Dan Nishball × Zane Fong × Kang Wen Cheang × Jordan Nanos

AI infrastructure’s bottleneck is shifting to balance-sheet capacity: $11 trillion of 2024-2029 capex could require roughly $7.1 trillion of funding, while five-year hyperscaler offtake excludes short-duration demand.NVIDIA’s GB300 backstop makes neocloud capacity lendable by flooring cash flow, but selects repeat buyers and ties NCP access to its stack; rapid GPU depreciation and utilization gaps remain the underwriting risk.

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

Blanket tariffs risk raising input costs and weakening US manufacturers, while disorderly Treasury moves could trigger margin calls, basis-trade unwinds and a credit freeze.China’s modular manufacturing ecosystem compounds expertise through shared demand, making full onshoring unviable; targeted schedules and guaranteed purchases could build trusted alternatives, but Taiwan decoupling may increase conflict risk.