SHOW DIRECTORY
Dwarkesh Podcast
Deeply researched interviews.
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How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires? – Si Sheppard
Spain’s conquests were coalition takeovers: indigenous allies supplied most manpower, while horses, steel, and firearms created a decisive initial battlefield and psychological edge.Capturing Moctezuma and Atahualpa exploited centralized systems with a single point of failure, allowing tiny forces to decapitate local elites and seize control.The longer-term advantage came from reusable knowledge, naval power, disease, migration, and organization, while Potosí silver globalized trade but weakened Spain through a resource curse.
Elon Musk – "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
Musk predicts space will be the cheapest place to put AI within 30-36 months, as terrestrial electricity stays flat while orbit delivers roughly 5x solar power without batteries.Gas turbines are sold out through 2030, making power the near-term bottleneck before chips; TeraFab, SpaceX’s hyperscaler ambition, and xAI’s MacroHard remain contingent on execution and China’s industrial lead.
Sarah Paine – Why Russia Lost the Cold War
The Soviet collapse emerged from converging pressures: defense spending reached 40–50% of GNP, oil revenues masked economic rot, and central planning produced unusable information.Paine’s warning is that the West barely won; alliance strength, institutions, and Marshall Plan-style win-wins remain the variables to monitor in Cold War II.
Sarah Paine – How Hitler almost starved Britain
Narrow seas constrain China and Russia: Ukraine showed drones, shore ordnance, and planes can force a navy from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.A Taiwan war could destroy the chip foundry, while sanctions cutting Chinese growth by 1–2pp would stretch doubling time from 25 to 75 years.The Atlantic’s outcome depended on radar, cryptography, escorts, production, and alliances, making coalition cohesion the live variable.
Sarah Paine — Why Japan lost WWII (lecture & interview)
Sarah Paine argues that net assessment must include adversary culture, not just American actions, because Bushido equated willpower with strategy and operational victories with strategic success.Japan never exceeded 1/13th of US steel and coal output, while stovepiped commands hid losses and failed to protect shipping; the same framework points to risks involving Russia, sanctions, and unlimited war aims.