Harry Stebbings

OpenAI’s proposed round shrank from $30 billion to $20 billion, with about $11 billion committed, as Rory compares its $1.25 trillion valuation with potentially public Anthropic at $1.5–$2 trillion.DoorDash’s reported $17 billion Instacart deal could combine cited 60% and 20% delivery shares, subject to antitrust clearance, while agents’ direct-order potential threatens platform take rates despite negligible volumes today.

José Maria Macedo × Paavan Gami

India’s early IPOs can expose public investors to venture-style compounding: Gami cites a roughly $350 million median valuation, 70% founder-family ownership, and category leaders listing at $600 million–$1 billion.His thesis hinges on compliance-driven consolidation, with 5–6% leaders potentially reaching 30–40%; Eternal and Meesho show contrasting routes through rapid delivery and low-price logistics, making market-share gains central to the opportunity.

David Senra × Rafael Vivas

AppLovin challenged better-funded rivals with stronger targeting, sometimes monetizing inventory at “double the clip” and guaranteeing publishers more in writing.At roughly $150 billion in market value and 400 employees, AppLovin is on pace for $20 billion in ad spending versus roughly half a trillion across two biggest platforms, but better returns don’t automatically shift budgets.

Ben Thompson × Andrew Sharp

Anthropic’s subscriptions and API are profitable, yet training R&D exceeds serving costs and rose in the first half; cloud fees booked as sales and marketing may flatter margins.Thompson says the $80 billion first-half 2026 loss reflects Amazon loan repricing, while 2027–2028 customer revenue must catch industry capex; Meta’s Muse likewise makes training spend strategic, though Sharp questions its necessity.

Jenny Johnson × Molly O'Shea

Johnson favors shorter-term AI financing: today’s cash-generative borrowers differ from internet-bubble firms, but 20- or 30-year data-center debt risks locking in current chip and energy needs.Franklin Templeton’s late-stage SpaceX and Anthropic stakes seek missed IPO returns, but illiquid holdings may stay at 6%, 7% or 8% against a 15% limit.

Jordan Nanos × Doug O'Laughlin × Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros × Joey Brookhart

S-1 disclosures of two profitable quarters, margins above 10%, 85% inference gross margins and 41% compute margins challenge the subsidy thesis.Joey cites ninefold existing-customer spending growth; Jeremie says prospective resources above $200 billion frame $500–600 billion of compute commitments.Whether revenue can monetize 2027 capacity remains unresolved, alongside 25% revenue concentration among the top five customers.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Cliff Sosin

Cheap intelligence shifts value to complements: data, attention, scale, proximity, and attachment.Meta illustrates the upside: Sosin pairs $250 billion in revenue with equal annual spending treated as intelligence, whose price could fall “by a factor of 100 or something over the next five years.”His “diamond-shaped demand frontier” leaves lab profits uncertain as good-enough intelligence commoditizes.

Mark Cuban × Steven Bartlett

Cuban sees bubble-like pricing in Bitcoin, Micron, Google and Apple, where a one-cent earnings difference can coincide with an 18% share-price move, though he cannot identify a crash trigger.He questions whether AI financing needs will outrun returns as hyperscalers compete with government borrowers, and what gets crowded out if 10-year yields rise.He advocates patience and cash for a potential downturn, while timing, trigger and eventual winners remain unknown.

Andy Jassy × Ben Horowitz × Erik Torenberg

Amazon expects about $220 billion of 2026 CapEx, yet AWS capacity is sold out for 2026, largely for 2027, and partly for 2028; AWS AI has exceeded a $25 billion revenue run rate.Data centers require investment roughly two years before monetization, pressuring free cash flow; broader enterprise inference adoption also hinges on costs Jassy still calls an order of magnitude too high.

Andrew Sharp × Ben Thompson

Netflix’s engagement is 10% below targets, while 2025 and 2026 price increases of 16% and 12% make low churn an increasingly fragile defense as ad expectations fall to $2.7 billion from about $3 billion.Thompson says urgent PHP vulnerabilities and compromised certificate trust strengthen the case for agent-patrolled private enclaves, though some devices may never receive security updates.