Rory Johnston

Rory Johnston

Physical shortages are arriving at tanker speed: Gulf shut-ins of roughly 13 million barrels a day are already showing up in Asian jet fuel above $200, refinery run cuts, and Italian airport rationing.Even immediate reopening would leave more than 400 million barrels unproduced and potentially over 800 million lost by summer’s end; $144 dated Brent, $110 June futures, and diesel cracks near $90 make restored traffic—and further infrastructure attacks—the decisive variables.