Jordan Nanos

Jordan Nanos × Doug O'Laughlin × Max Kan × Joey Brookhart

“Pacing” would slow Anthropic’s capability progress without halting training or compute purchases, potentially weakening its strongest internal model.Near-term scarcity and safety workloads keep compute demand elevated, while semiconductor signals increasingly depend on frontier-lab ARR and capacity premiums.Bank hacks, data leaks, or AI-assisted biological attacks could accelerate regulation.

Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros × Reyk Knuhtsen × Jordan Nanos

SemiAnalysis argues SpaceX could bring 10 GW of AI capacity online in 2027, selling scarce “emergency megawatts” for roughly $50 million per MW-year.Modeled frontier inference near $100 million per MW-year could repay GPUs in under a year and make NVIDIA financing plausible.Microsoft’s late-2027–28 capacity gap supports demand, while permitting, chips, uptime and political restrictions remain risks.

Jon Y × Doug O'Laughlin × Jordan Nanos

Google’s talent drain, including Jeff Dean, John Jumper, Noam Shazeer, and David Silver, raises questions about whether system-level judgment can be replaced by more compute.The risk is execution, not earnings: Google may remain highly profitable and strong in TPUs while quietly losing frontier-model leadership, as agentic coding accelerates demand for bespoke software and Terafab faces a heroic physical ramp.

Jordan Nanos × Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros × Joey Brookhart × Crystal Huang

AWS’s margins are rising while it adds more than a gigawatt of capacity per quarter, signaling a shift toward higher-margin Bedrock token sales.Claude represents an estimated 80%-93% of Bedrock usage, while Anthropic’s API-led growth reaches $47 billion ARR.Whether this operating leverage survives stabilized utilization, coding-token cuts, and the SpaceX/xAI capacity deal remains the key risk.