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Thread GuyEN · 45 min

GoodAlexander - The AI Trade Is Topping, Google’s Search Problem and the Long Coins Trade

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Anthropic’s inference growth slowed from 140% to 45% quarter on quarter, putting frontier AI valuations at risk if Fable 5.5 fails to reaccelerate Q4 demand.A cheaper model matching Opus could compress adjusted inference gross margins from 50–60% to 10–15%, while AI search weakens Google’s monopoly pricing as search falls below 50% of revenue.CoreWeave’s blended financing can be manageable while GPU rental rates hold, but expanding capacity into slowing inference demand risks saturating the market with tokens.