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The a16z Show · · 42 min

How Bots, Deepfakes and AI Agents Are Forcing a New Internet Identity Layer | Alex Blania on a16z

Ben HorowitzErik TorenbergAlex Blania

YouTube
TL;DR
  • Alex Blania argues that AI agents will force platforms to distinguish a human, an agent acting on a human’s behalf, and an autonomous agent. An authorized agent might post to its owner’s X or Instagram account after receiving defined rights, while the essential property remains uniqueness: one person controls one account, ideally, or a limited number, with privacy-preserving verification. Purely digital reputation fails because an AI can maintain GitHub accounts and attest to other AIs as humans.

  • World ID’s bet is that global uniqueness requires high-entropy iris biometrics, not conventional face or fingerprint checks. Phone systems such as Face ID solve one-to-one authentication; proof of human requires one-to-N comparison against the network, where faces and fingerprints eventually hit an accuracy wall after tens of millions of users. The Orb checks iris uniqueness while using multiple sensors to resist displays and replay attacks.

  • The privacy architecture separates the biometric check from the person’s identity rather than building a central iris database. The Orb computes an iris code, splits it among multiple computers through multi-party computation, and returns only “Yes, that individual is unique”; a phone-held secret and zero-knowledge proof then let the user prove uniqueness to a platform without either World ID or the platform learning who they are.

  • Blania expects today’s bot problem to look trivial within one or two years as intelligence gets cheaper and agents become more capable. “We currently see less than 1% of what it will look like,” and the threat is persuasive as well as volumetric: AI participants in a Change My Mind experiment tailored arguments to users’ histories and political motivations. Ben Horowitz adds that “AIs are really good at programming humans”—much better than humans are at programming AIs—and Blania agrees.

  • The near-term demand spans dating, video calls, gaming, creator platforms, and digital advertising. Tinder’s Japan test gives Orb-verified users a human badge, while a next step discussed would check that profile photos match the verified person. Erik Torenberg predicts that real-time, photorealistic deepfakes will become a commodity in about a year. Advertisers also face Alex’s recursive hypothetical: “I created 100 AI videos, and I had 1 million AIs watch them.”

  • The company says market risk has shifted into a capital-intensive execution problem with strong network effects. It reports 18 million verified users and 40 million total in the app, but estimates roughly 50,000 devices are needed to put an Orb within 15 minutes of people across the US. About 90% of company effort over the next year is expected to target the US, with Walmart- or Starbucks-scale deployment, independent venues, and an “Orb on Demand” motorbike service all part of the rollout.

  • For investors, the upside case is a scarce human network that becomes more valuable as the cost of intelligence falls almost exponentially—but distribution and normalization remain the gating risks. Blania says platform interest has made the opportunity “much more of an execution problem, not anymore a market risk.” His thesis is that, in a world of AI, a human network will be incredibly important and benefit from strong network effects. Weaker phone-based Face Check may limit one person to perhaps 10 or 20 accounts rather than 100, but Blania calls it temporary because deepfakes will “fundamentally break” it.

  • Blania also frames proof of human as public infrastructure. He says governments will need cryptographically strong ways to identify unique humans and citizens of particular countries, send money more efficiently, and protect democracy. He claims $400 billion was stolen from COVID stimulus programs and argues that verifying unique humans—even if they were not citizens—would have helped; he also says AI-scale impersonation, mail-in ballots built for a different world, and fraud in Social Security and Medicare could otherwise undermine the will of the people.

Digest · the substance, structured for research

1. Proof of human is fundamentally a uniqueness problem

  • Blania divides future internet actors into three categories: a human, an agent acting with a human’s authorization, and an autonomous agent. An authorized agent might post to its owner’s X or Instagram account after receiving defined rights, while the account remains associated with a unique human.

  • The required property is not merely detecting a person at signup. A system must verify that “every individual that interacts on a platform has only one, ideally one account,” or a limited number, then continuously authenticate that the same person remains in control.

  • Today’s bot filtering is a losing catch-up game: Blania says there may be one human sending out 10,000 or 100,000 AIs, while X and Twitter are probably trying to block millions of such accounts per day. His premise is that digital behavior and history cannot reliably establish humanity once AI can reproduce everything digital that an AI can do.

  • Web-of-trust systems therefore fail at the root. An AI can age a GitHub account, post regularly, own other accounts, and “attest to 5 other AIs that these are, in fact, humans,” creating a convincing but entirely synthetic reputation graph.

2. Iris verification is Blania’s answer to the one-to-N problem that phones do not solve

  • Government identity was rejected as the universal foundation because it threatens anonymity, concentrates speech infrastructure under state control, and cannot solve a global problem. Singapore may have perfect infrastructure, Blania notes, but that cannot cover a Meta-scale service with 3 billion users across many jurisdictions.

  • Face ID answers whether the current face matches one stored embedding: “one-to-one authentication.” Proof of human must establish that a new applicant has never enrolled among all existing participants, turning the task into one-to-N matching with an exponential information requirement as the network grows.

  • Blania says faces and fingerprints eventually hit an accuracy wall after tens of millions of users; he considers the iris unique enough for the problem. He also expects iris scanning to normalize through AR and VR hardware, pointing to iris ID in Apple Vision Pro.

  • Verification and authentication remain separate. The Orb uses multiple sensors across the electromagnetic spectrum to reject screens and other replay attempts; later authentication may work on a sufficiently trustworthy newer phone, while older Android hardware can permit deepfakes to be displayed or injected directly into the camera stream. Some users may need to revisit an Orb a few times per year.

3. Privacy depends on splitting the biometric before it leaves the Orb

  • The hosts surface the original fear bluntly: “Oh my God, they’ve got my eyeball.” Blania’s response is that uniqueness cannot remain wholly on-device—“something needs to leave”—but neither World ID nor any single database needs to possess the complete biometric representation.

  • The Orb takes the images, computes an iris code locally, splits that code into pieces, and sends them to separate computers. Multi-party computation lets those parties determine uniqueness while “no one has the whole thing,” including during the computation itself.

  • What returns is only the conclusion, “Yes, that individual is unique.” A separate secret stays on the user’s phone; through a zero-knowledge proof, the person can later show a social network that this secret belongs to a unique enrollee without revealing their identity to either the network or World ID.

4. Synthetic people threaten both trust and internet economics

  • Tinder’s Japan test market is the clearest live example: an Orb-verified user receives a badge showing that a human controls the profile. A next step discussed would associate World ID with the profile pictures, establishing both that the participant is human and “the person you claim to be.”

  • Erik predicts that video conferencing will become high stakes when photorealistic, real-time deepfakes can impersonate a fund manager or another valuable target during a call involving borrowing money. Blania says those capabilities are already very close.

  • Gaming creates a different authenticity demand: players train for hours and may wager money, then discover they were “destroyed by an AI that is superhuman in every dimension.” The issue is not whether AI gameplay is entertaining, but whether participants know what they are competing against.

  • Content platforms face fraud on both sides of the market. Alex reports hearing about one creator who made, he thinks, on the order of 100 AI-generated videos per day and earned tens of thousands of dollars monthly. The hosts separately point to farms with thousands of phones watching videos all day, which Ben says provides zero value to advertisers; Alex jokes about 1 million AIs watching the videos. Human provenance also matters to fans whose support depends on a perceived relationship with an actual creator.

5. Persuasion at scale makes provenance more than an anti-spam feature

  • Blania says current conditions are “less than 1% of what it will look like in probably a year or 2,” given the almost exponential decline in the cost of intelligence and the superlinear increase in agentic capability. The coming agents will not merely flood channels; they may understand individuals and speak to each in the most effective way.

  • His strongest specimen is a University of Zurich experiment involving the Change My Mind subreddit. AI systems reportedly inspected users’ profiles, inferred political motivations and communication styles, then tailored responses with superhuman effectiveness: “AIs are really good at programming humans.”

  • Ben notes that fictional content such as movies needs no reality claim, while TikTok-style media derives value from some connection to reality or a person. Even a Gemini-generated podcast based on a scientific paper may be entertaining and grounded in something real, but audiences and advertisers still benefit from knowing how it was made—and whether a human or an AI watched it.

  • Blania expects people to “take a lot more pride in being human” as real users begin getting accused of being bots. The hosts see a platform that cannot delineate the two as increasingly incoherent, while Blania predicts phone-only facial biometrics will be tried and then broken.

6. The thesis has matured from market risk into a distribution race

  • The original pitch roughly six years earlier was already the same: cyberspace would need proof of humanity, and the resulting human network could develop powerful network effects. Ben Horowitz recalls that the Orb was “so wild”—scanning people’s retinas—before ChatGPT; the concern was timing, not whether synthetic identity would eventually become a problem.

  • Post-ChatGPT, people began engaging but still treated the problem as years away. Blania identifies the more recent “Cloud Bots and Mobile Book” moment as the point when many more people started reaching out. He now sees “much more of an execution problem, not anymore a market risk,” though economics, platform integration, user behavior, and device distribution remain formidable.

  • Blania frames rollout as a three-sided coordination problem: platforms must use the technology, devices must become reachable, and the combined utility must make many people want to use it. All three need to land at roughly the same time.

  • The reported footprint is 18 million verified users and 40 million total users in the app. To make an Orb reachable within 15 minutes across the US may require about 50,000 devices; roughly 90% of company effort over the next year is expected to focus on the US after limited investment there under the past administration because of crypto. Blania says he hopes the Clarity Act passes shortly.

  • Distribution could combine major partners such as Walmart or Starbucks, independent coffee shops, and government locations such as the DMV. Blania says the team will soon launch “Orb on Demand,” with a motorbike bringing an Orb to a Bay Area or New York user in about 50 minutes. He says he has not seen a real competitor yet, though expects competitors to come because the problem is now obvious.

  • Face Check offers an interim anonymous tier that may limit one person to 10 or 20 accounts instead of 100, but Blania stresses that deepfakes make it temporary. The operating principle is: “whatever could be useful for this problem, we just build it.”

7. Blania also sees proof of human as public infrastructure

  • Blania says governments will need cryptographically strong infrastructure to identify who is a citizen of which country and to send money to citizens more efficiently. He claims that $400 billion was stolen from COVID stimulus programs and argues that verifying unique humans—even if they were not citizens—would have helped distribute that money.

  • He calls the SAVE Act crude but “not completely insane,” because he says society does not genuinely know whether people voting are actual or living people. He argues that mail-in ballots were built for a different world and that high-scale AI impersonation, combined with a broken Social Security system, could make the will of the people disappear.

  • He extends the same reasoning to Social Security, Medicare, and other social programs, which he describes as lossy and fraudulent. In his view, proof of human is one piece of a broader infrastructure upgrade needed to transfer benefits more efficiently and preserve democracy.

Alex Blania

How do you prove somebody’s human? It is a surprisingly hard problem. I think people are going to start getting accused of being bots. What we currently see is less than 1% of what it will look like in probably a year or two.

Alex Blania

The idea that AGI will lead to some very fundamental shift seems obvious.

Alex Blania

AIs are really good at programming humans—much better than humans are at programming AIs.

Alex Blania

Absolutely.

Alex Blania

AI will be able to have a GitHub account, post, and attest to 5 other AIs that these are, in fact, humans, even though they’re not.

Alex Blania

I say, if you don’t take it seriously now—

Alex Blania

Alex, welcome to the podcast. Great to have you.

Alex Blania

Thanks for having me.

Alex Blania

Proof of human is having a moment right now. Why don’t you first give some background for people who are unfamiliar? What is the moment that’s happening, and how did we get here?

Alex Blania

What is proof of human? Proof of human, as the name suggests, is: Do you know whether you’re interacting with a human or something else on the internet? I actually think that the kinds of questions we’re now asking are: Are you interacting with a human, an agent on behalf of a human, or just an agent? I think these are roughly the 3 areas that we want to split apart.

Alex Blania

Describe a little bit the difference between just an agent and an agent acting on behalf of a human. How do you see that distinction?

Alex Blania

I’ll quickly explain the term “proof of human” and what’s hard about it, and then I’ll explain how that fits into an agent on behalf of a human. What proof of humanity really means is that every individual who interacts on a platform has only one—ideally one—account, or a limited number of accounts, and remains the owner of that account. That’s the property you’re looking for.

You’re looking for an initial verification that ideally should be anonymous or extremely privacy-preserving, and then ongoing authentication that the same person remains in control of their account. There are some secondary properties that are good to have, but that tells you that the really hard thing is uniqueness.

What’s happening on a platform like Twitter right now is that there are all these accounts—all these bots in the replies. There’s probably 1 human sitting somewhere and sending out 10,000 or 100,000 AIs. There’s this catch-up game where Twitter and X are trying to find them and block probably millions a day of these.

Alex Blania

Which is, like, 1/100th of the bots?

Alex Blania

That’s right. That’s how it feels. And then, with an agent on behalf of a human, I think all of us will have agents. It’s unclear what that will look like. Is it going to be 1, or are there multiple ones, maybe with different tasks and even different types of characters?

I think it will then come down to: I approve a certain action of my agent. I give it certain rights. So, act on my behalf. Post to my X account. Post to my Instagram, for example.

Alex Blania

But it’s my Instagram, and I’m a unique human that owns that.

Alex Blania

That’s right. X or Instagram could decide whether that’s actually something they want as a platform.

Alex Blania

Right. That’s how you could do it. That makes sense. So, how do you prove somebody’s human? It is a surprisingly hard problem.

Alex Blania

Those agents are very clever. We started this company a couple of years ago, way before ChatGPT and before all of that. We took it as an assumption that eventually we would have AIs that both pass the Turing test—they can claim to be human, and you will not be able to tell them apart on the internet—and are highly agentic and just run around and do their own thing.

That makes it really hard, because back when we started the company, there were roughly 3 big ideas that people were interested in. One was the idea of a web of trust, or a related idea: You look at how someone behaves on the internet or has behaved in the past.

Usually, it was a combination of having a certain number of accounts that you’ve owned for a couple of years and then posting or commenting regularly on GitHub. Those were the kinds of things people were using. Let’s say all 3 of us have those accounts, and then I attest that I know you in the real world. That’s how you would build a certain graph.

That was a very hot idea back then, but we disregarded it basically immediately because we assumed that eventually everything that’s digital and that an AI can do, an AI will be able to do as well.

Alex Blania

We’re there.

Alex Blania

Exactly. An AI will be able to have a GitHub account, post, own an account, and attest to 5 other AIs that these are, in fact, humans, even though they’re not.

Area number 2 was to just use government IDs for everything, which we also immediately disregarded for a couple of reasons. I think it’s strictly better if the government would not control such an infrastructure in terms of free speech and actually breaking that apart.

Alex Blania

Right. You lose anonymity instantly, right?

Alex Blania

You could hypothetically set up a system that maybe preserves it, but it’s very hard to do. The other thing is that the government ID identity system is just not built for that.

What’s so hard about this problem is that it’s going to be a global problem. It doesn’t really matter if 1 government has the perfect infrastructure. For example, Singapore is an example of a government that has perfect infrastructure all around.

But that barely matters, because Meta is a global product with 3 billion users, and there are a lot of other countries.

Alex Blania

Singapore is what, like, 2 million people or a million people?

Alex Blania

Yeah. So, do you want to lock everyone else out? There’s a long list of other reasons why we disregarded that basically immediately.

The last one is biometrics, which immediately gives us this ick reaction. It even went further, because what’s so hard about this problem, as I mentioned in the beginning, is uniqueness.

In very simple words, you can describe the problem like this: What does Face ID do? Face ID checks that I’m the same person again when using my phone. It’s a one-to-one authentication. There’s an embedding stored on my phone; it takes a picture of my face, creates a new picture, compares it to the previous one, and if it’s close enough, I can use my phone.

That’s one-to-one: 1 embedding to 1 new embedding. To solve the proof-of-human problem, you need to distinguish 1 new individual from all previous individuals. You need to make sure that Ben is trying to sign up and that Ben did not sign up before.

Suddenly, it goes from one-to-one to one-to-N, and N is the size of your network, essentially, that you’re trying to prove it to. You can do the math and calculate how much mathematical entropy—how much information, just information-theoretically—you need to prove that.

It turns out to be a pretty high number because it’s an exponential problem. You can do the math and find out that things like faces or even fingerprints don’t work. You would basically hit a wall after tens of millions of users.

Alex Blania

Right. And so then you end up with something like the iris, which is the muscle of your eye, that actually has enough entropy.

Alex Blania

That’s unique enough. You also have to solve the problem that biometrics have historically been subject to replay attacks. I may not have your eyeball, but I’ve got enough information that I can run a replay attack on you.

It’s important to split up the problem into verification, which is essentially, in old terms, like getting your passport, and authentication, which is you showing your passport constantly for certain kinds of things.

On the verification piece, if you know Worldcoin, you know that we’ve built this thing called an Orb. It’s doing a lot of things to prevent these kinds of attacks. For example, it has multiple sensors in the electromagnetic spectrum to make sure that you can’t show it a display and have it recognize that.

On that side, we’ve got it handled. On the consumer side, where it should then reauthenticate, it turns out to be much harder, because you would need to trust the phone in some sense.

Mhm. Because what we actually do in that moment is, when you verify with an Orb, we not only check your uniqueness in a fully anonymous and privacy-preserving way—and we should talk about that—but we also send to your phone a signed face image that you can later use to reauthenticate against it. With a new iPhone, you can have a meaningful amount of trust against that, but with old Android phones, basically not.

Alex Blania

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Alex Blania

Because you can just show a deepfake, essentially, either through a display or directly inject it into the camera stream. So that’s the problem. It’s going to be a mix of: if you have a new enough iPhone or a newer phone in general, then you can just reauthenticate against the picture that you took on verification. Otherwise, you would probably have to go back to an Orb somewhat frequently, let’s say a couple of times a year.

Alex Blania

I see. Right, to reauthenticate.

Alex Blania

Yeah, that’s right.

Alex Blania

Interesting. And then one of the incorrect criticisms of the approach early was, “Oh my God, they’ve got my eyeball.” Now they somehow have access to my privacy, and they’re going to do all these things to me. They have my iris, and then Worldcoin can impersonate me, and all these kinds of things. But that’s not the case, and that was also a nontrivial engineering problem.

Alex Blania

It was very much nontrivial. Actually, I think one point about the iris that people don’t appreciate enough is that it was a bet we took back then: iris will turn out to be super normal as a modality, just because I think we will all wear AR and VR systems that do that. Apple already does it.

Erik Torenberg

Yep.

Alex Blania

Apple already has iris ID in the Vision Pro. So I think it’s going to become something that we use across many different devices and normalize in that sense.

Erik Torenberg

So maybe that’s a general point.

Alex Blania

But on the privacy piece, that took us a lot of time because, when we decided back then—with our assumptions, which was 6 years ago—that we would need a custom hardware device for biometrics, it was actually quite scary to come to that conclusion.

Erik Torenberg

That’s an expensive conclusion.

Alex Blania

It’s very expensive. Then there was the idea that you would need to distribute them all over the world. That just assumes that you would be able to somehow bring up billions of dollars and undertake a massive effort to roll this out across the world. But then there was also the privacy challenge: how could you build such a system with all the requirements that we care about? The 2 main high-level ideas for how to solve it were multi-party computation and zero-knowledge proofs.

Erik Torenberg

Mhm.

Alex Blania

Again, what is different from Face ID? Face ID can be very private because the embedding is stored on the phone. It doesn’t have to leave the phone ever, because it’s just you against you in the past. But to check uniqueness, you need to check against all previous people, so something needs to leave.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, something needs to leave and be compared to someone else.

Alex Blania

And that’s a much harder challenge. How we approach that is with multi-party computation. In our case, when you verify with an Orb, we take all these pictures. They get computed on the device, and then they actually get split up into multiple pieces. For example, we take a picture of your iris, calculate an iris code, then break that iris code into multiple pieces and send it to multiple computers, such that there is no central database. No one actually has the information about you.

Erik Torenberg

Right.

Alex Blania

Then you do some clever tricks for how these different parties need to come together to do a computation that still leaves the pieces apart.

Erik Torenberg

Right, right, right.

Alex Blania

Yeah, so no one has the whole thing, and also during the computation no one has the whole thing. They do some clever interactions to come to the conclusion—

Erik Torenberg

Like a zero-knowledge-proof kind of technique.

Alex Blania

It’s very different, but in terms of the properties it achieves, it’s somewhat similar: no one knows anything about you, but you can together make a statement about you. You send it to this multi-party computation, and what comes back is, “Yes, that individual is unique.”

And the second thing we do is separate all of this from you with a zero-knowledge proof. Meaning, you have the secret on your phone, but no one else has it. No server has it; we don’t have it. Then you can later go back to this multi-party computation and say, “Hey, I have a secret that is part of that computation, and I am in fact unique.” Then you can prove that to a platform. You could go to a social network and prove that you’re a unique user to the social platform without us knowing anything about you or the social network knowing anything about you.

It’s just very counterintuitive that even though it uses biometrics, you preserve anonymity and extreme levels of privacy, which I think is super cool.

Erik Torenberg

Social media is one kind of vector of things that were annoying and are now becoming overwhelming in terms of just bots, particularly with psyops, propaganda, and all these kinds of things. What are some of the other uses of bots that are going to be impossible to live with if we don’t get to proof of human in the future?

Alex Blania

Actually, I think the simple model I have for it is that every moment on the internet that is primarily about humans interacting with each other—or even indirectly interacting with each other—is affected. You can start with simple ones like dating. It really matters whether the other side is in fact a person.

Erik Torenberg

Yep. What if the other side is in fact a person?

Alex Blania

And the person you expected them to be.

Erik Torenberg

Well, I’ve got bad news for listeners.

Alex Blania

We had this problem even before the whole catfishing thing.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, exactly.

Alex Blania

That’s an obvious one. Tinder is already using it for that reason.

Erik Torenberg

What’s the Tinder use case?

Alex Blania

We started in Japan as a test market, and it’s essentially exactly what we just discussed. If you’ve verified with an Orb, you get a little badge that signals to other people that you are in fact a human. So it has a high level of verification.

What will come next is that you’re actually the person you claim to be. Meaning, you have a World ID that is associated with the profile pictures that you use, so you just run a quick check that this is all correct. You then know you’re not interacting with a bot, but also that you’re interacting with a fully authentic profile.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah. Another fun one, because I think it’s somewhat counterintuitive, but I think it will be video conferencing.

Alex Blania

Mhm. Because you already have deepfakes.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, I just don’t feel like going to this video conference with my deepfake on.

Alex Blania

Actually, you raised it to me first, and that’s why we started building a product for it. It will actually start with very high-value users—for example, people like yourself who maybe manage a fund, where sometimes calls could be very high-value if they’re about borrowing money or—

Erik Torenberg

Oh, yeah, yeah. Somebody can— It’s still slightly hypothetical because these things are not fully real time, and you can somehow—

Alex Blania

They’re very close.

Erik Torenberg

But they’re very close. And so I think, in a year from now, it’s just going to be a full commodity. It’s going to be super photorealistic and absolutely real time, and you will just not know anything anymore on these video calls. So I think that’s another one.

Alex Blania

I think another one will be gaming. It’s fun, but it’s going to be gaming.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, because gamers really care—

Alex Blania

Oh, yeah, yeah. Because gamers really care that they’re not playing an AI.

Erik Torenberg

Holy cow, that’s frustrating. Especially if we bet money.

Alex Blania

Yeah, exactly. You lose money, you train multiple hours a day to get really good at this thing, and then suddenly you get destroyed by an AI that is superhuman in every dimension.

Funny enough, I wonder what you think about this, because I don’t have a good mental model for it. Even the whole model for video platforms, I think, is about to break. There are a couple of dimensions to the problem, but one is that if the creation of content is becoming super scalable. For example, I heard about this one guy who created, I think, on the order of 100 videos a day on YouTube and made tens of thousands of dollars a month. All of them were fully AI-generated.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah.

Alex Blania

People just fell for it. So now the question is: is that actually something that YouTube wants to monetize that way?

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, well, it’s interesting, right? They fell for it.

Alex Blania

But maybe they liked it. They’re like, “That could be.” But it would sure be nice to know, “Okay, this is a human video, or this is an AI video.” Actually, my thesis about this is something along the lines of: I think there are categories of content that are clearly just fictional. Movies are that, you know? You don’t care that there’s any connection to reality. It’s just a fully fictional story. But if you think about something like TikTok, or all these kinds of things, people actually really care about them mostly because there is some connection to reality.

Ben Horowitz

Yeah. Well, there’s reality and there’s a connection to a human, right? You can create a pretty good podcast—you can take a scientific paper and give it to Gemini and say, “Make this into a podcast,” and it’ll be a pretty entertaining podcast. It will be reality in that it came from some real thing, but you would like to know that.

Erik Torenberg

You would like to know that. Yeah, I would like to know that. As an advertiser, you’d like to know: did a human watch it?

Erik Torenberg

Or did an AI watch it? [laughter]

Alex Blania

Yes, right. That’s the other thing: I created 100 AI videos, and I had 1 million AIs watch them. [laughter]

Erik Torenberg

And then I made a lot of money off YouTube. Exactly. I actually saw that video today of a YouTube farm where there are thousands of phones that just watch videos all day for some reason.

Ben Horowitz

Yeah, and that has zero value to YouTube advertisers. That’s actually a real problem for them. The whole creator-economy platform of the last decade—Substack, Spotify, and all the people who support artists, Patreon and other creators, YouTubers—they have a personal relationship with these people. It’s not just that they like the art. If they suddenly found out that they were bots, they might not want to support them in the same way.

Erik Torenberg

You might not want to give them a big YouTube tip.

Ben Horowitz

Yeah, I think there’s a certain subset of people who want to support actual people and feel like they’re having a real relationship.

Alex Blania

Yeah. The thing that I think people don’t really get is that this should be obvious, but I don’t think people really understand the consequence of it. What we currently experience is a super, super tiny glimpse of what’s about to happen.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, right. It’s a glimpse.

Alex Blania

It’s a glimpse. The cost of intelligence is dropping almost exponentially, and agentic capabilities are increasing in some superlinear form. We currently see less than 1% of what it will look like in probably a year or 2. And, second, these things will actually be superhuman in many ways. They’ll be perfectly able to understand you and talk to you in exactly the right way.

Ben Horowitz

AIs are really good at programming humans. That’s much better than humans are at programming AIs.

Alex Blania

Absolutely. There’s no question. I think that’s going to get quite scary, also. But at least if you know you’re the victim of a psyop, or that it’s a very advanced one done by an AI, that would be extremely useful to understand. There was one paper that I think you’ve got to read. It was about the Change My Mind subreddit, where the University of Zurich did this thing where they had AIs actually interact with Change My Mind.

Ben Horowitz

Yeah.

Alex Blania

They were superhuman in their ability to change minds because they went back to the profiles of the people posting and understood their political motivations, the way they talked, and then interacted in exactly the right way. [laughter] They just hit all the buttons.

Erik Torenberg

Totally. Talk a little bit more about the state of the product and the business today. How many IDs are out there? Do you want to give us a little bit of an update and maybe talk about the evolution as well?

Alex Blania

First of all, it’s a multisided problem. I think there are roughly 3 things that you have to consider. One is that you need platforms to use the technology—things like Reddit, X, or things like that. You need distribution of these devices, and I think the right mental model for it is: how many minutes does it take a person to reach such a device, on average?

Currently, if you took the global average, it would be a terrible number. It would be days or something, because many people would need to fly. How do we get that down to below 15 minutes across the US? That’s probably roughly 50,000 devices that you need to deploy. It’s not crazy, but it’s also not nothing. It’s hard to do.

The last one is: how does all of that come together into something that a lot of people really want to use? That’s a combination of the utility of all the subplatforms, essentially, but all of that layers on top. Maybe you can use a new Reddit account. Maybe you get a certain amount of a ChatGPT subscription for free. I think it’s going to be a combination of things, but you need to land all 3 at some point at the same time, which is hard to do.

We’re now at 18 million verified users and 40 million in total in the app. The biggest thing is that, because of the past administration and because we use crypto, we didn’t really invest in the US for a long time. That’s now the main shift that we’re going through.

Alex Blania

Hopefully, we get the Clarity Act passed shortly.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, exactly. It would be really great to get clarity on that.

Alex Blania

The big focus that we’re going through right now is to go all in on the US. Over the next year, 90% of the company’s effort is going to go toward the US. How do you get device distribution up? How do you eventually have this on every Starbucks, so it becomes super normal and people just use it every day?

On the platform side, we went through a very interesting experience personally. A couple of years ago, universally, people just made fun of us. That was the universal reaction, apart from a couple of other people who believed in it. In the press, the amount of fun being made of it just showed how shortsighted people are.

Ben Horowitz

That’s right.

Erik Torenberg

It’s like, you don’t think the bots are coming? What did you think when we first pitched it, actually? Even you must have thought, “This is crazy.”

Ben Horowitz

Well, because you had the Orb. The Orb was so wild. “Okay, we’re going to scan people’s retinas, and that’s how we’re going to know they’re human,” and so forth. You pitched us 6.5 years ago—6 years ago.

Alex Blania

Yeah, it was before COVID, because you were there with the Orb, right? AI just hadn’t happened yet.

Ben Horowitz

But you could kind of see that there were bots. They were very crude compared to what they are now, but it seemed inevitable. At least at the time, it was so far from the future that we always worry about the timing of these things. But you were impressive enough, it was going to happen eventually, and it was an exciting enough idea that all those things got us to say, “Okay, we’re in.”

It wasn’t obvious that it was going to work in that timeframe. It seemed very unobvious for a long time.

Erik Torenberg

How different was that pitch from what it ended up being? Talk a little bit about it.

Alex Blania

It was actually pretty much exactly the same pitch. I think it’s the same thing. The device changed; they made it much more economical and convenient. But the initial instinct was right. Basically, everybody is going to have to prove they’re human. You’re either going to have to have some proof that you’re human in cyberspace, or it’s going to be a very bad world.

Ben Horowitz

Yeah. I mean, the robots are going to get us. We’re done.

Alex Blania

Right. And the second point was that when it becomes a big deal, we’ll be able to build one of the most valuable networks as a result. In a world of AI, having a human network is going to be incredibly important. You’ll need to prove that you’re human, but it will also have very strong network effects.

Even as you get into platforms, one of the platforms’ largest problems has been bots. You remember Elon backed out of buying Twitter because all the stats were based on bots.

Erik Torenberg

Still, even knowing that, it was hard for them to get all the way to the future in their thinking and go, “Yeah, we need proof of human.”

Alex Blania

Yeah, it’s kind of obvious.

Erik Torenberg

People were like, “What does it even mean? What does proof of human even mean?” Did you have the language? When did you come up with the language “proof of human”?

Alex Blania

We actually had “proof of personhood” for the longest time. It’s even here in this brief. But then, at some point, we were like, “Well, at some point, AIs will have personhood, too.” So that’s not going to fly.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, but they’re not going to have retinas for a long time.

Alex Blania

That’s actually—oh, that’s coming eventually. It was really funny. Some of the OpenAI people I met were like, “Man, Alex, this is going to be so dark. People will hate you for not giving personhood to AIs.” And I was like, “Jesus.”

Erik Torenberg

Let’s call it Proof of Human, then.

Alex Blania

That’s funny. So that’s how it changed. I would say last year, post-ChatGPT, there was a big shift. That was when AI suddenly got real to people. That’s when people started talking to us, but it was still, “It’s a future problem. It’s probably a couple of years out. We don’t really care about it. Let’s stay in touch.” That was the common response.

You also had a couple of CEOs who really believed that and were willing to take the long-term bet, to give them credit. But I think the second big shift was actually Cloud Bots and Mobile Book recently.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah.

Alex Blania

That kind of means the cow is way out of the barn. Honestly, if you don’t take it seriously now, then I think you should get a different job or something. You’re just not thinking about problems in the right way. That was the moment when many, many people started reaching out.

Now it feels much more like an execution problem, not a market risk anymore—not a market-risk or thesis problem. It’s just: How do you get 50,000 devices out there? How do you make it cheap enough? How do you make it economic? How do you make all 3 of these things work at the same time?

It’s still a very hard problem. How do you normalize the behavior so people aren’t weirded out in a Starbucks or something? Although, I think people are going to get used to that. I’m saying that because I think people will hate the alternative so much.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah.

Alex Blania

I think people are going to take a lot more pride in being human, by the way, particularly online.

Erik Torenberg

I think people are going to start getting accused of being bots.

Alex Blania

Totally. It’s going to get really weird. Without a clear delineation, it’s going to be a mess. I don’t understand how somebody can think they’re going to have a social media platform that doesn’t distinguish between humans and bots. That seems absurd to me.

Erik Torenberg

It’s absurd.

Alex Blania

My guess is that over the next 2 months, we’ll see these platforms trying to use things like facial biometrics on the phone. I know it will break, so it’s fine, but I think we’ll go through that cycle now.

We just need to get to scale fast enough to meet the market for what comes after, which I think means something like the Orb is the only solution. Currently, there’s no real competition. I have not seen a competitor yet, and I think we’ll also see that.

It’s so ridiculous. It’s so ridiculous, and it is so hard to get to in terms of building it. Then there’s a massive network effect, which means people are starting 6 years behind you on that. But I’m sure they’ll come, because it’s such an obvious problem now.

Erik Torenberg

What actually do you think about, as AI continues? What, in your mind, are the economic policies that we will need to implement, or directionally?

Alex Blania

I think governments do have to figure out how to send citizens money. They’re good at taking money from citizens, but not the reverse. If you go back to COVID and the stimulus program, I think $400 billion was stolen. You would have liked to know that you were sending the money to unique humans—even if they weren’t citizens. As long as they were unique humans, that would have been good.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah, I mean, the Social Security system, for example, is a mess in the U.S. It’s a total disaster.

Alex Blania

We’re going to have to get to some kind of cryptographically strong way to identify who’s a citizen of what country. That’s going to be a really bad problem, I think. Otherwise, there’s no way to even have a democracy.

It’s pretty crude what they’re trying to do with the SAVE Act, but it’s not completely insane. How do you even know that the people who are voting are actual people, or living people, or anything? We genuinely don’t know now.

The whole mail-in ballot thing is built for a very different world. I don’t think that, in an AI world where you can have high-scale impersonation, combined with a broken Social Security system, you’re going to have the will of the people anymore. I think that’s going to be gone pretty fast.

We’re going to need some kind of cryptographically strong infrastructure for who’s who. Similarly, I think we’re going to have to be able to get people money much more efficiently than through this crazy apparatus of social programs that we have, just because of how lossy and fraudulent Social Security, Medicare, and all of these things are.

Medicare is so frustrating for people that they shot the CEO of UnitedHealthcare in mail, and people are happy about that—really happy. Think about how bad a system that is. The government spends a lot of money sending you money for your health care, but it does it in a super-inefficient way.

We have the technology to do that now. I think AI is going to make that problem so bad because of the ability to file fraudulent claims and create fake, you know, buy social. I mean, you can buy Social Security numbers on the black market. For those who don’t know, that’s an easy thing. That’s a real thing. Everybody’s Social Security number is for sale.

Erik Torenberg

I agree with that.

Alex Blania

I think proof of human is a piece of a very important puzzle where we have to upgrade the entire infrastructure, or we’re not going to be a democracy anymore. That would be my guess.

Erik Torenberg

You said, “Okay, next year, go to market, focus on the U.S.” Say more about how you’re thinking about that. Is the incentive for people to do it because they get to use a set of services? Is there some other economic incentive, or how do you envision it?

Alex Blania

Basically, a month ago, we entered a very different phase as a project. I do believe many of the platforms that we’re now integrating with will bring a lot of users to our platform, and that changes how you think about it entirely. If you have a platform with a billion users sending users to you, then it’s really all about how you meet that demand. That’s what we’re now entering.

First, you will see—and we’re already working on it—a lot of really large platforms integrate in the near term. To set expectations, I think it will be slow initially, because it should be, just to understand the product. It will be focused on certain geographies. With Tinder, we started in Japan just to test the product and normalize the concept, but that will happen.

Secondly, one of my main priorities now is: How do you get Orb distribution up? Broadly speaking, there are a couple of different dimensions to that. First of all, the product needs to work at scale without supervision, which turns out to be much harder than you would think.

Every engineering problem at scale turns out to be much more complicated than you would think, because fighting for 1% of improvement in quality involves all these dependencies that come together. That’s one of the biggest engineering focuses right now.

But then, second, you need to find places to deploy them. The way to think about it is that there are large-scale distribution partnerships. That could be something like Walmart, or, if you’re very ambitious, something like Starbucks. Or it can just be one-off hip coffee shops, where you put it there. Eventually, you could even go to the DMV and put it right there.

So, that's the problem we're currently trying to piece together. It's going to be some of all of that. I think there's going to be some large-scale distribution partnerships and many one-off coffee shops.

Well, actually, one thing that we will launch soon—and the team is going to hate that I'm saying this now—but it's going to be Orb on Demand.

Erik Torenberg

Sounds good. [Laughter] Orb on Demand. Yeah, send it there.

Alex Blania

It's just because it's such a gnarly problem to get an Orb to truly everyone. The capex is insane. So, it's actually much cheaper and easier to put an Orb on a motorbike and drive it to you, as crazy as it sounds. In places like the Bay Area or New York, you will just be able to say, “Yeah, I want to verify now.” And 50 minutes later, an Orb comes to you at work and you can verify.

Erik Torenberg

Wow. Did you ever think about having different levels? Like, we know you're a unique human, or, hey, this guy may be a unique human because he's done it on his iPhone and it's not quite the same?

Alex Blania

Yeah, yeah, we have that. Generally, we have the principle that whatever could be useful for this problem, we just build it. We have something called Face Check that does that. It uses facial data from the camera. It still uses multiparty computation that we've built for the entire system, so you're still anonymous.

It of course reaches way less accuracy. As a system, you'll know something along the lines of, “Well, at least one person cannot create 100 accounts.” Maybe it's just 10 or 20, so it's at least some measure of rate limiting. I do think, just as a disclaimer, that with deepfakes and all this stuff, that will fundamentally break.

So, it's a temporary solution that I think can get us to scale. That's kind of how I think about it. We also use government IDs similarly, but just the ones that have an NFC ID chip. We use multiparty computation, so you remain anonymous, and platforms can choose to use that as well. But no one really did. Some of them have a very negative stigma, which I think makes sense.

Erik Torenberg

Yeah.

Alex Blania

But yeah, basically, whatever could do it, by any means necessary.

Erik Torenberg

That's right. Yeah. I don't know. Well, thanks so much for coming on the podcast. It's been great.

Alex Blania

Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks for having me.

How Bots, Deepfakes and AI Agents Are Forcing a New Internet Identity Layer | Alex Blania on a16z | BidClub