Jonah Van Bourg

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Global crude could hit operational tank bottoms by September: inelastic demand and an 8mbd supply loss could keep oil above $100, though Avi says $200 would force resolution within two months.A 50% chance of a December rate hike and Kevin Warsh’s possible real-time CPI rebase create an underpriced catalyst for equities and an even harsher risk for crypto, while Jonah argues AI’s marginal dollar remains far from exhausted.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Oil's $120 spike appears driven by consensus short covering, while force majeure leaves physical traders with naked financial hedges and July implied daily volatility near $6.50 versus $1 normal.A 90% chance of resolution within weeks points to Saudi supply and forced re-hedging as downside catalysts, while prolonged Hormuz closure remains the 10% stagflation risk behind six-month gold calls.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The Hormuz shock showed that oil supply can be closed financially through insurance even when no tanker is attacked, while gamma-driven selling helped reverse a historic spike.Jonah sees $88 oil as mostly geopolitical premium against a potential glut and prefers expressions with limited negative convexity; the G7’s 400M cumulative SPR pledge and Iran’s unchanged China exports are key catalysts.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

AI infrastructure builders may accumulate “astronomical” capital before AGI, which Avi thinks “might be” 7 years out, while 50% of spending comes from top 10% least likely displaced.The expression is utilities and construction near data-center builds rather than natural gas, while Bitcoin remains unresolved: Jonah sees 60k as the bottom, but Avi wants a hard bounce off a 60k retest.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s 85–90k consolidation, muted funding, and restrained open interest support Avi’s “new all-time-high run” thesis, with 100K as the supply-activation threshold.Both hosts remain bearish on memecoins in aggregate, favoring shorts only after a 60–70% impulse move in high-FDV, low-float tokens against Bitcoin.Regime change could remove state-linked BTC selling and may make seized coins the foundation of the SPR, while Venezuela’s oil reserves offer little near-term supply and Iran remains the larger catalyst and risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Avi Felman’s portfolio pairs index beta with HOOD’s global gambling-culture bet, while gold, silver, uranium, and Tesla target macro and technology shifts.Gold warehoused in Shanghai has 7x'd in the last year, and Canada and Germany are changing their tune on nuclear power.Uranium via URA, central-bank accumulation, HOOD’s social feed, and Tesla’s public robotics access are catalysts to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s halving structurally reduces miner issuance, but Avi argues that a 50% decline in ETF inflows could offset its roughly $7 million-$10 million reduction in daily selling.Repeated rejection near $70,000-$72,000 and activated supply make a pullback toward $52,000 plausible, while geopolitical escalation could hurt crypto risk assets before strengthening Bitcoin’s monetary use case.