Empire

Santiago Roel Santos × Rob

AI fatigue is reaching institutional LPs as router savings and cheaper open-source models threaten frontier-model pricing within 12 to 18 months.Robinhood’s $1.3B quarter and $12B of Chain DEX volume make it a key real-time gauge for capital rotation, while declining active accounts and uncertain chain winners keep tokenized-asset adoption unresolved.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Anthropic’s Fable was released around June 9 and blocked from export three or four days later, turning AI’s job-loss narrative into a regulatory and political liability.Jordy calls MicroStrategy panic way overblown as Saylor raises about $200M weekly, while Santi sees eventual Monte Carlo failure; open-source models and smart routing may matter more than privacy maximalism, but government restrictions remain an unresolved risk.

Agentic AI may make memory less cyclical: Micron rose 80%, Intel 85% and SanDisk about 50%, though oversupply remains a risk.Circle raised $222M for Arc at a reported $3B valuation, potentially avoiding Coinbase’s 50% net-interest-margin share, but token value capture remains disputed.Anthropic’s SPV crackdown threatens tokenized-equity exposure, with on-chain exposure reportedly near $400B versus roughly $900B.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Delphi is tactically long on Iran’s ceasefire, but Yan’s base case is that negotiations break down, while Jason urges defense.Iran potentially charging tanker tolls in Bitcoin or yuan could strengthen BTC’s neutral-store-of-value narrative, though the room called it mostly a headline.Possible SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs could compete for finite dry powder, while private/public marks warrant scrutiny.

Hormuz could take “easily 10%” of oil supply offline, while inelastic demand may underprice second-order Iran-conflict damage.STRC makes Saylor’s capital-stack end game central: its dividend may disappear before Strategy sells Bitcoin, while yield estimates are 14.5% and 25%.China’s hardware edge contrasts with Zhipu and MiniMax at $40–50B on under $100M revenue each; regulation and capital gatekeeping limit upside.