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Sharp Tech · · 35 min

(Preview) Sora 2 and an AI Video Boom, Meta’s Vibes One Week Later, Questions on TikTok, Solar Power, and the iPhone Air

Andrew SharpBen Thompson

Podcast
TL;DR
  • Sora 2 plausibly clears the more defensible “GPT-3.5 moment” bar: not a new ChatGPT-scale event, but the point when generated video becomes a coherent, consumable finished thought. Ben Thompson initially “poo-pooed” OpenAI’s comparison, then distinguished GPT-3.5 from ChatGPT itself: short clips now hold together well enough to astonish mainstream users, even if experts have already seen related capabilities from Google’s Veo models. “It’s sufficiently finished to be something meaningful like GPT-3.5 was.”

  • Andrew Sharp sees ChatGPT-like virality but not ChatGPT-like utility. Sora 2’s photorealistic output, intuitive interface, and unsolicited excitement from people outside the early-adopter tech crowd feel unusually consequential, yet Sharp wants to leave after roughly 90 seconds and cannot identify a daily-use case beyond entertainment. His pushback: ChatGPT was immediately useful, while Sora currently looks “useless”—a condition he explicitly says might change.

  • OpenAI’s repeatable advantage may be productization, not merely model quality. ChatGPT, the Studio Ghibli image-generation moment, and now Sora represent three viral launches; Thompson’s investor-relevant conclusion is that “three times is worth keeping track of.” Sora reached No. 3 in the App Store while Meta AI was roughly No. 125; Gemini was No. 1, albeit invite-gated.

  • AI video could expand the creator class enough to produce an order-of-magnitude content shock. Thompson’s 1%-create, 9%-distribute, 90%-consume model may break when generating video stops being a “big pain in the ass”: moving creators from 1% to 2% already doubles supply, while a tripling or even 10× increase could surface ideas previously blocked by production constraints. The structural change is “the breaking apart of the idea and the substantiation of the idea.”

  • Meta’s attention franchise faces a potentially disruptive format it cannot simply clone inside Instagram. Thompson says Meta’s power and advertising business are predicated on attention. TikTok took attention, but Meta could answer with Reels; Sora presents two harder problems if momentum persists—Meta’s AI may not be good enough, and users may not want AI video shoved into Instagram. His call is conditional but blunt: “Meta might be in big trouble here.”

  • The hostile reaction to Meta Vibes exposed narrative—not visual novelty—as the missing ingredient for most users. Listeners criticized Vibes as neither funny nor sexy and as lacking narrative; Sharp added that it also offered no apparent information or instruction. Thompson’s own screensaver comparison reflects his atypical taste, and he conceded that treating ambient, narrative-free imagery as broadly compelling was “a massive blind spot.”

  • Sharp treats today’s AI-video apps as half-baked prototypes whose destination is still unclear. He compares them with computers in 1993 or 1994: an interesting glimpse of where things might be in four or five years, even though he largely agrees with the Vibes backlash. Thompson revisits his optimism about AI-generated worlds, acknowledging that fantastical environments may attract a committed niche without becoming broadly compelling.

  • A recurring outside critique is that frontier resources are being directed toward attention decay. Andrew read Ashkay Kothari’s question about why people keep dedicating “our brightest minds, billions of dollars, and the most powerful GPUs on Earth” to another app optimized for attention decay, noting that versions of this criticism had recurred about both Vibes and Sora.

Digest · the substance, structured for research

1. Sora 2 and the finished-thought threshold

  • Thompson initially “poo-pooed” OpenAI’s GPT-3.5 comparison as an audacious attempt to invoke a seminal technological moment, then corrected himself: OpenAI claimed a GPT-3.5 moment, not a ChatGPT moment. That distinction changed his judgment from skepticism to qualified agreement.

  • His historical framing: GPT-1 and GPT-2 showed emergent capability, while GPT-3 could make sense before trailing into “nothingness.” GPT-3.5 remained flawed and hallucination-prone, but it could return a cogent response with a beginning, middle, and end—something ordinary people could consume.

  • Sora 2 now does the analogous job for video. Its short clips form “a finished thought,” unlike the original Sora, which Thompson placed nearer GPT-1 or GPT-2 despite its striking demonstrations and the attention attached to ChatGPT’s maker.

  • Sharp’s representative feed captured the leap through absurd narrative: Ronald McDonald in a hamburger car during a high-speed chase on Los Angeles’s 110. The content was silly, but its visual coherence and accessibility made the technical advance immediately legible.

2. Mainstream surprise matters more than expert surprise

  • Thompson’s self-diagnosed blind spot is prolonged exposure to the frontier. Because Veo, Veo 2, and Veo 3 had already shown him high-quality generated video, Sora 2 did not feel shocking; people downloading an easy consumer app instead reacted with “Holy cow.”

  • DeepSeek supplied his analogy. Paying OpenAI users had already experienced thinking models, but many free users first encountered visible reasoning through DeepSeek’s “cutesy” presentation and saw a remarkably better product—not merely a novel Chinese app.

  • Sharp, the podcast’s “resident normie,” found Sora unusually significant: the interface was intuitive, the output largely photorealistic, and several people outside the early-adopter tech crowd independently texted him about it. Nothing else in AI over the prior two years had felt as close to ChatGPT-style consumer momentum.

3. OpenAI’s repeated product launches could expand content supply

  • Sharp’s strongest positive read was product execution: Veo and Meta Vibes existed, but Sora made creation feel obvious. Thompson agreed and counted three viral OpenAI moments—ChatGPT, the Studio Ghibli image-generation moment, and Sora—arguing, “This isn’t a thing that happened once.”

  • Their disagreement centered on utility. Sharp uses ChatGPT daily for household projects and toddler questions but bails out of Sora after about 90 seconds; a friend stayed until 2:00 or 3:00 AM, yet Sharp still saw no clear path from entertainment novelty to everyday tool.

  • Thompson’s pushback is worth keeping: entertainment-only products are routinely dismissed as toys, even though “the most valuable companies” capture value by entertaining people. Sora’s lack of productivity might therefore strengthen, rather than weaken, its commercial relevance.

  • More consequentially, AI could alter the 1%-create, 9%-distribute, 90%-consume ratio. If easier production moves creators from 1% to 2%, supply doubles; a tripling or possible 10× expansion would separate ideas from the difficult work of substantiating them and unlock creators previously constrained by video production.

4. Sora creates an awkward attention problem for Meta

  • Thompson still defended one part of his Vibes thesis: an all-AI feed lets viewers relax because every clip is knowingly fake, avoiding the cognitive tax of deciding whether each photorealistic video is authentic. He thinks a distinct AI feed may therefore be easier to consume than synthetic media mixed into an existing feed.

  • Sharp prefers Sora’s photorealistic, real-world output; Thompson finds that less interesting and prefers Vibes’ futuristic environments. That disagreement reinforces Thompson’s uncertainty about whether AI-generated worlds will appeal broadly or mainly to a niche.

  • OpenAI also avoided disrupting ChatGPT’s low-friction conversational interface by launching Sora separately. Meta’s opposite choice made strategic sense as an attempt to drive Meta AI installation, but Sora nevertheless reached No. 3 in the App Store while Meta AI was roughly No. 125. Gemini was still No. 1, albeit gated by invites.

  • Meta historically answered TikTok by putting Reels inside Instagram. If Sora keeps taking attention, Thompson sees two structural obstacles: Meta’s AI “just isn’t good enough” to match it, and users may not want AI video shoved into Instagram. “Attention is a precious thing.”

5. Vibes struggled because spectacle without narrative may not hold attention

  • Listeners emphasized that Reels, TikTok, and YouTube Shorts often offer humor, sex appeal, information, or a narrative arc, whereas Vibes served surreal visuals with bouncy music. One listener called it another step toward “atomized, isolated experiences” built to monetize attention.

  • Thompson accepted the criticism through his own publishing history. A technically strong analyst he once followed failed to attract subscribers because the work was dry; Stratechery succeeded partly because its best pieces supplied protagonists, beginnings, middles, and endings. “The lack of narrative or storytelling is not compelling to most people.”

  • His taste is genuinely atypical: ambient futuristic landscapes and Apple TV aerial screensavers feed an internal narrative already running “24/7,” while externally imposed stories can feel tiring. Vibes therefore resembled touching grass to him—“I like artificial grass. What can I say?”—but that preference created “a massive blind spot.”

  • Sharp admitted his own failure to push back: Thompson had noticed during their demo that “Andrew’s bored,” yet Sharp joined the enthusiastic endorsement. He now views Vibes and Sora as 1993–94-era computers—half-baked experiments whose present awkwardness may look charming once the next four or five years clarify the destination.

6. The broader criticism is attention decay

  • The closing outside critique came from Ashkay Kothari: why devote “our brightest minds, billions of dollars, and the most powerful GPUs on Earth” to another app that “optimizes for attention decay”? Sharp said versions of that question had recurred every 10 minutes on Twitter for the prior seven days, aimed at both Meta Vibes and Sora. It was presented as a recurring audience concern, not a settled conclusion from either host.
Andrew Sharp

Hello, and welcome to a free preview of Sharp Tech. Hello, and welcome back to another episode of Sharp Tech. I'm Andrew Sharp and on the other line, Ben Thompson. Ben, how are you doing?

Ben Thompson

Feeling chastised, Andrew, but we can get to the reasons why momentarily.

Andrew Sharp

Oh, boy.

Ben Thompson

No, I’m feeling old. That’s how I’m feeling.

Andrew Sharp

Is this related to our emergency episode dedicated to Meta’s Vibes last Friday?

Ben Thompson

It might be. I told you—that’s why I don’t do emergency episodes. No, I think it’s a very ripe topic for discussion, so I’m actually looking forward to this.

Andrew Sharp

It sure is. It feels like we’re recording in the middle of the slop revolution here. Very exciting stuff. We’re going to get to the Vibes reactions later in the episode, but I’m going to start with the news of this week, which was the release from OpenAI of Sora 2.

1. Sora Reaches The GPT Moment

I’ll read from an OpenAI blog post titled “Sora 2 Is Here.” They write:

“The original Sora model from February 2024 was in many ways the GPT-1 moment for video, the first time video generation started to seem like it was working, and simple behaviors like object permanence emerged from scaling up pre-training compute. Since then, the Sora team has been focused on training models with more advanced world simulation capabilities. We believe such systems will be critical for training AI models that deeply understand the physical world.

“A major milestone for this is mastering pre-training and post-training on large-scale video data, which are in their infancy compared to language. With Sora 2, we are jumping straight to what we think may be the GPT-3.5 moment for video. Sora 2 can do things that are exceptionally difficult and, in some instances, outright impossible for prior video generation models: Olympic gymnastics routines, backflips on a paddleboard that accurately model the dynamics of buoyancy and rigidity, and triple axels while a cat holds on for dear life.”

I’ll stop there, but we can go back to the sentence, “With Sora 2, we are jumping straight to what we think may be the GPT-3.5 moment for video.” GPT-3.5, of course, spawned ChatGPT. Is this a ChatGPT moment for generative video in your eyes?

Ben Thompson

So I kind of poo-pooed this statement. It seems awfully audacious to claim that we’re going to recreate one of the seminal moments in all of technological history.

Andrew Sharp

Yep.

Ben Thompson

And I think that’s probably still fair. I’m not sure if anything in our lifetime will ever quite match—

Andrew Sharp

It’s a very, very high bar.

Ben Thompson

Right.

Andrew Sharp

I think that’s worth noting, yes.

Ben Thompson

In fairness, though, to this post, it doesn’t say we’re jumping straight to the ChatGPT moment for video.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

Even though Sora has gone viral—it’s number 3 in the App Store. I think Meta AI is around 125 or something like that, which we’ll get to momentarily.

Andrew Sharp

Poor old Vibes. Yep.

Ben Thompson

What they did say is the GPT-3.5 moment, and I think that’s a distinction that I failed to appreciate when I was writing about this.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And it’s been a little painful. I almost did an emergency post yesterday because I was thinking, “I need to correct the record here.” But I’ll have to save it for next week and just marinate—

Andrew Sharp

Well, that’s what the podcast is for.

Ben Thompson

Yeah. I know, but some people don’t do both. So what was the 3.5 moment? GPT-1 was amazing, and GPT-2—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

GPT-2 was, I think, the one that really caught my eye. Then GPT-3 was like, wow, it’s actually making sense for a while, and then it would trail off into nothingness after a couple of paragraphs. And the difference is no one was paying attention at that time, right?

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

People who were watching were very impressed, but it wasn’t a phenomenon. By the time Sora came out, it was, “Oh, Sora is coming from the company that made ChatGPT.”

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And so it was a huge deal. In that context, it was impressive, but there were a lot of problems and a lot of issues here. And frankly, as we’ve discussed, Google sort of blew them out of the water with Veo, Veo 2, and Veo 3, whatever it’s called.

So backing up, in that context, Sora was like GPT-1, or even GPT-2 if you want to be generous. It’s showing emergent capability that is going to be a big deal but is not really useful yet.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

GPT-3.5 was useful. There were lots of issues with ChatGPT when it launched. It launched with GPT-3.5.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

But it was still incredibly impressive. It hallucinated way more than it does now. It wasn’t nearly comparable to GPT today, but it was good enough, and it was a finished thought. You got a cogent essay in response to a question, with a beginning, a middle, and an end that sort of all made sense.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

And because of that, it was consumable and impressive to people in a way that GPT-2, even GPT-3, weren’t quite there.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

If that is the framing they were going for here—and again, I should give them more credit and read their words closely instead of thinking about ChatGPT, which I was when I critiqued this sentence—then, yeah, that’s a fair way to characterize what we got with Sora 2.

It’s a finished thought. You can create 8-second videos, or however long they are, that hold together and are impressive. One of my learnings from this week is something I need to be on guard about when looking at these products: because I’m immersed in this and looking at everything, I probably consistently underrate what’s going to be a big deal and what isn’t—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

Because I’m not surprised by Sora 2’s capabilities.

Andrew Sharp

The capabilities, yeah. Okay.

Ben Thompson

What I’ve seen from other people using it is that it’s blowing their socks off. I’m like, well, this is—you know, I’ve been using Google Veo, for example. I’ve been making videos. I’m not surprised they can do this. There are some new things here that the other ones aren’t doing.

But people who are not tracking it closely download this app, and it’s like, “Holy cow.” This happened in January with DeepSeek, actually. There are lots of things that are interesting about the DeepSeek moment, but up to that date, OpenAI had thinking models where, instead of just spurting out an answer, the model stopped and thought about it and gave you a much better answer.

All the thinking models were only available to paying customers. So for a lot of free users, their first experience with a thinking model was actually DeepSeek. It wasn’t just the novelty of it being a Chinese app. They actually got a remarkably better experience when they downloaded this app, and it had a very cutesy way of telling you what it was thinking about. It would be like, “Oh, look at the model thinking,” or “The AI is trying to figure it out.”

Andrew Sharp

Like, “Wow, AI can do this?”

Ben Thompson

Right. Right. And so I’m thinking about how to talk about this and write about this, and I really feel there’s an angle here, which is the new emerging blind spots for me with AI. One of them is this.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

It’s underestimating, just because you can fast-forward and see, “Okay, this is going to happen,” that most people aren’t thinking about that. And when it lands, don’t underestimate what a big deal it is to drop a finished product. Now, is Sora 2 finished?

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

No. But it’s sufficiently finished to be something meaningful, like GPT-3.5 was. So actually, this sentence is very accurate.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah. Yeah. Well, for people who haven’t seen any of the Sora videos, I wrote down a sample of my Sora feed as of Thursday afternoon. One video was Ronald McDonald in a hamburger car in a high-speed police chase on the 110 in Los Angeles.

Ben Thompson

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp

Then there was Martin Luther King Jr. saying, “I have a dream that Xbox Game Pass was still $20.” There was a video of the movie Interstellar rendered with Minecraft animation. Another was Sam Altman acting in a movie where he says, “We were never OpenAI. Welcome to ClosedAI.”

And then there was Jesus Christ himself live-streaming, walking on water, and turning the ocean water to wine. Right before we came on to record, someone sent me a Sora clip of scenes from the movie Oppenheimer, except the characters are all SpongeBob characters. It feels pretty stupid to read all that aloud—

Ben Thompson

Well, it’s okay.

Andrew Sharp

But the slop era is here, Ben.

Ben Thompson

So, no, we’re—

Andrew Sharp

We’re all just—

Ben Thompson

We’re—

Andrew Sharp

Sidling up to the trough.

Ben Thompson

We’re into learning number 2.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

I personally do not find the Sora feed very compelling. I find the Jesus ones particularly annoying. I get a ton of them for some reason.

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

I don’t know. I don’t like the guy. I did like the Ronald McDonald police chase one. That one amused me.

Andrew Sharp

It elicited a—

Ben Thompson

O.J. Simpson.

Andrew Sharp

A half smile from me.

Ben Thompson

Yes.

Andrew Sharp

As I was reviewing it before the episode here.

Ben Thompson

But we talk on this podcast all the time about how I am the weirdo when it comes to entertainment choices, right?

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

I'm not the one who's watching a gazillion shows on TV, even the good ones.

Andrew Sharp

Yep.

Ben Thompson

I will treat myself, after a long week, on a Friday night, to an hour of Reels time, but—

Andrew Sharp

Uh-huh.

Ben Thompson

It is so addictive that I don't like to get in too deep. I try not to spend too much time there. I love Twitter.

Andrew Sharp

Put the phone down for the next—

Ben Thompson

The—

Andrew Sharp

12 to 18 hours—

Ben Thompson

The text sort of thing.

Andrew Sharp

Go touch grass.

Ben Thompson

I do have a note on Twitter, by the way, and phone usage that we should—

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

Maybe come back to in a little bit.

Andrew Sharp

Eagerly awaiting that later in the episode.

Ben Thompson

Yeah. So whatever I'm interested in is probably not what's going to be broadly popular. Whatever I'm not interested in might actually be popular. I sort of know that. I've known that for years.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

And it's maybe useful to be reminded of that sometimes. I still like Vibes better than Sora. I—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

Find it inspirational, interesting. I like these futuristic environments. I also liked Midjourney and the Discord. Now, the Discord thing was a big blocker. I never actually went there because it's such a pain to use Discord. But this ethereal, completely different world. I think someone called Vibes a screensaver.

Andrew Sharp

Hmm.

Ben Thompson

You know what I love?

Andrew Sharp

Screensavers.

Ben Thompson

The Apple TV aerial screensaver, where it's like—

Andrew Sharp

I don't mind that either.

Ben Thompson

The world shots flying around.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

I will watch it for a while. I find it very calming and a real wake-up call, honestly. This is an issue that I knew, but, yeah, I'm not—

Andrew Sharp

Well, thanks to the millions of people who have been using these generative AI video products, Ben has realized or remembered that he's a weirdo in the midst of—

Ben Thompson

That's right.

Andrew Sharp

The crowd there. Yeah, I think I have a few takes on what's happening and the ChatGPT parallels.

Ben Thompson

I need your takes.

Andrew Sharp

You're the resident normie. I need to be educated by you, please.

Andrew Sharp

Well, I have to guard against my own hater impulses on some of this stuff. But I think this probably is a technical breakthrough on par with what we saw with ChatGPT. I'm pretty blown away by the quality of these videos, and maybe that makes me the normie who would've been blown away by DeepSeek if I wasn't already subscribing to the advanced models.

Opening up the app, A, it's really easy to use and intuitive, and B, the quality is pretty high and pretty impressive. And it's photorealistic videos for the most part, which I gravitate toward as opposed to the Midjourney aesthetic and the kind of ethereal, dreamlike quality that you get with some of the other AI content, particularly Vibes.

And the virality I've experienced in my personal life over the last couple of days since Sora launched has included a few people who I would put in the normie category. They're not early-adopter tech obsessives texting me about how crazy this app is. That is much closer to ChatGPT than anything in AI that I've experienced over the last 2 years. So there's some real momentum.

Where I pump the brakes on the ChatGPT comparison, though, is the total absence of utility beyond entertainment. ChatGPT, I use every day for household stuff, asking about different projects I'm doing around the house, or asking questions about toddlers or whatnot.

The Sora app, I can't use it, and maybe this is just me. I find myself wanting to bail after looking at it for 90 seconds. I can't imagine getting lost in Sora for 30 minutes, 2 hours, whatever it may be. We have a friend who did that last night and was up until 2:00 or 3:00 AM on Sora, so clearly some people can do that.

But I'm struck by how useless it appears now. I'm not saying it's going to always be useless, but I do think that's an important distinction from what we saw with ChatGPT, where it wasn't just a parlor trick. People immediately found it easy to use and helpful in their daily life. I'm not sure where the path is for Sora to become that kind of tool for people in addition to entertainment. Does that make sense?

Ben Thompson

Well, I have 4 responses to what you dropped.

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

Number 1, I do think the bit that I mentioned about Vibes, about it being an all-AI feed, is still right.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

There's a bit where you mentioned you like that it's photorealistic and real-world. You're also going in cognitively aware that this is all fake—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Which lets you just enjoy it instead of trying to parse, video by video, whether this is real or fake. So I think that part of the take is still correct—number 1.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

Number 2, I agree it's super easy to make. This is really impressive. It's so much easier than Veo 3, whatever it's called.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Making videos is super easy, and—

Andrew Sharp

And by the way, that was what was cool about it for me. I was aware of Veo, Veo 3, and I was aware of Meta's Vibes, but this is just—oh, it's... If nothing else, it's a testament to what a great product company OpenAI is.

Ben Thompson

Yes. That is my exact take.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Not just a great product company, but they've done it again, to your point about being viral. They did it with ChatGPT, obviously. They had the Studio Ghibli moment with their image generation. They have this moment right here with Sora, clearly going viral. Three times is worth keeping track of. This isn't a—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

This isn't a thing that happened once, and that is notable and important, and I think something that we'll circle back to.

The bit about being a good product company and being easy to make: I talked about the 99/1 bit, where 1% of people create, 9% distribute, and 90% consume.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

The pushback I would have on your question about productivity is twofold. Number 1, everyone always dismisses entertainment-only apps as toys, not interesting, blah blah blah blah blah. ChatGPT actually helps me get work done. Guess what the most valuable companies do? They entertain you.

Andrew Sharp

Yes.

Help us shut off our brains.

Ben Thompson

That's right, and that is just a reality.

Andrew Sharp

They monetize us one minute at a time.

Ben Thompson

Yeah.

And so I wouldn't dismiss it on those grounds. I would actually—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

That would excite me on those grounds.

Number 2, they may be undoing that ratio. AI can actually make making stuff so much easier that that 1%—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Expands. And if you think about it, even if that 1% just goes to 2%, that's a doubling. That's a doubling—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

Of the people making compelling content, and I think on Sora there's a good chance it goes higher than that. We give lip service to, “Oh, AI will make more people creators.” I'm not sure we've fully internalized the implications of that.

We're talking about at least a doubling, maybe a tripling. Actually, maybe a decilling. What is 10 times? What does that mean for the amount of content that's out there, the likelihood of there being some brilliant creator who was limited by the necessity? We were just futzing around with video before here, right?

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Video is a big pain in the ass.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And to actually— I wrote, when the image generation stuff came out, I talked about the separation, the breaking apart of the idea and the substantiation of the idea. And that's a really big deal, and it's one of those things where I look at myself, even though I wrote that 3 years ago, and I think that was a very prescient observation on my part—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah, mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

Did I fully internalize that? Maybe not, so that's a pretty big deal.

2. Meta Faces An Attention Crisis

And the implication of these 4 observations is that Meta might be in big trouble. The reason is, at the end of the day, all their power, everything they have, all their ad business—it's all predicated on attention. And if someone else is consistently taking attention—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

When TikTok took a lot of attention, it hurt them badly. A lot of people on TikTok are not on Reels. But at the end of the day, they could wrap that up by shoving it into Instagram.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Can they? They have 2 problems if this continues to be a big deal. Number 1, their AI just isn't good enough. They can't shove it in. And number 2, does anyone want it shoved into Instagram? I—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

Like I said, I still think the take on AI—that a distinct AI feed is cognitively better to consume than a mixed one—remains the case. And it's a very disruptive bit where Sora gets to come in.

One of the questions was whether it was right to launch a new app or shove it into ChatGPT. I think the ChatGPT app right now on the phone is actually kind of annoying. Sometimes I want to continue a conversation, but you open the app and you're immediately in a new conversation.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

But I think that's actually a really good trade-off they make, because the time to get into conversing with ChatGPT is extremely low. In this case, I think not messing with that, not trying to shove this in, is a good thing from OpenAI's perspective.

I understood Meta doing it the opposite way, because they just want people to install the Meta AI app, which no one has, and to potentially use it. But to pull this off and get the app to number 3 in the App Store—by the way, Gemini's still number 1, albeit it's gated by invites, so we'll see what happens there—Meta might be in trouble here. Attention is a precious thing, and the route to recapturing it in this space has structural factors working against them.

3. Vibes Faces Audience Backlash

Andrew Sharp

Well, I got bad news for you, Ben. Meta's not the only one in trouble, because we have a sample of the Vibes reaction that we're going to read through now. We exhorted people to try Meta's Vibes on the Emergency podcast and said, “Email us. Email us your thoughts.” Let me tell you, Ben—

Ben Thompson

Oh, yeah, give it to me.

Andrew Sharp

The audience responded to that prompt.

Ben Thompson

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp

I'll read a sample. Okay.

Ben Thompson

Helps me stay humble. Give it to me.

Andrew Sharp

That's right. It's good for Ben, absolutely. This is character-building stuff.

Lulian says, “Ben, I was very surprised by your Meta Vibes take. People are addicted to Reels because they are either funny or sexy. AI slop can be neither. Artificial aesthetics without something visceral will quickly become boring.”

And Carlin says, “Ben and Andrew, I listen—”

Ben Thompson

Yep, I just want to acknowledge: yep, it's not funny or sexy. I like watching Apple TV screensavers. I'm going to take the L on that one. Continue.

Andrew Sharp

There you go. Plus one to Lulian.

Carlin says, “Ben and Andrew, I listen to the Emergency podcast, downloaded the new version of Meta AI, opened the app, and was hit immediately by a viscerally negative reaction. Most short-form video on TikTok, Reels, or YouTube Shorts has some kind of narrative arc, but none of the videos I saw in Vibes had anything resembling a narrative—just cutesy, surreal, or eye-catching visuals paired with bouncy music.

“The bull case is that creators can now use AI generation tools to create compelling narratives, but watching the initially seeded content, I was surprised that Ben was so thrilled by it. It's just one more step in the depressing arc of engrossing technology that drives our society toward atomized, isolated experiences in service of commodifying and monetizing our attention. Ben, go touch some Wisconsin grass.”

And Jeremy echoed that sentiment.

Ben Thompson

No, no, wait. If Carlin's going to come that hard, I'm going to come back in return. So here's—

Andrew Sharp

By all means. The floor is yours, sir.

4. Vibes Lacks The Narrative Hook

Ben Thompson

So overall, what Carlin is saying is right. It's funny, this is a lesson I learned with Stratechery over the years. When I started and it was successful, some other people would start sites, and I thought they wrote really interesting things. I was surprised at how relatively unsuccessful a few of them were.

There's one guy that sticks in my mind. I don't even know what happened to him. I'm not even sure he's on Twitter anymore, but he had really good takes that I consistently learned a lot from, and he tried the subscription model, and it went nowhere. I'm not even sure if he got 100 subscribers or something like that.

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

I was trying to figure out why I was successful and he wasn't. I realized that what he was posting, I thought, was very substantive. The analysis was very good. I was consistently evolving my thinking in reaction to what he wrote, and it was incredibly dry and boring.

Andrew Sharp

No narrative hook. It's all about telling a story.

Ben Thompson

Exactly.

Andrew Sharp

Yep.

Ben Thompson

The best Stratechery articles all tell a story. The reason why the main articles that are on the front page of Stratechery are so painful to write is that it's so hard to figure out what the narrative is. I know what I want to say from an analytical perspective, but for those ones, I want to deliver a narrative. I want to tell a story.

It needs to have a beginning, there needs to be some sort of protagonist, there needs to be a middle, and there needs to be an end.

And this was—I think, not to pat myself on the back—I didn't start Stratechery meaning to write this way. It just came fairly naturally to me, and that is unquestionably a critical factor in Stratechery's success, particularly in the early years. It would draw people in, and they'd want to read it, and it would feel very satisfying to consume it.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

I think there might be something similar here. It goes like the TV thing. I have a story in my head about the way the world works. Part of the reason—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

I find TV shows tiresome is I'm like, “I could go to Wikipedia and get the story here.” I'm just not caught up in someone else telling you the story. I love sports on TV because there's drama. There's uncertainty. I don't know what's going to happen.

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

I'd rather watch a bad baseball game than watch an episode of Succession, just because the potential for drama and uncertainty is what I find compelling. That's not in my head. That's something that I don't already have a thought on—the way this should go or what it should be.

And so when I would read this guy's analysis, I thought it was really good. I was reading it very actively, plugging what he said into my view of the world, thinking, “Hmm, that's interesting. I never thought about it that way,” et cetera. The narrative was in my head the whole time, so I didn't need his narrative.

Now, I'm not saying—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

This sounds hard to say without sounding like I'm just not someone who wants other people's narratives.

Andrew Sharp

Uh-huh.

Ben Thompson

For Vibes, I see some of these futuristic landscapes or these things, and I find them inspirational to my internal narrative. I'm thinking about this and what works. There's even an aerial Apple screensaver flyover of LAX airport, and I'm looking at it and looking at the traffic flows and how horrific it is, and where the planes park.

I'm just—it's hard being me. Whatever. My mind's just going a zillion miles per minute all the time, and I find the little narrative cutesy stuff—occasionally they're funny. I mostly just find it annoying in the videos. I'm like, “I have my own story. I don't want your story.”

Andrew Sharp

Uh-huh.

Ben Thompson

And this was such a massive blind spot. I was totally wrong. Again, I'm not saying I'm better or worse than other people. Whatever I'm talking about is certainly a function of why I've been writing Stratechery for 12.5 years now, writing multiple times a week.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

People ask me, “How can you generate so much content?” This is the answer. The answer is that I'm generating narratives in my head basically 24/7, and it's almost like a relief to be able to get a few out a week—

Andrew Sharp

You want your passive—

Ben Thompson

Sort of multiple times—

Andrew Sharp

—consumption to be narrative-free. That's what I'm taking away from this digression here.

Ben Thompson

That's right. Yeah, I always want an escape from narratives, right? Or I want drama and uncertainty because that's interesting. Again, I'm not saying this is a better way. It's actually a very annoying and painful way to live in many respects. I'm lucky I got a job—

Andrew Sharp

Uh-huh.

Ben Thompson

—that basically rewards this sort of mindset, but it was a massive blind spot. I think what Carlin is saying is actually totally correct. The lack of narrative or storytelling is not compelling to most people. I'm the weirdo—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

—here. And so I think this was, again, I think this was—

Andrew Sharp

Or even information. I think short-form video—I mean, a lot of people feel like they're learning when they're watching short-form video.

Ben Thompson

Right. I love cooking videos and stuff like that. I don't know how many cooking videos I've watched and never—

Andrew Sharp

Totally.

Ben Thompson

—implemented. I don't know if I've learned anything, but I do like those—

Andrew Sharp

Vibes is—

Ben Thompson

I'll tell you that.

Andrew Sharp

—completely devoid of any illusion of teaching you anything about anything, which is part of the problem and part of why people found it so viscerally upsetting toward the end of last week.

Ben Thompson

Again, I'm very hesitant to explain this. I want to explain it because I think I was wrong, and so I want to be honest. I always try to explain my thought process about how I got stuff wrong. I worry—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

—that the way I present this makes it sound like, “Oh, you know, I think about stories. I don't care.” But it's not like that at all. It's—

Andrew Sharp

No.

I mean, there's no question about it.

Ben Thompson

I'm the one that's wrong here, so—and it's funny because, for me, when Carlin says I need to touch some Wisconsin grass, this experience is more akin to touching grass because—

Andrew Sharp

Hm.

Ben Thompson

It's like stepping back from narrative for me—

Andrew Sharp

A refresh—

Ben Thompson

—is the relaxing—

Andrew Sharp

—for your brain.

Ben Thompson

—refreshing experience, right?

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

So, yeah. I like artificial grass. What can I say?

Andrew Sharp

Well, the Emergency Pod will live on in infamy as part of Sharp Tech lore. I'll just read one note from Alexander. He says, “Ben and Andrew, am I taking crazy pills? As a faithful Sharp Tech and GOAT listener, I immediately downloaded the Meta AI app and started flipping through some AI reels. After about 30 seconds, I closed the app, and I don't plan on opening it again for another 6 months.

“I can see Ben's vision of AI-created worlds that you can explore in VR, but an app which just serves me AI video slop set to catchy music doesn't do it for me. I don't want to watch an AI-generated slam dunk. I want to see a real NBA player do it. To Ben, do you think this product will be successful? To Andrew, I feel like Ben's excitement is what got you fired up to talk about the Meta AI app, but will you honestly ever open it up again?”

So, for my part—

Ben Thompson

Take some responsibility, Andrew.

Andrew Sharp

I will say—here's the thing. I record a lot of podcasts, Ben. I offer up lots of different opinions on lots of different things, and the only takes I ever regret on a podcast are takes where I feel like I haven't—

Ben Thompson

You agree with me?

Andrew Sharp

—accurately conveyed how I feel.

On the Vibes pod, you were in such a euphoric place. I didn't want to bring the party down by disclosing to the audience that, on the Zoom call where you were showing Vibes to me and Domin, you did have to stop at a certain point because you said, “Okay, Andrew's bored. Let's stop.” And that's how I feel. That more than anything captures my reaction to what's happening on Meta's Vibes app.

I think, in general, the way I've reframed it—because a lot of people were really, really upset about the Meta product, and I think that reaction is interesting in its own right—but for me, the way I've reframed this in my mind is I look at all of these video apps as if we're looking at computers in 1993 or 1994. Rather than looking at those apps and saying, “Is this useful? Does it matter? Is it dangerous?” I just think it's kind of an interesting glimpse at where things are right now.

All of the apps are horribly half-baked and full of unanswered questions about where it's going to be 4 or 5 years down the line. But I do think we'll be able to look back at this era as kind of charming, as every company is sort of clueless about how to do this. And so I'm enjoying that look into the process. I can't say that I was enjoying Meta's Vibes app all that much, and even 20 minutes after we finished recording, I was like, “What did I just endorse?” And so I do agree with most of the haters that emailed in afterward.

Ben Thompson

Yeah, real betrayal of your principles. I'm disappointed in you, along with Alexander. I do think, just to add on to this point, I've generally been optimistic about VR and this idea of AI-generated worlds.

Everyone should keep that in mind when I express that optimism. You mentioned that you liked the more photorealistic aspect of the Sora app, which I—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

—personally found less interesting. And that speaks to the fact that maybe these AI-generated worlds are not, to most people, going to be interesting. To some people—again, there's this whole universe of people that sit on Discord and just generate photos and go through them, for Midjourney, I mean, and find it really interesting.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

So, it's not that there won't be a market here. There are people that like to read sci-fi, for example, and like to imagine these fantastical worlds and these different technologies. And guess what? I liked reading sci-fi, right? Like—

Andrew Sharp

I was just going to say, I'm not really a sci-fi guy. And maybe that's—

Ben Thompson

No.

Andrew Sharp

—the problem with me and Vibes.

Ben Thompson

No, and most people aren't. I'm not sure if that's a perfect analogy, but I think there is something to it. Maybe this speaks to some of the critiques about worlds in your heads, or whatever it might be. I think I'm a pretty effective grass toucher—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

—I'm not too concerned about getting lost in this stuff. But I don't know. Maybe I need to revisit a lot of my questions and assumptions. I just think it's really interesting.

I always say that the most fascinating times for me on Stratechery are when I get something wrong. And—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

—this has been a big one for lots of reasons, and it is making me think about lots of things.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah. Well, as we continue thinking about where any of this is going—

Ben Thompson

Including your willingness to push back. You need to do better.

Andrew Sharp

Well, I know. At the very end of the podcast, where you were like, “You liked it too, right?” And then we both endorsed it on the way out, and I was like, “Ah, I should've taken that opportunity to say I got bored on the Zoom call.” But such is life, you know? All part of the fun with the Emergency Pod.

Ben Thompson

Yeah, whatever. Okay, you know.

Andrew Sharp

It's terrible.

Ben Thompson

Next one.

5. AI Optimizes Attention Decay

Andrew Sharp

I will read part of a tweet here from Ashkay Kothari on Twitter. He asks, “Why do we keep dedicating our brightest minds, billions of dollars, and the most powerful GPUs on Earth to building yet another app that optimizes for attention decay?”

I include that tweet not because it's especially unique, but because it's a question that has recurred every 10 minutes on Twitter for the last 7 days. It's a question people have about both Vibes and Sora. All right, and that is the end of the free preview. If you'd like to hear more from Ben and I, there are links to subscribe in the show notes, or you can also go to sharptech.fm. Either option will get you access to a personalized feed that has all the shows we do every week, plus lots more great content from Stratechery and the Stratechery Plus bundle. Check it out, and if you've got feedback, please email us at email@sharptech.fm.

(Preview) Sora 2 and an AI Video Boom, Meta’s Vibes One Week Later, Questions on TikTok, Solar Power, and the iPhone Air | BidClub