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Invest Like the Best
Deep conversations with investors, founders, and operators about business quality, capital allocation, strategy, and enduring competitive advantage.
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Why Natural Gas Will Be AI’s Next Great Shortage
Patrick O'ShaughnessyMatthew Smith
Matthew Smith’s model points to US natural-gas storage falling below all historical levels by 2029 as contracted LNG and AI compute outstrip deliverability, with electricity prices bearing the impact in 2028-2030.The market remains priced near $3.50-3.60, while Expand Energy and Range offer leverage to a potential physical-gas scramble; processing, pipelines, nuclear timelines, and consumer costs remain key risks.
The World's Greatest Energy Trader on Markets, China, and AI
Patrick O'ShaughnessyJohn Arnold
China’s NIO built a robotic factory from shovel to first car in 17 months, with suppliers within 200 miles, highlighting a speed and supply-chain advantage over aging US plants.US energy demand is clear through 2030 but permitting is the bottleneck; delivered solar PPAs remain 50%+ above 2020 lows, while advanced geothermal is Arnold’s five-year call.
Zach Dell - Powering the Future - [Invest Like the Best, EP.434]
Patrick O'ShaughnessyZach Dell
US electricity demand could accelerate from a 2% to a 10% CAGR as EVs, AI infrastructure, and industrial electrification collide with a 5-10-year interconnection queue.Base deploys batteries behind existing meters for $500 upfront plus $16/month, targeting a 4-year unlevered payback while utility partnerships could temper volatile merchant energy revenues.