Sohn Conference Foundation

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11B of ARR in March while tech reached its cheapest relative valuation in 10 years, making the drawdown a differentiated demand signal rather than a capitulation event.At a rumored $900B on $50B ARR, Baker estimates unconstrained run-rate revenue of $100–200B, while TSMC’s capacity choices remain the key bubble test and orbital compute threatens terrestrial power-and-cooling ramps.

Soren Aandahl × Joyce Meng × Zachary Datikash × Jim Chanos

“Fake AI” screens, private-capital crowding, and AI’s potential to commoditize software and white-collar services define the panel’s differentiated short signals.Evidence ranges from unverifiable AI claims and 1%-terminal-growth DCF sensitivity to three Mister Car Wash locations within one mile and software rivals adding features overnight.Catalysts remain uncertain: AI’s timing and duration, narrow breadth, and potentially stretched sponsors warrant monitoring.

Orlando Bravo × Leslie Picker

Bravo argues domain software incumbents—not only AI-natives—are positioned to deliver the agentic enterprise after 20–30 years automating workflows.Leadership and 5-to-1 ROI, not data or system-of-record status, are the durable edge; retention has held despite AI disruption.Key watchpoints are agentic ROI, exits, and refinancing as leverage falls from 7–7.5x to 5x and spreads widen 250bps.