20VC

Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA delivered a record $96.2B quarter and guided to 70% growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028, with end-user demand and share loss the key risks.The reported near-$12.9B Hugging Face deal, not finalized or confirmed, would reinforce open-source compute economics and NVIDIA’s push to win every segment.Agents are becoming software buyers, supporting the cases for Clay at $7B and Linear at $2.5B, while cyber exposure and reward hacking remain unresolved.

Harry Stebbings

OpenAI’s proposed 5% stake for the US government exposes a new permission economy, as Fable 5’s 19-day ban ended with pre-approval discussions still unresolved.The debate sits alongside late-cycle signals: Nvidia recognizes hardware revenue with put-back rights while Meta sells excess compute, leaving demand diffusion and downside management as key risks.

Harry Stebbings

DeepSeek’s $7.4B Series A at a $50B valuation, with the founder committing roughly 40% and investors receiving no rights, frames open source as state-backed competition.Open source is about 5x cheaper and targets the number-three closed model, while $750B of annual capex requires replacing roughly 7-8% of US labor with tokens; 2027 is the ROI test.

Harry Stebbings × Aravind Srinivas

Aravind’s headline call is that Micron could surpass Meta in value within 6-12 months because memory remains the bottleneck after prices rose 5x.His broader thesis shifts value from commoditized search and models to orchestration and token value per watt, while power constraints, China’s vertical integration, and a 20-30% DeepSeek-moment risk remain key watchpoints.

Harry Stebbings

Anthropic reached $5B in Q1 GAAP revenue, turned profitable early, and expanded gross margins to 70%, putting pressure on OpenAI to file its S1 before it is visibly left behind.Nvidia’s $81.6B quarter shifts attention to whether the next $2T of AI capex produces measurable ROI, while SpaceX’s $2T ambition still depends on the Elon premium and Colossus’s $1.25B monthly rental economics.

Harry Stebbings

Anthropic’s proposed $30 billion raise above $900 billion is roughly 18x June revenue, with about 3% dilution funding another year of compute commitments.Salesforce’s $300 million bill is about 4% of engineering spend but far below the 20% payroll share needed for trillion-dollar token markets, while SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion IPO tests retail-led price discovery amid AI-driven layoffs.

Harry Stebbings

Anthropic’s $200 billion Google commitment and SpaceX capacity purchase show compute scarcity accelerating model-market consolidation, while xAI may shift from buyer to supplier of idle infrastructure.Parallel agents could drive token demand far beyond Goldman’s 24x forecast, but enterprise budgets and productivity scrutiny remain decisive as model providers threaten prompt-sized applications and public markets punish weak guidance or excessive valuation.

Harry Stebbings × Jason

The proposed $60 billion Cursor/xAI-SpaceX tie-up is an IPO-contingent option, pairing Cursor’s coding revenue with xAI’s roughly $20 billion Colossus infrastructure and little revenue.SpaceX’s premium multiple makes Cursor comparatively cheap currency, but the deal’s closing risk and the panel’s split over whether $60 billion is a high-water mark or new floor keep AI M&A and Anthropic’s $1 trillion scarcity price in focus.

Harry Stebbings

Mythos turns vulnerability discovery from rifle-paced expertise into autonomous, machine-gun scanning across codebases, supporting higher defensive spending rather than a cybersecurity selloff.Public software faces a harsher test: unless AI agents are good enough to sell independently, moats preserve customers without reaccelerating growth, while Amazon’s $20 billion Trainium business pressures NVIDIA mainly through AWS’s internal substitution.

Harry Stebbings × Travis Kalanick

Nvidia’s $1 trillion demand headline added little new information, while GTC’s bigger signal is that unprecedented AI capex may continue for four or five years, with Rory assigning a 30% probability that it does not.The upside depends on inference scaling and token demand, but falling token prices, compute-driven layoffs, Anduril’s $20B contract, grim seed math, Travis Kalanick’s return and Adobe’s leadership vacuum leave major competitive and execution risks to monitor.