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Hard Fork · · 73 min

Goodbye TikTok, Ni Hao RedNote? + A.I.'s Environmental Impact + Meta's Masculine Energy

Kevin RooseCasey NewtonSasha Luccioni

Podcast
TL;DR
  • The Supreme Court’s decision to uphold PAFACA pushes TikTok toward a US blackout, but its future now depends on political intervention or a sale, not just the court ruling. ByteDance said Americans would lose access on January 19, although the law technically targets distribution through Apple and Google; Kevin Roose sees Donald Trump’s non-enforcement authority or a trusted-buyer deal as the remaining wildcard. A deadline rescue looked unlikely because ByteDance did not seem interested in selling, Beijing did not seem willing to authorize one, and “no one could put together a deal quickly enough.”
  • Elon Musk is the only prospective buyer the hosts treated as meaningfully plausible, precisely because China may retain leverage over him. Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported, based on anonymous sources, that contingency discussions appeared to be happening among Chinese officials rather than TikTok, while Musk wants X to work more like TikTok and Tesla gives Beijing leverage unavailable with a buyer such as Frank McCourt. Casey Newton could see either a real transaction or “a nothing burger,” but called the idea of Musk acquiring a second beloved platform uniquely alarming.
  • The RedNote migration suggests social-media users can abandon platforms without moving to the obvious incumbents. Xiaohongshu, a non-ByteDance Chinese app commonly called RedNote, became the No. 1 free iOS app as self-described TikTok refugees chose an even more explicitly Chinese service, joking, “I would fly to China and hand my Social Security number to Xi Jinping before I would ever use Instagram Reels.” That is a warning against assuming TikTok’s engagement automatically transfers to Meta or Google.
  • Meta and Google nevertheless stand to receive one of their greatest competitive gifts if TikTok disappears. India’s TikTok ban was followed by explosive growth for Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, and Instagram is already on many TikTok users’ phones. Kevin’s countercall is that generational identity includes rejecting older people’s platforms, leaving room for RedNote, a new US app, or protocol-based networks instead.
  • The per-query environmental cost of generative AI is real but obscured by extrapolations that companies can easily dispute. Sasha Luccioni rejected a universal “10 times Google” figure or 500 milliliters of water per conversation, arguing that hardware, latency, model size, and data-center location produce ranges rather than one number. Her consumer rule is task matching: use “the smallest model” that works, avoid LLMs for calculators, consider whether conventional search is sufficient for a simple lookup, and demand that providers “give us the range.”
  • The investment-scale climate issue is aggregate infrastructure demand, not guilt over one useful prompt. US data centers rose from 1.9% of annual electricity consumption in 2018 to 4.4% in 2023 and could reach 6.7%-12% by 2028; Google and Microsoft acknowledged that AI helped knock them off their own sustainability targets. Nuclear agreements, including Microsoft’s Three Mile Island recommissioning and Google’s Kairos partnership, are being presented as responses to the need for continuous power, but transmission and grid fragmentation remain constraints.
  • Efficiency gains may expand AI’s total footprint rather than shrink it, while Meta’s masculinity turn raises a separate governance risk. Luccioni invoked Jevons Paradox: cheaper, more efficient inference encourages companies to put LLMs into more products, potentially overwhelming per-use savings. Meanwhile, Zuckerberg’s call for less “neutered” corporate culture landed alongside the end of Meta’s DEI program and plans to cut 5% of “low performers,” leading Casey to hear a message that “women are [not] welcome at Meta.”
Digest · the substance, structured for research

1. The Supreme Court clears the path to a TikTok shutdown

  • The Court upheld PAFACA and rejected ByteDance’s challenge after surprising observers by taking the case at all. Casey expected more First Amendment deference, but the justices treated divestiture as preserving users’ speech: sell the platform and “all of the speech on the app remains.”

  • ByteDance said it would block US access on January 19, leaving existing apps unable to refresh or populate new content. That goes beyond the statute’s immediate mechanism, which directs Apple and Google to remove TikTok; the hosts saw the shutdown threat as a possible effort to mobilize angry users and create leverage.

  • Kevin still assigned some probability to Donald Trump intervening after TikTok CEO Shou Chew received an inauguration seat among VIPs. A new administration could decline enforcement or bless a trusted-buyer transaction, letting Trump present himself as having “heroically” saved an app important to young Americans.

2. A sale looks unlikely on schedule, with Musk the wild card

  • Frank McCourt proposed buying TikTok even without its recommendation algorithm, financing the deal through private equity and wealthy investors including Kevin O’Leary. MrBeast also said billionaires had contacted him, but both hosts treated that prospect as unserious: “I don’t think we have to think about it that hard.”

  • Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported that senior Chinese officials had discussed Musk as a contingency, according to anonymous sources describing confidential discussions, while TikTok called the story “pure fiction.” Kevin’s reason for taking it seriously was that TikTok might genuinely be outside the conversation: Beijing, whose permission ByteDance would need to divest, could be deciding the asset’s fate.

  • Musk’s strategic fit is legible—he has said X should operate more like TikTok—but so is China’s potential leverage through Tesla’s operations there. Casey called the idea of turning Musk into “kind of a soft Chinese agent” far-fetched, then conceded that Musk is consistently careful and “almost never says anything remotely critical” about Beijing.

  • Kevin’s deadline case had three parts: ByteDance did not appear willing to sell, China did not appear willing to permit a sale, and no buyer could close by January 19. Casey added that TikTok’s reported largest market was Indonesia, so ByteDance might conclude it can “give up on America” and keep making money elsewhere.

3. RedNote converts a ban into a consumer rebellion

  • Xiaohongshu, commonly called RedNote, reached No. 1 among free iOS apps as Americans protested the loss of one Chinese platform by joining another. It is not owned by ByteDance, and its mechanics resemble TikTok’s For You feed, but its pre-migration content was mostly Chinese-language material about China. The app’s literal translation, “Little Red Book,” also evoked the book of Mao quotations.

  • Kevin’s first three recommendations captured the service’s rapid Americanization: a Modern Family clip, a Chinese-language video of a dog having its anal gland expressed, and latte art depicting Luigi Mangione. Casey’s verdict: “In just three videos, you’ve captured a shocking amount of the zeitgeist.”

  • Self-described refugees posted introductions, tried Chinese makeup styles, asked for followers, and admitted, “I can’t read shit on this app.” The result looked less like organized resistance than an improvised cultural exchange between bewildered Americans and established Chinese users.

  • Users turned privacy warnings into protest theater, enthusiastically agreeing to app tracking and promising China all their data. The companion “goodbye to my Chinese spy” meme had Chinese people—possibly from anywhere in the world—pretending to farewell their surveillance targets, sometimes advising them to call their mothers, an irreverent rejection of Washington’s security framing.

4. TikTok’s users may enrich incumbents—or route around them

  • Kevin saw the migration as evidence of platform fragility: TikTok wanted users to fight for it, but many simply packed up and moved. That behavior makes social feeds look “interchangeable and commoditized,” even if creators must bring their audiences elsewhere.

  • Casey’s own position remained conflicted. He accepts “good reasons” to restrict adversarial foreign ownership, yet hates the mechanism and fears its precedent: a future administration could target an American platform, demand new ownership, and cite the Court’s conclusion that divestiture creates no speech problem.

  • The incumbent bull case comes from India, where YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels surged after TikTok’s ban. Removing Gen Z’s defining platform could let Meta extend a portfolio in which Facebook skews older and Instagram serves Millennials, while Google further entrenches itself in short-form video.

  • Kevin’s pushback—worth keeping—is that fleeing to an obscure Chinese-language app reveals “how badly we don’t wanna be on Instagram.” Casey countered that most TikTok users already have Instagram and will likely look there, while also noting growth in the Fediverse and protocol-based products born from frustration with billionaire-controlled apps.

5. AI’s viral climate statistics outrun the available evidence

  • The discussion began with a widely shared post claiming one ChatGPT search uses 10 times a Google search’s energy, while training one model emits as much carbon dioxide as 300 New York–San Francisco round trips and five times a car’s lifetime emissions. The hosts presented these as culturally powerful claims to test, not settled measurements.

  • Luccioni’s first principle was skepticism toward individual culpability: people operate inside systems and sometimes must use resource-intensive technology for work. Her preferred response is to “ask for accountability, ask for transparency” because caring is optional, but people need credible information if they want to act on that concern.

  • The 10-times comparison traces back to an old estimated Google-search footprint and a similarly extrapolated ChatGPT query using assumed hardware and latency. Luccioni argued that the useful output is a range across comparable models; chasing one exact number lets providers dismiss the entire question by saying, “That’s not the exact number.”

  • Smaller AI companies are often more compute-constrained and therefore do more with less—sometimes with only “100 GPUs to work with.” Their motive may be frugality rather than climate protection, but lower computation and energy use also reduce operating costs.

6. Water use is local, variable, and easy to misuse

  • Data centers consume water primarily to cool hardware, with efficiency commonly related to liters per kilowatt-hour. Luccioni described visiting one as “an overwhelming experience”—the noise, heat, and “buzz of electricity”—with some heated water evaporating and the remainder requiring cooling before reuse or being returned to nature.

  • The familiar 500-milliliter-per-conversation claim extrapolates energy measurements from an open-source model into estimated cooling demand. It is “definitely not systematically 500 milliliters,” but usage is non-negligible, and geography matters: a new data center can strain a nearby town already experiencing water shortages.

  • Luccioni’s pet peeve is using ChatGPT as a calculator: it is bad at arithmetic and consumes orders of magnitude more energy than a tool that needs no cooling water. Her own defensible use is asking for playful titles after writing an abstract—a bounded task where the model supplies something she finds genuinely useful.

  • Kevin admitted sending Raycast four or five questions daily, including low-stakes lookups such as Billy Crystal’s age, without caring enough to verify the answer. Casey argued that useful AI is tiny beside driving, flying, or eating meat; Luccioni replied that those are incomparable choices, and users should instead compare two ways of completing the same task.

7. Data-center demand is becoming a grid-level constraint

  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimated that US data centers’ electricity share more than doubled from 1.9% in 2018 to 4.4% in 2023. With AI a major contributor, the report projected 6.7%-12% by 2028—a macro footprint far more consequential than any isolated query.

  • Big technology companies have been major buyers of renewable-energy credits and long-term power-purchase agreements, earning Luccioni’s qualified acknowledgment that they had prepared. Yet Google and Microsoft reported in 2024 that AI growth had pushed them off sustainability targets established around 2018 or 2019; their renewable-energy offsets were no longer covering demand.

  • Nuclear then “entered the chat”: Microsoft moved to recommission Three Mile Island, while Google partnered with Kairos. Data centers require continuous power, while wind and solar vary, so “you can’t just yeet a bunch of solar panels” and expect them to follow an intensive computing load.

  • Generation is only half the bottleneck. A data center is a concentrated “energy sink,” and grid operators must physically deliver additional megawatt-hours to whichever rural site hosts it; America’s patchwork of providers and differently sized grids makes modernization a collection of difficult local transmission problems.

8. Better chips do not guarantee lower total consumption

  • Luccioni rejected the umbrella claim that AI’s climate benefits will outweigh its costs as a false dichotomy. The most energy-intensive systems—large language models—“have yet to prove their utility in fighting climate change,” while models already helping with climate change are not driving most of the sector’s energy and carbon burden.

  • Algorithmic improvements, distillation, and better chips can reduce energy per task, but Jevons Paradox threatens the aggregate result. As nineteenth-century coal use and fuel-efficient driving illustrated, greater efficiency lowers effective cost and encourages more consumption: “We’re gonna put AI into even more things.”

  • The hosts’ macro summary was therefore cautious but clear: data centers strain grids, their number is increasing, and expanding usage may absorb inference savings. Luccioni agreed that the environmental claim must be taken seriously even while individual prompts become cheaper.

9. Transparency is the actionable point of agreement

  • Kevin’s micro synthesis matched Luccioni’s view: individual LLM use may not move the climate needle, but users should choose the smallest adequate model and reserve generative AI for tasks where its advantage matters. People need not “tear their hair out” over a genuinely valuable interaction.

  • Luccioni emphasized consumer power: providers possess average-energy figures or at least defensible ranges, so users should say, “Stop bullshitting us.” Adding AI to familiar footprint comparisons would support informed choices instead of “feeding them shit and keeping them in the dark.”

  • Luccioni also proposed user controls such as a toggle for Google’s generated summaries, letting people retain a core service while choosing a mode coherent with the values or resource constraints they want to optimize.

10. Meta’s masculine makeover masks a governance argument

  • Mark Zuckerberg told Joe Rogan that culture had overcorrected against masculinity and produced a “somewhat more neutered” corporate environment; martial arts helped him recognize the absence. Kevin placed the interview alongside Meta’s efforts to become more palatable to the political right and the incoming Trump administration.

  • Casey answered with satire: make the Like button display a bulging vein and grunt, turn conference rooms into octagons, rename finance “Mixed Martial Accounting,” and give 4chan content moderation. Other proposals included cooling data centers with Mountain Dew Code Red and handing women’s hackathon ideas to male executives—“what kind of energy is more masculine than taking credit for a woman’s idea?”

  • Beneath the jokes, Casey connected Zuckerberg’s rhetoric to killing off Meta’s DEI program and cutting 5% of employees labeled low performers. With Meta employing roughly two men for every woman, Casey’s concern was not masculinity itself but the institutional message: “The message is not, uh, women are welcome at Meta.”

  • Kevin realized that Silicon Valley’s earlier “founder mode” campaign was similarly gendered: its prominent advocates were men asserting that “we’re big boys” entitled to run companies accordingly. He contrasted Zuckerberg’s performance with Jeff Bezos discussing fear and vulnerability at work—emotional openness that looked more secure than changing one’s values “wholesale almost overnight” while controlling platforms used by billions.

Kevin Roose

Hi, Casey.

Casey Newton

Hello, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

How's it going?

Casey Newton

Well, it's going all right. There's a lot of sad news in the world right now. Of course, my thoughts are with everyone affected by the Los Angeles wildfires. Whenever something bad has happened this month, I just think, “I can't believe they're doing this to us during Dry January.” Do you know what I mean? I'm doing Dry January this year.

Kevin Roose

How's it going?

Casey Newton

The unfortunate news is that it's going fantastic. I had assumed that each day I would wake up thinking, “It would be nice to crack open a beer with my friends tonight,” or something. But instead, I'm just like, “I feel so incredibly well-rested.”

Kevin Roose

Aw.

Casey Newton

So that has been an interesting learning.

Kevin Roose

Do you plan to continue it beyond January?

Casey Newton

Well, yeah. I don't think I'm going to go 100% dry, but I've actually been thinking, what if I did a Dry February too?

Kevin Roose

Hmm.

Casey Newton

So I don't know. Changes could be on the horizon.

Kevin Roose

What would happen to your wine tap?

Casey Newton

I might have to replace it with seltzer or something dramatic. It could be crazy.

Kevin Roose

The horror. I'm Kevin Roose, a tech columnist at The New York Times.

Casey Newton

I'm Casey Newton from Platformer.

Kevin Roose

And this is Hard Fork.

Casey Newton

This week, TikTok enters its final hours in the United States, and Americans are flocking to a new Chinese app. Then, Hugging Face's Sasha Luccioni joins us to help us understand the environmental impact of AI. And finally, my ideas to bring more masculine energy to Meta. Time to man up, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Let's go, bro. Well, Casey, the major news in tech this week is that we might actually get a TikTok ban.

Casey Newton

It's true, and I feel like we've probably started at least 7 segments of the show that way over the years, Kevin, but this really is looking like the final, final, final version of “Yes, TikTok could be banned.”

Kevin Roose

Yes. This is TikTok ban V12: final, final. Use this one .docx.

Casey Newton

That's right.

Kevin Roose

And we have talked so much about how we came to this point: the law that Congress passed to ban TikTok.

Casey Newton

PAFTA.

Kevin Roose

PAFACA, technically to force it to sell. That law is supposed to go into effect on January 19, which is this Sunday, the day before Donald Trump's inauguration.

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

As of this taping, it appears that, barring some last-minute intervention, TikTok's time as one of the most popular social media apps in the United States may be coming to an end.

Casey Newton

And you want to talk about a roller coaster. The number of twists and turns this story has taken—from when Donald Trump tried to ban TikTok in his administration, to Joe Biden putting the brakes on that and exploring other alternatives, to that process going off the rails and Congress passing the first piece of tech-related legislation in the past decade to make this thing happen. Then Donald Trump reverses himself and says, “I'm going to save the app,” then that doesn't work, and finally last week it all ends up at the Supreme Court.

So yes, if you wonder why we keep doing this segment over and over again, it's because very few things have changed as much in the past half decade or so as the fate of TikTok.

Kevin Roose

It's truly nuts. When we started recording this segment on Wednesday, the Supreme Court had not made a decision yet on this case, but as of Friday, the justices did issue an opinion upholding the law and denying ByteDance's challenge.

Casey Newton

So, Casey, we're going to talk about all this, but let's start by analyzing a little bit of what happened at the Supreme Court and then talk about where we go from here.

1. TikTok Reaches The Supreme Court

Kevin Roose

Okay. Last Friday, the Supreme Court of the United States heard oral arguments in TikTok v. Garland. Merrick Garland, of course, is the attorney general. This was a lawsuit brought by ByteDance to try to get the Supreme Court to step in at the last minute and overturn this law and basically say ByteDance is allowed to own TikTok in the United States, or at least to delay the ban from going into effect.

Did you actually listen to the oral arguments? I know you're a noted Supreme Court watcher.

Casey Newton

I did not listen to the Supreme Court arguments live, Kevin, but I did catch up on them later. I have to say, I was surprised by the tenor of the discussion.

Kevin Roose

Say more.

Casey Newton

I thought that we would see a bit more deference to the First Amendment than we got. The justices seemed to think that the speech issues involved in the case were not relevant because the way that the law is written says that, as long as ByteDance divests this app, all of the speech on the app remains, right? So they swept that away.

And again, if this is somewhat surprising to talk about, it is only because the Court did not have to hear this case, right? The last time we talked about this potential ban, we said, “Hey, look, the Court could just defer to the lower court, not hear this argument, and just let the law go into effect.” But instead, they did take it up, which made some people think, “Aha, maybe they have something to say about it.”

But I did predict at the time that you just had a lot of justices who wanted to give TikTok the finger, and that does seem like what happened last week.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So let's live in the world right now in which all of this goes as it looks like it's going to go. ByteDance is forced to comply with this law. What happens next?

Casey Newton

ByteDance has said that it will block access to the app for Americans beginning on Sunday. You will open your TikTok app, and it will not refresh. It will not be populated with new content.

Under the law, ByteDance doesn't actually have to do that. The way the law is written, it is intended to force Apple and Google, the 2 big app store providers, to remove TikTok from the app store. But ByteDance got ahead of that and said, “We're just going to shut the thing off,” which some people have speculated is essentially a move to get some leverage because you're going to make so many Americans so mad that maybe that might generate some political goodwill for the company.

Kevin Roose

Right. I'm imagining something like what Uber used to do back in the day when it was fighting with governments, where you'd open your app and you'd see a little pop-up that said, “We don't have Uber in your city. If this makes you mad, here are some numbers to call to contact your local legislators and yell at them about it.”

Casey Newton

Yeah. ByteDance has tried stuff like that in the past in the United States, and it has backfired, but at this point, what does it have to lose?

Kevin Roose

Right. The other possibility for an outcome here, I suppose, is that ByteDance could agree to sell TikTok—that it would divest, as this law was intended to force them to do—and that would be how TikTok survives.

We should say, I think time is running out for any kind of deal like that, but maybe we should run down a few of the possible ways that this could end with a new owner of TikTok in the United States, rather than the app just going dark.

Casey Newton

Let's do it.

Kevin Roose

One group that has lined up to say that they are interested in possibly acquiring TikTok is a group of investors led by the billionaire Frank McCourt, who's the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He sent ByteDance a letter last week expressing his interest in acquiring TikTok.

He said that he would acquire it even without the algorithm that determines what people see on their For You pages, and he said that he would cobble the money together for the sale from private equity funds and other ultra-wealthy investors, including Kevin O'Leary, the investor who goes by Mr. Wonderful on Shark Tank.

Casey Newton

“Sharks, I'm coming before you today because I'd like to buy TikTok from the Chinese Communist Party.”

“That'd be a great episode. I'd watch it.”

Kevin Roose

Yeah, it sounds like this is a hastily arranged sale meant to avert a catastrophic legal outcome, and for that reason, I'm out.

Casey Newton

I'm out.

Kevin Roose

Another potential buyer is the YouTuber celebrity MrBeast, who said that he had billionaires contacting him about buying TikTok after he posted about it on X. I don't know how serious this is, but I think we should just say MrBeast would be a pretty good owner of TikTok.

Casey Newton

I don't know. After I heard what happened on his Beast Games show on Amazon Prime, where many of the contestants were lucky to survive, I'm not sure we want this man running a large tech platform, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Well, I don't think we have to think about it that hard because I don't think it's going to happen.

Casey Newton

Me either.

Kevin Roose

But the real wild card here, the one that I actually take somewhat seriously, is that on Monday, Bloomberg published a story suggesting that the actual preferred acquirer for TikTok might be Elon Musk. The Wall Street Journal shortly afterward put out its own reporting with largely the same information.

According to the Bloomberg article, senior Chinese officials had already begun to debate contingency plans for TikTok as part of an expansive discussion on how to work with Donald Trump's administration, one of which involves Musk. This is according to anonymous sources who asked not to be identified, revealing confidential discussions.

Casey Newton

Yeah, I bet they did.

Kevin Roose

So Casey, what do you think of this theory that Elon Musk could acquire TikTok?

Casey Newton

Every once in a while, something happens in the universe and I think, “Was this done to upset me specifically?” That’s how I felt when I read the story that said that Elon Musk was going to take over a second beloved social platform in the United States and presumably apply his signature brand of content moderation and other fun tricks to the app.

I have to say, Kevin, of everything that has happened in the TikTok story so far, this truly might be the craziest because of the different players here, who we think knows what, and what has been said about it. I can absolutely see a world where this is plausible. I can just as easily see a world where this is a nothing burger, and we’re just going to have to get a little bit more information. But what was your reaction?

Kevin Roose

I was somewhat skeptical when I first saw this, in part because TikTok came out right away and said that this was pure fiction. But it was written in such a way that it felt like the message of the stories that I read was that TikTok may not be involved in these discussions, right?

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

This may be happening at the level of the Chinese government, who is deliberating about what to do, and that’s very telling. Obviously, there’s this theory that I subscribe to, and that I think a lot of people subscribe to, that ByteDance is not really in control of its own destiny here because there’s this government control of

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

all Chinese social media platforms, but especially this one, which seems strategically important to the Chinese government.

Casey Newton

And under Chinese law, ByteDance would need the government’s permission to divest TikTok, so that’s a very real thing.

Kevin Roose

Right. I can also see this making sense for Elon Musk. He’s said before that he wants X to operate more like TikTok. It’s obviously a social network that’s very popular. They’ve obviously cracked the code on algorithmic presentation of content.

I also think that he would be a more palatable American acquirer for the Chinese government than any other potential acquirer. So sketch this case out. What would the Chinese government have if Elon owned TikTok?

I think one thing that we know about Elon Musk is that he does a lot of business in China, right? Tesla has a lot of operations and entanglements in China. Elon Musk has also been very deferential to the Chinese government when it comes to doing things that he needs to do to continue operating his companies in China.

And I think if you’re the Chinese government, looking at which American acquirer would allow us to continue to exert influence over the user base of TikTok in America, I think they have points of leverage on Elon Musk that they do not have over, say, Frank McCourt.

Casey Newton

Right. On one hand, Kevin, it seems a little crazy to me that the Chinese government thinks, essentially, we will turn Elon Musk into a soft Chinese agent to do our bidding in the United States. That seems a little bit far-fetched.

On the other hand, if you look at Musk’s behavior over the past few years, which I think has been really erratic in a lot of ways, he’s always extremely careful about what he says about China. He truly almost never says anything remotely critical of that government.

If you’re the Chinese government, maybe you look at that and appreciate it, and think, “Yeah, sure. Let that guy take it.”

Kevin Roose

Totally. So those are the sort of acquisition scenarios, but I think we should say that I don’t believe any of these are likely to happen by the time this deadline hits. I think that no matter what acquirers might be interested in buying TikTok, A, ByteDance does not seem interested in selling it, B, the Chinese government does not seem interested in letting ByteDance sell it, and C, I don’t think anyone could put together a deal quickly enough to actually get this done by the 19th.

Casey Newton

Yeah, that’s right. Also, I just want to acknowledge the American-centricness of this conversation. TikTok is available in many other markets where it is not banned. And while the United States is a very lucrative market and a great place to run an e-commerce operation the way that TikTok is doing, it is operating in many other countries in the world.

I read this week that its largest market right now is actually in Indonesia. There are more users in Indonesia than in the United States. And so if you’re ByteDance, just from a pure dollars-and-cents perspective, you may look at this and think, “We can actually make more money operating in the countries where we already exist and just sort of give up on America, and we’ll be fine.” So that’s another scenario here.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So now let’s talk about the user response—

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

because this has been truly wild. I know you are not a TikTok addict—

Casey Newton

Despite my best efforts.

Kevin Roose

Yes, you did.

Casey Newton

I tried to get addicted to it on this very show.

Kevin Roose

You did.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

But the people on TikTok are starting to, I would say, panic—

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

over the impending possible loss of their favorite app, their favorite platform. And a lot of content creators on TikTok are starting to try to bring their audiences over to other platforms, like YouTube or Instagram. Some are saying they’re going to use VPNs to get around this ban.

And the most fascinating development to come out of all this, in my opinion, has been that there is now this new trend of TikTok refugees downloading a Chinese social media app called Xiaohongshu, or RedNote.

Casey Newton

Yes. This is truly one of the funniest and most unexpected stories of the young year so far, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Yes. So as of yesterday, at least, when I checked, the Xiaohongshu app was the number 1 free app on the iOS App Store. It has gotten a ton of downloads from people who are saying, basically, “Screw the U.S. government. Screw this TikTok ban. I’m going to protest this by going over to this explicitly Chinese app that does not even have an English name in the App Store.”

Casey Newton

That’s right. Now, obviously, I have installed this app, which I’m going to call RedNote, even though I believe that that’s just an American nickname for it.

Kevin Roose

Yes, the literal translation is “Little Red Book,” which is also not subtle. That is also the name given to the book of quotations from Chairman Mao that was distributed during the Cultural Revolution.

Casey Newton

Right. So tell people what RedNote is, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Okay, so RedNote is essentially a TikTok-like app. It is not owned by ByteDance, but if you open it, you see a feed that looks very much like the For You feed of trending videos. It basically has the same platform mechanics as TikTok. And until this week, most of the content there was people in China speaking Chinese and talking about China.

Casey Newton

Absolutely. I downloaded it, installed it, signed up for an account, and immediately started watching a bunch of videos from refugees, as they’re calling themselves, from TikTok over to RedNote. And they seem like they’re having a great time over there.

But in addition to this migration, Kevin, what was truly so funny was that there were so many posts on X of people bragging about how they were racing to share all of their data with a new Chinese app. They were posting screenshots of themselves with the Apple App Tracking Transparency screen. Apple sends you this big, scary warning: “Hey, are you sure that you want to share your data?” And people are like, “Hell yeah, I want to share it, brother. I’ll give you everything.”

I saw a TikTok from this one girl who was like, “I would fly to China and hand my Social Security number to Xi Jinping before I would ever use Instagram Reels.” That’s where the user base is at, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Right. So I also thought I should probably download and install this Xiaohongshu RedNote app just to see what all the fuss is about. And can I tell you the first 3 videos that I saw—

Casey Newton

Please.

Kevin Roose

on my feed? Number 1 was a clip from Modern Family.

Casey Newton

That is the kind of thing that is the sourdough starter of the modern video-based social network: just clips of Modern Family.

Kevin Roose

Number 2 was a Chinese-language clip of a dog at the vet having its anal gland expressed.

Casey Newton

Oh, perfect. Express yourself.

Kevin Roose

And number 3 was someone making latte art of Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the murder of the UnitedHealthcare CEO.

Casey Newton

So I think it just goes to show you how quickly you can create an American social network. And really, in just 3 videos, you’ve captured a shocking amount of the zeitgeist, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

But I would say after I scrolled more and more, I did start to see these so-called TikTok refugee videos, these Americans who are coming over to RedNote from TikTok and basically trying to make sense of this new thing and participating in almost a cultural exchange.

So why don't we play a couple videos—

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

—that have been making the rounds on RedNote?

Casey Newton

Let's do it.

Speaker 3

Hey, guys. I got sent here from TikTok, and I was hoping that you guys could welcome me. I really like this app, and I love the makeup. I tried to do it today, so thank you.

Speaker 4

I'm not gonna lie to y'all, bruh. I can't read shit on this app. Somebody help me out, bruh. I need some followers, too. So go ahead and hit that follow button, too. I need that. Who else is a TikTok refugee? Y'all let me know in the comments or something.

Kevin Roose

It inserts the little at the end of every video. That's like a watermark.

Casey Newton

Well, that's great, because now I actually feel like I can pronounce it.

Kevin Roose

So Casey, what do you make of the RedNote trend?

Casey Newton

I have to say, this is why I love Americans. The absolute irreverence that they are bringing to this conversation, I find such a refreshing change of pace. So much of the discussion, and certainly I participate in this, is in terms of the rights involved, the equities, speech versus security. What are the national security implications?

And Americans are truly just rolling their eyes out of the back of their heads with this discussion, and they're saying, “Oh, you wanna ban 1 Chinese app? We are going to flock to another one,” and I just think it's amazing.

Kevin Roose

Totally. It's also very interesting to me that the response from American TikTok users is not the response that TikTok had hoped for, which was that Americans get outraged that their favorite social media app is disappearing and band together to storm the streets and try to save TikTok and overturn this law. It's like, no, we're just gonna pack up and move to another platform.

I think it really speaks to the fragility of social media right now and the fact that these platforms are seen as somewhat interchangeable and commoditized. If 1 of them gets banned by the government, you just pack up and move over to another one.

Casey Newton

Yeah, although, of course, there are several American apps that folks could have chosen to move over to, and I think it is extra funny that instead of doing that, Americans were like, “No, find us something that looks exactly like TikTok—but is even more Chinese.”

Kevin Roose

Even more Chinese—

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

—and even less, makes even fewer promises about data privacy.

Casey Newton

Yeah, exactly. Now, some people might ask, “Doesn't PAFACA ban RedNote as well?” My understanding is that, no, PAFACA primarily applies to ByteDance and TikTok. But when it comes to other apps that are owned by a company in a country that the United States considers a foreign adversary, it is up to the president to decide that it represents a national security threat. I imagine it's gonna be some time before RedNote is come to be seen that way.

Kevin Roose

Right. So in addition to packing up and moving over to, other TikTok users are participating in the Chinese spy meme. Have you seen this one?

Casey Newton

I love this meme so much.

Kevin Roose

Okay, explain what's going on.

Casey Newton

People are saying goodbye to their Chinese spy. Of course, this is another irreverent American joke. Basically, they're making fun of the fact that members of Congress are constantly saying that the Chinese government is using TikTok to spy on Americans. The Americans are now just making videos saying, “Hey, I'm so glad we got to spend this time together, my Chinese spy. I will always remember you.”

And then you also have Chinese people—and these could be Chinese people from all over the world—making memes pretending to be the Chinese spies saying, “Hey, I really loved spying on you for all these years. And maybe call your mother a little bit.” “And this message goes out to Laura from New York,” and that sort of thing. So, yeah, “Saying goodbye to my Chinese spy” is one of the best TikTok memes of all time.

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

Coming in hot right at the end.

Kevin Roose

It's so good.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

2. TikTok Faces An Uncertain Future

Kevin Roose

So we've talked a lot in the past about the free speech implications of all this, about whether this is the first of many conflicts between the U.S. and China over emerging platforms. But Casey, where are you right now, days away from the likely end of TikTok as a major presence in U.S. social media? What are you thinking about?

Casey Newton

My feeling has been—and I've kind of gone back and forth on this—but where I netted out was that I do think there are good reasons for the United States to restrict foreign ownership of these kinds of apps, particularly from its adversaries like China. But I really hate the way that they went about it, and I worry about the implications for other speech platforms in the future.

People are saying, “Well, this 1 is really easy because of the Chinese control angle.” But I don't know. If this incoming administration decides it doesn't like a lot of the content on an American-owned app and says, “You know what? We're actually just gonna make you change ownership the same way that we did with ByteDance and TikTok,” and now the Supreme Court has essentially rubber-stamped that argument and said, “Yeah, there are no speech concerns, because as long as you sell the app, all that speech can remain,” you can imagine a lot of really dark outcomes for that kind of thinking.

So I personally, as an older American who tried and failed to get addicted to TikTok, am not going to miss it that much day to day. But TikTok was an engine of culture that we are gonna miss out on in this country. Those folks are gonna have to find a new home. It really sucks for all of those creators. And so, yeah, I think there's gonna be a lot of really sad fallout from this. What do you think, Kevin?

Kevin Roose

I still think there's a chance that Donald Trump decides to intervene and try to save TikTok in the United States. This week, we got some news that Shou Chew, the chief executive of TikTok, is going to be at Trump's inauguration, sitting with a bunch of other VIPs. And some people have interpreted that as Trump saying he supports TikTok and might try to save it.

He obviously made promises about saving TikTok during his campaign. Obviously, a lot's changed since then. But I do think that he understands that a lot of young Americans care deeply about the fate of TikTok, and that maybe he can build some goodwill with those young Americans by stepping in at the last minute to heroically save TikTok.

Now, there are some different ways he could do that. He could instruct the Justice Department in his administration not to enforce the ban on TikTok. He could also try to arrange some kind of deal, potentially selling TikTok to Elon Musk or someone else whom he trusts, and say, “That is enough of a divestment for me. That satisfies the requirements of PAFACA.”

Casey Newton

And he is, after all, Kevin, the author of The Art of the Deal.

Kevin Roose

Exactly. So I do think there's a chance that Donald Trump sort of keeps TikTok around in some form after all. But I'm not sure about that, and I think it's equally plausible that TikTok actually does go away, and that it becomes this kind of free-for-all in the social media world as different companies race to hoover up the users who had previously spent hours a day on TikTok.

Casey Newton

Yeah, and when TikTok was banned in India, we saw what happened there, which was that YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels, which were Google and Meta's answers to TikTok, exploded in popularity. So 1 way that you should be thinking about this is, if this goes into effect, this is truly 1 of the greatest gifts for Google and Meta that you can imagine.

And that is just really interesting, given the strong bipartisan feeling in Congress that Google and Meta specifically ought to be reined in and actually even broken up. I mean, when you think about who is on TikTok, it is the younger generation of Americans. So if Meta and Google can now go out and further entrench themselves into the lives of Generation Z, they're going to have essentially monopolies over those folks, at least in terms of short-form video consumption, for the foreseeable future.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I think that's totally possible. I think there are probably a lot of executives at Meta who are licking their chops about this, who are very excited about the potential because their platforms, Facebook and Instagram, are aging. Facebook is for Boomers and Gen X, and Instagram is for Millennials. Until now, Gen Z has been the TikTok generation, and if Meta can suck up those users, it can extend its dominance for another generation.

But I think that the past week has made me less sure that that's gonna be the outcome here.

Casey Newton

Hmm.

Kevin Roose

Because what we have seen on TikTok as this ban has approached is not people saying, “Oh, everyone move over to Instagram Reels.” It's saying, “Let's move over to this obscure Chinese-language app that no one's ever heard of. That's how badly we don't wanna be on Instagram.”

I think part of the Gen Z identity is about not just embracing TikTok as a platform, but rejecting the platforms that people older than you use. And so I think it's equally plausible that those younger users do not go to Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts, but instead go to some new app that may have most of the features of TikTok, but is different in some way.

Maybe we're finally going to get a new American social media app.

Casey Newton

You know, I would love to believe everything that you're saying, and I think that it absolutely could come to pass. But I also think it's true that most members of Gen Z who have TikTok on their phone probably have Instagram as well, and it's just going to be really hard for them to avoid taking a look at that as they look elsewhere to get their fix.

But at the same time, we're also seeing, separately from all of this, a boom in the Fediverse and people building on protocols. That is rooted in the exact same frustration with these apps that are controlled by billionaires and giant faceless corporations. So I agree with you: There is a lot of frustration among all sorts of Americans on that point.

And so, who knows? Maybe we do get an American-owned alternative to TikTok that is not YouTube or Meta.

Kevin Roose

Well, Casey, for basically the entire time we have been making this podcast, we have gotten emails from listeners who want us to talk about the environmental impact of AI.

Casey Newton

Yeah, this might be the question that we have gotten the most that we have not yet devoted a segment to.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. And I would say my own reluctance to talk about this topic on the show so far has been some insecurity on my part about not being an expert in climate science or the relevant information here, but also just that it is very hard to get good and authoritative data about this subject in particular.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

It is just not something that there is a large body—

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

—of reliable literature about.

Casey Newton

And the companies that have the best data, by and large, are not disclosing any of that data. And so that means that a lot of what we talk about when we talk about the environmental impact of AI is based on estimates that may or may not be close to the mark.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. But I'm sure you have observed, as I have, that the issues around the environment and AI have only gotten more important to people. This really came to a head last week when the wildfires started burning in Los Angeles. I saw so many people posting on social media about what they viewed as a link between AI use and the wildfires, and I'll just read you one meme I saw in my feed that was liked and shared millions of times.

This was posted by a guy named Matt Bernstein, and I'll just read it to you. It said: “One search on ChatGPT uses 10 times the amount of energy as a Google search. Training 1 AI model produces the same amount of carbon dioxide as 300 round-trip flights between New York and San Francisco, and 5 times the lifetime emissions of a car. We don't need AI art, we don't need AI grocery lists, we don't need AI self-driving cars, we don't need ChatGPT or Gemini or Grok or DALL-E or whatever revolutionary technology already exists inside our own human brains. We need the Earth.”

And then below this meme was a picture of a blazing fire. So clearly, this idea has taken root in culture, that there is some kind of link between the disasters that we are seeing in places like Los Angeles and the use of AI for basic, everyday tasks.

Casey Newton

Yeah. And I think today we want to see what we can find out about how true some of the ideas in that post are.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So to shed some light on this very hot topic of AI and energy use—I realize that I just used “light” and “heat.” That was not intentional.

Casey Newton

But we're going to hope we shed more light than heat in this discussion, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Yes. Today we are talking with Dr. Sasha Luccioni. She is an AI researcher and the climate lead at Hugging Face, which is an AI company that offers tools to developers for building AI models. She has been researching and talking about AI's environmental impact for many years, and also developing tools to help developers understand the impacts of their own systems on the environment.

Casey Newton

Yes. And, Kevin, this might be a good time to dust off my shiny new disclosure, because when we talk about AI issues, I will sometimes remind people that my boyfriend is a software engineer at an AI company called Anthropic, and my full ethics disclosure is at platformornot.news/ethics.

Kevin Roose

And my vast disclosure is that I work at The New York Times Company, which is doing open AI and Microsoft over issues of copyright violations.

Casey Newton

Perfect. All right. Let's bring in Sasha Luccioni. Sasha Luccioni, welcome to Hard Fork.

Sasha Luccioni

Thanks for having me.

Kevin Roose

So I'm very excited to have this conversation. This is one we've been looking forward to for a while and are frankly overdue in having. I want to start by reading you an email that we recently got from a listener.

This comes from a listener named T. Morris, and it says the following: “As a tech content marketer, I feel increasingly conflicted about using AI. On the one hand, it's been an amazing writing partner for big tasks like brainstorming and editing tech articles and smaller copywriting tasks like drafting social media posts. On the other hand, I see climate disasters like the North Carolina floods and LA fires linked with the amount of water and natural resources it takes to sustain AI infrastructure, and feel myself rationing my AI use, questioning whether the time saved is worth the environmental trade-offs. How do I navigate this new world where AI is everywhere while staying true to my environmental values?”

So, Sasha, we'll dive into some of the specifics in just a minute, but I want to start with this question from our listener. What advice would you give T. Morris?

Sasha Luccioni

I'm generally very skeptical of individual culpability when it comes to the climate crisis. Yes, of course we all contribute, but I think that we're all also part of systems, and we have professions that require usage of technologies. Some people drive for a living, and we can't spend our time feeling bad.

I'm much more a fan of requiring accountability from companies and requiring transparency, because I think that, especially around climate change, but also in a lot of aspects of society, we just don't have the numbers to make informed decisions. That doesn't mean you need to care, but you should have the information necessary for caring.

So I'm more about asking for accountability and asking for transparency when using these technologies instead of psyching yourself out about them.

Kevin Roose

Got it.

Casey Newton

Hmm.

3. AI Energy And Water Use

Kevin Roose

So I thought one way to frame this discussion would be to split it into essentially 2 parts: the micro and the macro. Micro being this question of what do we know about the environmental impact of AI at the level of the individual user—the individual question that you might ask to ChatGPT or Gemini or Claude and getting a response to that? And then macro being this larger question of what is the AI sector's energy footprint more broadly?

What do we know about where all the energy is coming from to run these very powerful models, and what can we do as a society and as big corporations to position ourselves better for the future? With your permission, Sasha, I want to start with the micro.

So one of the statistics that people will often throw out when talking about the energy demands of AI is this figure that a ChatGPT query or something like it costs somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 times more energy than a traditional web query on something like Google. Now, I asked Google about this figure, and they wouldn't say exactly how much energy it takes to query Gemini versus to run a traditional web search, but they did say that those numbers are much larger than what they've seen internally.

But, Sasha, where did that figure come from, and what do we know about how accurate it is?

Sasha Luccioni

I think the initial Google search query figure is actually pretty old. It was part of a study about greening the web, and they made an estimate.

And once again, they didn't really have the numbers, but they tried to extrapolate. And then for ChatGPT, it was similar: assuming that somebody is querying a model that's running on this type of hardware, and assuming that the latency is X and blah, blah, blah, they extrapolated that. There are other models that do similar things, so even if you don't know exactly how much energy ChatGPT uses, you inherently have other models that will do similar tasks, and so you can get a range. I think that range is more interesting than trying to chase down the exact number and compare the two.

Also, it's probably not a single number anyway, and so that's why it's so hard to pin down this number. That's why it will always be possible for them to say, “Oh, no, that's not the number. That's not the exact number.”

Kevin Roose

Right. And I think your point earlier that one of the things we need on this subject is a lot more transparency is really well taken. I know that Google has folks who work on climate issues, but I'm curious: As you look across the industry, maybe at some of the newer, smaller AI labs or just companies other than Google, do you get the sense that people are paying attention to this? Are they taking these sorts of measurements? Do they even have a sense of the per-query energy usage of one of their products?

Sasha Luccioni

Definitely, because unlike Google, Microsoft, or any of the big tech companies, smaller companies are usually a lot more compute-constrained, so they're doing more with less because they have to. They don't always come at it from a sustainability perspective. They're not like, “Oh, yeah, we want to protect the planet.” But there is a part of that. It's like frugality: We want to be more efficient because we only have 100 GPUs to work with.

Kevin Roose

Right. And this seems like maybe one positive thing that I'm hearing so far: It sounds like the incentives for all of these companies are to get the amount of compute and energy they're using down as quickly as they can over time.

Casey Newton

Another claim that you often hear from people who are worried about the environmental impacts of using AI on a micro or personal level is about water use. There's this statistic—I'm sure you've seen it around—that using an LLM is like pouring out a bottle of water, or half a liter of water. I've seen that going around. Where did that figure come from, and why do these AI models need water? Is that statistic true?

Sasha Luccioni

That paper is, once again, an extrapolation. It takes some of the work that I did about an open-source model, where we measured how many kilowatt-hours of energy were being used to query it. Essentially, what happens in data centers is that they have an amount—like a liter of water per kilowatt-hour of energy. I mean, it's a water-efficiency measurement. They call it water-use efficiency. And essentially, depending on where your data center—

Kevin Roose

Because—sorry, why do they need water in the data centers?

Sasha Luccioni

Yeah, mostly for cooling. This hardware heats up. I don't know if you've ever visited a data center. If you can, I highly recommend it. It is an overwhelming experience: the noise, the heat, and just the general buzz of electricity. It's pretty overwhelming.

Anyway, you need a lot of cooling, and essentially, that's usually done with water cooling. You pump in cool water, and there are a bunch of pipes. It goes through all of the hardware, and then either a part of it evaporates completely, or a part of it has to be cooled down before being reused or put back into nature or whatnot. That whole process is hugely water-consumptive, and of course not all the water evaporates, but a fair amount of it does just because the hardware heats up so much.

But once again, I go back and forth on this a lot—whether putting out statistics like this that are based on estimates is useful for the conversation. On one hand, it's really easy for the companies to say, “No, you guys are tripping. That's not at all the true number,” which then kind of cuts the conversation. On the other hand, they do become urban legends, and now I hear this 500-milliliter-per-conversation number a lot. It's like, well, actually, it will depend on so many different things.

So it's definitely not systematically 500 milliliters, but it is a non-negligible amount of water. Depending on where the data center is located, that can become an issue. We're seeing places where data centers have put a strain on the towns around them that have water shortages because the water is being pumped into a new data center that has been powered up.

Kevin Roose

So, you said earlier, understandably, that you're not a huge fan of thinking about these issues at the individual level. I'm still curious: When you are considering your own personal use of AI, where does water usage fit into things? Is that, for you, a reason to send fewer queries to ChatGPT or an equivalent?

Sasha Luccioni

In general, I don't use AI that often—generative AI, that is. The one use case that I found really useful in my life is when I write an article or a research paper, I put in the abstract and get a fun title. I'm so bad at generating fun titles, but ChatGPT is really good, and it can come up with puns and stuff like that.

What really kills me is people who switch to generative AI for things that don't really need it. My pet peeve example is calculators. People use ChatGPT as a calculator now, and that's really terrible. You really don't need it. Not only is it bad at arithmetic—it's literally not made to do math—but it's also orders of magnitude more energy and a crazy amount of water for something that doesn't need water.

Kevin Roose

Well, I have to say, I'm going to admit something. I've talked before on the show about how I use this app called Raycast, which is plugged into OpenAI's model, and I can just summon it on my keyboard with Command + Space. I probably ask it 4 or 5 questions a day, and I am definitely using it for things I can Google. One of my toxic traits is that I'm curious how old people are, so sometimes I'll just be like, “How old is Billy Crystal?” or whatever, and it—

Sasha Luccioni

And do you check the answers to see whether they're accurate?

Kevin Roose

It's not that I check the answers. It's that I don't really care that much. So when the LLM says that Billy Crystal is, I don't know, 70 or whatever he is, I'm like, “Yeah, that's the right ballpark,” and then I move on. I'm realizing that I sound very silly as I'm saying this, but I'm saying it because I suspect other people may be doing the same thing. I think there is a case that maybe I should actually Google that, in part for environmental reasons.

Casey Newton

But I want to embody the other side of this, because what I'm hearing from you is that generative AI is not useful enough in many cases to justify the energy costs of engaging with an LLM. I'm a person who uses AI every day, and I generally find it quite useful in my life. I use it to accomplish a lot of tasks that I could not use equivalent tools for. I don't just run “How old is Billy Crystal?” searches over and over again.

Kevin Roose

To be clear, I only ran it once.

Casey Newton

And I would say that my own usage of this is mostly to do new things that I couldn't do before. I think if people don't find generative AI useful, they shouldn't use it. But if people do find it useful but are worried about the environmental cost, I'm just not entirely convinced that we're thinking about the costs of AI in the sense of energy at the right scale.

I recently was reading a Substack post by a guy named Andy Masley where he basically broke down the best data and estimates we have about the environmental costs of using AI. He compared it to some other activities, like sending emails, streaming a video on Netflix, or driving a car for a very short distance. Basically, what he found is that compared to all these other activities, the energy required to generate an answer on ChatGPT or a similar system is infinitesimally small. If we are worried about our own personal environmental footprint, we could do much more to help the environment by cutting out meat from our diets or taking fewer trips in cars or on airplanes.

Basically, the argument that he made, which I'm tempted by, is that all of this sort of talk about personal responsibility is just neglecting to look at AI use in the context of all the other things that we do in our lives that require energy. I'm wondering, Sasha, what you make of that argument.

Sasha Luccioni

I mean, it kind of builds upon what I said at the beginning, but in general, when you talk to people around the issue of climate change and mitigation, we're bound by the structures in which we operate and live and the constraints that we have.

Of course, I’m not going to be like, “Oh yeah, don’t take that plane to take a well-deserved vacation and spend your time worrying about climate change,” because that’s not a productive state of mind. But on the other hand, we can make decisions with the environment in mind. For example, nowadays a lot of people have ChatGPT open as the de facto source of information on the internet, and I do think that, yes, of course, little by little, the individual energy consumption of each query is not that much.

But if we start using it literally as our rubber duck, our sounding board, and our companion, and then people also use ChatGPT to build tools, right? Nowadays, people are building therapist and whatnot companions using ChatGPT. And then that incrementally becomes a big deal. Personally, I try to focus on a specific task you want to do—for example, searching the internet or answering a question—and then comparing option A and option B and asking what the difference is. Then it’s up to you to decide whether that difference is worth it based on the advantage that the technology gives you.

But I don’t think it makes sense to compare meat and email or Netflix and taking your car, because I feel like they’re incomparable actions.

Kevin Roose

Right. People aren’t choosing between, “Well, should I drive to work today or should I ask ChatGPT—

Sasha Luccioni

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

...a question?

Sasha Luccioni

Exactly. So I understand where he’s coming from in his argument, but I don’t feel that that helps us make choices any better. It makes us feel bad all around.

Kevin Roose

So, Sasha, can I try to summarize what I’m hearing from you on the point of individual use, the sort of micro question about the environmental impact of AI? What I’m hearing you say, I believe, is that the individual costs of using LLMs may not move the needle on climate one way or the other, but that people should be conscious of what they are using AI for and maybe use the smallest model that will allow them to get the task done that they are looking to do. Maybe we shouldn’t be tearing our hair out over people using ChatGPT if they’re using it to do stuff that is genuinely useful to them.

Sasha Luccioni

Exactly.

Kevin Roose

Is that an accurate reflection of your sentiment?

Sasha Luccioni

It’s a great reflection, and I think that often we forget our power as consumers and users of technology. I think that putting pressure on companies and being like, “Hey, we care. We want this number. Stop bullshitting us. You have the number somewhere of the average energy.” Even if it’s not a single number, if it’s a range, give us the range, and then we’ll make our informed decisions.

People are more and more aware of relative comparisons, like a mile driven in a car or a steak or whatever. We need to add, even if it’s a range, AI to those options that people have so that they can actually make informed decisions. We should stop just feeding them shit and keeping them in the dark.

4. AI Strains The Power Grid

Kevin Roose

Right. Okay. So that is the sort of micro picture of the AI energy story. Now let’s talk about the macro.

There was recently a report, just last month, from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory about the power currently needed to run the data centers in this country and the power that will soon be needed as the AI boom sparks demand for more and more of these data centers. This report said that between 2018 and 2023, the power to run data centers around the U.S. went from 1.9% of total annual electricity consumption to 4.4%—more than double. The report estimated that the energy demands of data centers, of which AI is a major part, will continue to increase over the next few years and could, by 2028, make up between 6.7% and 12% of total U.S. electricity consumption.

So, Sasha, let’s zoom out a little bit and talk about the energy needs of the AI industry as a whole. Where are we? Do these companies know where they are going to get all this energy to build these incredibly powerful AI models?

Sasha Luccioni

Yes and no. We currently have a certain infrastructure, but the problem is that the growth of the infrastructure is kicking into high gear. What’s interesting is that the big tech companies are the largest purchasers of renewable energy credits, which are offsets for energy, and they also make a lot of power purchase agreements, which are essentially ways of promising to buy energy, especially renewable energy, into the future. So they’ve been—I’ll give them that—they’ve actually been on top of things.

But this past year, both Google and Microsoft put out reports saying that they’re not meeting their own sustainability targets. They dropped the ball on their own energy and carbon goals because of AI, because they weren’t ready themselves for the amount of energy that they would need or where that energy was coming from. The renewable energy offsetting things weren’t covering it.

I think the latest and greatest trend in terms of energy generation has been nuclear. All the big tech companies have signed nuclear agreements, like power purchase agreements, in the last couple of months, and the general messaging is that this is going to solve the issue in terms of energy demand growth.

Kevin Roose

And when Microsoft and Google said, “Hey, we’re not going to make our targets,” was it nuclear that they were pointing to? Did they say, “Don’t worry, we’re going to fix this. We have a new strategy”? Or did they say, “We might just never hit these targets because our values have changed”?

Sasha Luccioni

They were saying, “These were very ambitious targets that we set back in 2018 or 2019, and technology moves at such a fast pace.” But no, nuclear actually entered the chat relatively recently. I think the reports came out around May of last year, 2024, and then, a couple of months later, Microsoft announced that it was recommissioning Three Mile Island.

Google signed a partnership with—I don’t remember which nuclear generator.

Kevin Roose

Kairos Power. Yeah, I believe that was the one—

Sasha Luccioni

Yeah, exactly. And so they’re saying that this is the new direction we’re going in, because, sadly, building out renewable energy infrastructure does take time.

Also, the problem with data centers and renewable energy is that data centers need energy 24/7, and the cycles aren’t necessarily as predictable as heating and cooling, for example. When the temperature drops, people will turn on their heating systems. You have these models that have worked pretty well historically, but for data centers they don’t work, and renewable energy tends to vary depending on whether there’s wind or sun.

So there are a lot of challenges. You can’t just yeet a bunch of solar panels and expect them to respond to the demand of your data center. It’s much more complicated, and that’s why nuclear has emerged as a potential solution.

Kevin Roose

So my understanding, Sasha, is that a lot of the big AI companies are now just racing to get as much energy capacity as they can, and that one of the worries is that they are tapping out the infrastructure for clean or renewable energy. They’re starting to go into these dirtier forms of energy that we know have these harmful environmental costs because there just isn’t enough renewable energy, and—

Sasha Luccioni

Right.

Kevin Roose

...and adding more takes time, as you said.

Sasha Luccioni

Yeah. Also, the thing with data centers is that they’re a very concentrated, very intense energy sink. I was talking to some energy-grid operators in Paris, and they were saying that even if we did have the capacity—the actual megawatt-hours—distributing it in a way that all of that extra capacity goes toward the data center in whatever rural area they build it in is a challenge in itself.

Kevin Roose

Hmm. One argument—I was talking with someone the other day who works at an AI company—was that we shouldn’t worry so much about the energy costs associated with AI because our electrical grid in America has been in desperate need of modernization. We have this creaky, old electrical grid that has not been growing nearly as quickly as it needs to, and basically, because AI now exists and demands all of this energy, we’re starting to do things that we probably should have done a long time ago, as far as investing in new sources of energy, in these mini nuclear reactors, and in trying to scale up things like solar and wind power.

So, yes, these models are demanding a lot of energy, but they’re forcing us to modernize our infrastructure and our energy grid in ways that will benefit us as a country down the line. What do you make of that argument?

Sasha Luccioni

Well, what’s interesting about the United States, particularly, is that it’s not a single energy grid. There are a lot of energy providers in the States. There’s a really nifty website called Electricity Map, and they map out electricity.

And what’s interesting, when you zoom in on the US, it’s like a patchwork. There are some states that have 12 different grids, and then there are some where, actually, multiple states have a single grid. What’s interesting is that, for example, Canada has 1 per province. In Europe, it might be 1 per country; France has a single one.

So they’re probably right to an extent, but modernizing the US energy system—the network of grids—is actually really difficult because it’s so heterogeneous. Even if you update one part of the grid, that doesn’t mean the whole system is modernized. For example, smaller energy grids don’t have that much capacity, and the bigger ones will take time to update. So I think, yes, in theory, it would be good to overhaul the US energy grid, but in practice, it’s a lot of small problems that are harder to solve.

Kevin Roose

One other thing I’ve heard from people who work in the AI industry or who are not as worried about the environmental impact of AI is that, yes, this stuff costs energy, yes, we need to find new sources of energy, but ultimately AI is going to be more of a help in addressing the climate crisis than it will hurt. What do you make of that argument? Is that just self-serving?

Sasha Luccioni

I don’t think it’s self-serving, but I think it’s kind of a false dichotomy because the AI systems that are the most energy-intensive, like large language models, are the ones that have yet to prove their utility in fighting climate change. I think the issue here is that we’re using these big models for tasks that are not helping the fight against climate change, and compared to that, the models that are helping with climate change aren’t the ones that are the issue. The problem with AI being an umbrella term kind of makes it very, very hard to have this discussion, but essentially, large language models are not solving the climate crisis anytime soon, and the models that are helping are not the ones that are contributing the most to the energy and carbon issues that we’re seeing.

Kevin Roose

Hmm. All right, one more argument that I want to have you address, which is about the efficiency of AI over time. We’ve heard from companies that they are making their models much more efficient because they are creating these algorithmic breakthroughs, doing things like model distillation. The chips themselves are also becoming much more energy-efficient. And so there’s this argument that you’ll hear from folks in the industry that actually we’re running on outdated information when we say that AI is a risk to the climate because the energy needs are scaling down over time per use, and that actually we’re just worried because our information isn’t up to date. So do you think about efficiency in those terms, or how should we think about that?

Sasha Luccioni

So efficiency is interesting because I think that a lot of what people talk about when they talk about technological progress is some form of efficiency. It’s: We’re using less time, we’re using less fuel, we’re using less energy, for example. And I think in AI we are seeing this. But what’s interesting—I’ve been really going down the rabbit hole in terms of macroeconomic literature on this—is that there’s this really interesting paradox that’s called Jevons paradox. What Jevons observed in the 19th century was that we’re actually still using more and more coal despite using it more efficiently.

Kevin Roose

Mm-hmm.

Sasha Luccioni

And so this kind of phenomenon has been observed a lot with different kinds of efficiency gains, whether it be time or, for example, cars. Now that we can drive farther on the same amount of fuel, we’ll actually go to more places. And so I think what we’re seeing a lot in AI is this kind of rebound effect: We can do more AI for the same amount of compute money, but that means we’re going to do even more. We’re going to put AI into even more things, and so those efficiency gains are kind of lost because now we’re using LLMs for things that we didn’t use LLMs for before.

Kevin Roose

Hmm. Casey, do you want to try repeating back what we’ve heard about the macro picture when it comes to AI and energy?

Casey Newton

Well, the macro picture of AI and energy is that the construction of data centers does actually put a strain on the grid. We’re seeing many more of them. Even as individual usage of AI gets more efficient, it seems likely that we’ll just use a lot more of it. So this is one where it seems like we do have to watch and take the environmental claim seriously. That’s what I feel like I heard. Does that sound right?

Sasha Luccioni

Yes, it does. I think you summed it up really well.

Kevin Roose

Got it. And I think what we can agree on, whether or not we think that the individual or the macro use of AI across the economy is dangerous for the environment, is that I think AI companies should be required to disclose a lot more—

Casey Newton

Yes.

Kevin Roose

data about the energy use of their models. It just seems like the data we have, a lot of it is based on estimates from the outside, a lot of it is outdated, a lot of it has gone through this game of telephone where all of a sudden every time people use ChatGPT, they think they’re burning down a forest. And it seems like this could all be solved by just having much better and more transparent data from the AI companies themselves about how much energy they’re using.

Sasha Luccioni

Agreed. Giving users more agency when it comes to generative AI—even having a toggle for AI-generated summaries in Google—would give people a little bit more control over how they use it. We don’t want to stop using Google—most people don’t—so let us use Google in a way that is coherent with our values or the things that we want to optimize for.

Kevin Roose

Well, Sasha, thank you so much for enlightening us on this subject. It is one I imagine we will return to, because I don’t think this debate is going away anytime soon. But I really appreciate your expertise and your time.

Sasha Luccioni

Thank you for the great questions.

5. Meta Embraces Masculine Energy

Casey Newton

Well, Kevin, did you see the Mark Zuckerberg interview with Joe Rogan?

Kevin Roose

I did, and I assume that’s why we’re sitting here in our oversized, baggy T-shirts and our gold chains.

Casey Newton

That’s right. Thank you for agreeing to this costume change. Listeners should know that we are wearing very boxy black T-shirts right now, and gold chains to try to get us into the mindset of what I’m hoping we can do today.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Shall we pop a Zyn too?

Casey Newton

If you have any on you, go for it.

Kevin Roose

I’ve got 4. I’ve got upper deckies here, but if you want one, I’m happy to provide.

Casey Newton

Upper deckies?

Kevin Roose

You never heard of upper deckies?

Casey Newton

No.

Kevin Roose

Dog.

Casey Newton

What’s an upper deckie?

Kevin Roose

Let me teach you something about straight culture.

Casey Newton

Please do.

Kevin Roose

You’re always enlightening me—

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

—about gay culture.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

Upper deckies are when you put a ZYN nicotine pouch in your upper lip.

Casey Newton

That is perfect, Kevin. That is exactly the right spirit that I want to take into this segment. So you watched the Mark Zuckerberg interview on Joe Rogan.

Kevin Roose

I did.

Casey Newton

And what did you think?

Kevin Roose

I thought it was very long. That was my main thing: This meeting could’ve been an email.

Casey Newton

Well, I think that’s a fair point, Kevin, but to me, I was so pleased to hear it because finally someone in Silicon Valley was willing to say what we’ve all been thinking for years now, which is that this town does not have enough masculine energy. You know what I mean?

Kevin Roose

Kevin—

Casey Newton

Yes.

Kevin Roose

Sometimes I will visit a company in Silicon Valley and see as many as 1 female executive. Finally, people like Mark Zuckerberg are starting to ask, “When did things get this out of control?” And I know you’ve thought the same thing. You’ve said that to me off mic.

Casey Newton

I don’t think I have, but go on. Now, some people get confused because the most recent time that Meta shared numbers, it had about 2 men at the company for every 1 woman. But this just highlights how powerful feminine energy is, Kevin. What Zuckerberg is saying is that to counteract the presence of even 1 woman at Meta, at least 3 men are needed to restore balance. Now, to give listeners a bit more of a sense of what we’re talking about, I think we should play Mark Zuckerberg talking about masculine energy on The Joe Rogan Experience.

Kevin Roose

Let’s do it.

Speaker 9

I just think we swung culturally to that part of the spectrum, where it’s all, “Okay, masculinity is toxic. We have to get rid of it completely.” No. Both of these things are good, right? You want feminine energy. You want masculine energy. You’re gonna have parts of society that have more of 1 or the other. I think that’s all good. But I do think the corporate culture had swung towards being this somewhat more neutered thing. And I didn’t really feel that until I got involved in martial arts, which I think is still a much more masculine culture.

Casey Newton

There’s something about being punched in the face that makes you think, “My culture has been neutered.” You know what I mean?

Kevin Roose

Yes. I did hear this part of the interview. This went viral. Everyone on my feeds has been talking about these comments that Mark Zuckerberg made about masculine energy being missing from many of our greatest corporations. And this is sort of in the context of all the moves that he’s been making to try to make Meta more palatable to people on the right, including the incoming Trump administration. This was him saying to Joe Rogan, in a way that people mercilessly mocked, “The real problem in corporate America is that we’ve been letting this feminine energy take over, and we need to assert masculine energy, and that’s our path back to greatness.”

Casey Newton

Exactly, Kevin. And so, as we so often try to do on this show, I’ve spent all week thinking, how can we be part of the solution here? I have come up with a list of ideas that we can bring to the Meta corporation to help them restore masculine energy to Meta.

Kevin Roose

Oh, boy.

Casey Newton

We’re going to give Meta a masculine makeover, and I would love to share some of the ideas that I have with you right now.

Kevin Roose

Please.

Casey Newton

Number 1: modify the Facebook Like button to display a bulging vein reflecting long hours spent in the gym. What do you think?

Kevin Roose

I like it.

Casey Newton

Something else: whenever you tap it, your phone grunts. Number 2: let’s just say the poke is gonna work a little differently now, but I can’t say how on this podcast. Number 3: transform every conference room at Meta into an octagon, Kevin.

Kevin Roose

Mm.

Casey Newton

Remind workers at every meeting that work is a combat zone and Mark Zuckerberg can strike at any time.

Kevin Roose

I like this.

Casey Newton

We’re also changing the name of the finance department to MMA: Mixed Martial Accounting.

Kevin Roose

Mm.

Casey Newton

Number 4: Meta acquires 4chan. It’s the largest repository of disturbed 17-year-olds in the world, Kevin, and they could be part of the solution too. The obvious thing to do would be to let them run the human resources department, but I’m proposing that Meta goes further and puts them in charge of content moderation.

Kevin Roose

Mm.

Casey Newton

That’d be some masculine energy.

Kevin Roose

It sure would.

Casey Newton

Number 5: no more of these beta team-building activities like making pottery and volunteering, Kevin. Instead, we’re going on a wild boar hunt.

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

As Mark shared on The Joe Rogan Experience, one of the greatest challenges in his life is that his ranch in Kauai is absolutely beset by an invasive species of wild boars. And for years now, Zuckerberg has been spending his downtime hunting them with bow and arrows. In fact, do we have a clip of that?

Speaker 9

Well, then my favorite is bow and arrow. I think that feels like the most sporting version of it, if you wanna put it that way. If you’re just trying to get meat, it’s not the most effective. The most effective is certainly a rifle.

Casey Newton

If you work at Meta, I think this should be your problem too. Whether you wanna use a bow and arrow or a rifle, report to the Zuckerberg ranch for further instructions.

Kevin Roose

Now, do we know what happens if you are a Meta employee and you actually bring a hunting bow into the office?

Casey Newton

That’s actually one of the main ways to get promoted there. Number 6: replace the water in Meta’s data centers with Mountain Dew Code Red.

Kevin Roose

Oh, I like this one.

Casey Newton

Me too.

Number 7: in the 2019 film Joker, Kevin, Joaquin Phoenix’s character does a famous dance down a set of stairs to signify that he is fully transformed into the Joker. My proposal: we bring those steps to the Meta campus in Menlo Park. You have a meeting with Mark Zuckerberg? Guess what, Kevin? You have to walk up the Joker steps because Mark is the Joker now.

Kevin Roose

I like that.

Casey Newton

Number 8: in what many people perceived as a cruel and pointless attack on trans people, Meta instructed managers to remove tampons from the male restrooms at their campuses. But this is a half measure, Kevin, because let’s face it, real men don’t use toilet paper.

Kevin Roose

True.

Casey Newton

Get rid of it.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Are we doing bidets, or are we just going raw dog?

Casey Newton

Bidets? Are you kidding me? There will not be one French thing in those restrooms as long as I’m suggesting ideas.

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Casey Newton

Number 9: employees will now get 1 extra day off a year to do 1 of the following 3 activities: mow the lawn, watch the game, or hang with the boys. Which one of those would you pick, Kevin?

Kevin Roose

Hang with the boys, for sure.

Casey Newton

Do you even have any boys?

Kevin Roose

Come on. I’ve got you.

Casey Newton

That’s true. We can hang together on our day off. Now, I have 1 last suggestion to bring up the masculine energy at Meta, Kevin, and it goes like this: we’re gonna have a hackathon for women. Doesn’t that sound nice?

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

Yeah. And at the end, we’re gonna take all the best ideas from their hackathon and give them to Meta’s male executives, because what kind of energy is more masculine than taking credit for a woman’s idea? Anyway, just my thoughts, Kevin. Do you have any ideas as well?

Kevin Roose

No, I think that basically covers it. I think with these changes, the Meta corporation will be fully—what’s the opposite of emasculated?

Casey Newton

It will be enmanulated.

Kevin Roose

Enmanulated. And we will have a glorious future run by men. It used to be a time at Meta when people like Sheryl Sandberg had a seat at the table and famously told women there to lean in. What’s happening with that now?

Casey Newton

I’m being given word that they’re being asked to lean out, actually. Maybe all the way out. In fact, Mark Zuckerberg announced this week that he was gonna cut 5% of what he called the low performers at the company, and that is the ultimate lean-out: a layoff.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I did see some Meta employees posting that the way they were gonna avoid getting laid off is by getting extremely jacked. So that’s an idea there.

Casey Newton

Ooh.

I mean, that is now something that we can respect in culture: we can say, “If you have visible muscles, maybe you belong around here.”

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Casey, I have to ask, since we are in the Zuckerberg uniform now, minus the $900,000 watch. This is just my Apple Watch. How do you feel? Do you feel more masculine sitting in the studio today?

Casey Newton

I am having an almost uncontrollable desire to just wrestle you to the ground and force you to submit. But how are you feeling?

Kevin Roose

I’m feeling like I’m a little insecure, honestly.

Casey Newton

Really?

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

Why?

Kevin Roose

Because I don’t think I can pull this off.

Casey Newton

You can absolutely pull it off. Everyone looks good in a black T-shirt and a gold chain.

Kevin Roose

Yeah?

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

Including me.

Casey Newton

Yes.

Kevin Roose

I’m not a big man-jewelry guy.

Casey Newton

You know what? I haven’t been either, but then for our anniversary, my boyfriend and I got little chains.

Kevin Roose

Yeah?

Casey Newton

Isn’t that so cute?

Kevin Roose

That is cute.

Casey Newton

Yeah, and manly in a different way. In a gay, manly way. You start out talking about something super manly, but then you get into it at any degree of detail and you realize, no, it’s masculine and feminine energy together in the same place.

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

Isn’t that beautiful?

Kevin Roose

Now, Casey, the 1 serious thing that I do wanna say about this is that it clicked for me when I heard Mark Zuckerberg on Joe Rogan talking about masculinity and masculine energy: this is what founder mode was.

Casey Newton

Yes.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, you can look back at our shows that we did about founder mode last year and, to my recollection, not one of the people in Silicon Valley calling for the return of founder mode was a woman. And I believe that that was an elaborate way of saying, “We’re big boys, and we would like to run our companies like big boys.”

Casey Newton

Yeah, and I mean, look, I don’t want to completely dismiss the idea that people should get in touch with masculine energy. That is a fine thing to do, I think, no matter who you are. I get really concerned when somebody who employs tens of thousands of people starts talking about this in the context of corporate culture and amid a series of initiatives that includes killing off the DEI program and firing your “low performers.” A clear message is being sent, and the message is not, “Women are welcome at Meta.”

Kevin Roose

One thing that also struck me as I was listening to Mark Zuckerberg is that it also reminded me of a conversation that Jeff Bezos had at the DealBook conference just a few weeks ago that I heard, where I was actually surprised. You know, Jeff Bezos was sort of the original tech founder who got super masculine, right? He turned from this scrawny nerd into this jacked dude who lifts weights and has these bulging muscles. And he embraced a masculine aesthetic, I think, earlier than a lot of other tech executives.

But I was also struck by his comments at DealBook, where he basically talked about his feelings a lot and how he had started becoming more emotionally open at work about feeling scared or feeling vulnerable. And it just really struck me that that is a person who is actually comfortable with masculinity—when you can talk about emotions in the context of a business meeting, and you can talk about them onstage at a business conference.

This sort of LARPing that Mark Zuckerberg is doing, where he is pretending to be super masculine all of a sudden and enjoy bow hunting and hanging out with the bros, just feels very insecure to me. It feels very much like this is a person who has not yet actually become at peace with his own self.

Casey Newton

Yeah, I think that there is something to that. I can’t even make a joke about that because it’s actually kind of terrifying to be 40 and still be trying to work out, “What are my values? And could I just replace them wholesale almost overnight with a different set?” That’s kind of a scary proposition for somebody who runs a set of platforms used by billions of people.

Kevin Roose

Yes, and I hope that whatever Mark Zuckerberg is looking for, he finds it, and I hope that it does not come at the expense of a lot of boars who might needlessly die.

Casey Newton

What if we had a third male co-host?

Kevin Roose

Oh, no.

Goodbye TikTok, Ni Hao RedNote? + A.I.'s Environmental Impact + Meta's Masculine Energy | BidClub