Andrew Walker

Andrew Walker × Tolu Bukola

DraftKings’s underappreciated iGaming business exceeds 20% of revenue, grows 20%-25%, and may already generate $300-$500M of EBITDA while sports betting roughly breaks even.Betfair’s 20-plus-year, roughly 5% share counters the prediction-market threat, but nationwide reach, lower fees, and no state gaming taxes make the 2027 or 2028 Supreme Court path a key catalyst, with unregulated 50% share a key risk.

Andrew Walker × Phillip Namara

Volaris is framed as a mispriced merger option: about $10 a share standalone versus $20–25 if its merger with Viva Aerobus closes.Bus conversion, Interjet’s roughly $8 fare step-up, P&W restoration by end-2027 and 3–6% revenue synergies support upside, but regulatory approval remains decisive.

Andrew Walker × Guowei Zhang

AT&T’s $22.7 billion EchoStar purchase inferred a 50% premium for 600 MHz, signaling that “the spectrum market has reset.”After debt and taxes, Guowei’s math puts $SATS’s floor in the low-to-mid-$50s per share within one to two years, before AWS-4’s potential roughly $80.The key risk is a $5 billion D2D build that could strand AWS-4 value behind SpaceX and Amazon, pending FCC approval.

Andrew Walker × Guowei Zhang

Guowei Zhang values EchoStar’s spectrum at roughly $60 billion against about $13 billion of wireless debt, assigning zero value to Hughes and Dish TV.The network is about 70% cheaper to build but burns $600 million-$700 million quarterly and could reach zero cash by Q3 2026.Bankruptcy may enable an orderly spectrum sale, but FCC discretion and AWS-3/AWS-4 convert treatment leave realization uncertain.

Andrew Walker × Ben Kelleran

Sable Offshore’s Santa Ynez restart is nearing a regulatory inflection point: its first platform is producing into the onshore facility, but commercial sales await State Fire Marshal certification amid litigation.Low decline, 80% fixed lifting costs, and potential 70,000-barrel-per-day output support Kelleran’s roughly $1.2 billion EBITDA estimate against $3–3.5 billion EV.Certification, the $800 million–$1 billion Exxon PIK refinancing, and roughly 14% short interest frame the catalysts and risks.

Andrew Walker × Byrne Hobart

Irwin’s history finds tariffs imposed deadweight loss but often “not that big a deal,” while containerization and integrated intermediate-goods networks make that reassurance an imperfect guide to today.Protection then becomes a slow political attrition contest favoring marginal producers, with Trump’s unusual Republican alignment, presidential discretion, and the unmeasured value of US security and dollar assets leaving modern incidence and durability unresolved.

Andrew Walker

March’s selloff was far more violent beneath the indices, with the Russell 2000 down about 10% in one month and cyclicals pricing an “absolute depression.”Walker says opportunity cost—not purchase-price anchoring—should redirect capital among researched names, while repaired balance sheets may reduce cyclicals’ bankruptcy risk.Management access can still delay re-underwriting, leaving leverage, governance and business durability as decisive risks.

Andrew Walker × Sahm Adrangi

ACMR trades near $23 against roughly $70 DCF, $60-$110 comparables, and approximately $73 per share from its 82% ACM Shanghai stake.Localization drove revenue from $30 million in 2016 toward 2025 guidance of $850-$950 million, while restrictions may accelerate domestic-tool adoption.A Hong Kong listing or sale could narrow the gap, but urgency, inventory, governance, and U.S. ownership restrictions remain risks.