Sohn Conference Foundation

Andrew Bellas × Eduardo Marques × David Rosen × Jonathan Lennon × Mitch Golden

Deep-value investors see “literally no buyers” in momentum-driven flows, supporting Viatris (VTRS) at 7x current and 6x forward earnings with 100% cash conversion, while Idorsia (IDIA SW) offers a leveraged pipeline trade.Carvana combines 1% share of a $1T, 40,000-player market with projectable 30%+ growth, but Idorsia’s 6-9-month readouts, QUVIVIQ descheduling, and AI-driven “service-level deflation” at REA remain decisive catalysts and risks.

Leon Shaulov × Alex Sacerdote × Leslie Picker

AI adoption may be far earlier than consensus: only 10 basis points of 1 billion white-collar workers use advanced agents, while Claude Code targets 500 million DAUs and power users consume a thousand times more compute.Foundation-model margins could be enormous, while WFE may rise from $120-130B to $300B in 3-4 years; sticky inflation, implementation hiring, and efficiency gains make the timing worth monitoring.

Rahul Kishore

Axon combines over 85% U.S. police-department penetration, 95% recurring revenue on 7–10-year contracts, and an AI Era plan priced at $570 per officer monthly.Draft One saves about 11 hours of desk time weekly, while Axon’s data flywheel supports AI gross margins above 85%.The plan generated $750M in first-year bookings from essentially zero, yet Axon trades near a decade-low valuation as Kishore targets a potential three-year doubling.

Ryan Packard

AppLovin’s e-commerce vertical becomes generally available within the next 3 months, expanding beyond five years of primarily mobile-gaming growth.Nearly $4 billion of 2025 free cash flow, over 25% pre-tax ROIC, and projected 2030 GAAP EPS of $50 underpin Packard’s potential doubling thesis.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11B of ARR in March while tech reached its cheapest relative valuation in 10 years, making the drawdown a differentiated demand signal rather than a capitulation event.At a rumored $900B on $50B ARR, Baker estimates unconstrained run-rate revenue of $100–200B, while TSMC’s capacity choices remain the key bubble test and orbital compute threatens terrestrial power-and-cooling ramps.

Scott Goodwin

Private credit’s $2 trillion direct-lending slice grew as post-GFC rules pushed banks away from LBOs above 6x leverage, while BDC fees ran six-to-seven times CLO economics.AI-exposed SaaS loans were underwritten against ARR amid weaker covenants; Diameter says 40-50% of average portfolios carry AI risk, while 2021-22 maturities, divergent marks, and $150-200B of expected selling remain catalysts.

Soren Aandahl × Joyce Meng × Zachary Datikash × Jim Chanos

“Fake AI” screens, private-capital crowding, and AI’s potential to commoditize software and white-collar services define the panel’s differentiated short signals.Evidence ranges from unverifiable AI claims and 1%-terminal-growth DCF sensitivity to three Mister Car Wash locations within one mile and software rivals adding features overnight.Catalysts remain uncertain: AI’s timing and duration, narrow breadth, and potentially stretched sponsors warrant monitoring.

Connie Lee

nCino’s cloud lending platform combines over 90% recurring revenue, 40% incremental margins, and a recent 7% price increase with an $18B TAM that remains only 7% penetrated in commercial lending.Billings and backlog growth have reaccelerated after mortgage weakness, bank failures, and shareholder selling, but execution and a possible private-equity takeout remain the key risks to realizing the discount.

William Heard

William Heard pitches Adobe at $700, arguing Firefly’s licensed data and pixel-level control will entrench Adobe as enterprises demand commercially viable, rights-cleared AI content.Adobe reports over $3.5B in AI-influenced ARR, while Creative Cloud growth accelerated from 6% in 2023 to 24% this year.The thesis depends on continued monetization and pricing power against Canva, with management reaffirming guidance and $14B remaining on its $25B buyback program.