SHOW DIRECTORY
20VC
The Twenty Minute VC interviews leading venture capitalists and company founders, hosted by Harry Stebbings.
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Instinct Raising $1B at $10B & Meta Launches Muse | Miro Sells for $1.36B After a $17.5B Valuation
Instinct’s $1 billion round at a $10 billion valuation raises the bar for defensible economics before compute costs overwhelm the company.Miro’s sale to Bending Spoons for roughly $1.35 billion after a $17.5 billion valuation shows positive cash flow cannot prevent late-stage SaaS repricing, while Mistral’s €3 billion round underscores AI’s European sovereignty agenda.
Meta's Muse tops charts; Menlo's AI bubble alarm; Factory at $5B
Meta's Muse, called the first real ChatGPT competitor, pairs autonomous agents with a free consumer LLM and added roughly $100B to Meta's market cap.Jev targets 20% of LLM API spend at one-fifth the price, potentially turning $20B into $4B of revenue.OpenAI's projected $278B net burn and roughly $700B of CapEx keep capital intensity central to the AI trade.
UiPath's Dines: AI Needs Workflows, Not Just Models
Daniel Dines argues enterprise AI will diffuse process by process, because models retain context without being transformed by experience, while “millions of Einsteins” are not yet hireable people.The investable asset is the portable “map of work,” with AI designing deterministic, governed software around probabilistic models; UiPath’s 14% growth and production gaps in vibe-coded procurement tools leave timing and near-free human replacements as key risks.
20VC: Why 'Pacing the Frontier' Is BS; Instinct $10BN, Miro $1.35BN
Instinct’s $1B raise at a $10B valuation pairs minute-long latency with compute costs: 10M users paying $10 monthly imply a $1.2B annual burden.Jason’s reversal—from recommending the round to refusing it—alongside Miro’s $1.3B sale from $17.5B and Canva’s slowdown from 30% to 20%, highlights SaaS’s shift from revenue multiples to EBITDA.
Baylor CIO Morehead: velocity of cashback is what LPs actually want
David Morehead argues that fund multiples need a timeline: three six-year 3X growth-equity funds can compound to 27X versus 15X over 15–18 years.Baylor treats growth equity as its return engine, VC as diversification, and uses 10% market-decline increments while pricing cash at 8.5%.Software’s 50–60% selloff and permitted powered land offer differentiated opportunities, but permitting constraints and the unresolved AI adoption question remain key watchpoints.
20VC: Jensen's AGI Call, Astra & Fable 5.1, Cybercabs, Descartes Exit
Jensen Huang’s AGI claim meets Rory O’Driscoll’s skepticism, while Fable 5.1 delivers Jason Lemkin’s first step-function coding experience since last year’s “three dot” models.Instinct’s quickly cloned WhatsApp distribution, $2.5B pre-revenue valuation, Wonderful’s $5B repricing, and Anthropic’s reported roughly $6B deal reversal expose a market where rule-breaking and capital access remain central.
Speechify's Weitzman on owning GPUs, ElevenLabs, and the AI talent war
Speechify’s owned-GPU strategy compares $35,000–50,000 annual H100 rental with roughly $30,000 to buy, potentially lowering compute costs.NVIDIA’s deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo and Goldman Sachs could create a liquid secondary market and price floor through buybacks up to 25% of GPU value.Weitzman calls missing B2B his biggest strategic mistake; Simba 3.2 costs $10 per million characters versus ElevenLabs’ $100, but execution against an “unstoppable” rival remains unresolved.
20VC: NVIDIA's record quarter & Hugging Face buy; OpenAI cuts Cursor
NVIDIA delivered a record $96.2B quarter and guided to 70% growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028, with end-user demand and share loss the key risks.The reported near-$12.9B Hugging Face deal, not finalized or confirmed, would reinforce open-source compute economics and NVIDIA’s push to win every segment.Agents are becoming software buyers, supporting the cases for Clay at $7B and Linear at $2.5B, while cyber exposure and reward hacking remain unresolved.
ClickHouse's Katz: the AI bubble is wrong; durability is the risk
Aaron Katz rejects the AI-bubble thesis, citing unprecedented adoption and revenue acceleration.ClickHouse grew from zero to over 500 in revenue, with over 99% gross retention and over 200% net dollar retention.AI customers remain below 12% of revenue, but agentic applications’ low switching costs leave durability unresolved.
Factory's Reyes: Anthropic's $2T coding bet; 80–90% of neo-labs die
AI may be priced by outcomes rather than tokens, favoring open models for commodity work and proprietary post-trained specialists for high-value workflows.That challenges frontier-model TAM as Anthropic’s $2T framing depends on Claude Code amid fierce developer-tool competition, model lock-in and margin risk; watch whether the harness becomes the durable application layer.