Empire

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos × Haseeb × Zaki

GPT-56’s exploit for a PHP flaw known since 2004 shows AI making neglected vulnerabilities economic targets; Cloudflare reportedly saw attacks climb from hundreds hourly to millions.Haseeb sees model economics favoring DeepSeek’s cheap volume or Anthropic’s superior intelligence; OpenAI’s routing of Kimi K3 and GLM 5.3 could make it an enterprise control panel but may weaken OpenAI’s model-building incentive.

Michael Dempsey

AI vendors growing 6x in a market expanding 10x may be losing ground, while stack convergence could put $30 billion businesses at risk of displacement within nine months.Compound’s roughly 23-company portfolio includes 16 biotech businesses and only three AI investments, reflecting Dempsey’s preference for scientific ventures that control a route from discovery to commercialization.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos × Rob

AI-linked equities are repricing frontier-model financing, with 20–30% declines, routine 10% daily moves, and Anthropic’s apparent slowdown challenging the path from roughly $1 trillion of current capex to Jensen Huang’s roughly $4 trillion 2030 vision.CoreWeave debt near 15–16% and CDS implying roughly 60% default probability show how demand can be right while funding fails.Anthropic’s S-1 and neocloud refinancing are key tests as open-model substitution pressures margins.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

AI’s narrative dominance masks a possible crypto bull market, as Yano reports revived interest after 18 barren months and tokens that have increased 50 times.Anthropic’s reported $1 of revenue per $60 of compute, possible ARR stabilization, and customer switching leave frontier-model economics unresolved, while 1 gigawatt of AI capacity costs $50–60 billion.Falling inference costs could strand capacity or trigger Jevons’ paradox, as LPs seek crypto’s growth-stage fintech opportunity as a countercyclical alternative to crowded AI.

Jason Yanowitz × Matthew Prince

Automated traffic has already surpassed human traffic, and Prince says agentic traffic could reach 1,000 times human traffic in five years, challenging ad-funded models.Cloudflare is pursuing a micropayments rail targeting roughly 10 million transactions per second, but regulation, capacity and preserving free access remain unresolved.

Santiago Roel Santos × Rob

AI fatigue is reaching institutional LPs as router savings and cheaper open-source models threaten frontier-model pricing within 12 to 18 months.Robinhood’s $1.3B quarter and $12B of Chain DEX volume make it a key real-time gauge for capital rotation, while declining active accounts and uncertain chain winners keep tokenized-asset adoption unresolved.

Jason Yanowitz × Vishal Garg

Better’s mortgage platform runs at an $8B annualized origination rate, with platform revenue above 50% and production costs under $2,000.AI standardizes agency rules; tokenization could cut capital costs 25–100bps, but the planned $500M Sky facility is not live.Coinbase’s product produced a 6.5% fixed-rate mortgage without margin calls; Garg targets adjusted-EVA breakeven by September and calls AI essential.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Anthropic’s Fable was released around June 9 and blocked from export three or four days later, turning AI’s job-loss narrative into a regulatory and political liability.Jordy calls MicroStrategy panic way overblown as Saylor raises about $200M weekly, while Santi sees eventual Monte Carlo failure; open-source models and smart routing may matter more than privacy maximalism, but government restrictions remain an unresolved risk.

Agentic AI may make memory less cyclical: Micron rose 80%, Intel 85% and SanDisk about 50%, though oversupply remains a risk.Circle raised $222M for Arc at a reported $3B valuation, potentially avoiding Coinbase’s 50% net-interest-margin share, but token value capture remains disputed.Anthropic’s SPV crackdown threatens tokenized-equity exposure, with on-chain exposure reportedly near $400B versus roughly $900B.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Delphi is tactically long on Iran’s ceasefire, but Yan’s base case is that negotiations break down, while Jason urges defense.Iran potentially charging tanker tolls in Bitcoin or yuan could strengthen BTC’s neutral-store-of-value narrative, though the room called it mostly a headline.Possible SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs could compete for finite dry powder, while private/public marks warrant scrutiny.