Ben Horowitz

CoreWeave’s 953-basis-point CDS implies 16% annual default risk; fixed-price contracts and $35 billion more to raise leave Chamath’s team estimating a $5 billion break-even gap.Sacks sees demand holding, but financing costs remain a risk; Chamath urges Anthropic to raise at least $200 billion for compute, with SemiAnalysis estimating it and OpenAI will take 60% of next year’s global additions.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Vlad Barbalat

Liberty Mutual’s $120B balance sheet combines roughly $70–75B of reserves with growth credit and equity, while permanent mutual capital avoids shareholder pressure and supports 7–10% portfolio targets.Barbalat now questions whether AI makes future cash flows—and therefore multiples—structurally less visible, with four-year software credit appearing safer than 30-year Salesforce or Oracle debt and potentially steeper credit curves ahead.

Erik Torenberg × Turner Caldwell × Erin Price-Wright × Ryan McEntush

Critical minerals are physical inputs to AI, grids, batteries, data-center infrastructure, vehicles, and defense systems.Turner Caldwell’s mass-flow call is emphatic: “We need a lot of aluminum.We need an insane amount of copper.We need more iron.We need more zinc,” while lithium production capacity must roughly 4× over the next 10 years if…