[BidClub_]
Sharp Tech · · 31 min

(Preview) The Anthropic Saga Continues, Fox and the Future of Streaming, Q&A on ChatGPT, Agentic Shopping, Autonomous Driving

Andrew SharpBen Thompson

Podcast
TL;DR
  • The Commerce Department’s directive suspended Fable 5 and Mythos access for foreign nationals, including those inside Anthropic, while Claude was pulled from the market entirely. Thompson thinks the administration may be demanding a technically impossible guarantee from probabilistic software, but Anthropic’s own conduct and rhetoric created the mistrust now driving policy. “Who gets final say?” is the real dispute.

  • Blocking frontier models may buy “weeks or months, maybe a year,” but it also delays the defensive work needed before comparable capabilities proliferate. Finding a vulnerability and helping patch it can be “the exact same request,” while defenders benefit from possessing their own code. Thompson’s preferred response is “the Manhattan Project we need”: inspect and repair web software and open-source projects at scale.

  • Anthropic’s safety narrative has created expectations of control that the technology cannot satisfy. After years of comparing AI with nuclear weapons and initially restricting Mythos through Project Glasswing, the company opened access roughly two months later. Sharp’s diagnosis: Anthropic promises something close to perfect security, then policymakers panic when jailbreaking proves unavoidable.

  • The clash is as much about institutional authority as cybersecurity. Sharp cited reports that Anthropic was slow to disclose 111 organizations with advanced Mythos access plus roughly 50 additional entities, including a South Korean company; Thompson pointed to the Department of War dispute, model “nerfing,” and Anthropic’s red line that “we get to decide how this is used.” The government may be technically misguided—and the directive might not survive court review—but Anthropic cannot credibly position itself above the state.

  • An AI bubble correction may punish companies that merely “plaster on AI to existing workflows.” Thompson expects the durable value to come from rebuilding products and organizations around probabilistic computing, comparable to replacing ads beside articles with algorithmic feeds. That transition takes years because users must first reset their assumptions about what software can do.

  • AI will probably be deeply disruptive, but confident forecasts about the exact outcome deserve skepticism. Thompson rejects both “nothing is going to happen” complacency and Anthropic-style prescriptiveness: the internet reshaped society over 25 years in ways no one in 1993 could have mapped, and AI might be larger. The missing ingredient is “epistemic… humility.”

  • World Cup hydration breaks illustrate how a transparent money grab can also improve the product. Thompson argued that the extra commercial inventory lets exhausted players reset, citing Croatia’s comeback before England ultimately won 4–2; Sharp agreed that “fewer exhausted players is a good thing” but said the pauses should simply be called commercial breaks. The broader media call is Thompson’s enthusiasm for the “eventization of sports”—premium tournaments over routine weekly inventory.

Digest · the substance, structured for research

1. Hydration breaks monetize soccer while improving the spectacle

  • Thompson calls America’s habit of reaching policy goals through awkward mechanisms “the stupidest way possible”: emergency-room access becomes de facto universal healthcare, AI data-center spending becomes a backdoor way to put money in people’s pockets, and player-safety pauses become lucrative World Cup commercial breaks.

  • His counterintuitive defense is that the break can improve competition. Croatia had been “on their heels” against England, then reset, scored a couple of goals, and made an eventual 4–2 England victory gripping; fewer exhausted players also means more athletes “performing at their best.”

  • Sharp accepted the product argument but rejected the euphemism: call them commercial breaks and admit the profit optimization. Thompson’s broader viewing preference is the “eventization of sports”—World Cups, tennis’s Big Four, and major golf tournaments, with none of the weekly commitment.

2. Fable export controls expose a conflict built on incomplete information

  • Sharp’s factual anchor: late Friday, Commerce directed suspension of Fable 5 and Mythos access for every foreign national, “inside or outside the United States”—and, Thompson added, inside or outside Anthropic. Claude was pulled from the market altogether and remained unavailable as they recorded Thursday.

  • Thompson had briefly experienced Fable as a genuine capability leap and joked about being forced back to “only 5.5 in Opus.” Yet he stressed that non-public information makes the confrontation unusually difficult to assess: “What do we not know?”

  • The reported catalyst was Amazon jailbreaking Fable and raising concerns with the White House. Thompson cautioned that the public account came through a researcher who saw an Anthropic report—“this is all Anthropic spin”—but found plausible the claim that slightly changing a prompt enabled vulnerability discovery.

  • His Occam’s razor explanation leaves blame on both sides: the government says stop a behavior, Anthropic says “you can’t stop it,” and officials hear another refusal from a company that has already created “conditions of mistrust.” Thompson therefore wondered whether he had been “a little too hard on Anthropic” that week.

3. Probabilistic software makes perfect restrictions the wrong objective

  • Thompson’s decisive example: “Find the vulnerability in this software” and “help me patch vulnerabilities in this software” are “the exact same request.” A deterministic system can prohibit a defined function; a general model cannot reliably separate malicious and defensive intent without sacrificing useful capability.

  • Autonomous driving supplies the analogy. Years of hard-coding every road scenario failed because the variables were effectively unbounded; end-to-end models became viable by generalizing from enormous numbers of situations and developing internal heuristics for events they had never explicitly encountered.

  • Thompson sees the same category error when people treat AI as “a fancy search engine.” Sharp’s early use of ChatGPT to retrieve sports statistics was “the exact wrong function”: the model’s strength comes precisely from not being deterministically designed for every query.

  • With Mythos-level capabilities likely to appear elsewhere, Thompson said the White House seems to be putting a “thumb in the dike” when “the wave is going to go over the whole wall.” Every day of restricted access is also a day defenders cannot use the leading model to find and repair weaknesses.

4. Cyber defense requires going through the danger, not around it

  • Thompson did not minimize the threat: “Almost all software on the web is likely insecure.” His claim is narrower—that access cannot be foreclosed forever, so “the only way to solve the security problem is to go through it” and patch aggressively before the capability becomes broadly available.

  • Defenders retain an important advantage because they possess the code and can inspect and repair it directly; an outside attacker must infer an obscured system. The required mobilization is “the Manhattan Project we need,” spanning web codebases and open-source projects.

  • Anthropic deserves credit for Project Glasswing’s defensive work, but its messaging helped trigger the backlash. It spent years likening AI to nuclear weapons, said Mythos was too dangerous for release while it secured banks and big technology companies, then roughly two months later made it widely usable.

  • Sharp’s pushback sharpened the contradiction: Anthropic created an expectation of perfect security and exclusive stewardship, then appeared surprised when policymakers tried to reclaim control after discovering safeguards could be bypassed. “If you’re talking about a super weapon,” government authority is the inevitable destination.

5. Anthropic’s real problem is its claim to final authority

  • Thompson’s objection is not that Anthropic worries about safety, but its recurring implication that “only we can handle this. Only we are responsible.” His blunt logical construction: if Anthropic should run AI and AI will run the world, then Anthropic is effectively saying it should run the world.

  • Sharp asked whether that charge relied too heavily on inference. Thompson answered with the Department of War dispute, where Anthropic’s red line was “we get to decide how this is used,” plus its demonstrated willingness to silently nerf models when behavior violates its preferences.

  • Sharp added reports of 111 organizations receiving advanced Mythos access and roughly 50 more entities disclosed later, including a South Korean company. Anthropic’s slowness suggested it still had not absorbed that “the government is ultimately in charge,” even if the export-control mechanism might be legally or technically unsound.

  • Thompson’s Microsoft review supplied the organizational diagnosis: “Your what is excellent. Your how needs a lot of work.” But he ultimately conceded the failure is substantive too—an assertion of authority over customers, companies, and the federal government by people who may not understand “the reality of the world as it actually is.”

6. AI value will emerge from redesigned workflows and humbler forecasts

  • Thompson expects part of the AI crash to come from businesses trying to “plaster on AI to existing workflows,” becoming frustrated when a probabilistic system will not behave like conventional software. Durable companies will instead rethink the workflow itself, much as internet media moved from ads beside articles to feeds.

  • That reconstruction takes years because people must reset their expectations before new organizational forms become obvious. The internet transformed society over roughly 25 years; Thompson noted that someone in 1993 would never have predicted its effects on media would eventually help produce a Trump administration.

  • AI may be even bigger, but Thompson rejects both denial and “the certainty and prescriptiveness” of confident safety elites. Understanding AI does not mean knowing everything about society; his positive prescription is more doubt, better communication, and “humility” about outcomes no institution can map in advance.

Andrew Sharp

Hello, and welcome to a free preview of Sharp Tech. Hello, and welcome back to another episode of Sharp Tech. I'm Andrew Sharp, and on the other line, Ben Thompson.

Ben, how are you doing?

Ben Thompson

Sad, Andrew.

Andrew Sharp

Why?

Ben Thompson

Sad because I've been forced over the last week to use these really crappy AI models. Only 5.5 in Opus. Where's Fable?

Andrew Sharp

Oh, boy.

Ben Thompson

I told you Fable was good.

Andrew Sharp

Somebody needs to jailbreak Fable back to life for us, man.

Ben Thompson

We did need the 48 hours of truly leap forward in terms of model capabilities just to be truly—

Andrew Sharp

Poor Ben. His wings have been clipped here. Yeah, now here we are, living in the Stone Age. But look, it's only a matter of days until the rule is reversed and Fable is brought back to life, would be my guess.

Ben Thompson

I was going to say—

Andrew Sharp

We're going to start with Anthropic.

Ben Thompson

Was that Andrew Sharp Reports, or—

Andrew Sharp

No, look. It occurred to me as we came on to record and talk about the export controls and everything else that by Friday night, I'm sure there will be a twist that renders half of this obsolete. We're not going to start with Anthropic, though, actually, because you informed me that you have a World Cup take related to the hydration breaks.

Ben Thompson

Oh, you want to bring—

Andrew Sharp

And—

Ben Thompson

No, I don't know if we can do this at the top of the show because—

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

I'm concerned I'm going to make people so mad that—

Andrew Sharp

They will hit stop and unsubscribe.

Ben Thompson

Right. Well, if it was at the end of the show, then they might go and unsubscribe, but at least they've listened to the whole show. But if we put it up front, they might not listen to the rest of the episode. Although maybe if we make the rest of the episode really good, they'll decide to continue to be subscribers.

Andrew Sharp

A bit of grace after 90 minutes. Fine.

Ben Thompson

Okay.

Andrew Sharp

We can save it to the end.

Ben Thompson

No, that's fine. I'll drop it. Okay, here you go. Here's my World Cup hydration take. You remember previously, people sort of got annoyed at this, but I still stand by it.

The U.S. implements these policies in the stupidest way possible, right? So, as I said, we have universal health care: everyone has to be served by an emergency room. That made a lot of people mad, but I stand by it. The fact of the matter is, if you're in an emergency, you're going to get health care. That is universal health care in the stupidest way possible. “Oh, it doesn't cover preventive care.” Yes, I know. It's dumb.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah, in a very narrowly defined way, it's universal health care.

Ben Thompson

Right. The point of making that analogy is that it's a really stupid way to accomplish policy. Or, if that was in the context of AI data centers, they're just going to end up paying people to build them, and that's how we're going to backdoor into AI putting money in people's pockets.

Andrew Sharp

UBI.

Ben Thompson

Right?

Andrew Sharp

Right.

Ben Thompson

Yes.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

So, this is the stupidest way possible. This is the context for my hydration-break take.

Soccer is—and it is called soccer, by the way. Do you know where the word “soccer” comes from?

Andrew Sharp

I have no idea. Where?

Ben Thompson

It comes from England, to be clear.

Andrew Sharp

Okay, great.

Ben Thompson

Football was a sport played on your feet, as opposed to on horses, and then there was association football. S-O-C-C was soccer, came from England. I'm sorry that we preserved English culture better than they did and used the word soccer.

Andrew Sharp

And we've been getting it wrong for 150 years. What the hell happened, England?

Ben Thompson

That's right. Okay, no, wait, that's not the take. Don't unsubscribe yet. Give me a couple more minutes and I'll really make you mad. Soccer has all these traditions, the way it's always been played.

One of them is that you have 45-minute halves, the clock doesn't stop, and that's just part of it. The whole thing with the hydration break is, well, the U.S. is really hot. Number one, come on. Get over yourselves.

Andrew Sharp

It's not that hot.

Ben Thompson

Seriously. This is tied into the whole thing. Go to Taiwan in the summer. That's hot. I would come back to Wisconsin every year, and people would say, “How do you go to Wisconsin in the summer? It's so humid.” I'm like, “It's not humid at all.”

But it's not that hot. Whatever. Everyone's like, “It's so hot. We need to have some games where it's going to be too hot. Players need to stop for their health and safety and get water. If we do it in some games, it won't be fair. We have to do it for all the games.” What it's actually doing is giving us an extra commercial break in the middle of the game.

Andrew Sharp

Right.

Ben Thompson

It's like a commercial break, but you're not going to change the channel because you're in the middle of the game. It's a huge moneymaker. Everyone's upset about it: “You're destroying soccer just to make a few bucks,” blah, blah, blah.

Here's my take: we're actually fixing soccer. One of the complaints about the hydration break is that the momentum changes. A team is on its heels—

Andrew Sharp

The purists hate it because it's actually changing some of the outcomes of these games. Players come out of it—I think Haaland scored right after a hydration break. That's Erling Haaland, the player.

Ben Thompson

Well, it happened in the England-Croatia game yesterday. Croatia was on its heels. They came out, reset, and scored a few goals. And guess what? England was definitely the better team than Croatia. England was incredibly impressive in that game.

That game was so much more entertaining because the hydration break allowed Croatia to reset and score a couple of goals, which made it very gripping. England ended up winning 4–2. It made the game better. Guess what? Corners are a good idea.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Hydration breaks—a blatant sort of “grow up, it's not that hot out” combined with a pure money grab. We're backing into making soccer better, and everyone should thank us for it.

Andrew Sharp

Fewer exhausted players is a good thing, I think. That's the kernel of the take.

Ben Thompson

Exactly. I like to see people performing at their best, uh, Suby.

Andrew Sharp

Don't unsubscribe, but that's my take.

Ben Thompson

And don't sue Ben.

That's right.

Andrew Sharp

My take on hydration breaks is that they should just be called commercial breaks, so maybe we'll get there by the time we get to the next World Cup. I do understand the instinctive rage at branding this profit-optimization strategy as a player-safety initiative.

Ben Thompson

That's right. There's a lot to be said for just being honest, okay? And guess what? You know what's good for the game? If everyone's making more money.

Andrew Sharp

We're all adults here.

Ben Thompson

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp

If everybody else has commercial breaks, it's fine. I hadn't considered the idea that it's actually going to make the second halves more entertaining than they would be otherwise. So, as far as I'm concerned, not a bad hydration-break take, soccer fans—

Ben Thompson

You know what?

Andrew Sharp

—of the world, or football fans—

Ben Thompson

And if you're super excited for the game, imagine that the U.S. is playing Australia tomorrow. Maybe you've already watched it by the time you listen to this. Maybe you're pre-partying; you're getting ready. You know what you might need? A dehydration break. In the middle of a half, run to the bathroom.

Andrew Sharp

There we go.

Ben Thompson

All good from my perspective.

Andrew Sharp

Well, my number-one World Cup take—

Ben Thompson

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp

You created a giant World Cup group chat, and there are 15 different people in there. You added me without asking me, so I've been in there for the past week.

Ben Thompson

Because you were dropping World Cup takes in other group chats, so I thought you wanted in.

Andrew Sharp

I was dropping Champions League final takes a couple of weeks ago, not World Cup takes. But being in the group chat, I'm fairly busy. I've got 2 toddlers and a bunch of podcasts. You are busier than I am, though, and I am flabbergasted by how many World Cup games you've consumed over the past week or so. You continue to be the biggest sports fan I've ever met, so congratulations.

Ben Thompson

Well, thank you. I love the World Cup. It's great. Games are on all day. Did you see Xu Xi Jin, the Chinese propagandist?

Andrew Sharp

No.

Ben Thompson

Oh yeah, he put out a tweet complaining about the game times, that they should be catering to China as far as when the games were played. The games are being played from 11 in the morning until 1 in the morning.

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

Relax, okay?

Andrew Sharp

9:00 PM Pacific.

Ben Thompson

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp

Some of the games are clearly being catered to China, so China’s being taken care of here. And you’re watching almost every single one. I’m getting texts from you throughout the day about different World Cup games I didn’t even know were happening. So I look forward to joining you probably by the time we get to the knockout round.

Ben Thompson

Well, just in general, what’s great about the World Cup, I’m not actually a soccer watcher. Every World Cup, I think, “Oh, I should watch more soccer.” No, it doesn’t happen. The whole week, I’m sure it’s great. I appreciate the quality of play with teams that play together all year. I get it in theory.

Andrew Sharp

Whatever.

Ben Thompson

I am all in on the eventization of sports. I love big events. It’s like tennis: I watch the Big Four. I don’t watch your regular tennis match.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

I will watch the big golf tournaments. I’m not watching it every week. I want events. I’m in on the events. I enjoy the atmosphere around the events and the social media around events, and I don’t want to deal with it the rest of the year, so it’s perfect.

Andrew Sharp

There you go. Well, I would say I’m halfway in on the World Cup but all the way in on America, and I had a great time watching USA’s opening match and will be watching on Friday night in Seattle. But for now, Ben, we have news to get to. We did talk Anthropic and Fable last week, but as I’m sure 98% of the audience knows by now, late Friday afternoon the Commerce Department issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States. So Fable was—

Ben Thompson

Or inside or outside of Anthropic.

Andrew Sharp

Right, indeed. That was part of the problem as well. Claude was pulled from the market altogether and remains off the market, as you noted at the top. As we record this Thursday afternoon, that directive is in place. We’ll see how much longer it lasts. What do you think of where we are right now? It’s kind of a frustrating story to talk and write about because, on one hand, it’s the biggest story in technology. It also seems like there’s a good bit of nonpublic information that’s informing behavior here. So how do you wrap your arms around where we are?

Ben Thompson

It’s hard to wrap your arms around it, in part because of what you said there. What do we not know?

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

It’s also hard because everyone in this situation is incredibly frustrating to me on a personal level.

Andrew Sharp

Great.

Ben Thompson

So I actually feel like, almost this week, I took the opportunity to just write about Anthropic in general. We don’t need to rehash it because we talked about it on Sharp Tech last week.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And that was one of those times when I actually got a fair number of requests like, “You need to write this out”—this idea of the sort of fusion of the safety culture with lots of choices that they make that are great for their business.

Andrew Sharp

Business incentives.

Ben Thompson

Yeah, what a magical alchemy that is. So I wrote that on Monday. We already covered it last week. You can go listen to that. But Fable was a way into that, and I said it there. I’m not actually going to really talk about this because who knows what the heck is going on? But implicit in that—and anyone who’s been listening to these podcasts for a while knows this—is an overall frustration with Anthropic and a general concern about this company, not because they’re purposely being bad actors.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

But my overarching concern about people who think they are the only ones who are trustworthy and ought to make decisions for the rest of humanity is that it’s just bad.

Andrew Sharp

The track record is not great.

Ben Thompson

Yeah, I don’t think that works. And that underlies so much about their posture in general. There was a write-up on this AI summit, or whatever, a day or two ago.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah, G7.

Ben Thompson

And you could just see in Altman’s comments that he clearly doesn’t trust OpenAI. He kind of trusts Google. But it’s like, “We should decide.”

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And I think Altman took a much better approach, which is actually, “We shouldn’t be deciding. Someone else needs to be deciding.” That’s closer to my sensibilities, I would say, for sure. So in general, I’m frustrated with Anthropic, not just in this case.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

At the same time, from what we’ve been able to garner, there’s a very good chance that the administration is just being incredibly stupid here.

Andrew Sharp

Hmm.

Ben Thompson

And so I almost feel like I’ve been a little too hard on Anthropic this week because, from what I can gather—and again, who knows? We don’t have enough details about what’s happening or what’s not happening—there’s sort of an Occam’s razor explanation here, which is the US administration is like, “Stop it from doing this thing.”

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

And Anthropic is like, “You can’t stop it from doing this thing.”

Andrew Sharp

That’s not how AI works.

Ben Thompson

That’s not how it works. The example here is, what’s the difference between “Find the vulnerability in this software” versus “Help me patch vulnerabilities in this software”? It’s the exact same request, and the reality is Mythos is clearly—if you used Fable, you could just feel it—it’s clearly ahead. It’s something new. No one has anything to match it. But if the history of the last few months and years continues, we’re going to have Mythos-level models in the near future.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

And so what is the best possible thing we can do knowing that’s coming? Everyone needs to be working overtime to patch their vulnerabilities.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And we’ve been talking about this for several months on Sharp Tech. It’s going to be a messy few years, and it feels like there’s this sense in the White House of trying to patch things, put your thumb in the dike against this wave that’s coming.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

And the reality is, the wave is going to go over the whole wall. It’s going to be a mess, and the best thing we can do is—offense is the best defense. I don’t know if that’s the right analogy here. But go out there and work feverishly for the next little bit to fix as many vulnerabilities as we can before this is truly broadly available. And every day that this conflict is going on is a day when people aren’t able to do this.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

And I think it comes back to this—and this is where I do bring Anthropic back into the conversation—how many people in the White House understand how AI works?

Andrew Sharp

There are some people in the White House, for sure, who understand how AI works.

Ben Thompson

Mm-hmm.

Andrew Sharp

But at the highest levels, this distinction between a probabilistic piece of software versus a deterministic one—

With a deterministic system, you could say, “You can’t make this available,” and, “This isn’t possible,” and you could hit some buttons to turn off different features that create unreasonable risks. You can’t really do that with AI.

Ben Thompson

Right. That’s like the magic of AI, right? The strengths and weaknesses apply to everything. The reason AI can do that—is it truly fully generalizable? I think not as much as the advocates claim, but it’s pretty darn generalizable—is precisely because it’s not deterministically designed to handle every sort of thing.

We see this in self-driving cars, right? The reason why self-driving cars took forever to actually be viable is because people spent years trying to hard-code every single scenario that a car might encounter.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

There are so many variables in a car that you can’t do that. What you need to do is have an end-to-end model that is basically—not exactly the same as an LM, but the same concept of a neural net—that generalizes from being exposed to tons and tons and tons and tons of scenarios and develops its own sort of internal heuristics and probability distributions, such that when something new happens, it kind of knows how to react—

Andrew Sharp

It can adapt.

Ben Thompson

—without being—

Andrew Sharp

Yep.

Ben Thompson

—told what to do. And you think about this: it’s not just that it’s not deterministic, it’s that putting deterministic rules into that functionality makes it worse in many respects because you’re actually limiting it artificially in its capability to understand different situations. We’re just moving into this fundamentally new paradigm that’s totally different, and it’s really easy for people to look at AI as a fancy search engine.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

We had this conversation a few years ago.

You used AI for the greatest-of-all-time talk and looked up some stats.

Andrew Sharp

Oh, yeah. Which, by the way, it’s gotten a lot better at pulling recent stats.

Ben Thompson

For sure.

Andrew Sharp

And everything else—it’s a lot more accurate than it was 2.5 years ago. But indeed, it’s a different sort of tool than traditional Google.

Ben Thompson

Right. And what I told you at the time was like, “No, that’s the exact wrong function that you’re trying to do.”

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Right?

Andrew Sharp

It’s the worst thing you could use ChatGPT for.

Ben Thompson

Well, then this gets into so many issues, or so many concepts that flow out of this. One point that I made again and again is: What is the shape of the crash going to look like, or the bubble popping?

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

What it’s going to look like is people attempting to plaster AI onto existing workflows that were built around a certain way of computing, being frustrated that it continually doesn’t work. And then what’s actually going to happen is people are going to completely rethink their approaches.

This idea of moving from putting advertising next to an article to a feed—like the—

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Like AI—

Andrew Sharp

Create new companies built atop this technology to take—

Ben Thompson

That’s right.

Andrew Sharp

—advantage of it.

Ben Thompson

That’s right. And so the challenge is, this takes years. It takes a long time for people to even reset their expectations of what’s possible and what this means. And in the meantime, what we do have is this ability to look at code bases, find vulnerabilities, and exploit them—basically autonomously.

Andrew Sharp

Hack the planet. Just like Hackers. Great movie. So, to anchor people in this take, I think a lot of this springs from the report that Amazon was able to jailbreak Fable and raise some concerns with the White House—

Ben Thompson

Right, and no one knows for sure what this jailbreak is, right? There’s this analyst-researcher who saw a report from Anthropic, so this is all Anthropic spin, to be clear—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

—who characterized it as very basic: just slightly change your wording, and now it’s looking for vulnerabilities. Which I think, again, is an Occam’s razor explanation. You could believe that would happen.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And then Anthropic is saying, “Well, look, that’s very minor. You can’t stop that.” And the White House is saying, “You guys are doing it again. We’re just asking you to stop it, and you won’t stop it.” And that’s where Anthropic’s at fault. They’ve created the conditions of mistrust with the administration.

Andrew Sharp

And also, though, is the core issue for Anthropic that the way they discuss AI risk then creates unreasonable expectations for how it can be managed?

Ben Thompson

Of course. The whole Mythos rollout about this is like, they go on for years talking about AI being like nuclear weapons. Then they have this huge Project Glasswing: “This is way too dangerous to release. We’re going to secure the banks and secure the big tech companies.” And then 2 months later, “Okay, everyone can use it now.” And then you turn around and you’re creating the conditions for this reaction.

Andrew Sharp

They create the expectation of perfect security, given how dangerous this weapon is for the whole world, and we’re going to be very careful. And then when it’s revealed that you can’t possibly paper over every possible risk that arises from this technology, other people who have been paying attention freak out and start to try to take back control. It seems like that’s some of what’s happened here.

Ben Thompson

Yeah. Well, the problem is that—I’m not minimizing the risk—it’s actually quite scary. Almost all software on the web is likely insecure.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

But the problem is that you’re not going to foreclose that forever.

Andrew Sharp

Entirely, no.

Ben Thompson

Yeah. What is the administration buying with this? Weeks or months, maybe a year.

Andrew Sharp

Okay.

Ben Thompson

The only way to solve the security problem is to go through it—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

—is to actually work and patch stuff like crazy. And by the way, the defenders have an advantage. They have the code.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

They can examine their code bases. They can fix the problems. Even if you’re attacking something from the outside, it’s a little bit more of a challenge. It’s more obfuscated. You have to sort of figure it out.

The Manhattan Project we need is a whole-scale effort: let’s go through all this code on the web, all these open-source projects. Which, to Anthropic’s credit, they did do. That’s the sort of aspect of Project Glasswing. But we’re just not there. There’s just not an acceptance of this reality.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah. Well, Michael says, “If Ben’s going to get so outraged about Anthropic’s actions even when he believes the safety threat is real, I’d love to hear a positive vision for what they should be doing to address safety concerns that wouldn’t be self-serving. I agree with Ben’s analysis about this being a convenient source of cultural alignment with the business incentives, but I just don’t have a problem with it. What am I missing?”

So, if you were running policy at Anthropic, what would you advise them to do to handle some of the safety risks?

Ben Thompson

The problem I have with Anthropic is the implicit and sometimes explicit message: “Only we can handle this. Only we are responsible. Only we are properly concerned about the dangers.”

And what’s implicit in that is, only we should control AI, combined with the rhetoric that AI is going to run the world. People got mad at the sentence in my article, but it’s just a logical construction. If A equals B and B equals C, then A equals C. They want to run the world. That’s the implication of saying, “We should run AI, and AI is going to run the world.”

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Andrew Sharp

I mean, how explicitly have they ever said, “We should run AI”? Is it more an inference from their behavior?

Ben Thompson

Yeah. Their behavior and, I think, their rhetoric. They clearly don’t think Sam Altman should run AI, that’s for sure—which, by the way, I completely agree with, to be clear.

Andrew Sharp

That’s true. Yeah.

Andrew Sharp

And it sounds like, to Sam’s credit, even Sam agrees on that point at this stage.

Ben Thompson

Well, he’s cleaned up his rhetoric a lot. I think there was a lot of bad rhetoric that came out. And this is the challenge, because people are like, “Look, why shouldn’t they talk about job upheaval?” No, there’s the opposite mistake, which is to say nothing is going to happen, when you’re basically lying through your teeth.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

And I think there’s an aspect of that in Silicon Valley that says nothing is going to happen. No, it is going to be disruptive. Now, we might not know exactly how it’s going to be disruptive. You go back to the internet. The internet was incredibly disruptive.

Andrew Sharp

Right.

Ben Thompson

The entire structure of society—

Andrew Sharp

It took 25 years. We were the frogs in the boiling water for a while there.

Ben Thompson

This administration is the Trump administration, which is directly downstream from the structural changes wrought by the internet and what it did to media. Imagine going back to 1993 or whatever, when the World Wide Web comes out, and saying, “This is going to lead to Donald Trump being president.” It would have blown people’s minds. AI is going to be arguably even bigger.

But part of the problem is the certainty and prescriptiveness of what’s going to happen.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

There’s an aspect of this: things are going to change, and I think everyone could do with a little more doubt. What’s the word I’m looking for? Epistemic doubt.

Andrew Sharp

Humility?

Ben Thompson

Humility about the fact that we don’t know what’s going to happen. This idea of just explaining why this is different—

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

—appreciating that just because you understand AI and other people don’t doesn’t necessarily, one, mean you’re smarter than them, although often you are, to be fair, or two, that you know everything about everything because of this factor, right?

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

You’ve been in conversations with people where they’re explaining something to you, and their tone and approach is so patronizing, and it just is infuriating, and you’re like, “Screw this guy. I don’t care.”

Andrew Sharp

Are you describing conversations that you and I have had about various consumer technology that you demand that I adopt and then I stubbornly refuse to?

Ben Thompson

Right, and you want to punch me in the face.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Maybe I can identify this attitude because I can personify it at times. That’s a fair pushback.

I think the emailer does have his finger on something. When I was at Microsoft, I remember I never got promoted, and I was very frustrated about it.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

I ended up on this team where I was actually a level 61, and everyone else on the team was level 63. I was doing all the work, and I thought I should get promoted. But the one piece of feedback I remember getting at my year review or something like that was, “Your what is excellent. Your how needs a lot of work.”

There was this idea that it wasn’t just my manager that had to be involved—the other managers on the promotion committee, the manager above the manager, and all those people.

Andrew Sharp

That’s amazing.

Ben Thompson

There’s an aspect of corporate politics that is just putting on a happy face, talking to people, and selling yourself and your ideas. This is why I didn’t last long in corporate America. I’m much better off, I think, on my own, to say the least.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

There’s an aspect here to my feedback to Anthropic: your what is fine. It’s the how that needs work.

Andrew Sharp

Right.

Ben Thompson

You need to figure out how to communicate these things.

Andrew Sharp

And to describe it, there needs to be a capacity for risk tolerance over the next 4 or 5 years, and there’s not much of that coming from Anthropic in the course of these conversations. They create the illusion of perfect security as long as they’re the ones in charge of that security, and that’s going to be a problem long term.

I’m open to the possibility that members of the Trump administration simply don’t understand that you can’t keep these models from being jailbroken, and you can’t reduce the risks on that front. I will also note, though, that there was that report in The Washington Post about Anthropic giving the government a list of 111 organizations that had advanced access to Mythos, and then there were an additional 50 or so entities that were added and had already received access.

Anthropic was slow to get that list of companies to the government, as the government was asking, “Who actually has access to Mythos?” One of the entities was a South Korean company. What’s interesting in that report is it seems like Anthropic still doesn’t understand that the government is ultimately in charge, and it’s really not that complicated. Dealing with the government shouldn’t be as impossible as Anthropic is making it look.

Ben Thompson

Yeah.

Andrew Sharp

So again, blame belongs on both sides of the equation here.

Ben Thompson

This goes back to the Department of War debate, which ultimately is a philosophical question of who’s in charge. The fundamental problem with Anthropic’s how is actually not just the how; it’s the substance.

In that debate, their red line was, “We get to decide how this is used.” So, as you asked earlier for evidence of them saying they should be in charge of AI, there’s your example.

Andrew Sharp

That’s the evidence. Yeah.

Ben Thompson

They’ve already demonstrated it. And by the way, we talked about this last week: they’ve also demonstrated the capability and willingness to silently nerf their models to stop behavior that they don’t think is acceptable.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

This is the core issue. There’s an assertion of authority that is reserved solely for them, and it’s not just with their customers, it’s not just with other companies, it’s with the federal government. That is the fundamental issue.

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

It actually does go back to that episode.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

That’s the issue here: they’re trying to dictate terms, and the government is probably being dumb. The export-control thing—who knows if it’s even legal or whatever it might be? That’s for the courts to decide. My guess is probably not, right?

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

Ben Thompson

What’s actually happening is the exact same battle that was happening before.

Andrew Sharp

Yeah.

Ben Thompson

Who gets final say?

Andrew Sharp

And when the government says jump, Anthropic should say, “How high? You want the additional 50 entities? Here are the additional 50 entities. You have a problem with this South Korean entity?”

Ben Thompson

How’s that boot taste, Andrew?

Andrew Sharp

Well, no, that’s just the way it’s going to work.

Ben Thompson

Right.

Andrew Sharp

And so—

Ben Thompson

No, that’s the thing.

Andrew Sharp

It’s inevitable. If you’re talking about a superweapon that poses dangers to the entire world, this is the inevitable conclusion of that conversation. But they still have not fully grokked that—

Ben Thompson

And that’s what’s so frustrating: the people who are implicitly saying they should decide everything seem incapable of understanding the reality of the world as it actually is. If you can’t understand the reality of the world as it actually is, on what basis should I have faith that you get to decide how the world is going to be?

Andrew Sharp

Mm-hmm.

All right, and that is the end of the free preview. If you'd like to hear more from Ben and I, there are links to subscribe in the show notes, or you can also go to sharptech.fm. Either option will get you access to a personalized feed that has all the shows we do every week, plus lots more great content from Stratechery and the Stratechery Plus bundle. Check it out, and if you've got feedback, please email us at email@sharptech.fm.