Sourcery

Tony Kim × Molly O'Shea

AI has shifted value toward chips and hardware, with Kim estimating $30T+ there versus roughly $10T across software/services/internet.Base compute has jumped 10,000×, while the rebuild may require a trillion dollars this year and ten trillion over five years.Token factories may compress SaaS margins; memory and foundation-lab IPOs are watchpoints as Kim says his thesis may change.

Molly O'Shea × Adam Foroughi × Giovanni Ge

AppLovin rebuilt after a 92% post-IPO drawdown around Axon 2, with EBITDA run rate now over $7 billion.Semantic embeddings replaced Axon 1’s hundreds of thousands of if/else branches, improving extrapolation and lowering GPU costs while e-commerce showed decent ROAS on a premature model.Reaching a trillion-dollar valuation requires over $30 billion in annual cash flow, putting category expansion and creative execution under scrutiny.

Tony Kim × Molly O'Shea

AI has reset the market toward compute hardware, with Kim estimating more than $30T in chips and hardware versus roughly $10T in software, services, and internet.The resulting $1T of CapEx this year and $10T over five years is moving data centimeters and millimeters, but three-to-four-year fab cycles face memory shortages, making 2030 milestones such as quantum and orbital data centers key watchpoints.