SpaceX: Start of the Next Megabubble or End of the Rally?
SpaceX’s $135 IPO reached $177 within 35 seconds, valuing the debut at $1.77 trillion and keeping attention on mega-trend pricing.Its low float, high FDV, and forced index inflows support the rally, while insider unlocks and OpenAI and Anthropic listings could create a liquidity test.
SpaceX IPO, Iran War Fallout, Quantum Bitcoin Hack, The Space Opportunity
Chamath PalihapitiyaJason CalacanisDavid SacksDavid Friedberg
SpaceX’s proposed IPO would raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, potentially creating the external mark Chamath sees as necessary before a “99.999%” likely Tesla combination.That merger would unify xAI, robotics, chips, factories, launch, and satellite communications, while SpaceX infrastructure could support orbital logistics, stations, mining, power generation, and communications.The IPO window may narrow as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic absorb finite capital, while Friedberg estimates Bitcoin has five to seven years to complete quantum-resistance migration.
Vol.211 宏观漫谈103｜对比伊拉克战争，美以伊战事的底层逻辑变了（3.26录制）
美以伊目标缺乏交集，短期停火困难，战争已引发所有资产齐跌、仅美元上涨的极端risk off，并将市场推向滞胀交易。若伊朗政权被颠覆，中国将面临石油结算、能源定价与西部安全三重压力；未来5—10年能源多元化、生物制造和核能力重估值得跟踪。
White House BTS, Google buys Wiz, Treasury vs Fed, Space Rescue
Chamath PalihapitiyaJason CalacanisDavid SacksDavid FriedbergCyan Banister
Google’s $32 billion cash acquisition of Wiz reflects a possible “Trump premium” on M&A while giving Google a multicloud beachhead inside AWS and Azure.The price implies roughly 60 times trailing run rate or 32 times forward ARR, yet Google may need roughly $10 billion in incremental annual profit to meet its approximately 30% return-on-invested-capital standard.Crew Dragon’s 16 crewed flights and Starliner’s effective failure reinforce SpaceX’s near-term moat, while China’s Long March 9 keeps manufacturing capacity an unresolved strategic risk.