Harry Stebbings

Instinct’s $1B raise at a $10B valuation pairs minute-long latency with compute costs: 10M users paying $10 monthly imply a $1.2B annual burden.Jason’s reversal—from recommending the round to refusing it—alongside Miro’s $1.3B sale from $17.5B and Canva’s slowdown from 30% to 20%, highlights SaaS’s shift from revenue multiples to EBITDA.

Satya Nadella

Persistent AI agents create a new insider-risk category: even mundane enterprise tasks could trigger reward hacking or falsified books.Behavioral monitoring, full auditability, and causal or semantic verification are the proposed response, while cheaper models shift margin toward applications and middleware.Microsoft’s “use all but be independent of all” strategy makes interoperability an adoption catalyst, but 7–8% broad-based GDP growth and social license remain tests.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Gwynne Shotwell × Elon Musk

Cross-lab AI peer review would give competitors pre-release API access to run logged safety harnesses, making distillation visible and raising reputational and product-liability stakes.Compute rental has become SpaceX’s “heck of a business,” with no drop in demand, while Starlink penetration remains 1.5–2%.Terafab and Starship’s flight 15 tower-catch attempt are milestones amid Taiwan supply risk and infrastructure constraints.

Jensen Huang × President Trump

Jensen Huang cites failed forecasts on radiology, AI-generated code and entry-level jobs to challenge doomsday narratives, while arguing that AI incidents so far call for root-cause engineering and independent evaluation rather than sweeping regulation.With 80% of AI-native companies receiving $400 billion in recent venture funding using open models, NVIDIA is building infrastructure bottlenecks as Jensen predicts China will reach advanced lithography by 2030, leaving commercialization, lab controls and data-center execution to monitor.

Jason Yanowitz × Matthew Prince

Automated traffic has already surpassed human traffic, and Prince says agentic traffic could reach 1,000 times human traffic in five years, challenging ad-funded models.Cloudflare is pursuing a micropayments rail targeting roughly 10 million transactions per second, but regulation, capacity and preserving free access remain unresolved.

Harry Stebbings × Cliff Weitzman

Speechify’s owned-GPU strategy compares $35,000–50,000 annual H100 rental with roughly $30,000 to buy, potentially lowering compute costs.NVIDIA’s deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo and Goldman Sachs could create a liquid secondary market and price floor through buybacks up to 25% of GPU value.Weitzman calls missing B2B his biggest strategic mistake; Simba 3.2 costs $10 per million characters versus ElevenLabs’ $100, but execution against an “unstoppable” rival remains unresolved.

Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA delivered a record $96.2B quarter and guided to 70% growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028, with end-user demand and share loss the key risks.The reported near-$12.9B Hugging Face deal, not finalized or confirmed, would reinforce open-source compute economics and NVIDIA’s push to win every segment.Agents are becoming software buyers, supporting the cases for Clay at $7B and Linear at $2.5B, while cyber exposure and reward hacking remain unresolved.

张小珺 × 曾鸣

曾鸣判断，行业正从基础设施转向Agent应用；OpenAI与Anthropic大概率不会成为原生应用时代的大赢家，模型公司终局更可能是强监管下的AI云寡头。token标准化与OpenClaw显示基础设施成熟，但入口仍有缺口；统一Agent标准与复杂任务应用仍待验证。

庄明浩

模型正在吞噬抠图、扩图等单点功能，但美图自研模型生成了最终交付内容的96%，第三方API/token成本仅占收入个位数，展示了从功能走向复杂场景结果交付的路径。Figma市值较峰值跌超88%、Canva估值降至约320亿美元且下调2026年营收增速预期，生产力业务能否成为美图主曲线、并在高ARPU海外市场持续留存付费仍待验证。

Harry Stebbings × Aaron Katz

Aaron Katz rejects the AI-bubble thesis, citing unprecedented adoption and revenue acceleration.ClickHouse grew from zero to over 500 in revenue, with over 99% gross retention and over 200% net dollar retention.AI customers remain below 12% of revenue, but agentic applications’ low switching costs leave durability unresolved.