Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gabe Stengel

Rogo’s model-era progression—from o1 Pro’s reliable search to Opus 4.5 handling junior finance work—supports a two-year race to redesign investment firms, not wait for better models.Its wedge is private-market dealmaking, where data rooms, DDQs, CRM and LP reporting still lack infrastructure, while high-value ideas can justify extreme token spend.The watchpoints are compaction, standardization, and whether incumbents move aggressively enough.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × John Kim

John Kim frames fundraising as a trust problem: desire minus fear drives action, while returns alone miss the motivations of most LPs and committees rarely make contrarian bets.His operating rules are to anchor scale to the first close, simplify the story, choose two of size, speed and terms, and build pipeline through conversion and bite size without sacrificing the differentiation that created the franchise.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Ben Horowitz

Ben Horowitz expects AI’s economic impact within 12–24 months because adoption needs no new infrastructure, while lower energy prices, less regulation, and a friendlier tax code strengthen the backdrop.AI-native companies such as Cursor can reach over $1B in revenue rapidly even as Salesforce and SAP remain difficult targets, but policy remains the tail risk and private markets must support companies toward a roughly $1B IPO threshold.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Karim Atiyeh

Ramp is moving beyond LLM-assisted work toward agents embedded in finance workflows, with a policy agent enforcing expense rules 24/7 and inferring undocumented policies from customer behavior.The shift from TPV to paid software accelerated growth because customers demanded more, but agent pricing remains unresolved as Ramp expands from cards into self-driving finances and evaluates which payment rails ultimately matter.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Peter Lacaillade

Private markets delivered 3-5% alpha over public equities for 25 years, while persistent top-manager performance can add 5%+.SCS underwrites 16-18% net IRR and 2.5x through pooled vehicles, targeting lower-middle-market businesses bought at 5-8x EBITDA and sold at 12-18x after operational growth.The retail wave bears watching: interval funds bid mid-90s versus sophisticated buyers at mid-80s, while quarterly liquidity may still mean being locked up for five, six years.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Ramtin Naimi

Abstract’s thesis is that multi-stage firms historically led most power-law seed rounds, while Naimi’s concentrated 5% from a $100M fund can exceed 15% from a $1.5B co-lead in look-through exposure.His sole-node Series A process claims highest-decile valuations and lowest dilution, but 4–5x markups and 30–40% IRR within months echo 2021, while AI application valuations remain undetermined.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Alan Waxman

Alan Waxman’s edge is unitizing risk by business quality, capital-structure attachment point, and documents, letting Sixth Street compare disparate deals across asset classes.With 450-500 monthly deals, 15-25 live themes, and a $30B TAL vehicle, the firm can migrate as themes decay over 12 to 36 months, but leverage-driven returns, AI labor disruption, and wealth-channel structure remain watchpoints.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Bill Gurley

Venture’s private-company backlog reflects roughly 1,000 firms raising more than $1 billion each, while mega-funds and paper marks weaken incentives to reset valuations.With IPOs closed, holding periods stretching toward 10-to-15 years, and annual dilution of 3%-6%, LP liquidity pressure and a potential reset remain the key catalysts.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Will Thorndike × Kevin Taweel × Irv Grousbeck

Asurion turned a 1995 Road Rescue buyout at roughly 4.5–5 times EBITDA into more than 5,275X MOIC, combining recurring revenue, rapid wireless-market growth, disciplined talent allocation, and a power ratio above 10X.Merrimac’s handset-insurance acquisition and vertical integration transformed unit economics, while buybacks amplified per-share compounding; Lock/Line synergies and the 2007 recapitalization created further value, alongside governance friction from competing sponsor agendas.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × John Zito

Apollo’s differentiated model combines third-party asset management with principal capital, using Athene’s more than $300 billion balance sheet and long-duration liabilities to finance infrastructure, compute, defense, and bespoke investment-grade credit.The opportunity expands if public and private assets become more liquid, but 6%-7% leverage costs challenge zero-rate-era return promises, making origination scale, precise credit boxes, and evergreen compounding key variables.