Sohn Conference Foundation

Thea Jamison × Francis Dufay

EM’s 20% gain this year after 30% last year is framed as a long cycle, with 10x forward PE, twice US earnings growth, and just over 10% of market cap.Nigeria’s reforms and currency stabilization accompany a 170% rise, yet valuation remains under 7x earnings.Jumia serves $200–400 customers through direct-China sourcing, controlled distribution, and cost discipline; scale and demographics could catalyze growth.

Leon Shaulov × Alex Sacerdote × Leslie Picker

AI adoption may be far earlier than consensus: only 10 basis points of 1 billion white-collar workers use advanced agents, while Claude Code targets 500 million DAUs and power users consume a thousand times more compute.Foundation-model margins could be enormous, while WFE may rise from $120-130B to $300B in 3-4 years; sticky inflation, implementation hiring, and efficiency gains make the timing worth monitoring.

Steve Cohen × Jawad Mian

Steve Cohen sees slowing growth rather than recession as the base case, but assigns recession roughly 45% odds as tariffs imply a 14–17% rate.With next year’s growth around one and a half percent or lower, the Fed unlikely to act immediately, and multiples high, he sees limited upside; weaker data could expose a 10–15% retrace and tougher regime for tariff-exposed names.

Rob Citrone × Karen Karniol-Tambour

Karen Karniol-Tambour says globalization, the US security umbrella, and easy money are giving way to “modern mercantilism,” which markets have “barely started pricing.”Rob Citrone runs 70% of risk outside the US and favors Latin America, including Argentina and Mexico, while watching four elections over the next 18 months.Karniol-Tambour shorts the dollar against the euro and yen and prefers foreign fixed income, while Citrone expects 10-year yields at 5–5.25% and names América Móvil.