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Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Bitcoin’s failure to clear $80K has Jonah turning short-term bearish, with a “quite high” probability of falling below $70K.Stocks migrating onchain through Lighter and Hyperliquid could leave Nasdaq behind, while $LAPTOP’s fall from $1.5B to about $630M highlights political-token extraction risk.

Avi Felman × Se

Crypto is rallying on debasement, social trading, and RWA theses, while FOMO’s on-chain HOOD trade suggests attention can precede revenue recognition.FOMO’s 5–10% daily growth and $4 million creator payouts support an organic network thesis, but 94.4% of users lost money and scale remains unproven; monitor Bitcoin’s six-month-to-one-year catalyst and whether meme markets get solved.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

MemeFi is rotating between stories rather than attracting a broad 2020–November 2021-style wave, while Robinhood Chain’s weekly volume rose from $500M to $1.5B.Jonah says value may accrue to FOMO, exchanges, Vlad Tenev, or underlying protocols rather than ordinary traders, leaving sub-1% sizing, multi-cycle durability, frontier-model productivity, and Iran’s Hormuz leverage as risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Evgeny Gokhberg

Evgeny Gokhberg argues his fund earns 11%–12% consistently by supplying the capital that DeFi platforms such as Uniswap lack, effectively performing banks’ lending and market-making roles on chain.Its edge is a probabilistic AAA-to-CCC risk framework and survival discipline, while tokenized stocks and tranching create new opportunity but AI-driven false positives, legacy OPSEC vulnerabilities, and forced selling remain risks to monitor.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Santiago Santos

Santiago Santos is winding down Inversion’s crypto thesis after finding Remitly and Wise “not making money” with no pricing power, while stablecoins remain a real dollar-rail use case.The pivot favors mandated, recurring cash flow such as critical-power servicing, where fragmented markets, emergency pricing and AI-enabled efficiency may support returns, while Inversion’s holdco structure protects judgment and capital discipline.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Jordi Alexander

Retail has largely exited crypto altcoins as unlock-driven selling pushes flows toward equities, sports betting, and prediction markets, while Selini trades SpaceX across crypto venues and hedges in tradfi.Predictable passive rebalancing and crypto-native funding markets create opportunity, but October 10 showed how leverage and non-dollar collateral can turn rare volatility into permanent losses.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Oil’s fall from above $100 to the 80s, with energy accounting for 35-40% of recent CPI growth, gives Warsh room to avoid a disastrous pivot; Jonah’s closing call is that rate cuts are not dead.Markets barely sold off through full-blown war and a closed Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing the flows-over-fundamentals regime, while SpaceX’s 4% float makes its August/September unlocks a key risk window.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn argues that post-COVID volatility is pushing consumers toward second-order event trades and cross-asset exposure, making perps the instrument for “the perpification of everything.”Ostium is positioning as a broker layer that puts existing global markets on chain rather than rebuilding exchange infrastructure, while its traders’ early stagflation positioning highlights both signal quality and sharp P&L risk.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Hyperliquid is moving beyond crypto speculation as trade XYZ reached 2% of global crude volumes, while token dispersion makes revenue and growth more relevant than broad beta exposure.Perpetuals may attract flat-price commodity trading and 24/7 venues offer a claimed 35% revenue lift, but dated futures, institutional hedging, DeFi security, and Washington’s regulatory decisions remain key adoption constraints.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Avi sees Bitcoin’s failed breakdown and move above 74 as evidence that sellers are exhausted, with 69 as the failed-breakout risk level and 85 as the near-term target.The Iran shock may create a wall of worry rather than lasting contagion, while Hyperliquid’s weekend access and Sky’s buybacks offer differentiated stablecoin exposure as Circle faces high valuation and falling-yield risk.