20VC

Harry Stebbings × Jack Altman

Instinct’s $1 billion round at a $10 billion valuation raises the bar for defensible economics before compute costs overwhelm the company.Miro’s sale to Bending Spoons for roughly $1.35 billion after a $17.5 billion valuation shows positive cash flow cannot prevent late-stage SaaS repricing, while Mistral’s €3 billion round underscores AI’s European sovereignty agenda.

Harry Stebbings × Daniel Dines

Daniel Dines argues enterprise AI will diffuse process by process, because models retain context without being transformed by experience, while “millions of Einsteins” are not yet hireable people.The investable asset is the portable “map of work,” with AI designing deterministic, governed software around probabilistic models; UiPath’s 14% growth and production gaps in vibe-coded procurement tools leave timing and near-free human replacements as key risks.

Harry Stebbings

Instinct’s $1B raise at a $10B valuation pairs minute-long latency with compute costs: 10M users paying $10 monthly imply a $1.2B annual burden.Jason’s reversal—from recommending the round to refusing it—alongside Miro’s $1.3B sale from $17.5B and Canva’s slowdown from 30% to 20%, highlights SaaS’s shift from revenue multiples to EBITDA.

Harry Stebbings × Cliff Weitzman

Speechify’s owned-GPU strategy compares $35,000–50,000 annual H100 rental with roughly $30,000 to buy, potentially lowering compute costs.NVIDIA’s deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo and Goldman Sachs could create a liquid secondary market and price floor through buybacks up to 25% of GPU value.Weitzman calls missing B2B his biggest strategic mistake; Simba 3.2 costs $10 per million characters versus ElevenLabs’ $100, but execution against an “unstoppable” rival remains unresolved.

Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA delivered a record $96.2B quarter and guided to 70% growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028, with end-user demand and share loss the key risks.The reported near-$12.9B Hugging Face deal, not finalized or confirmed, would reinforce open-source compute economics and NVIDIA’s push to win every segment.Agents are becoming software buyers, supporting the cases for Clay at $7B and Linear at $2.5B, while cyber exposure and reward hacking remain unresolved.

Harry Stebbings × Aaron Katz

Aaron Katz rejects the AI-bubble thesis, citing unprecedented adoption and revenue acceleration.ClickHouse grew from zero to over 500 in revenue, with over 99% gross retention and over 200% net dollar retention.AI customers remain below 12% of revenue, but agentic applications’ low switching costs leave durability unresolved.

Harry Stebbings × Eno Reyes

AI may be priced by outcomes rather than tokens, favoring open models for commodity work and proprietary post-trained specialists for high-value workflows.That challenges frontier-model TAM as Anthropic’s $2T framing depends on Claude Code amid fierce developer-tool competition, model lock-in and margin risk; watch whether the harness becomes the durable application layer.

Harry Stebbings × Rory

SpaceX’s all-stock Cursor takeover, completed within a week and carrying a breakup fee, highlights AI M&A’s currency and clearance advantages while testing premium pricing against forward revenue.Stripe’s OpenRouter bet monetizes routing complexity but faces model drift, while Workday’s take-private underscores system-of-record durability without guaranteed upsell; AI-budget ceilings and agentic roadmaps remain key risks.

Harry Stebbings × Jason Lemkin × Rory O’Driscoll

Canva’s 2026 growth outlook has fallen from 30% to roughly 20%, while agents may bypass prosumer tools without user churn, exposing a structural distribution risk.At roughly $4B ARR, Jason Lemkin sees $12B fair value if growth does not decelerate, but proving ChatGPT-cannibalization wrong—and monitoring AI serving costs—remains decisive.

Harry Stebbings × Avishai Abrahami

Wix’s $2.8 billion valuation implies Base44 alone may be worth $8 billion, while its ARR exceeds $150 million, suggesting markets may price AI disruption without separating copyable interfaces from trusted operational systems.Wix owns both packaged-software and vibe-coding paths, but Base44’s lower margins, weaker retention, expensive inference and unfinished hairdresser logic leave model-cost improvements and execution as key variables over the next two years.