Empire

Hyperliquid’s move to roughly $82 followed Trump’s/CFTC compliance comments, while revenue fell from roughly $300M in Q3 2025 to $156M in Q2 2026.U.S. institutional access and a larger TAM support the upside case, but HIP-3’s 60–65% volume share at 10% of crypto-market fees and falling fees remain key tensions.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Crypto trading is contracting even as stablecoins dominate earnings calls, with Robinhood volumes down 40% and Hyperliquid perp volume down 30%.Yano’s deal flow shows fintechs quietly moving infrastructure to stablecoins, while Visa’s related card volume rose 200% YoY across 160 programs.Value capture remains contested: Santi says Tempo has little flow, and Pump Fun’s $370M burn failed to lift its token.

Hormuz could take “easily 10%” of oil supply offline, while inelastic demand may underprice second-order Iran-conflict damage.STRC makes Saylor’s capital-stack end game central: its dividend may disappear before Strategy sells Bitcoin, while yield estimates are 14.5% and 25%.China’s hardware edge contrasts with Zhipu and MiniMax at $40–50B on under $100M revenue each; regulation and capital gatekeeping limit upside.

Iran-energy shock pushed oil from $70 to $116–120, leaving only one Fed cut priced.S&P’s official Hyperliquid perps add institutional validation; at $40, roughly $37B FDV and $140M in 90-day revenue support exchange-multiple comparisons, though Secret City data is unchecked.Tempo’s $5B valuation depends on Stripe’s BD motion, while MPP and Visa support a payments thesis exposed to weak evidence for agentic commerce.