我们向5位 AI 创业者送出200万美元 | MOONSHOTS Live
Peter DiamandisSalim IsmailDave BlundinAlexander Wissner-GrossCathie Wood
- Peter Diamandis 宣布,教育到就业的社会契约“已经结束”,并提出用创业取而代之。 找到一个有意义、可解决、且本不该存在的问题,切换到 AI 思维和创业者思维,然后打造自己的公司、职业和未来。
- Build with Gemini XPRIZE 要求团队找到一个影响10万人的有意义问题,并从零开始在90天内打造一家盈利、产生收入的公司。 Diamandis 表示,更大的使命是证明这一模式可行,让其他人能够复制。
- Cathie Wood 将一人 AI 初创公司视为毕业生面对疲弱初级岗位招聘时的务实对冲。 她建议毕业生一边继续参加面试,一边创办一家没有员工的公司。Diamandis 直接摆出下行风险——90%的初创公司会失败,10%会成功——并称这是一张“看涨期权”;他补充说,如果公司做起来,创始人就可以跟雇主说再见。
- Wood 认为 AI 有望提升创业成功率,并称医疗健康是其最具深度的应用领域。 她估计,药物研发成本可从包含失败项目在内的24亿美元降至6亿—7亿美元,研发周期则可从13年缩短至8年或更短。
- Palmer Luckey 提议将催产素给药纳入婚姻咨询。 他将这一想法与对生育主义及美国出生率的痴迷联系起来,并称催产素安全、不受监管,属于一个自我强化的联结回路。
- Logan Kilpatrick 认为,如今 AI 进步的硬约束已从算力转向数据。 在“数千亿美元”投入已为计算和基础设施完成去风险后,他看好独特数据集和细分领域专业知识带来的机会;他表示,即便是头部数据公司,估值也约为100亿美元。
- Mark Pincus 会围绕 AI agents 重做社交媒体,并将用户能在上面花多短时间游戏化。 Palmer Luckey 对这一批评作了限定:无休止刷屏具有腐蚀性,但细分社区可以把有意识投入的线上时间变成“高热量”活动。
- 5位决赛选手分别瞄准教育、公司设立、非正式劳动、3D创作和墨西哥增值税抵扣回收。 Dodo Prep 以10万美元获第五名,Launch Bridge 位列第四,MyFixit 第三,Tessian Sierra 以20万美元获第二,Polyform 以50万美元夺冠,拿到“未稀释的初始资本”。
1. 新的社会契约:围绕使命构建
Diamandis 的前提是:从高中到大学、再到一份稳定工作的路径“已经结束”。他将“热情”定义为你喜欢做的事,将“使命”定义为你喜欢做且能帮助他人的事。替代方案是找到一个真实存在、本不该存在、且可以解决的问题。
在 Build with Gemini XPRIZE 中,Google 是合作方,参赛团队必须解决一个影响10万人的有意义问题,并从零开始在90天内创建一家盈利、产生收入的公司。“这里的使命不是这些具体公司”,而是教会并激励更多人复制这一模式。
2. AI让创业成为职业对冲
Wood 给失业毕业生的建议很务实:一边继续参加面试,一边创办一家没有员工的 AI 公司。她引用了平均6个月、3个月中位数的失业持续时间,认为即使创业失败,这段经历也能证明主动性。
Diamandis 直接摆出下行风险——“90%的初创公司会失败”——并称这是一张“看涨期权”。Wood 认同 AI 可能改变这一成功率结构。如果公司做起来,Diamandis 补充说,创始人就可以跟雇主说再见。
Wood 表示,医疗健康是 AI 最具深度的应用领域,并预计 AI 可将药物研发成本从包含失败项目在内的24亿美元降至6亿—7亿美元,同时将研发周期从13年缩短至8年或更短。
Luckey 提议在婚姻咨询中使用催产素,动机来自他对生育主义和美国出生率的痴迷。他认为伴侣联结机制已经得到充分理解,并称催产素安全、不受监管,属于一个“自我强化的回路”。这些是他对相关生物学机制和监管机会的说法。
3. 专有数据成为稀缺的 AI 资产
Kilpatrick 认为,各大实验室已经知道如何降低 AI 持续进步的风险,巨额投入也已经为算力、数据中心及相关基础设施完成去风险。“持续进步真正的瓶颈是数据。”
他的可投资切口,是聚合独特数据集,或运用细分领域专业知识,让模型在各个领域都具备能力。生态仍处于早期:他说,最好的公司估值约为100亿美元,而且“很可能很快变得非常、非常有价值”。
4. 更好的社交产品,应以减少消费为目标
Pincus 回忆,社交媒体起初像一个“神奇的鸡尾酒会”,后来却变得有毒,成了对“热量”的糟糕消耗。他会用 AI、agents 和游戏机制重做社交产品,目标不是最大化用户参与,而是让用户尽可能少花时间。
Luckey 的限定很重要:无休止地“刷到死”,与有意识地访问一个软件定义无线电社区并不相同。之后一名参与者表示,X 提供了大量价值,但估计这些价值只来自其在 X 上约10%的时间。
5. 5位决赛选手将 AI 转化为细分运营业务
Dodo Prep 提供个性化辅导;Launch Bridge 承诺在72小时内完成 LLC、网站和收款设置;MyFixit 瞄准尼日利亚的非正式手工业经济;Polyform 生成可定制的3D资产;Tessian Sierra 则通过准备、审计和提交申报表,自动化墨西哥增值税抵扣回收。
Dodo Prep 以10万美元获第五名,Launch Bridge 位列第四,MyFixit 第三,Tessian Sierra 以20万美元获第二,Polyform 以50万美元夺冠。获胜团队将奖金称作“未稀释的初始资本”,随即又自嘲称税收仍会稀释它。
完整逐字稿
1. Introducing the Build with Gemini XPRIZE
We are going to present the Build with Gemini XPRIZE. What is it? Many people are worried about work, and they are concerned about the old social contract: do well in high school, go to college, get a degree, and get a job. This, to quote my dear friend Alexander Wissner-Gross, is done.
Here is the new social contract: find something you care deeply about. That’s your destination. I define passion as something you love to do. I define purpose as something you love to do that helps other people. It’s that simple.
If you don’t know your purpose, your job is to find it. Once you understand that someday you’ll discover a problem that exists, shouldn’t exist, and can be solved, put on your AI hat, put on your entrepreneur hat, and build it. You can take responsibility for your life and create your own business, your own career, and your own future.
This is a challenge we have completed. We reached out to our friends at Google—God bless them all. They have been extraordinary partners and friends for decades. We said, “Okay, let’s do an XPRIZE competition where we challenge teams to find a problem that affects 100,000 people. It has to be something meaningful. Then we’ll give you 90 days, from a clean slate, to build a profitable, revenue-generating company.”
The mission here is not these specific companies. The mission here is to show that it is possible—to teach people and inspire people to do it themselves. I’m going to introduce our judges. Let’s start the video.
Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Palmer Luckey back to the stage.
2. Meet the Judges
Hey, buddy, you’re back. Peter, I support everyone. You know something about starting companies.
Okay, our next judge is Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of investment firm ARK Invest.
It’s really interesting how artificial intelligence is changing our research and how much more we can do now. We have risk-averse investors, certainly in the institutional world, but less so in the retail world. Bitcoin, in our opinion, will be the most important crypto asset, especially as we move toward genetic AI, where machines will buy from other machines.
Please welcome the legendary Cathie Wood to the stage.
This is Cathie Wood, everyone. Hi, Cathie. Good morning. Cathie just flew in from Portugal last night. Thank you very much, Cathie.
Okay, our next judge is Logan Kilpatrick, product lead for Google AI Studio and the Gemini API for Google DeepMind.
From day one, the goal of creating this technology was to use AI to accelerate science and ultimately help humanity. I think we have the best research team in the entire world.
How many of the AI products in the ecosystem are actually personalized to appeal to the people who use them? Hopefully, people will create their first programs. There are so many subtle nuances to getting it right, and the model nailed it.
Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Logan Kilpatrick.
Logan, thank you very much, and thank you, Gemini, for your support on this.
Okay, our final judge. Founder and CEO Mark Pincus joins us now. He is a serial entrepreneur and technology investor, best known as the founder of Zynga.
We must separate our winning instincts from our losing ideas. My job is to work with great product-development teams on great products. What’s actually better is that 10 out of 10 existing users of this product would say, “Yes.”
“The more things change, the more they remain the same.” I think that, as a culture, we will move from consumer to generative.
Welcome to the stage, the amazing Mark Pincus.
Give it up for Mark Pincus. Hey, buddy.
Thank you, Mark.
So, Logan, you’re in the shoes of our chief judge. You should move on and keep the pace. After our 5 finalists perform, you will go backstage for a judges’ discussion. I’ll come back to show you that we had 20 more winning teams.
Let me pass the word on to you.
I like it. Perfectly.
Peter, we’re starting with questions. Do we still want to start with questions about what we’re going to talk about?
3. If You Had to Start From Zero Today
It’s true. I wanted to warm it up. Thanks for reminding me.
If you were starting from scratch today, what would you do? You just graduated from school, some bet of yours ruined you, and you have to start all over again. There was no network, and there was no wealth. What would you do today?
I would try to end the tragedy of divorce by dosing oxytocin for marriage counseling. We have a good understanding of mammalian pair bonding. Many people want to stay together, and most people who don’t want to stay together should stay together, especially for the sake of their children.
We can see that people think SSRIs are normal, even though they’re not. If they are, then oxytocin dosing could be normal, too.
I’ve heard about that. This is really critical, isn’t it? People seem to drift apart over time.
Oxytocin is safe—that’s for sure. We use it for mothers and babies. It is a bonding hormone. This is the chemical responsible for pair bonding in mammals.
There are things you can do to increase its absorption, and it is very well understood. It’s also completely unregulated, which is great. Unregulated spaces are much easier to make.
You can buy a kilogram of oxytocin at Sigma Aldrich Chemical Supply right now. If you do, maybe you won’t die alone.
Mark, are you involved in this?
Yes. I could have used that 8 years ago.
It’s never too late. Call her.
But I find it absolutely fascinating. Wait, a 50% divorce rate? I just placed an order with Sigma Aldrich Chemical Supply.
I think we need to talk.
I love it. This is pure biology. It’s used for women who don’t bond with their children, and now for women who don’t connect with their husbands. It is also used for children with various neurological problems. Some children with autism who struggle with paranoia.
The coolest thing is that it’s a self-reinforcing loop. We understand this perfectly. Unlike most drugs, it does not create chemical dependence. In fact, it frees you from chemical dependency.
What inspired this idea, by the way?
Just an obsession with natalism and the birth rate in America.
Surprisingly.
Surprisingly.
4. Cathie Wood on AI and Entrepreneurship
Cathie, get over it. You’ll have to repeat the question. The issue is that you are all post-economic. If you had to start from scratch right now, what would you do? What would you create? What field would you go into, or what kind of company would you start?
I work in an industry where the world is our oyster, so I get paid to teach, and I believe that AI is going to make us super-smart. Of course, I would use AI the way we use it now.
I often get asked this question about unemployment: “Wouldn’t that be terrible?” I think we’re going to have an entrepreneurial explosion. I know I’m singing your song, Peter, but I’m just telling these young people because it’s true.
Entry-level positions aren’t getting filled like they used to. People who graduate from school are unemployed, and the average length of unemployment is 6 months. The median is 3 months. What I tell these young people is that it is a blessing in disguise.
You should start your own company with artificial intelligence and no employees, and keep going through interviews. I think you’ll get a job very quickly because you’ll take the initiative in trying to solve a problem in the world. You will use artificial intelligence, and everyone will need to import a lot of talent that works with AI carriers.
Or better yet, your company takes off and you tell them to leave.
That’s what I—
That’s right, but you have to be realistic. Ninety percent of all startups fail. Only 10% succeed. So you are absolutely right that this is a call option.
Do you think this number is changing in the era of AI success metrics?
I think so. I think that will change. Everything—our work, for example, in drug development—will be affected. AI will reduce the number of failures and reduce the cost of discovering and developing a new drug from $2.4 billion, including failures, to $600–700 million. The time will be reduced from 13 years to 8 years or less.
I think healthcare is the deepest application. I would probably advise people who are interested in health and biology to go there, and to go there with AI.
Perfect. Logan, what’s your answer?
5. Where the Biggest AI Opportunities Are
I think there is a huge opportunity. I spend all my time thinking about how we accelerate progress in building better AI models, and I’m sure there are a lot of people in the audience who are thinking about that, too.
The opportunity, as I phrase it, is that we have reduced the risks associated with continuing to advance AI. We know how to do that. I think all the labs know how to do this.
In the last 3 years, we’ve de-risked computing by using hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars, even billions of dollars, space data centers, all of that. The last part of this, which is currently the real bottleneck for continued progress, is data.
You’re seeing this massive explosion of the data ecosystem and industry, and it’s still very early days. Even the best companies in this market are valued at around $10 billion and are likely to become much, much more valuable very, very soon.
And then you see the same wide variety of startups and people bringing this really niche, interesting domain expertise to help accelerate that, because models have to be good at everything. So I think there’s a huge opportunity that you can take advantage of, for example, with the YC startups. The percentage of YC startups in the current class that are data-driven is extremely high.
I don’t know what that number is. Aggregate unique data and then sell this package. That’s right.
Mark, I’m still interested to hear what you’re going to say.
6. Reinventing Social Media with AI
At the risk of sounding very obvious, I will still do what you expect me to do. I would reimagine and reinvent our online social experience, use artificial intelligence and agents, and gamify how little time you can spend there, because I feel like it’s so toxic and such a bad use of calories.
That’s so much noise for an alarm. Palmer, do you agree?
I feel like, as one of the first people on social media, it started out as a magical cocktail party, and it became something that I don’t think anyone feels good about. Nobody is proud.
I mean, how much time do you spend on Instagram or whatever? Palmer, you nod your head.
I think, on average, you’re right. I also think I’ve managed to build a pretty good feed, and there are a lot of good online communities for people who do very specific, very niche things that only work because they’re on these major social platforms.
And so I like the idea of keeping people away from the app as much as possible through endless scrolling—scrolling to death. But, as a guy who grew up on phpBB forums and saw many of those communities move to social media, this is a deliberate waste of time.
It’s like, “Oh, I want to see what people are doing with software-defined radios these days.” Luckily, I belong to a group of Southern California software-defined radio enthusiasts, and that’s what’s good about it.
So I think the more we can move from bad things to high-calorie things, the better.
Yes, me too. I will say that X is my social network. I follow you there, and I get a ton of value out of it, but, to be honest, I think that value is probably about 10% of the time I’m on X.
7. Meet the Five Finalists
And the nominees for this year’s Gemini XPRIZE are Dodo Prep, an AI tutor that turns any learning material into personalized learning, adapting to each student’s knowledge gaps and progress; Launch Bridge, which uses artificial intelligence to take an entrepreneur from an idea to a fully formed business with an LLC, website, and payment setup in less than 72 hours; MyFixit, which is building a TaskRabbit for Nigeria’s informal craft economy, helping workers find opportunities and get paid securely; Polyform, which creates 3D assets with artificial intelligence that anyone can change in color and size, remix, and customize; and Tessian Sierra, which is using AI to help Mexican businesses reclaim VAT tax credits by automating the complex process of preparing, auditing, and submitting their returns.
Five teams are using AI to solve real-world problems and create businesses that can make a difference.
Do we have one of those giant checks? We have five checks. This is my job.
8. Fifth and Fourth Place Winners
Are you guys ready? I think we start with fifth place. Yes, we’ll start with fifth. The fifth-place winner is Dodo Prep. Come out, Dodo Prep. Oh, he can’t. Join us online, through the internet.
By the way, if I may for a second, we have an Oscar for optimism here. I like it. Our incredible designer, Joel Cave, created, designed, and manufactured it. He is wonderful. I want one like that.
So, Navid, congratulations. You get a check for $100,000, and this trophy that we will send you. Congratulations, Navid.
Wow. Thank you.
Thank you, Navid. Thank you. Welcome. And we’ll send it to India.
In fourth place, Launch Bridge. Come out, Launch Bridge. Congratulations, guys. Congratulations. We’ll take pictures.
Peter, I’ll leave you there. Come on, Jen. This is your Oscar and a book—your book. Congratulations. And your trophy. Where is the trophy? The trophy is over there. Do you have it?
Enjoy, gentlemen. I hope this investment brings you success. Congratulations, guys.
9. Third and Second Place Winners
Are you ready? In third place, MyFixit. Come on, MyFixit. Congratulations. Come forward. That’s it. Congratulations. Come to the center. Photos right here, guys. Congratulations.
We hope this will help MyFixit dominate. Congratulations.
Before announcing the second- and first-place winners, we want both teams to come up.
Yes, both teams should go out, because it’s obvious as soon as you announce the second and first places.
Yes. Tessian Sierra and Polyform, please join us onstage. Stand up, Tessian, on Zoom. We can take a look. Hopefully he’s still here. Here he is. Edgar.
Either one of you is second or first. I need a drumroll.
The second-place winner is Tessian Sierra. Bring the checks. You’re welcome.
And now you can hire yourself. This is madness. Look at this.
Okay, Tessian Edgar, congratulations. You won $200,000. I don’t know how much that is in pesos, but here it is. Nevertheless, congratulations.
Wow.
And great. Perfect. Come out, friend. First of all, look at this trophy.
Yes, thank you. Wow. This is a nice trophy. Wow.
And $500,000. Congratulations.
10. Polyfork Wins First Place
Congratulations. Undiluted initial capital. This is the best kind.
It is being taxed. It will be diluted.
Wow.
Come out, friend. Come out. Congratulations. It will be diluted by taxes.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your time. I’m grateful for your friendship, all of you. Let’s support our judges: Palmer, Cathie, Logan, and Mark.
Can I take a quick picture with you for a second?