Invest Like the Best

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Alan Waxman

Waxman attributes private-credit stress to a factory model that industrialized fundraising and investing after 2018, with FRE multiples rising from 10–15x to 25–30x+ as underwriting standards weakened.Perpetual private BDC redemptions exceeding the 5% limit are not yet systemic in his view, but AI could reprice every industry, making matched liabilities, governed inflows, and strategy breadth critical.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × William Hockey

Column combines a bank’s regulatory permissions with software economics, earning 90%+ of revenue from per-API-call infrastructure for payments, deposits, and credit across fintech and emerging markets.Hockey’s debt-funded acquisition and near-bankruptcy experience shaped an earnings-funded, employee-owned model, while AI may reward banks and distribution-heavy brands; the open question is which specialized financial rails can compound without venture capital.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × John Arnold

China’s NIO built a robotic factory from shovel to first car in 17 months, with suppliers within 200 miles, highlighting a speed and supply-chain advantage over aging US plants.US energy demand is clear through 2030 but permitting is the bottleneck; delivered solar PPAs remain 50%+ above 2020 lows, while advanced geothermal is Arnold’s five-year call.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Mark Bertolini

Oscar Health is pursuing a defined-benefit-to-defined-contribution shift in healthcare, targeting 125 million people through individual ACA plans, while its cloud-native platform and “almost two dozen” LLMs support lower operating costs and disease-management economics.The CHOICE provision’s Senate removal over a $30B tax score underscores regulatory resistance, while Bertolini’s Aetna record—75% lower end-of-life costs and 652% eight-year TSR—illustrates the potential payoff from operational and benefit redesign.