Avi Felman

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

A sovereign-authorized USDT oil purchase, despite a failed $230M Venezuelan deal, signals stablecoins entering commodity settlement while the underlying failure reflected diligence, not crypto.AI-driven copper scarcity and Meta’s frontier push sharpen the competitive map, but model prices at 1–10% of frontier offerings and a roughly two-year superintelligence timeline leave unresolved disruption risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The yen intervention may be a Treasury backstop designed to prevent Japanese reserve sales from pushing U.S. yields higher, reinforcing a policy regime where Washington’s favored assets and lower rates shape positioning.Avi sees metals rotating as central-bank selling reverses, while Jonah prefers copper’s supply bottleneck and direct exposure; crypto remains resilient, but HOOD offers a higher-margin expression and political risk could redefine the rally.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Only 2.2% of US households pay for AI subscriptions, leaving a large adoption runway that could flow to Micron, MSFT, Meta and Google.A 40% memory drawdown has not ended Avi’s thesis, but Korean margin calls show bubble-like leverage, making forced selling and earnings misses the risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Global crude could hit operational tank bottoms by September: inelastic demand and an 8mbd supply loss could keep oil above $100, though Avi says $200 would force resolution within two months.A 50% chance of a December rate hike and Kevin Warsh’s possible real-time CPI rebase create an underpriced catalyst for equities and an even harsher risk for crypto, while Jonah argues AI’s marginal dollar remains far from exhausted.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Oil's $120 spike appears driven by consensus short covering, while force majeure leaves physical traders with naked financial hedges and July implied daily volatility near $6.50 versus $1 normal.A 90% chance of resolution within weeks points to Saudi supply and forced re-hedging as downside catalysts, while prolonged Hormuz closure remains the 10% stagflation risk behind six-month gold calls.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn argues that post-COVID volatility is pushing consumers toward second-order event trades and cross-asset exposure, making perps the instrument for “the perpification of everything.”Ostium is positioning as a broker layer that puts existing global markets on chain rather than rebuilding exchange infrastructure, while its traders’ early stagflation positioning highlights both signal quality and sharp P&L risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Hyperliquid is moving beyond crypto speculation as trade XYZ reached 2% of global crude volumes, while token dispersion makes revenue and growth more relevant than broad beta exposure.Perpetuals may attract flat-price commodity trading and 24/7 venues offer a claimed 35% revenue lift, but dated futures, institutional hedging, DeFi security, and Washington’s regulatory decisions remain key adoption constraints.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The Hormuz shock showed that oil supply can be closed financially through insurance even when no tanker is attacked, while gamma-driven selling helped reverse a historic spike.Jonah sees $88 oil as mostly geopolitical premium against a potential glut and prefers expressions with limited negative convexity; the G7’s 400M cumulative SPR pledge and Iran’s unchanged China exports are key catalysts.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Catrini’s 2028 scenario argues AI agents could erase services-economy friction, cut $150–500k SaaS jobs to $45k Uber work, and push prime-borrower defaults from private credit into insurance.Both hosts call collapse very unlikely by 2028, yet agree AI is deflationary: rates could go to zero, making volatility, policy response, and the pace of displacement key variables.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin at 78K sits in Avi’s original 71–77 buy zone after a 40% drawdown, with a proposed stop below 74 and take-profit near 90, though Jonah sees a broken four-year cycle and no momentum.Metals remain a falling-knife risk as CTA selling may be only 25% complete, while Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 has exceeded $1B in RWA volume and makes HYPE the panel’s conviction long.