All-In

Jared Isaacman

NASA is shifting capital from consensus-driven programs toward explicit national objectives, targeting Artemis 3 in summer 2027 and Artemis 4 in 2028.Repeated lunar missions could create demand for landers, rovers, and resource experiments, while public funding concentrates on fission power and nuclear-electric propulsion.SR1 Freedom’s 2028 target, uncertain lunar returns, and China’s ambitions make execution and launch capacity key watchpoints.

David Friedberg × Shyam Sankar × Trae Stephens

US military power is increasingly constrained by factory capacity, with Ukraine consuming “10 years of production in 10 weeks,” a 10,000-to-one drone gap, and a 223x shipbuilding disadvantage versus China.Anduril’s five-million-square-foot Arsenal-1 is designed as a modular manufacturing platform for attritable systems, addressing the economics of replacing $2 million interceptors with $20,000 drones.The high-low mix may shift massively over five to 10 years, but Stephens estimates roughly 18 months even with unlimited cash to establish a sustainable industrial base.

Jacob Helberg × Michael Kratsios × Chris Power × Jake Loosararian × Shyam Sankar × Paul Buchheit × Kelly Loeffler

Washington’s 90-action AI plan links innovation, data centers, energy, manufacturing, and global ecosystem reach to national security, with actions targeted for completion within six to nine months.The bottleneck is shifting from model intelligence to physical capacity, with Hadrian reporting 4x manufacturing productivity, 10x workforce productivity, 30-day training, and an Arizona factory planned at four times Los Angeles’s size.Energy efficiency, worker-led deployment, small-business adoption, fragmented state regulation, and offshore competition remain key catalysts and risks for the reshoring thesis.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Cyan Banister

The LA fires expose a governance and insurance failure, with catastrophe risk repriced toward 1-in-20 while regulation drives carriers from high-value neighborhoods.Rebuilding economics are impaired by $3M insurance caps versus $7–8M median homes, $1,000 per square foot costs, and Coastal Commission delays lasting decades.The unresolved burden falls on homeowners, insurers, or taxpayers, while Nvidia’s $3,000 edge-compute bet and Greenland’s shipping strategy offer separate competitive signals to monitor.