All-In

David Friedberg × Ray Dalio

Dalio sees an unstable U.S. fiscal path—about $7 trillion of spending against $5 trillion of revenue, debt equal to 600% of annual receipts, and $9 trillion to roll—making foreign Treasury demand and eventual Fed balance-sheet expansion central risks.He favors 5%-15% gold for diversification, while Bitcoin remains a smaller, more controllable, tech-correlated market; meanwhile, AI may transform productivity even as competition destroys returns for many AI companies.

Jeremy Allaire × George Kurtz × Adam Goldstein × Chase Lochmiller

Circle sees regulated USDC becoming an internet-scale financial network addressing roughly $120 trillion in legal electronic money, with lower rates potentially accelerating adoption even as reserve yield declines.CrowdStrike says AI is compressing attack timelines and enabling prompt-only malware, driving its shift from endpoint detection and response to AIDR as employees gain roughly 90 agents each.Archer expects visible US eVTOL demonstrations in summer 2026 across five trial cities, with Los Angeles and its Anduril defense derivative offering catalysts beyond eventual passenger certification.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Alan Keating

Tether’s stablecoin model converts dollar demand into a high-margin Treasury-yield engine, with scale and distribution supporting extraordinary economics while falling rates, regulation and competition from Circle, Stripe, Visa and others threaten its margins.Google’s Gemini 3 gains share as custom silicon broadens the long-run challenge to Nvidia, while Huawei remains a conditional catalyst whose potential lithography progress could matter around 2027.

Cathie Wood

Wood says five converging platforms—robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain and multiomic sequencing—could lift real GDP growth toward “7% plus,” aided by Trump’s tax package.Robotaxis may monetize first, but sequencing, AI and CRISPR make healthcare AI her “most inefficiently priced” opportunity.ARK’s official Bitcoin bull case is $1.5 million, versus $3.8 million from portfolio optimization; Tesla’s $2,600 target and disruption’s rerating depend on execution.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Gavin Baker × Bo Hines × Bill Hagerty

A Powell firing could damage Fed independence while refinancing $36 trillion of debt near the 5% 30-year yield pushes interest expense toward $2 trillion.GENIUS makes regulated dollar stablecoins payment infrastructure and a potential Treasury-demand catalyst, while CLARITY remains the next legislative milestone.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Friedberg × Thomas Laffont × David Sacks

Meta is treating AI as a threat to perhaps half of its $1.7 trillion value, pairing reported $100 million talent offers with a $14 billion-plus Scale AI stake.That insurance addresses labeling and agent knowledge, but Chamath says Meta still lacks tightly coupled compute and silicon, making infrastructure integration the key risk as the Mag 7 separates into distinct AI wagers.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Joe Lonsdale

The panel frames tariffs as a border lever, industrial-policy experiment, and attempt to rebase dollar dependence, with predictable rates favoring commodities and sectors that have domestic substitutes.CoreWeave shows the other side of the AI infrastructure trade: $1.9 billion of 2024 revenue and 250,000 Nvidia GPUs alongside almost $8 billion of debt, nearly $1 billion of losses, and roughly 60% Microsoft concentration.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Antonio Gracias

Crypto’s policy path is stablecoin legislation followed by a FIT21-style market-structure bill, with Sacks citing alignment among all four relevant committee chairs and passage within several months as plausible.Google’s $75B 2025 capex plan looks like a utilization and ROIC test: a 20% return plus six-year amortization requires roughly $27B in incremental annual operating profit.A US sovereign wealth fund remains divided between strategic reinvestment and disciplined asset sales, while GLP-1 benefits and muscle and bone-density loss remain unresolved.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Gavin Baker

Reasoning models, test-time compute and control of infrastructure could shift AI economics toward full-stack providers, while enterprise software faces agent-driven pricing compression.Stablecoins processed roughly $8.5 trillion of second-quarter 2024 volume, and Chamath predicted dollar-denominated usage could quadruple or quintuple during 2025 by reducing payment friction.The panel also expects catalysts across HBM, robotics, autonomy and M&A, but a banking rupture remains a low-probability tail risk with potentially extreme CDS payoffs.