Sohn Conference Foundation

Scott Goodwin

Private credit’s $2 trillion direct-lending slice grew as post-GFC rules pushed banks away from LBOs above 6x leverage, while BDC fees ran six-to-seven times CLO economics.AI-exposed SaaS loans were underwritten against ARR amid weaker covenants; Diameter says 40-50% of average portfolios carry AI risk, while 2021-22 maturities, divergent marks, and $150-200B of expected selling remain catalysts.

Rob Citrone × Karen Karniol-Tambour

Karen Karniol-Tambour says globalization, the US security umbrella, and easy money are giving way to “modern mercantilism,” which markets have “barely started pricing.”Rob Citrone runs 70% of risk outside the US and favors Latin America, including Argentina and Mexico, while watching four elections over the next 18 months.Karniol-Tambour shorts the dollar against the euro and yen and prefers foreign fixed income, while Citrone expects 10-year yields at 5–5.25% and names América Móvil.