Gavin Baker

Gavin Baker

Gavin Baker calls Anthropic’s S-1 an upside surprise: about half the Fortune 500 has adopted it, with encouraging profitability, cash generation and unit economics.Open-weight infrastructure companies outgrow OpenAI and Anthropic as demand broadens, while GPU rental prices rose daily in October and forward capacity remains expensive into 2027.Potential IPOs and higher cloud pricing could ease reliance on external financing for the 2027 build-out, though Baker is unsure whether external financing has peaked.

David George × Gavin Baker

AI demand accelerated through July and August, with usage concentrated among possibly sub-10 million heavy users and no leader identifying a worsening quantitative metric.Nebius suggests nine-to-ten-month paybacks on $50B-per-gigawatt builds, supported by 50-60% customer prepayments; undersupply through ’28 could lift token prices, while shifting capacity to training could cut lab revenue from $480B to $120B.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11B of ARR in March while tech reached its cheapest relative valuation in 10 years, making the drawdown a differentiated demand signal rather than a capitulation event.At a rumored $900B on $50B ARR, Baker estimates unconstrained run-rate revenue of $100–200B, while TSMC’s capacity choices remain the key bubble test and orbital compute threatens terrestrial power-and-cooling ramps.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11 billion of ARR in one month, while Asian AWS prices doubled, GPU availability fell, and DRAM went vertical as reasoning increased inference demand.Baker sees compute-constrained revenue upside, but TSMC capacity remains the key test for whether AI becomes an infrastructure bubble.