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Latent Space · · 45 min

[State of RL/Reasoning] IMO/IOI Gold, OpenAI o3/GPT-5, and Cursor Composer — Ashvin Nair, Cursor

Ashvin Nair

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TL;DR
  • Ashvin Nair’s core thesis is that today’s RL is a “very peaky” instrument: it can “kill the training distribution completely” yet generalize weakly outside it. The near-term value pool therefore belongs to products that pull a worker’s real context into distribution—codebases, terminals, documents, Slack, accumulated experiments—and co-design the model around that workflow; raw model capacity may not be the bottleneck.
  • Olympiad gold no longer maps cleanly to economic automation: Ashvin once thought IMO gold meant “we could all just go on vacation,” yet “life is still the same.” He and the hosts explain the mismatch through benchmark selection and community-level overfitting: a model can jump from ordinary developer competence to elite competition performance while still missing the context required for everyday jobs.
  • Robotics remains earlier and less monetizable than software agents despite impressive laundry-folding demos. The host compared robotics to the “GPT-1 to GPT-2 era”; Ashvin emphasized hints of generalization but said robotics still feels more like an investment in a team than a proven technology. He expects LLM agents to become a trillion-dollar market before AI robotics is maybe even a $10 billion market, because physical systems must still prove usefulness, reliability, maintenance economics, and generalization.
  • Reasoning RL arrived as a smooth internal scaling curve, not one miraculous release, once pretrained models became capable enough. A small 2023 prototype produced unusually accurate reasoning traces and surprisingly strong math scores on a small model—performance that otherwise would have required much more pretraining; by early 2024, Ashvin says the recipe made IMO and IOI wins predictable, while public “leaps” concealed stacked experiments and steady month-to-month gains.
  • At OpenAI, the internal-to-public lead has shrunk from roughly six months to perhaps one or two, while labs converge on “similarish” RL recipes. Ashvin saw no major internal lesson from DeepSeek—OpenAI already had a better model and smarter models remained valuable—but noted that even Anthropic’s Opus 4.5 showed an ARC-AGI-2 plot resembling OpenAI’s.
  • Cursor’s wedge is tight product-model co-design, embodied by online Tab policy updates about every two hours and a 20–25-person ML group behind Composer. Composer is “smart enough” to use but fast enough to avoid context switching; the larger ambition is to automate the whole software-engineering loop—write code, inspect Datadog, form hypotheses, rerun, and learn.
  • The biggest prospective discontinuity is continual learning with human-like data efficiency, not another static benchmark win. Models repeat bugs even within one context, whereas a person can watch someone touch a hot stove once and learn. Ashvin calls the idea deeply interesting; the host suspects it could be paradigm-shifting within a year, but Ashvin explicitly says he has “no idea” what that shift might be.
  • Governance remains unresolved whether AGI arrives in two years or ten. During OpenAI’s “blip,” Ashvin signed the employee letter but was willing to set equity aside for a real governance debate; he wonders whether broad public-company ownership could be more democratic than seven nonprofit directors, while conceding that capitalism already mishandles social media and unhealthy food.
Digest · the substance, structured for research

1. Software agents should monetize long before robotics

  • Ashvin’s path from Berkeley robotics to OpenAI and Cursor felt less discontinuous than it sounds: both domains demand inspecting large amounts of messy data and persisting when systems refuse to work. Robotics builds “very gritty people” because, unlike simulation, they have no choice but to confront the real world.

  • Ashvin had not seen the Sunday robots himself, though he found the reported demos “kind of cool”; the host had seen Physical Intelligence robots live, folding laundry in an ordinary living room. Ashvin tied the potential inflection point to the kind of generalization associated with GPT-2, while saying the details matter and robotics still feels more like a bet on a team than a proven technology.

  • His market call is stark: “LLM agents are going to be like a trillion-dollar market before robotics is maybe even like a $10 billion market.” Agents already create value; robots still need useful tasks, reliable hardware, repairs, and viable unit economics.

2. Olympiad gold revealed how little benchmark supremacy guarantees

  • Ashvin once treated IMO gold as an end state: “I would have just assumed that we could all just go on vacation—AI is solved.” The result arrived, yet ordinary life barely changed. Chess and Go produced the same surprise, but the mismatch remains jarring each time.

  • The hosts’ explanation was that people move the AGI goalposts; Ashvin partly defended that move because the community collectively optimizes whatever benchmark it chooses. The host juxtaposed this with language models that appear at roughly junior-to-senior developer level on normal work yet can win elite programming competitions; Ashvin called that mismatch suspicious.

  • His own 2017–22 RL field supplied the warning. Academic work appeared to advance through off-policy learning, value functions, and new mathematical machinery, while an RL winter saw entire startups founded on the premise later give up. In retrospect, researchers had created knobs and implicitly tuned them to shared benchmarks at community scale.

  • Academia compounded the problem by rewarding mathematically interesting novelty over “simple ideas that work.” Methods that actually work tend to be simple, have fewer knobs, and rely more on compute, but also offer less publishable “secret sauce”—a poor incentive structure for discovering what generalizes.

3. Reasoning RL worked when pretraining crossed the right threshold

  • Ashvin credits a long OpenAI lineage, including Ilya Sutskever and Jakub Pachocki, with having “AGI in their bones.” Dota already contained the template: copying the internet would eventually plateau, while RL could generate better intelligence. RLHF was a limited side branch because human feedback could not absorb comparable compute.

  • The turning point came around 2023. Running RL on even a small model produced reasoning traces that were unusually accurate and surprisingly strong math scores—performance that otherwise would have required much more pretraining. Like GPT-2 before GPT-3, the prototype demanded first-principles conviction before its raw performance made the opportunity obvious.

  • Progress then felt continuous inside OpenAI: experiments produced incremental gains, inconclusive ideas were stacked, and resources followed the new line. By early 2024, Ashvin thought it predictable that the recipe could “really smash” IMO or IOI, even though external observers experienced releases as abrupt breakthroughs.

  • The host cited roughly 300 people around reasoning versus a dozen faces in the original o1 video. Ashvin resisted that accounting: the early contributor set was probably 50–200, and as o3 became a product, safety, evaluation, and other functions expanded participation until he had “lost track of the numbers.”

4. Job automation requires putting the entire workflow in distribution

  • Scaling is not over, but Ashvin thinks its shape has changed. Current RL generalizes somewhat and in interesting ways, yet remains “very peaky”: it can dominate its training distribution with modest effort without transferring broadly enough to automate work.

  • The requirement is therefore to bring economically useful tasks into the training distribution. GDPval has roughly the right form: it covers 128 tasks across white-collar jobs accounting for more than 5% of GDP and tries to stay close to source documents rather than sanitized model inputs. Ashvin had not examined its traces closely enough to know what an accountant’s job and required context actually entail, underscoring that the product must expose the real workflow, not just an eval.

  • Ashvin’s OpenAI research job illustrates the missing context. He wrote relatively little code while spending a year running sweeps, studying hyperparameter interactions, and accumulating knowledge across graphs that mostly “were just sitting in my head.” A coding model could write the scripts yet remain unable to reproduce the job without that accumulated context.

  • The host read separate GPT-5 and GPT-5 Codex lines as evidence that “one model fits all” was dying. Ashvin’s pushback: “OpenAI has a tendency to shift the org chart.” Specialization may reflect which organization owns the data, not model capacity; with all relevant data, joint training might still produce useful cross-domain generalization.

5. Frontier competition compresses both forecasts and release windows

  • At the Curve conference, forecasters expected only 10–20% on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath and Humanity’s Last Exam around 2027, while Ashvin had already seen internal models exceeding those estimates. Some of the same people contemplated Dyson spheres by 2035: potentially “too pessimistic in the short term, too optimistic in the long term.”

  • He nevertheless respects that community for registering predictions rather than claiming afterward, “I saw this the whole time.” Its older capability forecasts were directionally stronger than the prevailing view that AI was a sham, and Ashvin put human-level intelligence somewhere in the “2030-ish” range.

  • At OpenAI, the host said internal models had once been about six months ahead of public releases; Ashvin estimated the current lead time at roughly one to two months. The host invoked Nano Banana Pro as an example of how quickly a lead can matter, while Ashvin emphasized that the release window is now “tiny.”

  • DeepSeek surprised Ashvin more through its market impact than its technical message: he said it showed NVIDIA chips were more useful than previously thought, yet NVIDIA’s stock fell. OpenAI already had a better model, and labs soon converged on similar RL forms; Anthropic’s Opus 4.5 even displayed an ARC-AGI-2 plot resembling OpenAI’s.

6. OpenAI’s crisis left the central governance question unanswered

  • Ashvin learned of Sam Altman’s firing during Thanksgiving with two OpenAI friends and initially took it as a joke. After “a crazy weekend of just ups and downs,” he joined roughly 95% of people in signing the letter—but his reasoning was more conflicted than simple loyalty.

  • He considers governance important whether AGI is two years away, ten years away, or further. During the crisis he was prepared to “forget about the equity” and debate the structure seriously; he also wondered whether a Microsoft-style board, whose stakeholders might include the public through pensions, could be more democratic than seven people running a nonprofit.

  • When the host later asked whether OpenAI’s nonprofit had a better “secret shadow board” structure for determining AGI, Ashvin had no answer. His honest conclusion was that society has “not solved governance at all.” If capitalistic incentives already fail to produce healthy outcomes around food and social media, there is little basis for confidence in AGI governance.

7. Cursor is betting that product-model proximity beats laboratory scale

  • The host’s pushback was direct: OpenAI has effectively unlimited resources, abundant data, and Codex, so why leave? Ashvin’s answer was organizational. Cursor offered a small, focused environment where product and ML teams sit together and can deliberately pull the product’s test distribution into RL training.

  • Online Tab is the clearest specimen: Cursor can update its policy about every two hours. Ashvin disputed that this was merely easier because autocomplete uses a smaller model; the enabling factor was a compact organization able to connect user behavior, product decisions, and training rapidly.

  • Cursor’s ML group is only 20–25 people, and Ashvin was pleasantly surprised by Composer’s quality. Its appeal is not just intelligence but latency: it is “smart enough” that users want it, yet fast enough for them to stay in the loop. Slower smart models induce context switching that “kind of gives you ADHD.”

  • The destination is broader than answering prompts. Cursor wants the model to perform software engineering as a process: write code, inspect Datadog, diagnose behavior, form a hypothesis, rerun the system, and iterate. Internal tooling lets researchers SSH into user environments and stay close to the data—the durable advantage Ashvin sees in keeping model and product together.

8. Continual learning may be the next genuine paradigm shift

  • The host challenged naïve online learning: ingesting every user action could pull a model toward mediocre behavior. Ashvin’s hot-stove analogy reframed the problem. Humans do not merely filter out a bad example; they presumably have a value function that makes them avoid repeating it after one observation.

  • Models remain “a few orders of magnitude” behind that data efficiency. They may introduce the same code bug repeatedly—even within one context—whereas a person should make the mistake once and retain the lesson across contexts. Ashvin floated “in-context learning with infinite memory or something,” where an experience in context should become part of the weights so the model does not repeat it.

  • He sees little immediate capacity problem: deployment may add thousands or perhaps millions of tokens to a model originally trained on trillions, “a drop in the water bucket.” The deeper uncertainty is whether weights behave primarily like a hard drive storing facts or a CPU whose reusable circuits compute them.

  • The host suspects continual learning could be “paradigm-shifting in the next year or something”; Ashvin agreed there was something deeply interesting there but said he had no idea what the shift might be. Cursor is hiring especially for code data and rewards, and favors two-day work trials over trivia, though “why is off-policy RL unstable?” remains his revealing interview question.

Speaker 1

Okay, we're here at NeurIPS. We're recording a special Latent Space episode from NeurIPS, and we're here with Ashvin from Cursor. Welcome.

Ashvin Nair

Hi. Yeah, thanks for having me.

Speaker 1

So I guess Cursor is a new identity. I didn't even know if I should say that, because you only joined Cursor 3 months ago. Before that, you were at OpenAI, where you worked on o3; before that, you did a Berkeley PhD in RL, but focused on robotics.

Ashvin Nair

Robotics. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Is it weird switching from robotics to language models?

Ashvin Nair

Okay, this is kind of interesting because a lot of people have been doing this. I mean, OpenAI—yeah, robotics. I was actually at OpenAI in 2017, also working on robotics. I was interning right before my PhD, where I worked on robotics there.

Speaker 1

2017? He was famously OpenAI's first intern.

Ashvin Nair

Oh, really? Okay, then he might have been before me. But yeah, there were 15 interns. It was a very different company. It was just robotics, Dota, and 15 interns that summer, all having pretty exciting individual projects. That set of interns—if you look at where they are now, it's kind of cool.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Was there anyone from that class that you would shout out?

Ashvin Nair

There were just a lot of cool papers that came out. Lerrel Pinto is now at NYU.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

The person who leads reasoning at xAI—I forgot his name.

Speaker 1

Well, he left. Eric?

Ashvin Nair

But yeah, I forget his name. He worked on K-FAC and stuff, I think.

Speaker 1

The vision dude, Greg.

Ashvin Nair

Not Greg, but yeah. It was an exciting time to be there. I think robotics is a pretty good fit for LLMs because the switch ends up being pretty similar. You want to look at a lot of data, and it's hard to get stuff working in the robotics world. I think it builds very gritty people who look at data a lot, that kind of thing.

So, for whatever reason, I think that transfers. It's happening a lot, and I think it makes a lot of sense.

Speaker 1

One of my NeurIPS highlights so far was having dinner yesterday with Lex Fridman. It was a small group dinner, and Lex used to be in robotics. He gave his assessment of robotics people: robotics people are the best to talk to at NeurIPS because they're the most well-rounded.

Ashvin Nair

Because they don't have a choice. They work with the real world and real-world-looking data. The most unhinged, the most detached from reality, are the simulation people.

Speaker 1

I see. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Ashvin Nair

I think I agree. I actually did a little bit of both during my PhD. I worked on prototyping ideas in simulation and then getting them working on real-world robotics. Robotics is probably where you feel AGI the least, because it's just so far away from working.

Over the last year, there have been demos that have been super interesting from Physical Intelligence and Sunday and stuff. I'm starting to think, “Okay, this kind of stuff—”

Speaker 1

Have you seen the Sunday robots themselves?

Ashvin Nair

I haven't seen them. Apparently, they've been doing demos, and I'm pretty keen to see them.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I've seen the Physical Intelligence ones live, and it's pretty impressive. Just in someone's living room, folding laundry and stuff—you can just toss it in there. Everybody must be mesmerized.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Okay, one last thing on robotics, and then you can pivot to OpenAI. OpenAI is restarting a robotics team. Is that serious?

Ashvin Nair

I actually know very little about it, because I was in a pretty different part of the org.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, I think it's serious. I think there's a ton of excitement around robotics right now. I'm actually curious what drives it, because I don't think I fully understand. There have been crazy raises recently for robotics companies, right?

Ashvin Nair

I guess my own view on it is that when I left robotics in 2022, I thought I would actually come back to robotics. But my view on it now is that LLM agents are going to be a trillion-dollar market before robotics is maybe even a $10 billion market.

This is because LLM agents already create value out in the world. With robotics, it's hard to make the case that AI robotics does anything that useful yet. Once it does something useful, you have to make the unit economics work out, and I think that's also quite hard. Reliability, fixing these robots, and those kinds of things—it all makes it difficult.

Speaker 1

I would say the market is kind of efficient in that software LLM companies are raising tens of billions, and robotics companies are raising hundreds of millions.

Ashvin Nair

I think very recently it's been single-digit billions.

Speaker 1

Oh, really?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. I think that's the surprising thing to me: it feels ahead of where it's actually at.

Speaker 1

I would say robotics is in kind of the GPT-1 to GPT-2 era right now. I haven't worked on robotics. What task would qualify as, “Oh, that's the inflection point”?

Ashvin Nair

It's a little bit like—you know it when you see it. I thought the Sunday demos were kind of cool. Maybe it's starting to get there, where the details matter a lot. It can't just be in a new scenario, one that you haven't seen before, and maybe on—

Speaker 1

Generalization?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. I think that was kind of what GPT-2 was too, right? You start to see hints of cool generalization. It doesn't have to work out of the box, but at this point, especially, it still feels like in robotics you're not exactly investing in a technology; probably you're just investing in a team.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah. I'm not in the space whatsoever, but that's kind of my impression.

Ashvin Nair

It's actually nice when you're not in there, because you're as informed as basically everyone else. So we just kind of speculate.

Speaker 1

Exactly. There's a robotics team at OpenAI.

So, coming back to language models, did you join OpenAI, or were you—

Ashvin Nair

I joined right before ChatGPT, in September 2022.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

I was pretty burnt out from my PhD, and I thought, “Okay, I'm going to go to this chill research lab.” Then ChatGPT happened, everything blew up, and a lot of stuff got refocused.

Speaker 1

What did they tell you they were looking for you to do? Obviously, ChatGPT surprised OpenAI, but—

Ashvin Nair

I joined on the CodeGen team.

Speaker 1

The Codex team?

Ashvin Nair

Exactly. It was the team that shipped Codex, but by the time I joined, we were more so working on the model, doing tool use and those kinds of things. It was very related to ChatGPT; we were kind of a sister team to the team that made ChatGPT.

We were working on making the models smarter through programming competitions, how to do SFT for that, and that kind of stuff.

Speaker 1

And IMO gold has felt reachable in that time?

Ashvin Nair

Oh yeah, crazy. If you told me that we could have gotten IMO gold, I would have assumed that we could all just go on vacation. It's all over—AI is solved. There's no point in working anymore.

Speaker 1

We got it.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah.

Speaker 1

It feels like nothing's changed that much. Life is still the same.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. I think that's super interesting. I don't have a great way to explain it, but that's actually what I spend a lot of time thinking about: why is that the case? You see this again and again in AI, with solving chess, and then it doesn't really matter, solving Go, and—

Speaker 1

Yeah, so you keep seeing it, but it surprises you every single time. I think, first, we keep moving the goalpost.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, we're very good at that.

Speaker 1

And second, I think our definitions of what constitutes AGI are bad. We don't actually mean what we say when we say, “When we have achieved this, then we have AGI.” Clearly, when we've achieved IMO gold with a language model, we have AGI. That's wrong.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, and I think shifting the goalpost to some extent is correct. We keep Goodharting whatever goalpost we have—

Speaker 1

And I think it's kind of hard to—

Ashvin Nair

To say “Goodharting” is too negative. It's like, “I will cheat to do what you asked me to.”

Speaker 1

Mhm.

Ashvin Nair

But I don't think it was cheating.

It was just scaling test-time compute at a meta level. I think the community is not cheating, but it makes a lot of implicit decisions to go after the eval benchmarks that matter the most. And so, yeah, for sure.

Speaker 1

Yeah, exactly.

Ashvin Nair

But yeah, hopefully I’m not that Goodharted.

Speaker 1

Well, it kind of clearly is to some extent, right? Most programmers in the world cannot do AI at any decent level, but we’re still struggling to automate most programming jobs. There’s a lot of stuff left to do, so language models are here at the junior-to-senior developer level, and then suddenly for AI, you’re like—

Ashvin Nair

Exactly, and there’s something suspicious about that.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Okay.

Ashvin Nair

I kind of saw this at a meta level with RL research also. I did my PhD with Sergey Levine at Berkeley from 2017 to 2022, and that era of RL research was super interesting because it was super hyped, starting from DQN in 2015. A lot of the methods that people were really excited about were off-policy learning, value functions, and these kinds of things.

Somehow, that stuff hasn’t really panned out, I would say. It’s not exactly clear why, but in the academic literature, we thought we were making a ton of progress. In retrospect, I have to say that we probably overfit to the benchmarks pretty heavily.

The way I see this in retrospect is that we gave ourselves a lot of new knobs to tune and then implicitly tuned those to fit the benchmarks. Everyone knew at some level that we were doing that, but I think it’s hard to appreciate that it’s not just happening for a single paper at a meta level—it’s happening for the whole community, too.

Speaker 1

Yeah. And I think the result is that a lot of the RL research that came out of that era isn’t used that much. I think it’s for a similar reason: basically, we were doing benchmark maximization.

Ashvin Nair

I will flat-out say there was an RL winter. Entire startups were founded based on the premise at the time and basically gave up.

Speaker 1

Mhm. Some of them died, some of them pivoted, whatever.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think because I was in academia, there was still quite a lot of excitement over it. But it still felt quite academic, and I was a little bit frustrated in that era because I felt like one of the pitfalls of academia is that it doesn’t really reward simple ideas that work. Instead, it tends to reward math-y ideas.

Those math-y ideas also give you implicit knobs to tune that allow you to overfit, while the things that actually work tend to be simple ones that have fewer knobs and just generalize to many things.

Speaker 1

There’s just less secret sauce to it apart from throwing a lot of compute.

Ashvin Nair

Exactly. Exactly. But those are things that tend to—

Speaker 1

It’s not intellectually interesting.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. From an academic point of view, it’s like, “Why am I sitting in school?”

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah. I think for a lot of people who do PhDs, they’re wired in a way where they want to think about interesting new stuff.

Ashvin Nair

And yeah, the scaling era kind of speaks to that.

Speaker 1

Scaling era. Is the scaling era over since we’re up?

Ashvin Nair

Well, I think I’ve just been pulled into that from an interview. I don’t think it’s over, but there’s definitely something interesting happening, right? The thing I was saying about AIME and IMO—I think we’ll still continue more or less on the same track.

Clearly, these labs are releasing their new pretrained models, and they’re still doing much better than before. So I think scaling is still happening, but I think it’s happening in a different way.

Speaker 1

It’s worth seriously interrogating why we’re not just automating all jobs right now.

Ashvin Nair

I think my view is that RL, the way it’s applied to LLMs right now, is kind of a weird, funny tool where it doesn’t really generalize beyond the training distribution that much. It generalizes to some extent, and it generalizes in interesting ways, but it’s very peaky, right?

It can kind of kill the training distribution completely. It can be the best in the world at it with not that much effort, really, but it doesn’t really generalize. So I think what we have to do is bring the world of economically useful tasks into the distribution for RL.

Speaker 1

If we commit to using RL as a tool—and it might be the case that maybe there’s some cool continual-learning thing or something that shifts the paradigm next year—

Ashvin Nair

But—

Speaker 1

It really feels like if RL is a tool, then a big thing that needs to happen is that the intelligence of the models isn’t the bottleneck. It’s more that you need to have products that bring the entire context of what someone wants to do into the product so that the LLM can see it, and then you need to do RL on top of that.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Have you seen GDPval?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, I’ve seen it. Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1

Is that basically what you’re envisioning?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, I haven’t looked at GDPval closely. Actually, I haven’t seen exactly—roughly, to recap, it’s 128 tasks across white-collar jobs that account for more than 5% of GDP, right? They basically created all the context for the eval and evaluated every model.

Famously, OpenAI’s evals—whoever runs that one—always finds that Anthropic’s are the best for—

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah. It’s, uh—yeah, props to them for publishing it.

Ashvin Nair

Doing that. It’s actual science.

Speaker 1

I think it’s good.

Ashvin Nair

But in a sense, generalizing beyond coding competitions to economically useful tasks—

Speaker 1

That is it. I think that is what’s more important for GPT-6.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. What I’d like to do is—I just haven’t read the GDPval traces closely. It’s not clear to me what the job of an accountant entails and what kind of context needs to be in the product so that you can do it.

Speaker 1

PDFs. I see. I see.

Ashvin Nair

They try to go as close to source documents as possible.

Speaker 1

I see. I see. Yeah, yeah.

Ashvin Nair

So yeah, I think roughly operating in this kind of thing is what I envision, because it can’t be an artificial thing like, “Oh, let me clean up this data for you to make it easy for the LLM to process.” No.

Speaker 1

PDFs in an agent loop. Yeah, I think that’s roughly the right shape of the thing.

Ashvin Nair

I guess how I imagine this being operationalized is that you’d want to co-design the product and the model, so that the product—whatever it is—can provide the right context.

Coding is maybe the easiest first step, because most of the context that you care about is just your codebase, being able to run stuff in the terminal, and that kind of thing. And still, we’re not that close to automating it necessarily.

But for all the other jobs, the context is insane, right? It’s all the conversations you’ve had with your coworkers, your Slack messages. For my work at OpenAI, I was working on hyperparameter-scaling research, and I actually wrote not that much code.

Speaker 1

Grid search or neural architecture search?

Ashvin Nair

No, more like understanding the scaling laws of deep learning in 2020, where it was, “Oh, you have to initialize the layers in a particular way to get good scaling”—kind of the analog for that for RL.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Ashvin Nair

The thing is, I didn’t write a ton of code. Writing code wasn’t the bottleneck. It was more that, over the course of a year, I would run sweeps, look at the interactions between different hyperparameters, and build up that knowledge through a year of looking at different graphs.

To do my job, the model would also need all those things in context to successfully automate my job. You would want a product that allows you to bring all that context in.

Speaker 1

Did you have to build it for yourself, or is there an existing one?

Ashvin Nair

No. Those graphs were just sitting in my head.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

Right. So I think it would be pretty hard to automate that job. What you need to do is build a product that brings that context in, and then you want to do RL on top of that to teach the models to use that context.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Another conversation that has really come to a head this year is the death of “one model fits all.”

Ashvin Nair

I feel like the point of the G in AGI is one model fits all.

Speaker 1

Mhm.

Ashvin Nair

I think OpenAI has clearly abandoned that this year.

Speaker 1

Oh, what do you mean?

Ashvin Nair

Fidji wrote a blog post titled “We Are No Longer Doing One Model Fits All.”

Speaker 1

Okay, interesting. Okay.

Ashvin Nair

And I think Mark Chen, or one of the other senior people who aren’t Sam, also said this in a podcast. Basically, the idea was that you started with Codex, someone else was doing InstructGPT, and then we launched GPT-4—

Speaker 1

I guess o1.

Ashvin Nair

And o1 was kind of supposed to be a reasoning, one-model-fits-all system—

Speaker 1

And we merged the GPT-4o and o1/o3 lines into GPT-5—

Ashvin Nair

And now we’re splitting it out into GPT-5 and GPT-5-Codex again. It’s just a weird—

Speaker 1

Well, OpenAI is very guilty of that. I don’t think you should interpret those as scientific facts about the universe.

Ashvin Nair

It’s just more like OpenAI has a tendency to shift the org chart, basically.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Right. The world has a tendency.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. So I think a lot of it is related to that. But yeah, I see what you mean by the current reasoning paradigm fitting itself to this kind of peaky-in-certain-areas thing, right? I don’t think it’s so much a matter of model capacity, though.

It’s just more of an organizational thing: if you care a lot about coding, you probably don’t have the data to do all the other stuff. I don’t think it’s so much a matter of—if you had all the data, you would probably benefit from just training on all of it, and you’d get some generalization between these—

But it’s hard to find one organization that cares about all of these at once.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. So before I double-click on the o-series in OpenAI, I do like to ask OpenAI people who were there: do you have a favorite blip story?

Yeah, the blip was crazy for me. I was at Thanksgiving—

Speaker 1

Everyone remembers where they were and what they were working on.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. I was at Thanksgiving with 2 OpenAI friends, actually, and one of them, on Friday afternoon, was like, “Oh, Sam Altman just got fired.”

We were just working together, so I was like, “What? Oh, haha, good joke.” And then, yeah, it was crazy. It was just a crazy weekend of ups and downs. We thought—

Speaker 1

You signed a letter?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, I did. About 95% of people signed it.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I thought you would move on to Microsoft, or—

Ashvin Nair

Well, I think maybe I had a slightly more complicated reaction. I actually do think that governance feels really important to me, because it does feel like, no matter if we hit AGI in 2 years or 10 or whatever, it’s not clear that we have a good structure for the governance of it.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Ashvin Nair

And so it is a question that we probably should spend more time on. During that period, I was pretty willing to be like, “You know what? Let’s forget about the equity and stuff. I think it’s good and healthy to have a conversation about how exactly the governance should work.”

Speaker 1

Okay. You care about this.

Ashvin Nair

Uh-huh.

Speaker 1

Right. So now the OpenAI nonprofit has this secret shadow board of members that determines when we’ve reached AGI.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 1

Is that better?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, I don’t have an answer. It’s just—it’s not fair—

Speaker 1

Above my pay grade, but—

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, and even back then I was kind of like, well, I don’t care. I—

Ashvin Nair

I do care quite a lot. When the blip happened, one of my reactions was, well, you know, this nonprofit board stuff—if it takes somewhat surprising, maybe erratic actions, maybe you’d rather just have a thing like the Microsoft board, which is probably all the pensions of the world. Why? Serious people, but also the stakeholders are kind of the whole world, because everyone is, through their pensions or something, invested in it.

Maybe that is a bit more of a democratic way to run things than having 7 people run it. But yeah, I don’t really know. It feels like we haven’t solved governance at all, though, right? Forget AI—even stuff like unhealthy food or social media. It kind of feels like whatever the capitalistic incentive is doesn’t actually capture good outcomes for society, maybe.

Speaker 1

So about the transition into reasoning: you shocked me by mentioning that the reasoning team is 300 people.

Ashvin Nair

It’s kind of like, now that o3 was shipped as a product, I think it just gets larger and larger, how many people work on it. I’ve lost track of the numbers, but a lot of people contribute to the different aspects of safety and evals.

Speaker 1

Yeah. The original o1—I saw the video, and it was like a dozen people.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, well, even then, if you look at all the contributors, it was probably more like 50 to 200 people.

Speaker 1

Okay. So let’s tell that story from your point of view: figuring out what RL means there. And I guess, was this a branch of any prior work that you want to credit?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. Setting the scene, I guess, in 2023 people were talking about whether scaling laws were dead, that kind of stuff.

Speaker 1

Every year, every year.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, yeah. But especially that year, it felt pretty serious.

In general, OpenAI is really good about having conviction in something and just, from first principles, going after it. I think the people who are probably most responsible for that are Ilya Sutskever and Jakub Pachocki. I think Dota 2 was more or less the same template in some ways, right? That was in 2017, and a lot of the people there have this AGI-in-their-bones kind of point of view.

They were basically convinced that RL would be the way to get there. For a long time, people had been convinced that something like that should work, and it’s just that it started to work once the pretraining got good enough.

Speaker 1

Okay.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. I think human feedback is a bit of a side branch, because you can’t really pour that much compute into it, right? You take the model and elicit it to be a little bit better in terms of personality.

But the people there were really convinced that, at some point, it’s not about copying the internet. You can do RL, and that’s the path to getting much better intelligence. So there’s kind of a long line of returning to RL in different ways, and then around 2023 is when it started really clicking.

It was interesting because the initial models didn’t perform way better than the existing models, because they were smaller scale. But people were very good at saying, “This is kind of interesting. The reasoning trace that you see here is not something that you’ve really seen be so accurate in other models.”

It’s similar to how a lot of people didn’t really think of GPT or GPT-2 as something that was super compelling. I personally didn’t like GPT-2 that much. I was like, “Okay, whatever,” and then GPT-3 happened, and I was like, “Oh, wow. I feel a lot of FOMO sitting in my PhD.”

It’s kind of that. I think it takes a bit of first-principles conviction to decide that there’s something here and that we should really scale it up. OpenAI is really good about, once you decide that something is good, scaling it up all the way.

Speaker 1

Was there an internal prototype before o1 that was like, “Okay, this is the thing. We’ll fund it to scale it up”? There usually is.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. It was running RL on even a pretty small model, producing very interesting reasoning traces and getting surprisingly good scores on math in a way that we couldn’t have done without a bunch more pretraining.

Once that looked good, more and more resources went to scaling up that new line, as well as adding things like tool use.

Speaker 1

I think a lot of people make a lot of headlines about the large models, but I think the minis are very underappreciated—how well this solution works. Any comments or discoveries there?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, nothing much to say there. I was also not super involved in the mini stuff. Maybe one thing, not exactly related to that, is that externally people are like, “Research seems to come in these big leaps.”

Speaker 1

Okay.

Ashvin Nair

But internally at OpenAI, it feels very smooth. You have a bunch of experiments. Some of them have inconclusive results, but maybe you stack them.

Speaker 1

Yeah, exactly. You stack them and just keep scaling. You keep having different runs that get a little better each time.

Okay.

Ashvin Nair

So I think that’s maybe one other aspect that’s a little underappreciated.

Speaker 1

I don’t know. In the media, there are just these wild swings between, “Oh, we’re—”

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. Internally at the big labs, it’s just kind of like, “We’re chugging along.” Maybe this month is a little better than last month or something, but it’s not as crazy up and down.

Speaker 1

I think the question is that there used to be more of this, and now I know there’s less. The stuff we’ve released—we’re internally about 6 months ahead. Part of the reason why people at OpenAI weren’t that excited about ChatGPT’s launch was because they already had GPT-4. They were like, “Oh, we just put this out. We’re already way ahead.”

I think now people are just releasing things as they have them, like—

Ashvin Nair

I think, yeah, especially because there’s some competitive pressure, right?

Speaker 1

I think people are probably pretty worried that if you let a lead linger for too long, that’ll grab a lot of market share. I don’t know—Nano Banana Pro right now is probably—it’s like a month…

Ashvin Nair

So I would say the lead time from internal to external is about 1–2 months.

Speaker 1

Yeah, which is exactly—

Ashvin Nair

Tiny. Pretty short.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Tiny. Anything else on the reasoning side? I guess you can talk about the work on coding. Was there anything that surprised you, or is there an external misconception about the o1/o3 side before we go to Cursor?

Ashvin Nair

Not really. I think it felt by early 2024 like, “Oh, wow, this recipe really works, and we can see how far we can take it.” It was very steady progress, and by that point it was probably pretty predictable that we could really smash things like the IMO or IOI.

One funny thing that happened while this was going on is that I went to a conference called The Curve.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

It was about AI progress—

Speaker 1

And Joseph Gordon-Levitt—

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. I went last year. This was before the o1 stuff was released.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

I went to this thing where people were making bets on where we would be on Epoch AI’s FrontierMath exam and Humanity’s Last Exam and things like that. Their estimates were, “Oh, we’ll be at 10–20% in 2027.” At the time, there were already models internally that were better than their estimates, so they were off by about 2 years or something.

The interesting thing is that these are also people who were predicting that there would be Dyson spheres by 2035 or something.

Speaker 1

Okay, so you see what I’m saying? Their current estimate is way under. Are you too pessimistic in the short term and too optimistic in the long term?

Ashvin Nair

I don’t know. There might be Dyson spheres by 2035. I don’t regard it as impossible. But I think that is one interesting aspect: people still seem pretty miscalibrated in different ways. I do really appreciate how that community makes predictions, because most of the rest of the world just cynically says, “I saw this the whole time.” I appreciate that they actually make predictions.

Speaker 1

Is this EA-adjacent?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. It’s that group.

Speaker 1

Yeah. I like that they register their opinions ahead of time.

Ashvin Nair

I think broadly, the people who’ve made capabilities predictions in that group have been broadly correct if you look from 2015 to 2020 or something. A lot of people thought AI was a sham, or that it wasn’t really going to be useful for a long time, and actually it is. It’s somewhere in the 2030-ish range that it will probably reach human-level intelligence.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it’s weird. I feel like a skeptic when I keep saying that everyone always predicts AGI happens in their lifetime. That’s very convenient for whoever is making the prediction, and we have a consistent view of history where you can see people in the 1800s and 1900s making predictions. It somehow always lands in their lifetime, whatever the thing is.

But this time it might happen—almost surely, right? I don’t know.

Ashvin Nair

I’m pretty sure here.

Speaker 1

Yeah. It’s an interesting observation: how different are we from our predecessors in terms of developing a technology? Did the DeepSeek moment earlier this year—which was also crazy—change anything internally?

Ashvin Nair

Not really. I think what surprised me more was that it created such a moment. It was kind of confusing, right? DeepSeek shows that NVIDIA chips are actually more useful than previously thought, and NVIDIA’s stock goes down a bunch. It was kind of—

Speaker 1

I think the steelman of that side is that you don’t need the top-of-the-line NVIDIA chips. You can use the previous generation, or the restricted ones they sell to China, to do an equivalent amount of work for a reasoning model.

Ashvin Nair

I see. Yeah. But I think the feeling at OpenAI was that we had a better model already at the time, right? Smarter models were clearly quite valuable, so you wanted to be at the frontier.

Speaker 1

Okay. I wasn’t quite framing this as a race-dynamics thing between labs. It was more, “Were they right? Were their approaches right?”

Ashvin Nair

They had R1, which was a really cool branch. So it’s more commentary on what we learned about RL this year.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

It does seem like a lot of the labs have converged on some similar way of doing RL, and they’re all kind of back at the same level of being at the frontier again. Even the Anthropic models, like Opus 4.5, have this kind of ARC-AGI-2 plot that looks exactly like the OpenAI ones, right?

I think everyone seems to be converging on a pretty similar form of RL. It’s interesting. People basically figured out, in one way or another, how to achieve more or less the same thing.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Let’s talk about the move to Cursor.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Why is Cursor accumulating and drawing in so many cool RL people?

Ashvin Nair

From Cursor’s perspective, it’s nice not to be so dependent on external labs for everything. I think there are also unique opportunities to co-design the product with the model in ways that we couldn’t unless we actually built the model ourselves and had access to making it good.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

That’s broadly why Cursor is so excited.

Speaker 1

Okay, I’ll push back a little bit. OpenAI has infinite resources.

Speaker 1

Infinite data, and it has Codex. You could have just stayed.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. Yeah. Well, actually, right around when I was leaving is when people started really using Codex a lot. That happened right after I left, so that was kind of funny. Mostly, people were using Cursor internally—

Speaker 1

Maybe a bit of Windsurf because it was left over from the previous thing.

Ashvin Nair

Sure. Yeah, exactly. So it wasn’t that obvious. But more to the point, RL is kind of a tool that doesn’t generalize that well. What you want to do is bring the entire test distribution inside your training distribution. I saw the opportunity to do that directly at Cursor.

I think the Cursor folks are also really excited about that vision. It’s a small place where the product people sit right next to the ML people, and I think there’s a lot of potential there.

You can see that recently Jacob Jackson had a blog post about online Tab, where we’re doing policy updates—

Speaker 1

Which is every 2 hours.

Ashvin Nair

Exactly. A policy update every 2 hours or something. That’s the type of thing that’s a little hard to do. It’s very hard to imagine that at OpenAI, for example, because the product is this complicated thing, and the product people and RL people are on different sides of the organization.

Speaker 1

I think if you put your mind to it, you would. Tab is an autocomplete. It’s a smaller model, and it’s not as complex, I guess, as—

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, but I don’t think that’s really why Cursor was able to do it. It’s more about the organization itself being smaller and a bit more focused.

Speaker 1

Yeah. Since you’re indulging this, I think the question about continual learning—which has always been a big theme and is an even bigger theme this year—is: don’t you need to curate your data? You can’t just chuck whatever your users are doing straight in, because that tends to get you toward the middle of the distribution. You actually want to spike it.

Ashvin Nair

I guess it depends how you’re thinking about continual learning. Humans are quite good at dealing with bad data too, right? You can see someone doing something dumb and decide that you’re not going to do it.

Speaker 1

Filter it out.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, but it’s not even actually filtered out. You presumably have some kind of value function that says, if you see someone touch a hot stove, you’re not going to do it. It’s not just filtering it out; you’re actually not going to do it.

Speaker 1

You could rediscover hot stoves from first principles.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, but you don’t need to. I think there’s something pretty deep there. It seems like we’re a few orders of magnitude of data efficiency away from that kind of thing. You do something once, or you make a mistake—if you introduce a bug in your code, you’re not going to do it again. But the models will happily keep doing it, even within the same context, and definitely across contexts.

Speaker 1

Yeah. I think there’s something interesting and deep there. I suspect that it’ll be paradigm-shifting in the next year or something, but I have no idea what it might be.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah.

Speaker 1

So primarily, you’ve worked on Composer, Tab, and maybe Search?

Ashvin Nair

So I’ve actually just worked on Composer, and that’s kind of the main focus of the company, basically—or at least the ML group—is shipping a better Composer.

Speaker 1

Can you describe, I guess, the impressive brag a bit about the ML group?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. I think the ML group is great. It’s just 20 or 25 people, and I was honestly very pleasantly surprised at how good Composer is, given the size of the group. It’s not like a big research lab yet, and I think it’s a really good model.

You can see that in the reception, and I think it’s the start of hints of co-design with the product in some ways. One of the reasons people really like it is that it’s smart enough that you actually want to use it. It’s also fast, so you stay in the loop with the model while you use it, because all the other smart models are slow enough that you want to context-switch away and come back. That sucks. As a programmer, it just sucks to context-switch; it kind of gives you ADHD. It’s really terrible.

Speaker 1

I agree. It’s one step in the direction of being able to be more in sync. I think the whole company is full of people who want to code. Even the co-founders actually code, and the co-founders are often some of the best high-taste testers, which also gives you a lot of reassurance that you’re going to ship good stuff.

Is there any example of a task that Composer doesn’t solve yet but that you’re really motivated to solve?

Ashvin Nair

Ironically, I feel like I’m actually a low-taste tester in some ways, because I just write slow machine-learning code and think about algorithms all day.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Ashvin Nair

I think more broadly, I’m super excited about co-designing the product so that you can actually—not just right now, where we’re getting better and better at answering user prompts. I think that’s why Composer 1 is quite good.

What we’re really aiming for is to automate software engineering as a process, where you write code, go look at Datadog, look at what’s happening, then come back and maybe have some hypothesis about what’s better and rerun things. That’s the type of thing that we actually want to make the model do.

I do think that Cursor is uniquely positioned to do that. If a lot of what a software engineer does ends up in the product, I think we can use that to get better and better at not just writing code, but the whole job.

Speaker 1

I think that’s very inspiring. Just to double-click on any sort of RL insights: Sasha and Lee have talked a lot about the internal tooling that you’ve had for all the cluster visualizations. Is that helpful? Is that what every lab has?

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, I think the tooling at Cursor is actually really good. People are just down to vibe-code stuff and test their own stuff, so we have a lot of good tooling where you can have an SSH session into our own user environment or something and see whether code runs the way that users got it to run. I think that’s quite nice.

One of the big lessons in ML in general is that you want to be really close to your data and understand your data well. I think we’re again uniquely positioned to do that well, especially because all the internal tooling is just internal—you’re not buying anything.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it’s just internal. Part of it is that we’re also working on a product where you can understand it really well because it’s a code product. If I were to look at a biology question at OpenAI, I’d have no idea what it was about.

Yeah. Interesting. I think that’s a good overview of everything. Other than OpenAI and Cursor, is there interesting RL work that other people are doing that you’re still mulling over, that’s influential to your thinking? Good papers, anything like that?

Ashvin Nair

Unfortunately, I’ve gotten in the habit, especially at OpenAI, of not reading that much external work and just reading people’s internal Slack posts as the main way to learn new stuff. No super-inspiring recent things have popped out to me.

I do think that this vibe of continual learning feels like there’s something super interesting there. It feels like maybe even people in academia could make a big crack at it.

Speaker 1

And continual learning specifically means kind of what Tab is doing?

Ashvin Nair

Maybe what Tab is doing, but also just in-context learning with infinite memory or something. Once you experience something in context, it should just be in your weights, and you shouldn’t have to make that same mistake again. That kind of thing.

Speaker 1

Why do you think there’s—okay, but it should be in your weights, and there’s a finite capacity for the weights to remember things. You will forget things if you do that too much, right?

Ashvin Nair

Not necessarily. You start out by memorizing or learning from trillions of tokens. Now you’re going to experience thousands or maybe millions of tokens.

Speaker 1

You only need one epoch.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, exactly. So crazy. It feels like if you could learn enough about those million tokens that you’re actually deploying on, I don’t think you should need to worry about overloading the capacity of your model. I don’t think there’s a risk of that, right?

Speaker 1

Because you can train on a trillion tokens and it’s fine, right?

Ashvin Nair

Right. So proportionately, it’s a drop in the water bucket unless you run it for years and, at some point, it starts—

Speaker 1

Maybe.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. So basically, I find it very curious.

Speaker 1

I’ve only had one podcast on the information theory of language models. What is the theoretical capacity? How much are we using? You should probably track that.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah, that’s a good idea. Treat the weights as a hard drive. If you want to store things in the weights, treat them as a hard drive. What’s the capacity of the hard drive? How much can be stored in there? We know the capacity—it’s the number of bits represented by the parameters.

Speaker 1

Yeah. You physically cannot store more than that.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. I’ve heard that someone recently at Cursor, Jacob, brought up this view. I don’t know if it’s a more public view, but there’s kind of a hard-drive view of neural networks and a CPU view of neural networks. Is what’s happening in the weights just memorizing stuff, or are you having a few circuits that do a lot of work? This kind of thing.

I would love to explore it. There are so many of these more science-y questions that I’d love to explore sometime, but they conflict with empirical work. Unfortunately, at any given moment, it doesn’t seem like the most fruitful thing for improving something, especially in the short run or even in the next couple of years, is understanding some of these questions.

I guess this is technically supposed to be the world of academia, but it’s also hard to explore those ideas there without enough compute. I would love to return at some point to exploring these fundamental science ideas.

Speaker 1

Okay, this is something I was kind of springing on you, so you can take some time. What’s a good RL interview question that, if somebody can answer it, means they should join Cursor immediately?

Ashvin Nair

Ooh, it’s a hard question.

Speaker 1

I assume you do interviews.

Ashvin Nair

Yeah. At Cursor, we do work trials. They’re 2-day work trials, and I actually think that’s more representative, because you plug in and see how they behave.

I think that’s more valuable. This is honestly less about how well you understand RL and a bit more about whether you were around in the 2017-to-2022 era, but why is off-policy RL unstable? That’s a good question to dive into.

Speaker 1

I don’t actually know, so I’ll have to dig into it.

Cool. Thank you. That was a great conversation.

Ashvin Nair

We are definitely hiring at Cursor. If you're interested in working especially on data and rewards for code, I think that's a huge need. Please get in touch. That's it.

Speaker 1

Yeah, thank you. Sweet.

[State of RL/Reasoning] IMO/IOI Gold, OpenAI o3/GPT-5, and Cursor Composer — Ashvin Nair, Cursor | BidClub