My strategy is I'm just going to work harder.” That's probably the truth.

Everybody wants to have some magic strategy that nobody else is going to do. There's no magic strategy. Everybody in the venture industry is smart. You have to out-hustle and have grit to make it through, and Sarah definitely has that.

Harry Stebbings

Final one before we do a quick-fire. We mentioned private equity being challenged in a lot of ways by a lot of AI companies. We're seeing the keys being handed back at companies like Medallia. You're seeing a lot of struggling companies in the books of these private equity providers. Is private equity structurally fucked?

Venky Ganesan

Look, they're smart guys, and they know how to figure out and operate these companies. They also have majority control.

In some ways, the venture-backed companies—the SaaS companies where people paid high multiples—add tables and mirrors, and they got spooned, as I say. I think those are in a tougher situation.

Don't get me wrong; I think private equity is a challenge too. But the reason I say the venture-backed companies are in an even tougher situation is that, at least with private equity, you have a majority owner who controls the company and can do things.

You have a lot of zombie SaaS companies where nobody owns enough to be able to do anything. Nobody cares. How do you actually land that ship? At least with private equity, they can do something with it.

Landing that ship is going to be hard for everybody, but I think in that class of 2021 SaaS companies, the best outcome is getting spooned, which really means getting your capital back. The worst outcome is going to be zero.

Harry Stebbings

Good old Bending Spoons. European. Just going to put it out there.

The quick-fire is a combination of mine and Joff's questions—he's on your team.

Venky Ganesan

Joff. My partner.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, he came back with some bangers.

Why do you love pocket squares?

Venky Ganesan

When I was growing up, I didn't care about how I dressed, and I didn't put any effort into it until I had this one conversation with my dad, when he said, “Listen, when you dress, you're not dressing for yourself; you're dressing for others. You're showing them that this is an important meeting, that you're expressing the importance of what you're doing to them.”

I know my partners make fun of this, but I dress up for partner meetings because it's a self-message to me that the people I'm meeting are very important, and what I'm going to do is important. I need to take that very seriously.

Harry Stebbings

Now I feel guilty. Oh, Christ. Way to make me go. Yeah, Joff teed me up for that one, didn't he? I like that. It's really nice. I should probably think about that more.

You can invest in 1 seed fund and 1 growth fund that's not Menlo. Which funds do you invest in?

Venky Ganesan

I have tremendous respect for the Bessemer folks. I was a co-founder with Byron, and I've known David Kahan. I think they are super disciplined. If I could invest outside of Menlo, I would invest in Bessemer.

Harry Stebbings

That's for the growth fund.

Venky Ganesan

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

What about the seed fund?

Venky Ganesan

I'm looking for people who are going to be in interesting AI companies. There's this group of guys called E14 out of MIT, and I find them to be in interesting AI companies. They seem to really understand the MIT ecosystem.

Harry Stebbings

Who, when you hear you're competing against them, are you like, “Oh, fuck”?

Venky Ganesan

I think of more people than firms, but I would say Benchmark is super hard to beat.

Harry Stebbings

Is Benchmark harder to beat than Sequoia?

Venky Ganesan

I think so. Obviously, they're both great firms, but Benchmark is super hard to beat. Whatever they do—the combination of Eric, Chaitan, Avereh, and Jack—they are just a beast.

Harry Stebbings

What would be your single biggest piece of advice to an LP allocating into venture at this time?

Venky Ganesan

Look at the windshield, not the rear-view mirror. The results and financial performance are rear-view-mirror calculations, and they're good at telling you what they did in the past. They don't tell you how a firm is going to do.

Performance is a lagging indicator, and it's actually a 5- to 7-year lagging indicator. My advice would be to call a bunch of entrepreneurs from successful AI companies and ask them who the partners they respect are. My aim is they didn't take the money.

And if the firm you're talking to doesn't have a few of those partners in the mix, then that's your windshield.

Harry Stebbings

How do you stop your team getting arrogant? You guys have got the winning hand.

Venky Ganesan

You're only as good as your last investment. It doesn't matter if you're the lion or the antelope in the savanna. You wake up in the morning: if you're the lion and you don't run, you don't eat; if you're the antelope and you don't run, you don't live. You just have to run.

I feel like you have to think about the most important meeting being the next one. The most important investment is the next one. The most important board meeting is the next one. If you don't spend time in the present thinking about it, I think you lose in this game.

Harry Stebbings

What's the secret to marriage when you scale wealth over time together?

Venky Ganesan

Oh, wow. Well, you gotta marry someone better than you, which I did. Thank you. And you gotta convince her to stay with you—or him, whatever your preference might be. Finding a life partner who inspires you to be the best version of yourself and supports you in being that is, I think, critical.

If you can do that for each other, I think that'll work, because I think at the core of a long-term marriage is real respect. It's love and real respect, but I think respect is super important. That comes from inspiring each other to be the best version you can be.

Harry Stebbings

What's the best advice you've ever been given? You mentioned Mr. Steve Sloan and his father-in-law. His father-in-law is one of my closest friends, and he once said to me, “You're never wrong to do the right thing, but the right thing is very often the hard thing.”

Venky Ganesan

Yeah. I think the best advice I've gotten has really centered around being around people. I think Ronald Reagan has a quote that Tom Reilly, who's a CEO of Trigger, told me once: “There's no limit to what a person can do as long as they don't care who gets the credit.”

When I was early in my career, I was very focused on getting credit. I really thought, “Am I gonna get credit?” Then I let go of that and focused on just doing what's right and not worrying about whether I'm gonna get credit. That's actually been pretty freeing, and I think that's made me a better teammate.

Harry Stebbings

I love that. I don't think there's a better way to end it than that. Your humility is astonishing. It's really just—one, you're very calming. I almost feel like you should be on Headspace or Calm. And two, it's a wonderful humility that I rarely see in a venture investor. But thank you so much for doing this, Venky.

Venky Ganesan

You have too many successful people on your show. I'm trying to lower the bar for you.

Harry Stebbings

I've so enjoyed this. Thank you for doing it. And you see with shows like this why it's so much better in person. You can't have this virtually, so thank you for doing it.

Venky Ganesan

Thank you, Harry. I have to say, my colleague Claire was coming with me, and she said, “I watch Harry all the time. He has become my favorite show.” Especially the one you do with Rory and Jason. She said, “Oh, this has trumped the All-In podcast as my number one show.” So I have to say, you're getting fans all over the place.