0xhopydoc

Overview of Ethena

• building the synthetic dollar w/ internet native yield; the peg of USDe (its native stablecoin) is supported through delta hedging derivatives against protocol held collateral
• yield of the stablecoin USDe is generated through a) native ETH emissions + b) funding rate from shorting ETH on centralized trading venues; and currently yield of staked USDe (sUSDe) is 4.4%
• token value accrual of $ENA comes from a) locking up of $ENA to boost potential future rewards + b) restaking for economic security to secure cross chain transfers of USDe

Overview LayerZero leveraging oracles and relayers to effectively send cross chain messages; in which oracles disseminates block information and relayers confirms the authenticity of messages sent and under v1 relayers are run by LayerZero Labs themselves LayerZero v2 enables the integration of external validation models (e.g. Axelar or Wormhole); and enable customisable security model depending on application layer use cases; which positioned the protocol as the transport layer in all crypto rather than the verification layer shoutout to Michael’s previous pitch on $AXL (link); some points are taken from that post to date LayerZero has integrated w/ >80 chains ranging from EVM based chains and Ethereum layer 2s and 3s to weird ghost chains and w/ >53k applications including Stargate and Merkly as two of the top most used omni chain applications Investment Thesis LayerZero w/ farming activities exhausting still averages >10x daily cross chain messages (i.e. ~40k) comparing to Wormhole and Axelar (i.e. both ~4k daily messages) which appears to be a clear dislocation of traction versus valuation competitors have their own fundamental design problems which gives LayerZero an extended lead in the cross chain messaging race w/ existing traction + lindy effects; which makes $ZRO a more preferred asset to own if institutional money were to express their view on interoperability LayerZero already had integrated w/ >80 chains + >50k omnichain applications; Stargate only takes up ~10% of daily messages sent and if we stripped that out from the traction LayerZero still leads both Axelar and Wormhole by a lot Axelar requires +0.3% validator inflation w/ each additional EVM chain support and currently the annual inflation stands at >11% w/ >14 external chains; and in order to scale to LayerZero’s level that would equates to >30% inflation making $AXL tough to own Wormhole usage still primarily focuses on Portal Bridge (i.e. their “canonical bridge) w/ >50% messages routed to facilitate that; and Wormhole Gateway validates Axelar’s design but also means they are late to the game lagging at least 2 years behind psychological valuation floor where LayerZero Labs raised their previous round at 3bn led by a16z; token currently trading at <3bn gives attractive risk reward “hated rally” as given by how industrial farmers not liking how the LayerZero team actively hunt down sybils + having to pay to claim - previously we have seen $SEI airdrop farmers being disappointed w/ their airdrop allocations but it did a >5x w/ the parallel execution narrative and I see a good possibility of this happening again Catalysts $ZRO airdrop farmer selling exhausting; the underperformance post airdrop is a hybrid of market being miserable + $ZRO selling flows dominating and this would end as more take profit $ZRO utility announced; the token use case is still unclear to me and there are some speculation on how $ZRO could be staked in the network to offer cryptoeconomic security few months ago - this could introduce token supply sink to the system the “hated rally” - as mentioned above Valuation $ZRO currently trades at 2.7bn FDV w/ ~40k daily cross chain messages; if this were to re rate to multiple $W or $AXL is currently trading at it could be 3-5x outcome $AXL averages >4k daily cross chain messages trading at 630mn FDV; and $W trades at >3.3bn FDV w/ also >4k daily cross chain messages (if we take away # of Pyth messages which apparently skews the messages number count; consider those as low value usage given Pyth price feed does not “facilitate” any cross chain transactions) Risks LayerZero hate continues - love what Bryan is doing to screw airdrop farmers out and I do think it’s net positive to the industry in the longer run; but if the “villian” image sticks that could result negatively to LayerZero the counter argument to this would be that most LayerZero integration is done on the application level; it is tough to boycott LayerZero actively on a large scale w/ >50k applications integrating their tech * lack of “narrative” to kick off the “hated rally” - interoperability seems to be an outdated narrative as it has been telegraphed for so long and related tokens barely budged; and in the $SEI case it comes w/ the parallel execution narrative which in $ZRO case that seems to be lacking

Overview of Notcoin Notcoin is a tap to earn game which achieves virality with its simple onboarding and social elements; users could use “referral links” with friends to both receive $NOT as rewards + “squads” to create competitiveness within the same specific Telegram channel to increase stickiness Notcoin achieves more user traction than any crypto application has ever seen; collectively 35mn users w/ 5mn DAU at its peak (in comparison Axie DAU peaked at 2mn / Stepn peaked at 800k DAU) Notcoin also emerged as the #4 largest channel in the entire Telegram channel w/ >5mn members and 1/3 Telegram Premium users are already involved in the tapping game Notcoin makes money through signing business / incubation deals with projects within the TON ecosystem; and have collectively made 3mn USDT through “redirecting” traffic + “making” projects to “acquire” / “burn” $NOT for collaboration + accepting $NOT as payment Notcoin’s next phase would feature launching a new game w/ simple social mechanics in conjunction with an external game producers w/ expected timeline of 2 to 3 weeks + launching 3 projects (i.e. trading bot / questing platform / launchpad) Investment Thesis widely misunderstood by the market as a “tapping game” or “meme” - but shapes up to be a strong and effective distribution channel to the entire Telegram DAU base previously channeled users to Catizen AI which has already seen >600k DAU now; and according to the team 4 more campaigns with similar commercial agreement has been lined up in the coming months another way to think about the distribution channel is that - imagine >35mn users having some $NOT dust in their wallet which could effectively nudge them to try out new applications w/ usable currencies that worth some money also according to the team >90% have claimed $NOT meaning they stay connected with the platform after the initial minting phase; and what’s not the unclaimed portion would be burnt after some time market perception as a “reward token” without value accrual; but more “utility” / “moneyness” / “value” being attached through burning / staking / acceptance of payment method $NOT being staked / held gives platinum / gold tier better benefits in the upcoming 3 products the team is launching (i.e. launchpad / trading bot / questing platform) collaboration involved the burning of $NOT tokens - Catizen AI burnt 5mn $NOT / >1% of total token supply sent to TON founder which he pledged not to sell moneyness as a payment method - Catizen AI / TONKeeper takes $NOT as money; which more similar treatment should happen as Notcoin scales as a distribution platform most liquid token to gain exposure to the TON ecosystem which most liquid managers might have missed the run - $TON being one of the few assets that outperforms ETH / SOL YTD; partly driven by Pantera publicly underwriting the investment + only TON token listed on Binance it’s also a meme! Catalysts running narrative of "low float high FDV tokens bad” - $NOT has 78% distributed to all “miners” on day one which is the exact opposite of what the market does not like “meme” - meme pump $NOT pump new social front end game launching - $NOT is still “reasonably valued” in my opinion given the widespread distribution it could potentially have; and the market does not have much visibility to the next phase and therefore has been pricing it that way Telegram IPO - could happen early 2025 Valuation leading meme on each chain trades at ~5% of the base layer’s valuation - DOGE at 23bn / SHIB at 25bn while ETH trading at 460bn; while $WIF at 3.2bn / $BONK at 3.6bn when $SOL trades at <96bn if we think about the peak of legacy memecoins - $DOGE peaked at 90bn / $SHIB peaked at 70bn; and as a function of ETH’s FDV $DOGE was <20% and the latter is >13% at that moment $NOT is not <3% of $TON’s FDV; and that could be 5-7x trade if $NOT emerges as the leading "memecoin” on TON blockchain if we benchmark DOGE / SHIB at their peak Risks $TON market attention currently at its peak - a function of Pantera publicly endorsing which tides could turn very quickly the next game could be a flop - even the team previously shipped the tapping game and understand how social mechanics could work “meme-ness” stripping away with the mentioned roadmap Execution it’s executable on Binance

Overview of IoTeX IoTeX launched as an EVM compatible IoT focused layer 1 back in 2016 and to date there are >230 applications built including DeFi / some GameFi / and 15 native DePIN projects; and the network currently has >30mn in TVL IoTeX launched a separate computation layer in 2023 which collects raw data from tamper proof devices through an off chain computation middleware; leveraging a network of nodes to receive and process data from real world data publishers. ZK proofs could then be generated and be dispatched to supported chains to trigger behaviors. w3bstream connected >1.6mn devices with >30 DePIN projects all over the world; and leading DePIN projects including Helium / Helium 5G / Akash / Filecoin / Hivemapper / DIMO / WiFi Maps are already adopting the technology to verify information sent by real world physical devices Thesis DeFi ecosystem kicking off on IoTeX: >15 DePIN projects building on IoTeX now natively; out of which 2 have native tokens on the chain and more projects were expected to launch native tokens on IoTeX including Inferix / Network3 / PowerPod in the coming quarters which could potentially lead to higher “demand for security” IoTeX 2.0: founder has been hinting the launch of IoTeX 2.0 and value accrual to $IOTX; and briefly spoke about the importance of the w3bstream middleware layer which has already connected >1.6mn real world devices for >30 leading DePIN projects as mentioned value unlocking of w3bstream: monetizing per data emissions of >0.02 USD and w/ 3 to 5 daily emission from the 1.6mn devices (and increasing); annualized top line fee of >35mn; otherwise w3bstream to be valued as an DePIN specific oracle and securing FDV of >10bn (excluding FIL) Valuation layer 1 w/ 500mn FDV as of now seems to be reasonable with conventional DeFi metrics (such as TVL / # of transactions) as of now compared to some of the low float high FDV vapourware which trades at >5bn FDV expecting TVL growing as native assets on chain grow given more TGE of DePIN projects; w/ 5 to 10 projects of average FDV of 20mn to 30mn this should at least pump up the valuation to at least >1bn range of the chain itself also expecting computation layer being priced into the token valuation depending on how the market values it with (i.e. fees or see it as an oracle); given the current metrics and product market fit w/ strong moat this could add at least >1bn FDV Catalyst and Risks announcement of IoTeX 2.0 which was supposed to happen shortly after Bitcoin halving; but was postponed given current market condition and is expected to happen in May launch of Peaq Network might be a risk to IoTeX; but to the upside it brings the market attention to DePIN focused layer 1 or DePIN in general * staking of $IOTX for w3bstream might already be priced in by the market since it was mentioned in the whitepaper in 2023; but what the market does not know / mislook might be the wide coverage of w3bstream as of now; which might be function of that being a middleware layer