Empire

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos × Rob

AI-linked equities are repricing frontier-model financing, with 20–30% declines, routine 10% daily moves, and Anthropic’s apparent slowdown challenging the path from roughly $1 trillion of current capex to Jensen Huang’s roughly $4 trillion 2030 vision.CoreWeave debt near 15–16% and CDS implying roughly 60% default probability show how demand can be right while funding fails.Anthropic’s S-1 and neocloud refinancing are key tests as open-model substitution pressures margins.

CLARITY remains blocked by Trump-family ethics; absent progress by August 7, November passage looks difficult and failure could defer action two years.Robinhood captured roughly $816K from chain activity versus about $80K for Arbitrum and $1,500 for Ethereum, sharpening debate over ETH value capture.Base’s reset and Kobe’s expanded responsibilities may not be priced into Coinbase stock as it works to reconnect with crypto-native traders.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Hyperliquid’s SpaceX pre-IPO market has become a mainstream price oracle, with SpaceX around $2.1T versus indicated pricing of $1.5–1.75T and hedge funds using it to handicap the open.HYPE’s roughly $700M revenue and HIP-3’s 45% non-crypto volume support a differentiated growth case, but at roughly 60x run-rate earnings it is “fully valued”; CFTC regulation and the SpaceX IPO remain key tests.