Invest Like the Best

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Eric Vishria

AI is likely to produce an oligopoly plus $100B specialists, not a single winner-take-all lab, while Fireworks shows inference’s hidden moat: roughly 5X speed and multiple-X throughput on the same models and NVIDIA hardware.SaaS incumbents now face “Get to AI or be worth three times revenue,” as migration becomes easier and cost, iteration speed, and transportability matter more, with energy—especially China’s roughly tenfold buildout next year—the key constraint.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Alex Sacerdote

Anthropic’s agentic coding release helped reverse Whale Rock’s view, supporting its August 2025 investment at the $180 valuation after it passed on the $60B round.Enterprise AI is less than 1% penetrated, yet Anthropic has only half the compute it needs, while a three-horse model oligopoly and infrastructure bottlenecks support monitoring adoption, supply, and the risk that open source catches up.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11 billion of ARR in one month, while Asian AWS prices doubled, GPU availability fell, and DRAM went vertical as reasoning increased inference demand.Baker sees compute-constrained revenue upside, but TSMC capacity remains the key test for whether AI becomes an infrastructure bubble.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Marc Andreessen

DeepSeek R1 makes frontier reasoning open, self-hostable, and roughly 30X cheaper, pressuring proprietary labs and NVIDIA while potentially expanding demand through Jevons Paradox.The shift intensifies U.S.–China competition over open technology infrastructure, with export controls, copyright, supply-chain dependence, and autonomous weapons creating catalysts and unresolved geopolitical risks.